Members Daily Post: 09/06/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Catterick 

1.45 – Chapelli (2YO) 6/4  WON 6/4 

2.20 – Kibaar (micro TJC) H3 G1 11/4 S2 UP

3.30 – 

Rene Mathis (all hncps + 4yo+ hncps) G3 10/1 UP

Scoffaw (all hncps + 4yo+ hncps) 20/1 WON 20/1>10/1 

Ower Fly (m TJC) H3 I1 G1 10/1 S1 S4 S6 2nd 10/1>13/2

Our Charlie Brown (m dist) 14 7/1 UP

 

Musselburgh 

2.30 – Major Jumbo (all hncps) H3 9/1 2nd 7/1 

4.55 – Harbour Patrol (all hncps + m going) ES+  13/2 S3A

5.30 – Donelly’s Rainbow (all hncps + going)  ES+  10/1 S3A

 

Newmarket (July) 

2.35 – Eastern Impact (m dist) G3 10/3 2nd 

3.40 –

Quloob (m age) w2 14,30 5/1 

Soldier In Action (m dist move) I3 20/1 

5.25 – Aclimatise (m dist move) w2 H3 G3 3/1 S5

 

Beverley 

5.00 – Vigee Le Brun (all hncps + 4yo+, + m age) ES+ G3 9/1 S3A

 

Haydock 

4.35 – 

Calder Prince (4yo+ 5 yrs, all hncps) ES+ I1 G3 13/2 S2 S3A# S6

Mickey (4yo+ 5 yrs + all hncps+ m TJC) I3 G3 11/2 

Summerghand (m TJC + age) w1 H1 5/1 

 

Lingfield

7.20 – Tai Hang Dragon (all hncps) 6/1 

 

JUMPS

Stratford

6.35 – 

Imperial Prince (all hncps + hncp c + m TJC) w1 ES+ H3 I1 3/1 S3A#

KK Lexion (m class) 30 I3 10/1 S5 

7.05 – Rossetti (hncp h + m dist) I3 8/1  S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP)

7.35 – Wadswick Court (hncp c + m TJC) w2 14,30  I1 11/2 S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP)

8.35 – 

Buachaill Alainn (hncp c + m TJC) w1 14,30 H1 9/2 

Wuff (m class) 30 I1 9/1 S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP)

Gorsky Island (m class) 30 H3 4/1 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

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Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 11/130,41p, +1)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +101.5)

Nothing today… strange for a Saturday but nothing on this page is tempting me in at the prices really and there isn’t much point tipping for the sake of it. I haven’t really looked through Stratford after yesterday’s Hunter Chase debacle, where they appear to have over watered and the ground was reported to be riding soft. I’m guessing as to what it will be today, but those who want decent summer ground ‘could’ be in trouble. 

 

Recent Tips

(running total, from 07/06/18: 2/6,2p, +11..5) 

3.15 Bev – Kodyanna 11/2 WON 11/2>4/1 (built on clear promise LTO when mentally green, GF clearly no problem which was the question, and up against some decent ones, has won that a shade cosily  and suspect better at 6f. Best note those who finished ahead of her at Notts, GOSPEL and VENA D’AMORE…it was soft that day, they may appreciate better ground or pop up in nurseries or better when softer in autumn?) 

3.25 Hayd- Blue De Vega 14/1 UP.. a level too high I think and does definitely need 6f+, or a proper cavalry charge over 5f in a handicap, still finish. Some minor promise. 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

Paddy Brennan (14/1<)

8.35 Strat- Gorsky Island

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

6.35 Strat- Allelu Alleluja / Princeton Royal

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Ah, well I got Suitcase N Taxi completely wrong and on reflection thought about his chance all wrong. I probably owe you an apology for the write up- I usually try and keep to positives as to a horse’s chance to ensure you are not talked out of a bet on my say so. I failed on that front spectacularly and I know there will be some of you who didn’t have a penny on due to what I wrote. If I hadn’t have written anything or just stuck to a few positives, even if I didn’t tip him, you may have had a nibble. So, I’ll do my best to just highlight any positives, especially if I don’t tip them, and will steer away from any subjective negatives. There was plenty I could improve on with that effort… this is all said with hindsight but I know what I did wrong yesterday morning… I thought the fav may be unbeatable (but then running a few times in short space of time can lead to a bow out/lack of finishing kick eventually, however easily they appear to win) and there were a few others of interest… looked an ok race. I should have looked solely with purpose of making a case for him, at the odds but instead searched for reasons not to back him. Instead…

-double figure price
-unexposed over 5f…do NOT read it as a negative (which I did), given only his second try over it, and as you point out it was at a stiff track so his stamina may come to fore..think I saw that he’d won here over 6f and thought it may be too sharp even here, but should have marked up track form
-handicap mark was fine/below last win
-horse in form, 3rd run of season, could now be cherry ripe
-trainer in red hot form, and better form when horse last seen
-Allan back on
-likely to run his race
-option of EW, given fear of others. At least mentioning that as an option.

The stats are building up since mid April or so, and maybe in time it will just be a case of setting up a separate bank and having something on all of them with the 3 runs and you’re out/stop at a winner. And from there deciding if you/I want more on etc. Given I will generally be tipping unexposed ones, or if exposed then I must like their handicap mark/think coming to boil/about to run in ideal conditions, it makes sense for that approach to work.

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

36 Comments

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  • One winner – Ziarah at 6/1- and one NR left us 1pt down today. Very close to three winners with Teepee Time 16/1 SP & My Fantasea 8/1 just edged out close home. Fine margins!

    Also 1pt down for the week.

    There is an AW card at Wolves on Sunday but it’s all Arab races for which I have no stats, so the next meetings will be at Chelmsford and Kempton on Wednesday. Back Tuesday with qualifiers.

    Ken McKenzie 08/06/18 8:41 PM Reply


  • I’ve had at least 4 horses today beaten by a neck or less,fine margins indeed mate

    christopher JONES 08/06/18 9:16 PM Reply


  • Would someone mind reminding me what the criteria for the handicap chase system starting point is in test zone please?

    Francis 08/06/18 9:43 PM Reply


    • I forget where I put the research,maybe in the research link somewhere but in effect looks at LTO hncp chase winners that ran in last 20 days or so from memory. Not sure if a class /distance criteria I forget. At time of research it was 30% win and 50% win/place from a decent sample. Not to be backed systematically as plenty are not a value price, but a decent ‘way in’ before looking at them/race more closely.

      Josh 08/06/18 10:08 PM Reply


      • Thanks Josh. Yes – up to 2m5f looks best historically, although been opposite to date this year.

        Francis 08/06/18 10:26 PM Reply


        • Ah, criteria…
          C3,4,5
          Age 4-9
          0-2 hncp chase wins
          won LTO
          Ran 1-20 days ago

          267/910,452 places, +15 SP, +73 BFSP since 2013, AE is only 1.01 (hence ‘starting point’)

          2018: 16/56,25p, +11 BFSP (so keeping in line with other years so far. Certainly is a decent way in, just judging which ones are still value, esp at top end)

          Josh

          Josh 09/06/18 8:13 AM Reply


          • Do you have a record of the full dataset to quantify the LLR (longest losing run), Josh?

            chrisrees 09/06/18 10:36 AM Reply


            • according to HRB, since start 2013… hope this reads ok, just copied/paste… losing sequence on left, how many times it occurs on right…

              1 54
              2 38
              3 28
              4 21
              5 11
              6 9
              7 10
              8 4
              9 2
              10 2
              11 3
              12 1
              15 2
              21 1

              Josh 09/06/18 1:19 PM Reply


              • Thanks. That 21 is a bit of a tester. Otherwise manageable, backing them all to a staking plan and an average SP of 7/2, perhaps?

                chrisrees 09/06/18 2:49 PM Reply


                • oh I wouldn’t touch it backing them systematically given the AE is 1.01, I prefer the AE at SP to be a fair chunk higher than that. Wasn’t researched to back them all, more a way in knowing the underlying numbers/SRs. The profit will simply be down to the luck of a big priced winner or two.
                  That’s betting, losing run of 21 is nothing really is it? That’s with a win SR of 30% and is in line with around what you expect once every 1000 bets, so that’s bang there. Most of my SRs between 10-20%,so best be prepared for a sterner test than that haha.
                  Josh

                  Josh 09/06/18 2:58 PM Reply


                  • Context is all, Josh 🙂
                    We would be backing lto out winners @ 30%SR (almost the equivalent of favs.) but getting higher prices on average, it seems, so a completely different scenario from backing your selections with low strike rates. If you could email me the whole file I’ll undertake a feasibility study, as this is quite an attractive proposition as a long term earner for us, but as you say, we’ll see.

                    chrisrees 09/06/18 5:47 PM Reply


  • Do feel PJ would have got Dominating home today and if he didn’t miss the break Mutafallet would have placed at least but we’ve been on the right side of these flips often enough.
    Last Page Haydock Saturday 17:10 1pt e/w Price taken 7/1
    Our Little Pony Beverley Saturday 18:10 1pt e/w Price taken 10/1
    Make Music Lingfield Saturday 19:20 1pt e/w Price taken 12/1 (has been tipped up elsewhere but still 10-11/1 in places available)
    All Set To Go Stratford Saturday 19:05 1pt e/w Price taken 11-12/1 (one bookie paying 16/1)

    Nick Mazur 08/06/18 11:16 PM Reply


    • Yankee fits nicely.

      Tips – 2.45 Cur, Crystal Icon – 124 rated hurdler in a 6F turf handicap. Not something you see every day. 1 point each way at 16/1.
      I am also laying Blue De Vega, 3.25 HP. I see this as a prep for the Wokingham at Royal Ascot. This horse is a 6F horse.

      Robbie McNamara watch – a 40/1 second and 2 losers yesterday. Only one runner today in the 2.45 Cur, Power of Ten around 33/1.

      Good Luck.

      martin colwell 09/06/18 11:44 AM Reply


    • Brilliant tipping again Nick.

      Well done mate

      Jim 09/06/18 7:24 PM Reply


    • Well I suppose as far as 15 minutes go that wasn’t a terrible one! Just about recovered from being pissed off about the jockey switch on Our Little Pony.

      Nick Mazur 09/06/18 7:25 PM Reply


      • Would’ve been placed at least mate!!

        Jim 09/06/18 7:26 PM Reply


        • Well it showed it wasn’t there to win and one of the large reasons I tipped it was given the eye-catching jockey booking but I guess we can’t do anything about those things. Certainly will keep an eye on that one for next time.

          Nick Mazur 09/06/18 7:29 PM Reply


      • Well done yet again Nick -)

        Andrew 09/06/18 7:59 PM Reply


  • todays qualifiers.
    Catterick 3-30. Our Charlie Brown 8-1 bv
    Newmarket 3-40.Mark Hopkins 14-1 bv
    Haydock 4-35. Mostahel 11-1 bv

    martin whittle 09/06/18 1:14 AM Reply


  • I didn’t get a chance to post yesterday afternoon, but thanks for the through the card at Goodwood Josh. I did have a squizz through your picks. Somehow managed to win 4 out of 6 with yours and Chris selections plus a couple of system bets, so had a cracking evening. Unfortunately had the wife with me who pocketed most of the winnings, but it’ll keep me in the good books for a while 🙂

    James P 09/06/18 8:08 AM Reply


    • Good stuff James, yep a good use of the across the board efforts, as always 2 winners from such efforts usually makes the day from my through the card, but I had to wait for the last to find one at 4s and 33/1 3rd. Could have been worse, a couple of seconds, and not much else to cheer. The Candy horse got a poor ride from out the back off a slow pace/leaders didn’t come back, unless he is just slow/no turn of gear/needs even further. He’s in the tracker. Glad you had a good time, you’d take 4/6 on any trip to races! Well done. And to Chris. Sounds like you ignored my musings on the shorty and went with his Fry pick hopefully!
      Yep I think you will, she may even let you go again some day haha
      Josh

      Josh 09/06/18 8:17 AM Reply


  • Beverley 4.25 Bit Of A Quirke 3 points win

    Returns to the scene of his 2 career wins with a handicap mark 3 below his last win.
    At a course which suits front running BOAQ from stall 5 looks most likely to take them along here and I think the plan will be to make every post a winning one and expect to see a charge to the front very early.
    The booking of Andrew Mullen interests me as he has only been riding Rickyroadboy for this trainer this season and they have combined to win 3 from 6 and 2 places and rose in the ratings from 51 to 71.

    Word of warning as my record from the start of April for posting on here has been dire with 12.6 points loss and 0 horses winning their race.

    Chris Mcilfatrick 09/06/18 9:23 AM Reply


    • Thanks Chris I followed you in on that one. Top class mate

      jamie2255 09/06/18 4:32 PM Reply


      • Thanks Jamie2255 Nice when they deliver on what you envisage.

        Chris Mcilfatrick 09/06/18 5:11 PM Reply


  • For the followers of LTO LOSERS there are 3 out today. Josh has highlighted Kodyanna already the other 2 are Bahuta Acha – (Haydock, 17:10) and La Sioux – (Beverley, 17:00).
    BA is on his 3rd run out from when Josh tipped it but went in nto at 25s prior to us tracking them currently 16/1. Up against one of Nicks picks a nice rev fc?
    LS is on his 2nd outing since tipped 1st time out won at 5/2 so in theory it has paid for itself and made us a profit albeit a small one currently 9/2 so you might want to have a go again to increase profits.
    Do as you see fit I am currently +43 BOG on following so will have a 1/2 pt ew on BA and a 1/2 pt win on LS.

    Hope you all have a successful day.

    Mike

    mickeydee 09/06/18 10:05 AM Reply


    • Good stuff Mike, I’ll just be stopping at a winner for my own reporting purposes but no harm in following those that have won, within the 3 strikes and you’re out.. suspect some of them will follow up again within that time and may be value still etc. GL
      Josh

      Josh 09/06/18 1:23 PM Reply


    • LTO LOSERS
      That was close Bahuta Acha 2nd at 16s BOG 12s SP a wee profit, paid for La Sioux loss.

      Kodyanna WON 7s BOG. Nice one Josh.

      Mike

      mickeydee 09/06/18 6:14 PM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Musselburgh
    2.30 Dark Shot
    4.20 Great Fighter
    4.55 Lotara
    Newmarket
    3.40 Golden Wolf
    Haydock
    4.35 Reputation

    colin leafe 09/06/18 10:39 AM Reply


  • PAULS BETS. 4.35 haydock summerghand 1 point each way after yesterday +4.8 points good luck

    paul bailey 09/06/18 11:22 AM Reply


  • Looks like the bookies have caught up with the Dascombe route to profit.His handicappers look really poor value for not having achieved a lot.De Sousa may sneak it from the front on Calder Prince but again no value there

    gearoid180468 09/06/18 11:59 AM Reply


  • Hi, sorry they are late.

    14:30 Musselburgh
    COPPER KNIGHT 10/1 gen 1pt ew
    Class 2 events in May/June are the time to catch this horse which has won 3 times from 4 races under those conditions. Will strip fitter after its seasonal debut last time out (won 2nd time out last year) and with only 15 runs is a lot less exposed than many of these. The trainer is in great form too and the 10/1 makes plenty of appeal.
    EL ASTRONAUTE 5/1 2pt win
    A horse that hardly ever runs a bad race and if he can reproduce his last run when just touched off when running off the same mark looks good value.

    14:35 Newmarket
    EASTERN IMPACT 10/3 gen 2pt win
    Course and distance winner Eastern Impact is the one to be with here for R.Fahey. R.Moore takes the ride that is a tip in itself. This horse has won off a mark of 112 been tumbling down the weights goes off 94 today.
    GUNMETAL 11/2 bfr 1pt ew
    This horses debut winning run for the Barron stable last time out suggests he’s improved this ex Charlie Hills horse and Ben Curtis takes the ride again. Gunmetal has also won at this course when winning by nearly 3 lengths from a horse than won its next race. Looks like there’s much more to come.

    17:10 Haydock
    LAST PAGE 7/2 gen 2pt win
    SDS is in tip top form here and eyecatching as a booking for this one. The step down in class and decent draw could see this one go in at a nice looking 7/2.
    LORD OF THE GLEN 13/2 gen 1pt ew#
    Lord Of The Glen ran second to Kodtime and York lto in a Class 3 over 5f in a quick time,, looks to have a decent chance of taking this Class 4 running off only a pound higher mark.

    Good luck with whatever you back today!

    Stewart 09/06/18 1:16 PM Reply


  • One for you layers from the generous Paddy Power i do not think so
    Timed 13.35
    Noticed in the paper that they are offering Money Back as a free bet on all losers if
    Reverend Jacobs wins 8/13 on at the moment,what do they know,that it will not win!!!

    colin leafe 09/06/18 1:37 PM Reply


  • Nowhere near Scoffaw, 20s?10s, hopefully some may have had a go, but I’ve stared again for a while after and I still can’t get myself into place to have tipped him, even knowing he’s now won! Maybe I’ll look again and need to watch that York run back. Same Owen couldn’t hang on, only one I backed in that race, on the nose. Strategies could do with a nice priced one holding on/going one place better.

    Josh 09/06/18 3:44 PM Reply


    • I wasn’t on him but his proximity form is ok and when you click on direction his stats suggest value. Kicking myself aswel but I did have the 2nd place .

      jamie2255 09/06/18 4:26 PM Reply


      • I’ll have a proper look later. No doubt missed something/didn’t think about x, always something to learn and take away from 20s shots. And my aversion to under 6s shots could have found two. Ah.

        Josh 09/06/18 4:48 PM Reply


  • Nick saving the best until last. Wallop X2. Well done. And well done Chris, a 12 point loss is nothing and gone in one fell swoop. A few nice ones dotted around. Go Team RTP 🙂

    Josh 09/06/18 7:27 PM Reply


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