Members Daily Post: 08/06/18 (comp/+Goodwood Notes)

Goodwood ‘through the card’ , Tips x2,(+write ups/musings) Section 1 (x2), recent tips, test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Carlisle

1.30 – Barasti Dancer (2YO) 13/2 

3.30 – 

Stormin Tom (micro TJC) 14 H3 7/1 UP

Kensington Star (m class) ES+H1 I1 G1 7/2 S1 S3A# S4  UP

5.00- New Abbey Angel (m TJC) I3 12/1 UP

 

Brighton

3.40 – 

Roy Rocket (all hncps) H3 I3 4/1 3rd 

Kaths Legacy (m TJC) 14 I1 G3 7/1 S2 S6  2nd (agonising)

Art of Swing (m going) H3 6/1  UP

 

Goodwood

7.40 – Pretty Jewel (m age) w2 w114,30 H1 I1 G1 11/4 S1 S4  WON 11/4>6/4 

 

Haydock

6.15 – Thorntoun Care (all hncps) I1 7/1 S6 3rd 9/2 

9.10 – Lamloon (m TJC/age) H1 I1 G1 13/8 S1 S4 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 11/130,41p, +1)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +101.5)

NOTES

3.30 Carl- Stormin Tom – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen)  UP, poor, could have led but didn’t, not that it made a difference I don’t think, this is possibly just a level too high for him, maybe one to watch when dropped slightly in grade and back at Ripon. 

3.40 Bright – Kaths Legacy – 1 point win – 15/2 (gen) 2nd 11/2, no issues there, agony, doubt will be 15/2 next time..can’t blame the jockey as in a decent pos, moved out early enough and got after early enough I think, closing all the way to the line from one who sadly didn’t stop. A few strides further and another welcome winner. An annoying 10 minutes, what with Nick’s throwing away victory also, late change of jockey costing that maybe, as Fanning isn’t the strongest in a finish if horse needs persuading. PJ or SDS hang on there I feel. 

 

 

Stormin Tom… a more exposed one to kick of the day, from the in form yard of Tim Easterby. I was lured in at the price because I think he will get an easy lead here, or in any case have that option. I don’t think anyone else will go on, if he adopts his usual tactics. Having said that plenty in here drop in class and plenty don’t look in the best of form, and sometimes to spark a horse up you will try new tactics, so maybe something else may decide to bast off in the hope of getting their mount interested. But, it’s rather hard to predict that (unless one is in 1st time headgear and/or a trip move/the jockey likes to get on with it) so I’m going on what we know. The horse has won at C4 level although not 6k+ C4, he stays further, he arrives in form, and he has a great attitude. He is a trier and he won’t lack for effort here. I thought RR may be able to dictate and then kick on when she chooses, hopefully taking a couple of lengths out of them and holding on. He has nothing on his back here, 11-16lb less on plenty of these. That may be no bad thing over this trip, up this hill. He is 2/5,3p in handicaps with 8-7 on his back (which he is after the claim) and 2/7,3p in June handicaps. He should be cheery ripe now and there was no harm in losing to the horse that beat him LTO- it was a Fahey hotpot who beat one of my horses, Really Super, at Nottingham… it looked like he’d just jumped in at the furlong poll. No surprise he followed up again, but ST was best of the rest. I thought he looked solid in a race where plenty of these have a few questions and a few do just look out of form. Plenty are dropping in class which concerns me, but at this price, given the form of the horse, trainer, his attitude, and the ‘pace’ angle, I couldn’t resist. 

He should be the one they have to pass…and I am starting to look at the forecast options (for fun) when I think one may get an easy lead…he will win hopefully, or he could get another 2nd to his name… I have backed Kensington Star with my system bank, and 7/2 is just about ok for me… around my minimum price for a system bet, but you have to play that horse by horse. I do think those under this price will generally break even at best, as I suspect many are put in at the price they should be, with the odd exception. Anyway, he has 3x top rated numbers next to him, he drops in class here, is in form, and stays well. I won’t be shocked if he overhauls the tip late on, and with any luck they are both battling it out come the line, with RR having kicked just at the right time, KS not quite getting there!  I do think these two look the most interesting at the odds. 

Kaths Legacy... I have a good feeling about this one and really hope some money comes. When there is a fitness question over the horse I should really want to see that the trainer is in form and that they have a decent enough record with horses returning after a break. Both boxes are ticked on that front. (there is the odd exception- jumps handicap h debut say- but in that scenario I want a big price, 14s+) Indeed Hughes, when teaming up with Kelly, is 4/24,6p on turf handicappers returning after 60+ days. The horse has also won after a break for his old trainer and I found it of interest that he brings her back to Brighton for this first run. Last September she was a close enough 3rd over CD, in a class 4, off OR 72. She runs in a C6 here today off 62. I have yet to see any evidence really that she stays further than 10f and as such you can put a line through most of her runs since that day. She went well for a long way LTO, before fading. There is also a lack of pace in here, on paper, and the horse has raced prominently before. I really hope Kelly tries to make all and play catch me if you can. That isn’t an impossible expectation here. In any case, at 15/2, in another race where plenty have questions, there was enough there for me to go on. This one isn’t sure to lead, unlike the one above, so I won’t muse on any fun reverse forecast options. I will be disciplined on such musings…assured front runner who should run their race + main dangers etc. 

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Elsewhere… Notebook..there are two recent tips below, who I don’t really fancy to tip, and I’m not sure I even fancy for 1/4 points but we shall see how that goes! I think Suitcase N Taxi needs 6f to be seen to his best and in any case he takes on two or three in decent form here, including a 4/7 shot who bar an accident, should be winning again. But the yard is in form as we know, as is the horse. I just think he needs a stiffer test of stamina and he also won’t get an easy lead here, not without doing too much…which is never a bad legal tactic in order to get the mark down when you drop out tamely in the last furlong or so! I’ll wait for him to go back up to 6f, small enough field, easy lead assured and probably at a track with more of a bend. 

Buxted Dream…well I want to wait for a return to softer ground, and Spencer jumps off here onto the Simcock horse. I’m pretty sure he’d have had the choice, which may say something as to the chances of his mount, or not. But in any case he clearly didn’t want to ride him here. It could be that he does just want a small field, which is something to consider, and this is smaller than he has faced in recent runs. BUT, I also can’t help ignore the fact that the five above him in the market arrive in much better form, as do a couple of others. I’m sure he will show himself to be well handicapped at some point but I’m not sure it will be today, and he showed nothing LTO. One for change maybe, but I can more than live with not tipping him for 1 point, if he does indeed somehow bounce back here. I should add in this race…the Lacemaker should get an easy lead I think and he should be the one to pass late on… so use that pace info as you please. 

Magical Effect... (late addition, 09.32) I missed him in my tracker last night, I saw him there as I’d added him in, but for some reason hadn’t thought I’d tipped him! In any case I did look…he is running ok, but 11/2 wasn’t a big enough price to tempt me in here, especially as Ruth’s are hit and miss again…he could go close, and it’s his final run of the three strikes and you’re out… he does drop back in class and is up in trip, which may suit, so no forlorn hope. Maybe he’ll overturn Lamloon later on! 

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What else…well, I think Lamloon will make all and probably stay there in the 9.10, for S1 and S4, however he is far too short for me to back him on the nose… the question then is whether to include him in any muggy multiples, for fun money! If you also think Kensington Star is short enough, maybe a 8.62/1 double on the pair of them may give you some fun. Or indeed including him in any other bets you may be pondering. I rarely do multiples as it rarely works out, but you can use those thoughts in any way you please. 

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That’s the lot for today. The brain is a tad fried to dive into a 5f sprint handicap test today. Acclaim The Nation ran ok yesterday, leading but finding one too good…still, I see one of you got up the forecast, so good work.

GL with any bets. 

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Recent Tips/Eye-catchers

(running total, from 07/06/18: 0/1,0p, -1) 

running total for backing blind ‘3 strikes and you’re out/stop at a winner’ for recent tips, listed below. I will use these as a ‘way in’ to decide if I wish to elevate any to ‘tips’ above. I would not advise simply backing them all as yet although from mid April I think that approach may be on around +60-70 points to morning odds. 

2.00 Carl- Suitcase N Taxi WON 11/1>7/1 (damn, or, just back them blind 🙂 got that wrong) 

3.10 Bright- Buxted Dream UP

9.10 Hayd- Magical Effect (late addition!) 

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Re-cap… a welcome winner yesterday who was smashed off the boards, which was no surprise given connections/his profile. He ticked plenty of boxes and is just the sort of flat horse/criteria I need to be focussing on. Plenty to take away from that moving forwards. I have been hovering around 0 for an age, and I do need to kick on, plenty of work to do. 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat

R Fell

7.25 Hayd- Presidential  3/1 

9.10 Hayd – Club Wexford 9/2 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

From yesterday’s post…Notebook report HERE>>>

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Tipping…Push Notifications...there is a notifications option when first landing on the site I think. I so send ‘push notifications’ at certain points when updating a members post…when Section 1 is first done, when I tip, and when a post is ‘complete’ being the main three occasions. I think if you clear your ‘cache’ then there is a chance that this option will come up again, next time you land on the site, or indeed if you access it from another device for the first time. I am getting in the habit of tweeting when I post a tip, and trying to post them in one batch, so you only need to look once, between 8.30-9.15 on Monday-Friday.

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Goodwood... some through the card notes for James, a few of these look interesting enough to me, but as always it’s only a very brief look through a whole card in the context of what I would spend on one tipping race/section 2 say… (yes yes, caveats galore!) 

5.55 – Marble Bar – trainer in form/should come on for last run/buzz knocked out/ step up in trip and drop in class/some ok 2YO form in races which have produced winners. Is an open 3YO only handicap though!

6.30 – Emjayem– interesting at odds for another yard ‘in form’ ( I mean a geegeez green symbol as per key, whenever I use that terminology) … step up in trip interesting on second run for yard, well handicapped on old form if he could recapture it, and there are 4/5 who like to front run in this…probably an EW bet, as he is usually held up and will need luck, and the pace to collapse..which I thought was possible. I’d be surprised if something got an easy time on front end.

7.05 – Sky Eagle… ran in decent race LTO and his GG speed figure is miles ahead of anything in this, I also thought he may be in the right spot, close to the pace or if better than some of these, taking it up. May not stay but looks like he could improve for step up. A track side fav bet, or one for placepot/forecasts etc.

7.40 – Reckless Wave.. I can’t back the other three at the odds, and maybe one of the 3 year olds takes this, or the Williams horse goes on again, but up in weights/class and a small field, which put me off at prices a tad…anyway, I only mention this one as he’s the only front runner in the race, and that is always dangerous in a small field. 8s seemed harsh, esp as given that last run was first in 3 months. No doubt will be overhauled late on but I’d back him if at the races at the odds, just to see.

8.15 – Ellen Gates, the second and final ‘shortie’ but this one is clear top on GG also, and is drawn against the rail…ideal if they adopt front running tactics again..he won’t want to miss it though as will have a wall of horses in front. This step back up to 6 looks idea and I hope just keeps grinding away, getting a deserved win. The claim will help.

8.50 – Supernova… Simcock does well in maiden races at the track in last two years, (well, 1/3, he, Stoute and Balding the only trainers to have won maiden here in that period, although the rest haven’t sent many runners) and this looks like the choice of Spencer. You could have change on his other one at a monster price, as you never know!

Some method to my madness there, but as always, do go with your own thoughts to some degree as they are always the best winners.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

38 Responses

  1. AW racing from Wolves tomorrow. Qualifiers as follows:
    2.20 Nalaini 16/1 & Terri Rules 9/2
    2.50 Teepee Time 15/2 & Little Nosegay 14/1
    3.20 My Fantasea 8/1 & Omotesando 11/1
    4.20 Ziarah 6/1
    5.20 Final Attack 6/1 & Black Truffle 6/1

    1pt win each

    Good Luck

    1. threatening to fire into form, but much work to be done yet, I’ve been bobbing around 0 for most of the year on ‘the notes’, but I’ll get there. A classic Easterby clan gamble there I think, and I never have an issue when they are fairly easy to spot, or whether one may potentially be a set up. I do need to kick on.

      1. Josh, you are being overly harsh on your form.

        If you draw a line through the end of May then you have started June well. ROI is around 40% and if you performed every week like the last one that would be 350 ish points for the year.

        Yes it is making the stats fit by ignoring the run at the end of May but should still provide some context that things are truly improving

        1. hmm, I suppose but looking at the big picture and specifically the ‘notes’ tips, and it hasn’t been good enough as yet this year – there is some important context, not least the mental energy/effort during ‘Festival’ time, March/April and the number of big races in that period..and we did win +180 odd points in those crazy 6/7 weeks or so! I know services celebrating +45-100 points profit for the entire NH season 🙂

          But, just looking at the notes when I started with current model last Sept 1st, having been tinkering then… 2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75…. versus 2018: 11/128,40p, +3

          So, clearly I can do better on that front, as it hasn’t been good enough as yet, in isolation. The bigger tipping picture is just fine, but you have to strive for perfection and improvement, and there are clearly things I can do better. I am not out of form in terms of race reading or reading horses… I haven’t felt rusty or rubbish on that front as such, I think it’s more the final decision making, what I leave, what I don’t. My stats content across the board, which is the ‘way in’ for most Notes tips, finds enough winners in the 6/1+ (and 9/2+) that are ‘value’ compared to SP, so that isn’t an issue…it’s just that final refinement. But also maybe I should recognise that in the odds I play at/win SR, part of it is cyclical and I was due a ‘not going anywhere’ period, even if that has been for 6 months with ‘notes’! There is a case that I need to get to a place where I’m even more content missing some bigger priced winners, as in last couple of weeks maybe there was a case of throwing mud and hoping some of it stuck, which none of it did!

          Josh

  2. Robbie McNamara has his first runners for a while on Friday. They are all outsiders but Robbie needs winners to make his training operation pay. I will be on Robbie watch now through the summer and will report back on progress. Fridays runners are 5.15 Clo Analytical Mindset; 5.25 Cur Deep House; 6.20 Clo Epsilon Indi.

    1. 555 Unbridled Spirit up in trip, down in class
      630 Emjayem ran well here 6/16 off 76, shows he needs 6f lto on TC; now off 54.
      705 Shraaoh v. strong form here 07/16, ideal conditions on 2nd run for Fry.
      815 Ad Valorem Queen has 1st h’cap with SdS up; prob. unsuited by firm lto out, so check going has not dried.
      Have a great time in the evening sunshine.

      1. I’ve heard this am that Crystal King is trying in the last (not a race I’d be interested in) so it should not be running for a mark!

    2. Looks tough, good luck. in the 6.30 Oeil De Tigre won well LTO. Humble head is coming into form in the 7.05.

    3. I almost tipped up Incentive in the 18:30 but slight concerned on the ground. Plus there appears to be loads of pace on offer ans the race looked very competitive. Probably one race you don’t want to touch anything short in.

  3. Dominating Carlisle Friday 15:30 1pt e/w
    Munfallet Haydock Friday 19:25 1pt e/w
    Bridge Of Sighs Brighton Friday 15:40 1pt e/w

      1. keeping plugging away Martin, both you and Nick should have won there I feel. agonising when they hit front and look like winners only to get mugged again, esp by the one they passed!

  4. WORLD CUP
    Just some stats for the WC.
    Personally, I don’t bet on individual games the prices are too short but DRAWS and CORRECT SCORES have more value.
    Thought the following might be of interest based on the above D and CS.
    Result 2014 2010 2006
    0-0 5 6 5
    1-0 or 0-1 8 13 8
    2-1 8 3 5
    All draws 9 14 11
    (0-0,1-1,2-2)
    Strangely enough, a 1-2 scoreline gave only 8 results over 3 WC’s
    All above are for group matches only the R16, QF and SF didn’t show good trends.
    Hope some of this gives you an angle into some bets.
    My only bets so far are
    Germany v Brazil Final 12/1
    Germany 5/1
    Brazil 9/2

    Mike

    1. Gosh, the World Cup is an exposed market with lots of fun punters getting involved and bookies offers. The markets in World Cups should be approached with initial matches staring slowly and then becoming cagey at the final group match stage (or if in Argentina in 1978 just fiddled). At the next stage it becomes cagey again but opens up more QF onwards.
      A rule for backing draws, never take less than 11/4. You will always be sweating the result for 90 minutes plus.
      I will post up some World Cup bets on the free blog as we go.

      I currently play the South American football markets, not so exposed.

      Good luck.

    2. A couple of prices in the group stage games look good to me. Egypt to beat Russia at 10/3 & Serbia to beat Switzerland at 19/10, the double pays 12.5/1.

      Betfair are offering 175/1 on Brazil to reach the final, Columbia and Spain to reach the quarter finals & Croatia and Serbia to reach the last 16. Croatia have Argentina, Iceland and Nigeria in their group and Serbia have Brazil, Switzerland and Costa Rica in theirs so both have good chances of getting out. If Columbia qualify they are likely to face England or Belgium and if Spain qualify they will face an opponent from probably the weakest overall group (Group A). Brazil reaching the final is obviously a risk but at 175/1 I’ll pay to find out

      1. What about opposing Portugal in matches as the tournament progresses? Ronaldo is getting on now and has become injury prone. He carries this team and if hr is not on his game then they can be beaten,

        1. Yep, the draw against Morocco might be a nice bet too at around 3/1. Morocco are unbeaten in their last 18 games and whilst a lot of those games were against poor African sides, they also include wins over Ivory Coast, Egypt, South Korea, Slovakia, Serbia and a 4-0 against Nigeria. They may spring a surprise

  5. Josh

    LTO losers.
    Magical Effect is on its last chance.

    Magical Effect – (Haydock, 21:10)
    Race: Play Roulette At 188bet Casino Handicap11/2
    FTO 25/4 Catt Notes, NTO 11/05 Rip 5th, LTO 19/05 Thir 5th
    Timeform Just bubbling under without being beaten a long way in 3 runs this season and becoming more and more appealing as mark edges down. Best suited by a strong pace.

    Mike

    1. Ah yes, he is in my tracker and I did look at him, for some reason I’d forgotten I’d tipped him and he was just there as an ‘eye catcher’ ! Good job your memory/eyes are working better than mine. In any case, I did look at him and his price wasn’t big enough for me to tip, 11/2 or so… he is down in class and back up to 7f and he has been running ok, the trainer is a bit hot and cold again, more chilly at the moment, and I’m sure Lamloon may get a soft lead, and this one may need more of a gallop to aim at, although I won’t fall off my seat if he wins, if bouncing back to his best, not quite enough there to tempt me in at the odds, but a case could be made that he looks to have the best chance on paper of the three ‘recent tips’.
      cheers.

  6. COLINS BETS
    Carlise
    2.30 Me Before You
    Wolverhampton
    3.20 Attain
    Haydock
    6.15 Thorntoun Care
    6.15 Ravenhoe
    Goodwood
    6.30 Met By Moonlight

  7. Tips – 9.10 HP Groupie, some 25/1 about, 1 point each way. Has left the Hannon yard and is now with Tom Tate. Is a course and distance winner. Back from a lay off but the price reflects this. So far in June I am minus 6 points. Good luck.

  8. James! I’ve had a flick through the Goodwood card, do with the below as you please…

    5.55 – Marble Bar – trainer in form/should come on for last run/buzz knocked out/ step up in trip and drop in class/some ok 2YO form in races which have produced winners. Is an open 3YO only handicap though!

    6.30 – Emjayem- interesting at odds for another yard ‘in form’ ( I mean a geegeez green symbol as per key, whenever I use that terminology) … step up in trip interesting on second run for yard, well handicapped on old form if he could recapture it, and there are 4/5 who like to front run in this…probably an EW bet, as he is usually held up and will need luck, and the pace to collapse..which I thought was possible. I’d be surprised if something got an easy time on front end.

    7.05 – Sky Eagle… ran in decent race LTO and his GG speed figure is miles ahead of anything in this, I also thought he may be in the right spot, close to the pace or if better than some of these, taking it up. May not stay but looks like he could improve for step up. A track side fav bet, or one for placepot/forecasts etc.

    7.40 – Reckless Wave.. I can’t back the other three at the odds, and maybe one of the 3 year olds takes this, or the Williams horse goes on again, but up in weights/class and a small field, which put me off at prices a tad…anyway, I only mention this one as he’s the only front runner in the race, and that is always dangerous in a small field. 8s seemed harsh, esp as given that last run was first in 3 months. No doubt will be overhauled late on but I’d back him if at the races at the odds, just to see.

    8.15 – Ellen Gates, the second and final ‘shortie’ but this one is clear top on GG also, and is drawn against the rail…ideal if they adopt front running tactics again..he won’t want to miss it though as will have a wall of horses in front. This step back up to 6 looks idea and I hope just keeps grinding away, getting a deserved win. The claim will help.

    8.50 – Supernova… Simcock does well in maiden races at the track in last two years, (well, 1/3, he, Stoute and Balding the only trainers to have won maiden here in that period, although the rest haven’t sent many runners) and this looks like the choice of Spencer. You could have change on his other one at a monster price, as you never know!

    Some method to my madness there, but as always, do go with your own thoughts to some degree as they are always the best winners.

  9. Love the site will start putting my selections up each day all selections 1 point each way will try to keep to 4/1 and above . Today’s selection danzay 5.55 goodwood 9/2 available good luck

  10. Hi Josh
    Suitcase N Taxi was 3lb lower than when it last won at Carlisle which as a stiff up hill finish,it also had a win over 5 furlong at Pontefract which is another stiff up hill finish and the final positive for me David Allen was back in the plate.
    On this evidence did have £20 on the nose,so Thank you.

    Buxted Dream back below his mark when winning over CD in the summer,it as been backed this morning and doubt if my £20 made any difference,and for Jamie Spencer not ridding it could be that he has an agreement to ride for the owners or the horse needs a stronger jockey and that is why Luke Morris is on board.

    1. Good stuff Colin, I’m glad your eyes were working on him better than mind.
      I believe he won over 6f at Ponte…. this is all said with hindsight but I know what I did wrong this morning… I thought the fav may be unbeatable (but then running a few times in short space of time can lead to a bow out/lack of finishing kick eventually, however easily they appear to win) and there were a few others of interest… looked an ok race. I should have looked solely with purpose of making a case for him, at the odds…
      -double figure price
      -unexposed over 5f…do NOT read it as a negative (which I did), given only his second try over it, and as you point out it was at a stiff track so his stamina may come to fore..think I saw that he’d won here over 6f and thought it may be too sharp even here, but should have marked up track form
      -handicap mark was fine/below last win
      -horse in form, 3rd run of season, could now be cherry ripe
      -trainer in red hot form, and better form than when horse last seen
      -Allan back on
      -likely to run his race
      -option of EW, given fear of others. At least mentioning that as an option.

      I will avoid in future making any negative comments as to those I don’t elevate to tips, as that may have dissuaded some from even having a small nibble, which isn’t how it should be done. I either don’t tip them or just mention any positives and leave others to make up own mind if I don’t tip. I have avoided 5 or so recent LTO winners that lost again, through similar thinking maybe, but none at that price range in truth- most of those discarded on price as 5s<. The stats are building up since mid April or so, and maybe in time it will just be a case of setting up a separate bank and having something on all of them with the 3 runs and you're out/stop at a winner. And from there deciding if you/I want more on etc. Given I will generally be tipping unexposed ones, or if exposed then I must like their handicap mark/think coming to boil/about to run in ideal conditions, it makes sense for that approach to work Glad you had a go, only wish I'd excused even some minor confidence!! An amateur at times, being put off by a shortie and finding reasons not to back him, rather than the more positive approach of finding reasons to back him, of which that list above suggests there were plenty! always learning. Josh

      1. was going to put up those findings in the morning had to go out and it slipped my mind,will see if Luke makes a difference on Buxted Dream with his hustle and bustle style,and with 3lb lower than its last win here over CD.

        1. No doubt he’ll bolt up, maybe even all three, just to rub my nose in it haha. In any case, more positives than negatives as we move forwards.

    1. do you not devour section 4 on a daily basis Anthony?? Haha 🙂 It’s the first link in there today, with an expanded section/discussion on it yesterday. 40 odd horses in there since May 1st. From now on you can of course just add them yourself if you wish from Section 2 when tipped. I am tracking them all, so is Mike in comments, so in theory I won’t miss listing them as above, but may obviously miss tipping the buggers!!

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