Members Daily Post: 06/06/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Hamilton

3.00 –

A Hawraa (all hncps + micro class move) 7/1 UP

Ruler Of The Nile (m dist move) I3 20/1 UP

4.00 – Novelty Seeker (all hncps) w2 25/1

4.30 –

Inexes (m dist) H1 I3 11/4 S2 

Pomme De Terre (m dist) I3 12/1

5.00 – Perfect Words (class m) 25/1

 

Wetherby 

No stats profile. 

 

JUMPS

Uttoxeter

1.40 – Excellent Team (micro TJC / Dist) ES+ H3 I3 5/2 WON 5/2>9/4 

4.40 –  Troika Steppes (hncp c) 9/1

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 10/126,38p, -5)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +101.5)

NOTES

3.10 Uttox – Psychocandy– 1 point win – 15/2 (bet365) 7/1 (gen) 2nd 5/1

No excuses there, i think it’s time to call it a day with her. She will no doubt win at some point but probably won’t be much of a price NTO. The winner has had a bit in hand but you’d have to raide some doubts about her attitude now, often finishing with a rattle. Don’t think anything jockey could have done to change that result, winner idled and made winning margin closer than would have been. Still, nice to call a 22/1 or so forecast right, in early odds, or 15/1 SFC. Hopefully you may have had a nibble or a saver on winner as below. Or both! 

(price going, will have to be declared at 6/1 when she bolts up, still widely available as of 09.35) 

 

I may fall off my seat if one of the top three in the market doesn’t win this race. I have had a cover bet on Posh Totty WON at 7/2, to cover my stake on the selection…mainly as I think Bryony will get the lead here and play catch me if you can. She drops in trip slightly which will help and she was second to a horse that won NTO on her last start. Even though she is 11 she is lightly raced under rules and is holding her form, and I can’t say the handicapper has her. It could well be a 1-2 in a certain order with the selection! (that never works out when I say it – oh, i got one right! ) I am taking on the Skelton horse who clearly could be another of theirs that glides past them all but that was a really poor race LTO, he is usually held up, they will go a pace here and it is a much larger field. Clearly he could bolt up again but i’ll take a chance that he doesn’t.

Psychocandy was a tip at Ludlow over hurdles for one reason or another- mainly a return to better ground…that didn’t go to plan when I mis-read the weather and it went rather soft! She has since been chasing and really, for an unexposed chaser at a price, she ticks all the boxes I want, or should be looking for. Firstly she arrives in form, as does her trainer who is red hot again. She races prominently enough and her jumping was better at Warwick, although with the odd error. But when she was good, she was good. She does three things different here…after her last start I said, possibly in the comments/post race notes/my own head, I forget which, that i’d like to see her drop back into a C5 and drop in trip slightly. Well, she does both today. She also gets a first time tongue tie which may help her see out her race better. Barring an accident I can’t see her being far away her. She has yet to win but I don’t think that’s an attitude problem. The form of her last race was also boosted by the winner, who went in again yesterday at Bangor, a shade cosily again to my eye, staying on well. (another for Ben Poster over 3m or further in handicaps…refer to the ‘fact sheet’ in the research link for that one, he seems to ride staying trips very well and is a fine judge of pace, not that I backed that winner yesterday at 4s) She should track the pace in second/third and have no excuses and with any luck is better handicapped that Posh Totty. IF the Skelton horse finds this too hot/runs in to trouble, with any luck these two have it between them.

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Elsewhere, Novelty Seeker is one for the tracker… he is 25/1 today and comes up against two at the top of the market who bolted up LTO. I concluded i’d be surprised if one didn’t win this. NS is lightly raced for his age and has had his problems. He drops in class from LTO which was his first run in an age, and he didn’t run too badly to a point. You would like to have seen more but maybe Chester didn’t suit. His form at York when last seen before this season was solid and if he recaptures that one day, he will be winning again at some point this season. Hopefully not today, although I may throw a timid £2.50 at him on the machine, just in case. It would be a painful one but happy not to tip him. You’d like to see a bit more and this is a deep race given the two at the top.

Inner Circle may be worth some mild support for the Fell angle below, at 8/1. He is only 4 and is running well, moving up to 8f here. He does have stamina to prove- not totally convincing in runs last year- but he is older now and could have strengthened up. He may appreciate a big field/the pace of the race. He also has class to prove and there is a niggle that he isn’t well handicapped, but more an unknown and again, given his age, it’s hard to conclude he can’t win from this mark. I think due to those unknowns I wanted a bigger price to become a tip and maybe I need to be more strict with this type, especially in a big field, wanting 12s+ . Clearly he’ll now bolt up making 8s look a big price, that’s the way it’s going at the moment. There are 4 places for the EW players and if he sees this trip out, he should be thereabouts.

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This is the first day i’ve had in a while where I will be reflecting, all day, on my own recent performance and trying to look at things I could be doing better. That will generally involve going through my tips, and those winners at good prices within the daily content that I haven’t tipped. There are things I can be doing better and I have as yet never been good at the jumps ‘notes’ horses, there is work to do there. There  are plenty of positives, not least all the stats content, and recent tips, are throwing up plenty of winners at good odds/overpriced- the issue is that i’m not landing on enough of them and/or I’m landing on the wrong ones. There have been enough good placed efforts/tips going close, and the SP has been beaten many times. The last few days have seen most fall out the back of the TV, me getting the ground wrong, or many of them simply pulling their chances away. Many recent tips will be winning races this season, and with any luck we will be on, if not tipped then 1/4 points to get back the losses etc. You can see from Mike’s comments below…my recent tips are 5/21, +34 since he started tracking… I will also be spending part of today adding every recent tip into my tracker, and creating some ‘notebook’ notes. There was a winner for Jonjo yesterday at 6/1, that I dodged…the second run after i’d tipped him on handicap debut. He now arrived fit, and in form, a different track and with a first time TT on. They were also more aggressive with him. He won on the bob at 6s, I couldn’t tempt myself in at the morning odds of 11/2, but another i’ve got wrong, the front two miles clear. There are always things you can improve in this game, and i’d better work out what I can be doing better,and the sort of criteria I need to be focusing more on. I’d better crack on.

GL with any bets.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps

Irish Angles

6.20 Wex – Lady Rococo (25/1< SP) 28/1

D McCain 

2.10 Uttox – Hit And Run (14/1< guide) 5/1

P Brennan (14/1< guide)

4.40 Uttox- Moss On The Mill 12/1

Flat

R Fell

7.10 Weth- Fisher Green 8/1

7.40 Weth – Inner Circle 8/1

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

IT’s HERE! (about bloody time)

A bit later than anticipated, all 72 pages and 12 675 ‘words’ of the Summer Stats Report 2018 (Flat Turf + Summer Jumps) is now complete. All qualifiers in Section 1 are based on the stats in this report. I know some of you like to use it to have a look at the various stats etc, and maybe even form your own portfolio of those angles you wish to follow. Access to this report is part of your membership and can be downloaded by clicking the link below. I will be selling this to non-members, probably for £39 (+vat) or something, I have yet to decide, but that doesn’t concern you. And not many people usually buy it. A link to this report will be posted in the Research Link in the Key above for future reference. Please don’t share it.

I dare say there is the odd typo and by all means flag if you spot one but they shouldn’t be material.

SUMMER STATS 2018: READ HERE>>> (version 2, Haydock SP figure was missing for Dascombe/Kingscote) 

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From yesterday…if you haven’t read the report below, please do.

IMPORTANT! 

I have spent a fair chunk of today updating results and trying to create a ‘where to begin’ document with regards to the Section 1 Strategies, to help us create that 100+ point systematic portfolio…

Section 1 Strategies: Where to begin?  Please Read HERE>>>

(this can also now be found in The Key, and with any luck is more orderly/to the point, than the current results links which are now a bit all over the place. I’ll tidy them up next) 

In it I highlight 3 Flat strategies you may wish to focus on, 1 jumps strategy (will be added to in September when Geegeez Speed returns for jumps) and a couple to consider in time. If you have no idea on where to start with the strategies in Section 1, or just want some ideas/thoughts to flick through, i’d advise having a look. I probably should have pulled this together a few weeks back, given the change over into the flat, so apologies for that. Hopefully you find it of some use. It does include a handy win% to losing runs chart. I will record a ‘brief’ video in the next couple of days also which may help.

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

37 Comments

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  • oops, visual spatial dysfunction has set in.
    U 1.40 – Excellent Team (micro’sTJC and Dist) ES+
    shit odds but probably attracts the ratings
    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 05/06/18 7:02 PM Reply


    • Ah I have an excuse this time, i didn’t refresh Geegeez, the 1.40 wasn’t there when I looked, that hurdle race split into two divisions and that can happen if I don’t refresh things etc. cheers.

      Josh 05/06/18 7:19 PM Reply


      • Couldn’t resist the tongue in cheek reference to Karius. Not sure what to make of that report.
        Thankfully Nick’s donation went to Scope earlier today !!!!!
        Mike

        titus_a_duxass 05/06/18 7:29 PM Reply


        • ha! I’m going to blame a similar issue for my recent troubles, I may fly myself out to a friendly US doctor. I used to play in goal in my ‘youth’ and was concussed once, elbow in the side of the head at a corner… I knew I was concussed, game over. I’m no medic but surely he would have known there was a problem at the time. He must have suffered similar in a few other games this season!! 🙂 That’s football. Now, i need to focus a bit harder on my own racing game. On we go.

          Josh 05/06/18 9:02 PM Reply


  • Nothing from me tomorrow

    Nick Mazur 05/06/18 9:44 PM Reply


    • Nice winner today with Voodoo Doll drifting to 8/1. Well done. Avoid Oliver’s Gold, a flatterer, although he fell today when fading anyway. Good luck.

      martin colwell 05/06/18 10:35 PM Reply


      • huh?? We looking at the same Oliver’s Gold Martin? He must be one of the most consistent National Hunt horses in training and any owner would like one like him… 44 NH runs, 9 wins, 20 wins/places. You’d struggle to find a jumps handicapper, esp at his class level, with better stats like that aged 10. Solid!

        I suspect that was one run too many in a short space of time..4th run in a month since 5th May… they removed the hurdles down back yesterday due to sun and they didn’t hang around – i think they went far too quick up top, mine fading, and OG possibly tapped for toe, and wouldn’t have enjoyed the lack of hurdles. In any case nothing was beating that Skelton horse…

        but we must be talking about a different horse! 🙂 That isn’t a bad record for a flatterer

        Josh 06/06/18 7:51 AM Reply


        • I know the stats back up that he can win but I still think he does not go through with it in a struggle. But you can say that about a lot of horses and they still win. Happy to consider alternative views as always and to be wrong. Maybe I just dont like the horse?

          martin colwell 06/06/18 9:52 AM Reply


          • You must have a bad punting experience on him haha. I can’t have any handicapper that wins/places on half of their runs as being a shirker, and most of his recent victories have been when staying on, and in a battle, where he’s had to go past horses. I didn’t have him down as that, but I am just going off the numbers/in running comments, and would have to watch some video back. I wouldn’t mind owning one like that.
            Josh

            Josh 06/06/18 9:55 AM Reply


    • Great work again Nick. Thanks!

      neilmck 06/06/18 12:17 AM Reply


  • AW meetings at Wolves and Kempton tomorrow. Qualifiers as follows:
    Wolves
    1.50 Bahamian Heights 10/1 & Red Stripes 11/1
    2.20 Aussie View 9/2
    2.50 Whitecrest 9/1 & Pushkin Museum 10/1
    3.20 Plymouth Sound 9/2
    3.50 Rinaria 22/1 (EW)
    5.20 Private Cashier 16/1

    Kempton
    6.00 Oona 5/1
    7.30 Balletomane 9/2
    9.00 Happy Escape

    1pt win except where noted

    I took these prices around 7pm but haven’t had the chance to post till now. One or two have dropped since then and one has lengthened. General rule is 4/1 – 25/1.

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 05/06/18 10:25 PM Reply


    • Happy Escape was 13/2

      No winners tonight, -2pts for the day.

      Ken McKenzie 05/06/18 10:43 PM Reply


      • Hi Ken….

        Have you changed your MO again? Just noticing that you have gone back to 11+ runner fields again.

        Tim

        Tim 06/06/18 2:03 PM Reply


        • Hi Tim. Thought you might spot that 🙂 Yes I’ve decided to do a monthly review of all my stats to date, then amend the strategy accordingly. Over the long term (say 2-3 years?) this should settle down to provide a consistent strategy. I found I was chopping and changing too much but now only change once per month. It does mean there will be some races with more than 11 runners.

          Ken McKenzie 06/06/18 4:13 PM Reply


          • One of which has just returned a nice 10/1 winner 🙂

            Ken McKenzie 06/06/18 4:16 PM Reply


            • Nothing wrong with making adjustments Ken as long as it’s based upon sound logic and increases long term profit. Arguably… they have to be value at some price just probably not at the minimum 4/1 you can afford to take in less competitive fields.

              Tim

              Tim 06/06/18 5:48 PM Reply


  • Great stats pack Josh, thanks for going to the trouble of preparing it. Having skimmed through, i’ve just noticed one omission. What is the SP profit on Dascombe/Kingscote @ Haydock?

    Chris Marshall 05/06/18 11:14 PM Reply


    • To save Josh a job, Chris…

      Kingscote / Dascombe / Haydock / 2010-18

      67/317 (21.14%) for 110.83 at ISP = 34.96%, 174.52 at BFSP = 55.05%

      HCPS : 42/172 (24.42%) for 89.27 at ISP = 51.9%, 70.38 at BFSP = 70.38%

      traf69 06/06/18 9:15 AM Reply


    • Cheers the Chris’ …

      Just updated, new guide posted in link above… before this season started, all age handicaps… +60 SP
      Trainer/Jockey Combo

      • T Dascombe/R Kingscote: 54 bets/16 wins/27 /30% sr/+60 SP/+75 BFSP/ AE 1.93 ES+

      No problem, It is a labour of love but I don’t really have a choice, as that is what underpins Section 1 haha.

      Josh

      Josh 06/06/18 9:32 AM Reply


      • Always happy to help with the data mining, Josh.

        I’m at it most days anyway.

        traf69 06/06/18 2:44 PM Reply


  • wednesday qualifiers, £2 ew
    Hamilton 3-00. London Glory 9-1 BV
    Wetherby 9-10. Aliento only if 6-1 or better

    martin whittle 06/06/18 12:36 AM Reply


    • very strange London Glory still 9-1 bv, 8-1 wh, 7-1 bfs but 18-1 b365 so cashed out for 3-90 and took the 18’s instead.
      Aliento best price at this time is 11-2 i’ll give it a couple more hours but if i still can’t get 6’s i’ll declare it a no bet.

      martin whittle 06/06/18 5:21 AM Reply


      • Aliento 13-2 skybet, backed

        martin whittle 06/06/18 7:43 AM Reply


        • Another of my tipsters who’s been doing rather well recently likes this one as well. I’ve had a go. GL

          James P 06/06/18 9:39 AM Reply


      • if London Glory does the biz i’ll be very happy i cashed out and backed with b365 @18’s now into 9’s

        martin whittle 06/06/18 11:11 AM Reply


  • Josh

    LTO losers. There are 2 today, Fishers Green was 4th at Newcastle last night.
    Pulled hard, tracked leaders, outpaced and hung left over 2f out, weakened over 1f out. There is a good chance it may not run?

    Fisher Green – (Wetherby, 19:10)
    Race: Amt Vehicle Rental Leeds Handicap17/2
    FTO 30/05 Notts lost 3rd. LTO 05/06 Newc 4th.
    Timeform 4/1, creditable third of 13 in handicap at Nottingham (10.2f, heavy) 7 days ago. Engaged 7.15 Newcastle Tuesday.

    Psychocandy – (Uttoxeter, 15:10)
    Race: Michael Plant Memorial Novices’ Handicap Chase8/1
    FTO 9/4 Ludlow Notes. NTO 12/05 War 3rd, LTO 23/05 War 3rd. Last chance saloon!!
    Timeform Maiden but showed further improvement over fences at Warwick (3m) last time, form on a par with the pick of her hurdling efforts. Tongue tie goes on now.

    For those following the LTO losers since I started tracking them the results are.
    21 runs 5 wins +34 BOG +13.25 SP. all to 1pt win.

    Mike

    mickeydee 06/06/18 8:23 AM Reply


    • hmmm, +34. Is that backing them for 3 starts after tip/stop at a winner? That’s how ‘we’ should approach I think? as you can’t keep backing them forever, although for more exposed horses that could be next 3 starts in ‘ideal’ conditions… that Fell horse from Ayr and Cosmic C I won’t bother considering until some cut for example. Good stuff…about to tip one of those I think.

      Josh 06/06/18 8:47 AM Reply


      • Hi Josh
        I have recorded your Notes Tips you have put up since the 1st April that being the flat and summer jumps season. I started recording them from 21st May with a 3 strikes and out if they don’t win. If they win within the 3 strikes they and have made a profit they will be discarded.
        The winners
        La Sioux 4s into 9/4
        Loves Dream 4s into 5/2
        Parole 16s into 8s
        Clemento 20s into 11s
        Frozen Flame 6s into 11/2

        Today’s Note runner is on its 3rd run since you first noted it on 9th April and it has been placed on 2 successive occasions at War. For ew backers you would have got a place on one of those occassions.

        Good Luck today.

        Mike

        mickeydee 06/06/18 9:46 AM Reply


        • great stuff Mike, much appreciated. Not long before you started recording those I can recall Albareeq winning at 9s, and a Loughnane sprinter winning NTO after tipped, at 25s, with plenty of losers also no doubt. It is certainly a decent ‘way in’ that I should be following..all of those winners mentioned by you had solid reasons for why they could be supported again. It may be backing blind is way to go, but I like to add some nuance when looking at them. I’m going to add them all into my tracker today, going back a few weeks, to share the load and make sure we don’t miss anything, not fair of me to be relying on you all the time, especially as it really is looking like a solid starting point – which should be the case, especially as in general i’m focused on unexposed horses that should show more at some point, i’ve generally just been a few runs too soon!

          Josh 06/06/18 9:53 AM Reply


    • Yeah, Fisher Green doesn’t run today.

      traf69 06/06/18 9:16 AM Reply


    • Hi Mickey
      once again thank you for putting them up greatly appreciated,will be nice to see how they perform over 6 months plus.
      Cheers
      Colin

      colin leafe 06/06/18 12:28 PM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Uttoxeter
    2.10 Hit And Run
    3.10 Too Much Too Soon
    Kempton
    8.00 Native Fighter Oisin Murphy back on board and his record is 2 wins and a 3rd,won twice over CD.

    colin leafe 06/06/18 10:09 AM Reply


  • hello everyone … talk about a horse who has slid down a very greased ladder !! and been on a oriental holiday to boot 🙂
    8.00 Kempton – PORT DOUGLAS (14/1 advised last night, 25/1 available now),

    Port Douglas is a son of Galileo who was a very good yardstick for Ballydoyle between 2015/16. He’s a former group two winner and also finished a solid fourth in the 2015 group one racing post trophy before running a good race to finish a short head second in the Chester Vase and then a close-up fifth in the Irish Derby, which is top level form compared to handicap company. He picked up a small injury and wasn’t seen for a long time before joining Paul Cole, where he’s been highly tried in all three runs so far. He ran better then figures suggested two starts ago at this track over 1m7f, making headway before failing to see out the trip. Last time out he could never figure at Wolverhampton off a mark 90 but the handicapper has dropped him a massive 7 pounds so he’s now on a mark 83, rated now 28 pound lower than when running in the 2016 Epsom Derby. Port Douglas might not be the horse he once was but he’s definitely got the ability to be competitive in a race like this and off this mark because a reproduction of his former group one form would be good enough to win this. At 33/1, there is a lot more worse bets out there and he could surprise a few here.
    i may have some coppers on this just in case he rem,embers how good he once was !! 🙂
    bella.

    bella 06/06/18 11:50 AM Reply


    • Hello Bella, thanks for posting…plenty of sound logic there to my eyes, just the sort of horse to track as if they ever rediscover some spark, which could be today, they may have a well handicapped one on their hands, even at a lower level. GL

      Josh 06/06/18 2:06 PM Reply


  • Uttox 4:40 Schindlers Prince 25s ew

    3 out 4 here so old timer loves it.
    Trainer/ Jockey combo looks good.

    Probably prefers more juice in the ground but having a play

    Darren 06/06/18 4:16 PM Reply


  • Todays Selection’s; 6.6.18

    Goodnight Charlie in the 16:40 at Uttoxeter @ 6.60
    Loujain in the 18:30 at Kempton @ 7.20
    Toushan in the 19:20 at Wexford @ 6.00
    Novis Adventus in the 20:00 at Kempton @ 26.00
    Not For You in the 20:50 at Wexford @ 6.40

    Richard 06/06/18 4:31 PM Reply


    • Rubbish today:
      Goodnight Charlie in the 16:40 at Uttoxeter @ 6.60
      PU 11/2 tracked leaders, outpaced 8th, weakened after next, behind 11th, pulled up before 3 out
      Loujain in the 18:30 at Kempton @ 7.20
      10 7/1 held up towards rear, ridden over 1f out, never figured
      Toushan in the 19:20 at Wexford @ 6.00
      3 7/1 towards rear, closer in 5th 3 out, ridden in moderate 3rd entering straight, kept on same pace in 3rd from last
      Novis Adventus in the 20:00 at Kempton @ 26.00
      14 66/1 mid-division, reminders halfway, weakened soon after, tailed off final 3f, soon eased
      Not For You in the 20:50 at Wexford @ 6.40
      7 8/1 towards rear, slight mistake 4th, mistake 8th, no impression from 3 out, never a factor

      Richard 08/06/18 3:04 AM Reply


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