nothing from me today.
GL with any bets.
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An interesting clash today in the 2.20 at Wolves where Burj is currently odds on. I have pictures of these and below in order of ratings are my comments. I also saw Barend Boy but did mot take photos that day but think he is no more than a 70+
Pirate – A grand looking type, too green and stupid to do himself justice. Also ended up racing wide and Marquand dropped his stick about .5f out. Well made, top end of medium. Oddly his mounted picture exposes his lack of fitness where his belly is more evident. Loads of improvement in this one; given the Hannon’s habit of sending good ones here definitely worth a follow. 79
Burj – Compact neat ready type, well tuned, lacking scope. 74
The fly in the ointment is that Pirate was pretty daft on debut and if he is a real bonehead he may still not be mature enough to take advantage. Nevertheless as the Hannons usually start good ones at Goodwood and Marquand threw his stick away I think he looks great e/ value here at 14s.
Ratings bet 1pt e/w
Back home on Friday.
06/06/18 8:17 AM
Bit worried that Pirate has not shortened in the market. Would be more expectant of a win if he comes in to 8s.
06/06/18 11:29 AM
Golf – This week I will go with Billy Horschel at 28/1 and Phil Mickelson at 16/1, both 1 point each way. Both have decent course form and I think will be looking to go well here before the US Open next week. Good luck.
06/06/18 10:45 AM
Wesley Bryan 150/1
Trey Mullinax 125/1
Matt Jones 125/1
Ben Crane 80/1
All 1 pt e/w for me
06/06/18 11:58 AM
Just a query on the prices you have put up on Horchel and Mickleson according to Oddachecker
Horschel BV 28/1 at 08.15 then 25/1 from 08.54 now at 11.45 mostly 22/1, no other bookmaker had 28/1 today.
Michelson 16/1 no bookmaker according to Oddschecker had any 16/1 today on the bookmakers they use.
If you go on Oddschecker site and click on the players name a history comes up on the players betting pattern,so for me how can you quote these prices on Horschel and Mickleson?
06/06/18 12:08 PM
Hi, these prices were on Matchbook earlier today. Horschel is now 26/1 and Mickelson out to 18/1. Prices on these sites come and go when someone posts up a trade. I have only gone £25 each way on both.
06/06/18 12:40 PM
Martin thanks for coming back never looked at matchbook before what is the place terms 1/4 5 or 1/5 7 could not work it out or rather find it.
Have always used the main bookmakers for my odds which i imagine most people do,just had a look at Betfair exchange they have Horschel at 26 which is really 25/1 less commission down to around 24/1 return.
Will stick to Oddschecker for my prices for i try to put 2 or 3 bookmakers who are quoting the same price and terms alongside the players.
06/06/18 1:09 PM
It is an exchange (0% Commission for new members for 2018) and so there are separate markets for win and place and no BOG insurance, you take your chance on a drift in price! I find the win odds are usually better than the bookies but the place offers are a bit lower on average. You can get a fair few quid on once the markets firm up. They do tournament match betting which is what I tend to be best at.
06/06/18 1:25 PM
Hi James P
will be watching you with interest at the prices and wish you well with your golf picks,over the past 4 years since having my bets proven by Optimum Racing and now on Josh’s site since September it is very rare that an 100/1 plus gets a placing.
Are you recording your bets and will you put up monthly profit or loss returns on the site,so any new viewers can decide if to follow you.
Wishing you all the best and hope that you produce a profit.
06/06/18 12:20 PM
I will do my best to try and keep track but I’m quite lazy so don’t keep records usually!
I think some tournaments lend themselves to outsiders winning/placing more so than others, as in the big tournaments the cream generally rises to the top, however in a week like this before a major where the top players maybe more focused on tuning up for Shinnecock Hills than winning a tournament (cue Brooks K winning by 7!) I think there’s some scope here for the longer priced players. I certainly wont be playing many long shots next week!
Recently, I tend to have more success with longer shots in the European tour than the PGA (these are the only 2 tours I really bet on). I think that’s probably due to my better familiarity with the tour and it generally being of a lower level and as such there aren’t too many players that dominate tournaments, other than the Rolex and the final Road to Dubai events. The run of the mill events find plenty of longer shots places and this is where I focus. To be honest the last few weeks haven’t been that great personally with only one big priced place i can think of (200/1 on Lucas Bjeergaard in the China Open) but you go through dry weeks at these odds.
06/06/18 3:02 PM
There were at least a couple of big price places at the weekend – Stanley and Uihlein.
06/06/18 3:46 PM
Yeah I don’t think De Chambeau went off that short either, 50s maybe?
Ted Potter returned at 400/1 at Pebble Beach and Andrew Landry 200/1 in the Texas Open this year, so they are there. Just not for me unfortunately on those occasions!
I think like all betting, it really boils down to finding value, the margins are bigger in golf as there are 150+ players but only 1 winner and 6-8 places return anything, so its harder to win each week. I had some decent success with Top 20 betting at the start of the season, but I tend to judge week by week whats my preferred angle of attack and there hasn’t been much that’s grabbed me on that front recently.
06/06/18 3:57 PM
Surprised at the suggestion that those at long odds rarely place.
In the last 12 months I’ve backed Poulter and Schauffelle at 3 figures that actually won and I know there will be many more. In the past Few weeks Si Woo Kim was in excess of 200/1 I believe and lost in a photo, Ben crane had a top ten finish when 350/1 and Kyle Stanley could have won at the weekend if he had parred the 72nd hole. A lot more value in that end of the market than the top 5 or 6
06/06/18 5:39 PM
Just arrived home and today’s golf page is alive come what may i will stick to my methods of selecting the bets which again have been proven over 4 years, and my prices are clear and transparent to everyone.
If anyone is winning backing long shots please start proofing and recording the bets in a clear and transparent manner for i would like to back them once proven over a period of time.
06/06/18 6:50 PM