Members Daily Post: 05/06/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

JUMPS

Bangor

4.00– Russborough (dist) (late addition, 8.12am) 10/1 S2

4.30 – Hello Fellas (hncp h) H3 I1 9/4

 

Fontwell

2.15 – Theatre Rouge (all hncps + hncp h + micros dist/age) ES+ 14/1 S2 S3A UP 16/1

3.45 – Highbury High (all hncps) ES+I314/1 S2 S3A S5 UP 33/1 

5.15 – 

Muddle Thinking (NHF) 4/1 

What A Muddle (NHF) 7/1 

 

Southwell

9.05 – Sunrise Ruby (NHF) 3/1 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

The Strategies: Where should you start? Some ideas HERE>>>

‘Flat Strategies/results‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

‘Jumps Strategies/results’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 3rd June 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 10/123,38p, -2)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +101.5)

NOTES

2.15 Font – Theatre Rouge – 1 point win – 14/1 (bet365) 12/1 (gen) UP 16/1, I can’t help not tip a horse that wishes to pull it’s chance away at the moment! Far to keen for first half of that race,looked to be coming into it but found nothing. Maybe more to it than her in race antics. 

3.45 Font – Highbury High- 1 point win – 16/1 (gen) UP 33/1 , market told the story this time sadly, not a run devoid of promise but well beat in the end.

8.35 South- Eureau Du Boulay – 1 point win – 28/1 (gen)

 

That will be all for tips. (posted 09.10) 

Theatre Rouge... well it can’t get much worse than yesterday so hopefully one or two of these give me something to cheer. This is the first of two i am going with that PU on their last start. I did have a look at Mulholland’s PU LTO stats and discovered…

standard handicap chase/hurdle / last run was first run in 121+ days or more / PU LTO / running at same distance or dropped in trip / 2014-

31 bets / 8 wins / 10 w|p / 26% sr / +35 SP / +46 BFSP.

Interesting and it all makes logical sense. It would appear that for some horses, especially if running them over too far, he doesn’t have them cherry ripe at all and a PU isn’t really a bad sign as usually fitness based and/or fitness/stamina. Plenty of logic there. Code of Law ‘qualified’ against this angle when winning here at the last meeting for the stats/S2, at 10s, when I didn’t have a penny on. Both of his runners above hit those stats today also.

Back to Theatre Rouge…this looks a very winnable race really, fairly open where most have something to prove. This one returned after 344 days off LTO and now drops markedly in trip and gets a headgear switch, with first time CP coming on. You can just back the trainer’s handicappers blind here… he is 16/54,30p in handicap hurdles in the last 5 years, 7/16,10p at the distance, 2/3,3p in the distance/class. This young jockey knows what he’s doing and I think there could be a chance to try and make all, if he so wants. They should be aggressive given there is every chance she stays a bit further. She is lightly raced in handicaps although her one win to date was fortuitous but there should be more to come at some point and Mulholland can improve them, dare I say even from the Hobbs yard I suspect, especially given their troubles over the last year or so. At 12s/14s I thought there was enough to go on. Given how lightly raced a few of these are, you won’t be surprised if something from the top 4 in the market takes it. The S Mullins horse will go very close if handling the ground which is an unknown in open company. In that context his price is about right I think but he could bolt up.

Highbury High… well I know he is 11 but in the context of this race I thought 16/1 was just ridiculous. No doubt i’ll be left with egg on my face but if he repeated that run from 3 starts back, he would be bang there against this lot, and with the jockeys claim he is 1lb below that winning mark. He returned after 174 days off LTO in a class 3 in soft. The subsequent break may suggest that something went amiss, and maybe he will need this, hence the lack of market strength. He has won after a break of 60+ days over fences and the trainer can ready them if desired. Although he has some decent runs on soft, he has always appeared better on a sounder surface… 3/10,7p in good ground handicap chases. He rarely runs a bad race in such conditions and he drops back into a more realistic level here. This race seemed open to me and I thought the top 3 in the market were worth taking on at the prices. The Sam Thomas runner is probably most interesting and if he handles this track may try and make all again- although there are 3/4 who like to get on with it- and that will help the selection who is usually ridden more patiently. I See You Well is interesting up in trip and back on decent ground but his jockey is 1/33 in chases and that would put me off at his price- at the moment the young lad rides well over hurdles but is clearly still getting his act together over fences it would appear, unless he’s just ridden plenty of donkeys in that time. The Fry horse  is short for one who just keeps placing and is 8lb above her last winning mark but that consistency may take her far in this race. In any case, 16s seemed too big to my eyes for the selection – NM is 11/39,16p in handicap chases at the track in the last 5 years.

With any luck one of those two can add to his handicap stats here, but time will tell. They both seemed a shade overpriced to my eyes.

Eureau Du Boulay … maybe a sign that I need to lie down in a dark room but I just couldn’t let this lightly raced horse go unbacked at 28/1. It’s only his third run for the yard, he drops in trip, drops in class, runs on Good for the first time and this is his first run after a wind op, and he can race prominently. He was lightly raced in France but showed some ability and his sire’s stats are far superior on Good ground than a softer surface – so, I wonder if he wants it quicker, and if so, you’d like to think his trainer will find a race for him over the summer. It could be he needs more time to mature but he could look well handicapped at some point. With the jockeys claim he is 19lb lower than his initial opening mark two runs back, which was in a Festival G3. There were plenty of reasons there for why he ‘could’ look a different horse today. Anything could happen. 

dangers... well clearly I am probably mad for taking on the top two in the market… I have backed the Lacey qualifier below, Sword Of Fate, at 4/1 which is around my price limit for system qualifiers. That angle has served us well and this one arrives fit and in form, moving back into a handicap hurdle where he is thoroughly unexposed, especially on good. It’s hard to know what to make of a two runner chase the last day but he was impressive and you’d think there is more to come in both codes. The Skelton horse is clearly fancied to go well but seems short- maybe another of those summer jumpers from them that has 20lb in hand, but his last trainer is no mug. And there is a tip from Nick. So, hopefully one of those three wins.

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Re-cap...yesterday was poor… Cosmic Chatter, in hindsight, was just an awful pick considering the race/oppo etc and how exposed he was in that context. I’ll keep an eye on him but I won’t touch him again until he gets some cut and is placed into a race with fewer unexposed/classier types in – at the weekend when I wasn’t expecting much rain I got it in bucket loads it seemed at Donny/Musselburgh, and yesterday when the forecast thunderstorms would have been welcome, they didn’t arrive. Still, you pay your money and take your chance and I knew that was a risk. The others ran strange races….well poor Baihas, I don’t know as yet if he survived after pulling up sharpish having gone wrong. He was in the perfect position at the time and was tanking (in a controlled way) in his first time headgear. We will never know how that would have gone although his jumping would have needed to improve as the race went on. The other two just did far too much and over-raced. The Burke horse just pulled and pulled and unsurprisingly faded. Maybe something sparked her up pre race. Kupa River… well Hamilton has just gone far too hard at the top end I think, given how he folded, but he was very easy on him when he did. He did give him a few cracks with little response. He may not have picked up on the ground either but he’s gone too quick to the eye. It may have been a deliberate ploy, if connections think he needs softer 🙂 At least his mark should come down again. I won’t touch him again until it is much softer and if he goes in on GF then so be it.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

R Hobson (33/1< guide)

8.35 – Eureu Du Boulay 22/1

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

3.00 Bang – Cheltenham De Vaige 6/1

Tom Lacey 

8.35 South – Sword Of Fate 4/1

 

Flat

R Fell (any, 8/1< best)

7.15 Newc – Fisher Green 6/1

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

IMPORTANT! 

I have spent a fair chunk of today updating results and trying to create a ‘where to begin’ document with regards to the Section 1 Strategies, to help us create that 100+ point systematic portfolio…

Section 1 Strategies: Where to begin?  Please Read HERE>>>

(this can also now be found in The Key, and with any luck is more orderly/to the point, than the current results links which are now a bit all over the place. I’ll tidy them up next) 

In it I highlight 3 Flat strategies you may wish to focus on, 1 jumps strategy (will be added to in September when Geegeez Speed returns for jumps) and a couple to consider in time. If you have no idea on where to start with the strategies in Section 1, or just want some ideas/thoughts to flick through, i’d advise having a look. I probably should have pulled this together a few weeks back, given the change over into the flat, so apologies for that. Hopefully you find it of some use. It does include a handy win% to losing runs chart. I will record a ‘brief’ video in the next couple of days also which may help.

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Results Update 

Results Update  (21st May- 3rd June) 

Summary below, links in Key for Jumps + Flat Strategies have been updated

Summary

Weekly TOTAL (advised strategies) (Section 1):

  • JUMPS – S1 (/) S2 (4/30,7p, +18, +10 BFSP) S2A (subset of S2… 1/6,2p, +11, +7.5 BFSP) S3 (1/4,3p, +0.5) S3A (2/14,5p, +6) S4 (/) S5 (1/11,3p, -2, -3 BFSP)
  • FLAT 2018: S1 (4/8,6p, +11.5) S2 (5/28,11p, 0) S3A (3/15,4p, -2.6) S4 (6/21,12p, +4.6) S5 (2/13,6p, -6.9) S6 (0/8,1p, -8)

TEST ZONE

  • Jumps angles: 3/16,3p, +32
  • Flat: 2/8,3p, +4

‘In Form Horses’ (won LTO or two runs ago, backed once if both a W1+W2)

  • Jumps: 0/10,0p, -10 (w1 : 0/6,0p, -6, w2 0/4,0p, -4)
  • Flat: 3/17,6p, -7 (w1 1/8,2p, -3, w2 2/9,4p, +10)

Handicap Debut (jumps+flat): 0

S3A Double/Treble rated (jumps+flat): 2/14,5p, -6.6

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

30 Comments

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  • One to add Josh
    B4.00 – Russborough (micro dist)
    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 04/06/18 8:54 PM Reply


    • bit short that but just as typing, pizza delivered!

      Nick’s bang in form as usual so a pledge of 10% from today in the first charity box I encounter in town tomorrow.
      Cheers
      Mike

      titus_a_duxass 04/06/18 9:53 PM Reply


  • AW racing at Newcastle tomorrow. Only two qualifiers:

    6.45 Go On Gal 8/1 & Pour L’Amour 11/1

    1pt win each

    Good Luck.

    Ken McKenzie 04/06/18 9:24 PM Reply


  • Nice to keep the run going today.
    Olivers Gold Southwell Tuesday 20:35 1pt e/w-There are a couple of unexposed her from big yards but this looks like a very solid bet. Is in the form of his life with a win and 2 places from his last 3 runs. Drops down in class here into a class 4 and runs off 10lbs lower than his 2nd in a chase LTO. Emma Todd gets on very well with him and is 3/7, 5p on the horse. He won over fences here 2 starts ago. Trainer is arguably hotter than anyone out there with 4 wins and 2 places from his last 7 runners so would expect another bold showing.
    Theatre Rouge Fontwell Tuesday 14:15 1pt e/w-Looked overpriced to me. Back to her last winning mark on her second start of Mulholland. She is a full sister to a Grade 3 placer and her brother did best over this sort of distance on good ground so the step back in trip could be a boost. They apply first time cheekpieces. There are excuses for 2 of her last three runs. Reed has been on for the trainer last 2 winners over jumps and seems to be getting his plum rides not to mention that he rides the track well. He has won 2 of his last 4 starts. I am hoping he will be positive on her. Trainer is in solid form and does well at the track.
    Voodoo Doll Bangor Tuesday 15:30 1.5pt win-Tipped up last time when absolutely cruising before deciding to jump to her right and unshipping her rider when absolutely cruising. Looks to have plenty in hand. They apply first time cheekpieces which the trainer has great success doing (last four runners with first time cheekpieces have won for the trainer). I couldn’t see anything else here that looked well treated and I am confident he will make up for his mistake LTO.

    Nick Mazur 04/06/18 9:29 PM Reply


    • The 8/1 available for Oliver’s Gold is OK value for each way but he does seem to need everything to fall in his lap to win a race. The 20/1 Theatre Rouge is a nice price but is a leap of faith in terms of coming back to some form for Neil Mulholland.
      Why do you think they are sticking the cheekpieces on Voodoo Doll? I know that they will likely do no harm anyway? Do you think that the horse has concentration issues and that made him fall LTO?
      Hope they all go well.

      martin colwell 04/06/18 10:18 PM Reply


      • Well I think given the front two are shocking value based on their stables you have to take them on in the 20:35. You have to take the Skelton shorties on all day week. If they beat you they beat you.

        As for Rouge we don’t really know she is out of form. She PU over 3m on soft than fell than PU after a year out. The 2 PU weren’t a surprise in fairness and perfectly explained.

        I can only assume they’re putting the headgear on Doll to eke that extra bit of improvement. It seems to work for them based on past results.

        Nick Mazur 04/06/18 10:41 PM Reply


        • Hi Everyone, I agree with Nick, Olivers Gold must have a good E/W chance, the other one of interest is Bangor 2.30 Henry Smith E/W 8/1, this ones last 3 runs on the flat for John Weymes have him finishing just in behind horses now rated over 120, there are a few unexposed ones in here but this is the good Doctor’s only runner here today must be worth a small E/W

          Good Luck

          Greg

          Greg Phillips 05/06/18 7:37 AM Reply


    • Sorry mate, i’ve given you the curse!! 🙂

      Josh 05/06/18 10:13 AM Reply


    • Incredible stuff and what a lovely drift to 8s! Thanks thanks thanks

      Max H 05/06/18 3:36 PM Reply


    • this is getting silly haha, well done. Never in much doubt, and 8s, 8s! He was going to do that the last day, but has relished that extra distance on good…clever ride, stuck to the rail so he couldn’t jink to his left again, CP worked their magic this time. I’ll join the party again at some point!

      Josh 05/06/18 3:41 PM Reply


      • Nicky’s nags, finding a way to win when you horse has only three legs should be the new motto given the last 3 winners have all drifted before the off. Double last time out would have been nicer but I guess we cant complain. Given that’s the 5th Evan Williams runner that has won in first time cheek pieces be rude not to have something at a big price at his next one running in the 4:30.

        Nick Mazur 05/06/18 3:50 PM Reply


  • first day of live test, i am backing all selections at £2 ew.
    Fontwell 4-15. Roparta Avenue 15-2 BV (13-2 Sky paying 4 places)
    Bangor 4-30. Courtlands Prince 16-1 most places.

    here’s yesterdays post – iv’e been paper trading what i call a method system as it’s not a pure system over the past couple of months with some quite encouraging results, all bets are ew and 6-1 is the cut off point. 93 bets 7 wins, 16 places, +23 pts to 1/2 pt ew level stakes.
    i’m going to start backing them at £4 a pt from tomorrow and will post on here . i’ll keep full records of results, wish me luck this is when it all goes tits up

    martin whittle 05/06/18 7:43 AM Reply


    • 1 place from 2 runners, £8 staked £5.75 returns – down £2-25

      martin whittle 05/06/18 5:16 PM Reply


      • Almost a winner. Roparta Avenue went to 1.01 on the exchanges before losing.

        neilmck 05/06/18 8:16 PM Reply


  • Josh

    LTO Losers. We have 3 today.

    According To Harry – (Fontwell, 15:45)
    Race: Shoreham Port Handicap Chase 13/2
    FTO 24/04.. 9/4 Ludlow TIP . LTO..19/05 Bang 4th.
    Timeform Operating below best at present, remote fourth at Bangor latest.

    Fisher Green – (Newcastle, 19:15)
    Race: Ncs Group Ltd Handicap 6/1
    LTO 30/05 Notts lost 3rd
    Timeform Promising start for new yard when fifth at Doncaster in April. Put subsequent poor effort behind him when third at Nottingham (10.2f, heavy) last week and has to enter calculations

    Frozen Flame – (Bangor, 16:30)
    Race: Racing UK Club Day Handicap Hurdle 11/2
    FTO 24/4 Hunt NH Notes…LTO 15/05 Southw 3rd.
    Timeform Improved for the switch to handicaps this spring, 4 lengths third at Southwell (3m) last month. Still signs of greenness then and he’s one to consider with improvement not ruled out

    Two have been out since Josh tipped AtoH and FF.

    Mike

    mickeydee 05/06/18 9:07 AM Reply


    • Cheers Mike, none of them are tempting prices to my eyes anyway, the Jonjo horse gets first time TT at least, and has been running well. 11/2 only seems ok. The chaser is more exposed but Dickie could get a tune, not sure will get an easy lead though, Fell’s is ok at 6s and a qualifier and given his form ok I suppose. I did look at all three but didn’t wish to tip any. GL

      Josh 05/06/18 10:18 AM Reply


      • Ah, Frozen Flame goes in 2nd start after tipped race, TT helping, won in a head bob by a nose, 11/2>6/1. He looks tricky mind. One for fences maybe in time. I’ll work out when to tip them again eventually, not reading it well. Unexposed and doing something diff with the TT,different track, maybe 11/2 ok this morning but said with hindsight and has only won by a nose.

        Josh 05/06/18 4:41 PM Reply


  • COLINS BETS

    4.15 Fontwell Royal Etiquette well down in the HC ran over its longest ever distance 2 mile 5 furlongs last time finishing 3rd up further in distance today 3 mile 1 furlong and with David Bass in the plate for the first time could today be the day that Royal Etiquette loses its maiden tag?
    7.15 Newcastle Fisher Green

    colin leafe 05/06/18 9:14 AM Reply


  • Tips – 6.45 NC, Go On Gal. Seems to go best on the all weather, the stiff track may suit, Shelly Birkett knows the horse, 10/1 BOG. I point each way. I am minus 4 points this month so far.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 05/06/18 10:06 AM Reply


  • for those wanting some racing books to read, geegeez have another article on the topic, top 4 books from Tony Keenan…

    https://www.geegeez.co.uk/four-racing-betting-books-you-should-read/

    Josh

    Josh 05/06/18 11:53 AM Reply


  • Oh, and today’s email to the general list includes a great free report for the World Cup from friend of the blog Paul Ruffee, you can read the email here… and grab the freebie if you so wish/like a dabble on the footy…

    https://app.getresponse.com/view.html?x=a62b&m=Pm1HD&u=WGi5&y=P&dont_redirect=1

    Josh

    Josh 05/06/18 11:54 AM Reply


  • I’m afraid I’ve been suckered into a few Mulholland drifters recently.

    Chris Murrell 05/06/18 2:54 PM Reply


    • they do go in at a price, 14s-16s doesn’t concern me, you of course hope that they are backed… that first one may have been unsteady based on pre race antics as she was so keen throughout the race, nothing left as they turned for home although maybe a bigger issue there at moment. CP may have sparked her up too much but she is lightly raced and you’d think has a summer handicap in her… my 11YO chaser has lost a leg it seems, and given the PU/74 days off, that is definitely a big negative, so i’ll prepare to batten down the hatches… not a great possy to be in with my days hopes resting on a 28s shot with two being very well backed at top of market haha. Ah.

      Josh 05/06/18 3:00 PM Reply


      • Eureu Du Boulay has been nibbled at all day, small yard, I’d be quite hopeful.

        Might have a little extra on…

        Chris Murrell 05/06/18 3:25 PM Reply


        • Well the lack of hurdles hasn’t helped with the pace there… I can only think he has been flat out for a fair chunk of that race, wasn’t devoid of promise turning for home but has faded unsurprisingly. Although nothing was beating that Skelton horse but telling he was held up out that back and looked like he’d just jumped into the race at the last flight, hacked up. One to track given his profile for Hobson.

          Josh 05/06/18 9:03 PM Reply


  • Afternoon Chaps

    6.45 Newcastle any idea?

    Thanks

    jim 05/06/18 4:03 PM Reply


    • Ken has a couple of his AW qualifiers above for that I think, maybe not a bad place to start. I can’t read a jumps handicap right at the moment so you definitely don’t want my thoughts as to the AW!! GL

      Josh 05/06/18 4:28 PM Reply


      • Decisions, Decisions

        Which one do you think has the better chance Ken? (Only because I have a free bet, thanks to Nick!!)
        Thanks
        Jim

        JIM 05/06/18 4:38 PM Reply


        • I’ve looked at the race too.
          There’s a few rogues dotted about and I tend to be drawn to those that have form on this course.
          My pin has landed on Major Rowan.
          Hacked up Aug 16 over 12f Cl5 off 60 and walloped upto 73.
          Spent all this time afterwards running in higher class races and on turf to eventually get its mark down to 60 today in a Cl6. And running over 12f again.
          Are the stars aligning?.

          gallou 05/06/18 5:11 PM Reply


          • No

            gallou 05/06/18 8:30 PM Reply


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