Members Daily Post: 02/06/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Doncaster

1.20 – Tan Arabiq (micro going IF GF) I3 16/1 UP

3.05 –

White Chocolate (all hncps 5 yrs, all hncps) ES+ H3 I3 G3 11/8 S3A S4 S5 WON 11/8>6/5

Mouille Point (m age) H3 I3 G1 7/2 S4 S2  UP

(only 4 runners in race, only three with ratings) 

 

Musselburgh

4.00 – Zeshov (all hncps + m going) H3 G3 11/2 S5 UP

4.55 –

Royal Brave (all hncps + m going) w2 H3 I3 4/1 3rd 

Tallinski (all hncps) G1 11/1 S6 UP

Paddy Power (m age) I3 11/2  UP

5.30 – Bal De Rio (all hncps) H1 G3  6/4 S2 3rd

 

Epsom

5.15 – 

Twin Star (all hncps + 4yo+) 20/1 

Lorelina (all hncps + 4yo+)  16/1 UP

 

Chepstow

6.00 –

Upended (m dist) 14/1 UP

I’m A Believer (m age) I1 5/1  UP

6.30 – Miss Inga Sock (all hncps) ES+ I3 15/2 S3A  UP

7.30 –

Berkshire Boy (4yo+5 yrs, 4yo+) ES+  4/1  S3A WON 4/1 

Operative (all hncps) 14 H1 G3 9/2 S2 UP

Hedging (all hncps) w2 ES+ I3 10/1 S3A  UP

8.30 – Athassel (m dist move) 12/1 UP

9.00 – Quantum Dot (all hncps + 3yo+) 14 11/2  WON 9/1 

 

Lingfield

7.40 – Porto Ferro (m class/class move) w2 H3 I3 G3  5/1 S4 S5  2nd 

 

JUMPS

 

Hexham

1.30 – Russian Rascal (all hncps + m dist) w2 ES+ H1 I1 3/1 S3A  UP

2.05 – Sharney Sike (hncp chase) w1 30 H3 I3 7/2 UP

3.50 –

Desert Island Dusk (all hncps) ES+ I1 10/1 S2 S3A S5   WON 10/1>11/2 (20p R4) 8/1 

It’s Pandorama (hncp h) H3 I3 11/2  S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP) UP

4.45 –

No Such Number (all hncps) ES+ H3 I3 4/1 S3A  UP

Missfits (hncp c) 14/1 S2  UP

5.20-

Chanceitan (m class) ES+ 12/1 S2 S3A UP

Sporting Milan (m class move) w1 30 H1 11/2 UP

 

Worcester

5.00 –

Katy P (all hncps) w2 ES+ H3 6/1 S3A UP

Mr McGuinness (all hncps) 12/1 S2 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end6th May 2018)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 6th May 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 10/115,37p, +10 +6)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +101.5)

NOTES

1.20 Donc – Tan Arabiq – 1 point win – 18/1 (bet365/BV) 16/1 (gen) (08.24)

4.55 Muss – Tallinski – 1 point win – 12/1 (PP/BV) 11/1 (gen) (08.31)

5.15 Epsom- Twin Star – 1 point win – 20/1 (gen) (08.40)

7.30 Chep – Hedging – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen) (08.55)

 

That will be all for tips.

 

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

4.45 Hex – Imperial Prince

Irish Angles

6.50 Tra- Chin Up (25/1<)

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Epsom

A decent enough day for the ‘through the card’ notes on day 1. 12 horses in ‘bold’, 2 winners at 5s and 7s, and  I even managed to flag the right ‘EW’ horses, seconds at 10/1 and 25/1. Even better if you ignored the shorties. I’d take that as a return on such efforts. 

Day 2 ‘Qualifiers’ against ‘big meeting’ stats (starting point)

2.00 – Book of Dreams

2.35 – Anna Nerium / Stage Name

3.10 –

Love Dreams (worth a go at 7s even as I type…owes us nothing really, but SDS could get the lead here and bag that golden highway…Arod may be close enough…1-2 all the way round maybe! It is a step up in class, but just it’s SDS on a front runner and ground is fine)

Arod

3.45 – Blue De Vega (missed him, Murphy handicaps)

4.30 – Young Rascal

5.15 – Melting Dew / Soldier In Action / Twin Star

5.50 – Shanghai Glory

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Trainer  race pointers

those that have won this very race at least twice, with a runner today…

2.00 – George (Kirk 3/7,4p in the race…prob worth change at double figures just on that basis!)

5.15 – Soldier In Action / Star of The East

The Derby…the usual names, no point listing those!

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Day 2 ‘through the card’

Listed in order of preference for each race, left to right…

2.00 – Poets Prince / Book of Dreams / George

2.35 – Anna Nerium

3.10 – Love Dreams / Arod

3.45 – from fee post.. FUN stakes advised..

Just That Lord 25/1 

Bahamian Sunrise 25/1 

Boom The Groom 8/1 

Blue De Vega 14/1 

4.30 – Kew Gardens (just for fun EW, as he ‘could’ be the pace angle and cling onto a place, or not be good enough!)

5.15 – Dash of Spice/ Soldier In Action / Twin Star

5.50 – Shangai Glory / Al Qahwa (tipped LTO I think, would have won if a clear run, 7s ok but not massive in race like this, for tipping purposes in sect 2) / Brian The Snail

Some darts there for fun if you’re track side, use how you please. I’ve spent as much time on that as I would just one 8 runner C3 3m+ handicap chase! 

 

 

Muss ‘through the card’

As requested by William, best of luck…

1.40 – Meccas Spirit

2.15 – No Lippy

2.50 – Isabella (should lead,prob one of top two wins but can’t just back shorties!)

3.25 – Unforgettablefilly

4.00 – Zeshov

4.55 – Tallinksi (a tip)  / War Whisper

5.30 – The Last Debutante (may try and make all)

 

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

27 Comments

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  • my day 2 through the card, i have backed them all £5 win,£2.5ew.
    2-00. Poets Prince 4-1 win, Westbrooke Bertie 16-1 ew
    2-35. Lincoln Rocks 4-1 win Dance Diva 10-1 ew
    3-10. Gabrial 11-1 ew, Love Dreams 7-1 ew
    3-45. Edward Lewis 10-1 ew, Tanasoq 14-1 ew
    4-30. Kew Gardens 33-1 ew, Masar 18-1 ew
    5-15. Mutamaded 40-1 ew
    5-50. Ashpan Sam 10-1 ew, Teruntum Star 10-1 ew

    martin whittle 02/06/18 2:12 AM Reply


  • Josh

    LTO losers

    There are 3 today Love Dreams has been covered by Josh above won lto .

    ECHO COVE..Don 5.25..12/1
    19/4 Newm Notes
    Timeform Lightly-raced maiden. 7/2, creditable 2 lengths third of 10 to Knighted in handicap at Nottingham (8.3f, good to firm) 21 days ago, needing stronger gallop

    SCRUPULEUX ..Wor..1.45…40/1
    24/4 Exeter Notes
    Timeform Has offered very little for this yard and is hard to make a case for here.

    Mike

    mickeydee 02/06/18 7:39 AM Reply


  • Morning Josh,

    Well done with the winner yesterday. Back on track with a bang! I wondered if you’d seen any patterns with the availability of prices associated with your selections and whether you felt that the price reduction was due to the weight of money from your admiring followers or some other means? I noted yesterday the price of Sir Plato seemed to go fairly quickly and continued to collapse through the day. Clearly money from connections as well you’d assume.

    Is price availability something that you track? Would it be worth noting at what time the ‘tips’ are posted, perhaps even against the tip itself?

    Cheers,
    Lee

    Lee Hayward 02/06/18 7:43 AM Reply


    • Hi Lee,

      It isn’t something I have noticed as yet, I don’t think I make a difference at all, and the other two didn’t move, one drifting. I do try and monitor prices and if that collapsed quickly i’m happy to declare it a few points shorter. On a weekday tips will usually be posted between 8-10, and same with weekends really, certainly in terms of ‘notes’ as anything from the stats qualifiers as starting points. As yet there has never been an issue/complaint as to prices vanishing massively… in part that’s why I only tip in the morning/on morning prices widely available (a ‘general’ price) (and I only bet in the morning personally as i’m sure that’s a way to try and keep accounts for longer, but I could be talking nonsense!) and by drip feeding it between 8-10 it hopefully ensures X followers of my tips don’t all bet in a 10 minute window say, and certainly on the exchange etc.

      I don’t have 1000s lumping on 🙂

      Adding the time of tip is a good idea, and maybe I should change my ‘update’ codes I use in the blog title – currently ‘update 6’ but I should start adding ‘tipx1’ maybe.

      Not many of them collapse quite like that, certainly from a morning price.

      What time did you look/what price was he?

      Josh

      ps I did think there was a ‘push notification’ option you could select, which I think a few people have done, as I send such a notification each time I make a significant update on a members post, certainly when I ‘tip’

      Josh 02/06/18 7:54 AM Reply


      • Yeh I’ve seen the notification but forgot to switch it on and can see where to do so now.

        When I looked yesterday I think it was 9s or maybe even 7s, so I held off thinking it might open bigger / drift again, but best price was 11/2 when opening. Hard to say exactly what time that was as I’m in France so looking when I can and the time difference complicates it.

        I’ve not really experienced any

        Lee Hayward 02/06/18 8:26 AM Reply


        • That should say….

          I’ve not really experienced any significant inability to get prices as such. Particularly around the festivals etc, but more recently and that maybe partly when I’ve been looking, I have noted some of the prices were somewhat shorter than when you tipped.

          Yeah, I thought that if you added a time to the ‘tips’ it would also give readers an indication when they were posted and give people an indicate as to whether they’re late reading or it.

          Cheers,
          Lee

          Lee Hayward 02/06/18 8:43 AM Reply


          • I’ve definitely noticed that some of the prices disappear quickly in the morning. I don’t think it’s anything to do with weight of money coming from RTP subscribers, just that they’re often posted at a time when prices can change quite quickly.

            neilmck 02/06/18 11:15 AM Reply


            • I think Neil has hit it on the head. The prices have a habit of moving at exactly the time range when Josh tips but not due to the weight of numbers on here, (much like my tips which don’t really move much alone on overnight prices) so I don’t think he can do much with posting or alerting people when he tips. Only thing I can think of is possibly sending them out more like 7:30-9 instead of 8-10.

              Nick Mazur 02/06/18 12:24 PM Reply


  • Morning, because i have been in such atrocious form, don`t think anyone even noticed i had the winner of the last at Epsom, so, onto today!
    14:00 Epsom
    BOOK OF DREAMS 16/1 gen
    is a lot bigger in the market than stablemate POETS PRINCE. Don’t think there is much between them and the easy ground will suit. Step up in trip is a slight worry but there is stamina on the dam side of the pedigree. SDS rides and is 6-21(29%) this year for Mark Johnston.
    GEORGE 14/1 gen
    George is still a maiden after 8 races, but has come close with two 2nds including in only previous appearance on Heavy Ground last October.
    A low mark of 83 at rewarding odds of 14/1.

    15:45 Epsom
    TARBOOSH 11/1 gen
    Had a fantastic run on turf from May onwards last year winning four times from seven starts, climbing twenty pounds in the process. Finished a slightly unlucky ninth over today’s course and distance last time out, failing to get a clear run. If he gets the break he may just shock the big boys.
    JUST THAT LORD 20/1 gen
    Was two from four for these connections on the All-Weather earlier this year before finishing a close third over today’s course and distance in April. Failed to back that effort up, however, when fourth on the turf course at Lingfield last time out. Runs off the same mark today and a return to Epsom may just spark an interest.

    17:15 Epsom
    MELTING DEW 11/1 gen
    A 4-y-old with only 10 outing to his name. Looks like another bring him to the boil slowly, Stoute project. We’ve already seen him win two races. One of which was last seasons come back run. So may be he can repeat that level of performance today.
    MUTAMADED 40/1 gen
    His last three wins have all been over one-mile two-furlongs at Ripon, the most recent coming last month. Has won on soft ground in the past, so will have no problem with conditions today, although Ruth Carr i don`t think , will have sent him down here for a day out..

    17:50 Epsom
    BRIAN THE SNAIL 9/1 gen
    Looked very promising as a three-year-old but things quickly have gone astray. He was well-beaten on all his runs in 2017, having wind surgery over the winter. His handicap mark continues to slide, if returning to form he has the beating of all of these!
    WATCHABLE 9/1 gen
    Finally back into the winner’s enclosure when scoring at Doncaster last month, winning by a neck. That form has been boosted since and despite a three-pound rise, he’s still feasibly treated on previous form. He handles cut in the ground and is unlikely to be far away for a place.

    all above 1pt ew.
    Good luck with whatever you back today!

    Stewart 02/06/18 8:20 AM Reply


  • lee regarding joshs tip yesterday sir plato the 14/1 did go very quickly that wyyas down to it being well overpriced in the first place. this horse tipped a lot of boxes its win ratio was good trip and ground were perfect and track for a confirmed front runner. i work early and rise at 4.00 in the morning and this type of price 14/1would go mainly by 6.00 to 7.00 oclock.the great thing about nick mazur is he posts the previous evening so i pick his prices at 4.00. poor josh is a busy man with all his website duties as well as a life i think it would be to much to ask him to get his selections up any earlier. alot of joshs tips drift as he plays alot of speculative selections sometimes the price will go but plenty dont i hgope that helps as i back josh and nick regulally

    paul bailey 02/06/18 8:24 AM Reply


    • Oh my tipping in the morning is quite deliberate! Mainly because of price and I like to take a morning judgement on value that is widely available (usually!) and for at least an hour or two, and within 1–2 points of what I post up. It is rare for them to crash like that, but he was a silly price and everyone soon realised it. If that was a weekday/ie no Epsom/not so many meetings, his price probably would have gone in the evening and he wouldn’t have been tipped. I do like attacking the racing with a clear head in the morning, and as I am charging, I don’t wish to be posting in evening, when a) prices can go quickly b) i’m sure taking stand out prices with certain bookies the evening before for £20 + stakes, say, is a sure fire way to alert the bots/traders/get your account closed. I still have a Bet365 account and have taken plenty off them this year, and as yet they haven’t closed me- when they do, my morning/don’t always take top price theory may go out the window!!
      and yea, come 6pm, after completing main parts of post for next day, my head is shot and I don’t wish to look at many other horses! Friday afternoon/evening before a big Saturday being an exception unless i’m out etc.

      Looks like i’d best knock 4 points of that declared tipping total above.
      Josh

      Josh 02/06/18 8:46 AM Reply


    • I don’t know if it’s possible but could you even give a 5 minute tweet saying tip is coming .I just use the shops and I nearly got the 14s yesterday but by the time I wrote it out it went to 10s .I went to Hills and got 11s .Not the end of the world though if you can’t .It swings in roundabouts .

      Pendo 02/06/18 10:16 AM Reply


      • I tweeted at 9.15 today about all tips, and prices holding. I don’t wish to tweet to everyone every time a tip is there. There isn’t much else I can do, the time frame for when posted is clear, it’s a big 2h window, but just a case of checking when you can and keeping tabs on the posts with the updates I use in the title. If you check at 9 and 10, or whenever, you won’t ever miss too much on price I don’t think. And sometimes I forget to tweet but not many members follow me on there I don’t think. Maybe I need to think of another way. The alternative is that I just hold back and post them all in one go at time X. I’ll ponder.
        Josh

        Josh 02/06/18 10:19 AM Reply


        • No problem I think if you sent them at the same time it would be easier for myself don’t know about the rest of the guys though .Its got to suit you first though .cheers

          Pendo 02/06/18 2:22 PM Reply


  • hi,

    Could anyone tell me how to turn notifications on

    Thanks

    Utsav Killa 02/06/18 8:42 AM Reply


    • yes i’m not 100% sure haha, esp after they should pop up once and if say no then may not appear again, and may depend on the device/browser. Leave it with me, I don’t have my head around how it works!
      Josh

      Josh 02/06/18 8:47 AM Reply


    • I just cleared my browsing history and RTP site asked if I wanted to accept notifications. I was not getting them before doing that. It may work for you

      enjoysummers 02/06/18 12:01 PM Reply


  • The timing of “going to press” is a contentious one and you’ll never satisfy everyone. I post my picks on geegeez and the other site the evening before, because that’s what the majority wanted. But that doesn’t stop a minority from complaining that I’m trying to cherry pick the odds!

    traf69 02/06/18 8:42 AM Reply


    • Even if you were, why shouldn’t you cherry pick the odds ? You pick the buggers out !

      westy2 02/06/18 9:00 AM Reply


  • I thought I would put these up as the price on Grams is going

    Pacify Epsom 17:15 1pt e/w Price taken 11/1 5p 1/5 and 12/1 4p 1/4 split stake
    Watchable Epsom 17:50 1pt e/w Price taken 9/1
    Grams And Ounces Chepstow 18:00 1.5pt e/w Price taken 7/1
    More to follow

    Nick Mazur 02/06/18 9:26 AM Reply


    • Given my skills don’t include being clairvoyant in predicting the weather that will be it for me.

      Nick Mazur 02/06/18 11:17 AM Reply


      • Just to add (oh to have an edit button Josh!), nothing I am confident in tipping in the Dash but have had £5 e/w on Harry Hurricane so here is hoping Bentley has a good day today.

        Nick Mazur 02/06/18 11:24 AM Reply


  • Kew Gardens is better than its last run and has ideal conditions here. At Lingfield, the going was G-F, and, crucially the horse lost a shoe (little reported), both elements causing it to hang. 33/1, 1/4 the place represents a value EW investment.

    chrisrees 02/06/18 10:26 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Worcester
    1.45 Third Act
    2.55 Pearls Legend
    Epsom
    2.00 Book Of Dreams
    3.45 Duke Of Firenze
    3.45 Edward Lewis
    5.15 Across The Stars
    5.15 Star Of The East
    Chepstow
    7.30 Fox Trotter

    Yesterdays two winners both heavily backed £27.50 Profit to £10 at Bookmakers SP and £120 profit when using BOG to take the price on the days returns.

    colin leafe 02/06/18 10:40 AM Reply


  • Well after the first race decided to add one more bet: Edward Lewis Epsom 15:45 1pt e/w Price taken 11/1

    Nick Mazur 02/06/18 2:27 PM Reply


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