Free Daily Post: 02/06/18 (Dash Notes/Muss)

The Dash

I have had a look at some stats/trends and in truth haven’t found anything of note really…

Dash:

10/184 runners, 40p

7/10 age 6+ (7/88,19p)

  • 3-5: 3/96,21p (places is similar to 6+, so could just be luck)

Other

  • Stall 3-7: 0/46,5p
  • Stall 14-19: 5/55,15p
  • 0 track/distance runs: 1/82,20p
  • Claiming jocks: 0/30,3p

Trainers: no trainer has won this more than once in last 10 years.

The Dash…thoughts…

This looks a horror of a race and not one to go mad on by any means! I have used Geegeez and Inform speed ratings as a guide, plus a look at ‘pace’ and some of those with course form. This race can throw up the odd surprise and this will be the fastest 5f many of these have run in, and that can unlock all sorts in a horse and could be what some have wanted all along- making any apparent ‘lack of class’ irrelevant, as they improve on all previous efforts. Something will need luck in running and who knows if against the rail will still be a golden highway on this drying ground. IF all the jockeys come this side, or wish to, there could be carnage! And you never know, something drawn middle to low may then take advantage. 4 horses at big prices looked interesting, for my £5 on the nose fun bets… anything could happen but there has been some method to my madness… in no particular order…

Just That Lord 25/1 

Bahamian Sunrise 25/1 

Boom The Groom 8/1 

Blue De Vega 14/1 

It will simply be a welcome surprise if one of these wins 🙂 And not too much disappointed if none do. You could make a case for many in here, and you could stare at it for two hours and be none the wiser. Best of luck with any bets.

*

Below are some ‘through the card’ notes for Musselburgh, as requested by a member…no time for notes/thinking etc but hopefully some go well…

Muss ‘through the card’

1.40 – Meccas Spirit

2.15 – No Lippy

2.50 – Isabella (should lead,prob one of top two wins but can’t just back shorties!)

3.25 – Unforgettablefilly

4.00 – Zeshov

4.55 – Tallinksi (members tip)  / War Whisper

5.30 – The Last Debutante (may try and make all)

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

12 Comments

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  • I was looking back at some posts for last year for ideas for tomorrow and saw some useful 20 year stats https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2017/06/02/free-daily-post-030617-upd1/

    2:00 – Court House, Connect (bad draw)
    5:15 – Narrows it down to Dash of Spice, Golden Wolf, Lorelina, Barwick, Maquisard, Whinging Willie and Oden
    3:45 – Tarboosh, Pettochside
    2:35 – Didn’t narrow it down much!

    Hope that is useful.

    Chris Marshall 01/06/18 10:55 PM Reply


    • Cheers Chris, forgot about this. BOL

      Tony Mc.

      tonymc 02/06/18 12:17 PM Reply


    • Reverse forecast in the 2:00, winner remained in the 5:15 (although needed narrowing further), 33/1 2nd in the Dash.

      Some decent 20 year stats there!

      Chris Marshall 02/06/18 5:25 PM Reply


  • Just noticed that Artistic Rifles is going in the 2.30 at Donc. Saw this one when withdrawn at Newbury a few weeks ago. Impressive individual although looked a bit fat. Apparently not fancied today and if I was not on holiday and doing ratings he would not be top rated. Nevertheless I will be having a fun bet. Certainly worth keeping an eye on to see how he shapes.
    Hugh

    alpha2 02/06/18 6:34 AM Reply


  • Epsom Dash trends
    15/15 4 – 9 y old
    Youngest 0/47
    15/15 82 – 107
    15/15 top rated or within 22lb
    15/15 top 5 place in last 3 runs
    14/15 Same class as lto or up 1 or 2 classes
    15/15 No more than 6 hcap wins
    0/32 won LTO

    One qualifier JUST THE LORD ..EW

    315 Hexham Mighty leader
    OBrien/Brennan northern courses class 3 to 6 under 61 days since last run 12/15.

    850 Tramore Dramalarma Lucy
    Trainer and jockey last 14 days 3 from 3.

    Robert Bland 02/06/18 7:33 AM Reply


  • A few thoughts for today based on what I can pull out of the trends/stats that I can see..

    200 Indomeneo, Connect (both ew)
    235 Shenanigans, Anna Nerium
    310 Century Dream, Breton Rock
    345 Tarboosh, Boom The Groom, Tanasoq (all ew)
    430 Saxon Warrior, Sevenna Star (to place)
    515 Golden Wolf, Reshoun (both ew)
    550 Terentum Star, Quench Dolly (both ew)

    One proviso is that, whilst I was unable to post yesterday, I did have a fairly good day ( W 5/1, P 11/2, W 2/7, W 5/4, P 10/1, W 7/1 for a profit of just over 8pts at SP) so sods law says that I should not expect much today.

    Good luck with any bets today.

    Simon 02/06/18 9:15 AM Reply


    • Bit of a mixed bag today with a winner at 12/1 in the first; 2nd and 3rd in the second; 11/4 winner in the third; another 12/1 winner in the fourth and then just I place at 8/1 in the last 3 races – anyway, an overall profit to SP of 6.45pts, so no complaints.

      Simon 02/06/18 6:07 PM Reply


  • AW BETS

    No more bets till 1st October not enough meetings at present so will wait for the winter AW meetings.

    colin leafe 02/06/18 10:43 AM Reply


    • Probably for the best Colin, thanks very much for your insights up to now. I shall look forward to October.
      Hugh

      alpha2 02/06/18 11:19 AM Reply


    • Thanks very much for all your efforts through the winter Colin

      Aaron 02/06/18 3:49 PM Reply


  • 5 ITV races at Epsom today, hopefully make some of the losses from yesterday back! Apologies as I don’t have time to do a write up in the notes section so it will be tips and small mentions.

    14:00 Epsom
    1st – Poets Prince -> 84.40 (4/1 gen)
    2nd – Court House -> 78.79 (13/2 gen)
    3rd – Westbrook Bertie -> 73.67 (18/1 gen)
    Notes: None hit all trends, most likely using trends is Ship of the Fen with PP and CH joint 2nd. Tips -> 1pt WIN on Peots Prince.

    14:35 Epsom – Princess Elizabeth Stakes
    1st – Diaphora -> 94.64 (12/1 gen)
    2nd – Wilamina -> 86.75 (11/2 gen)
    3rd – Soul Silver -> 70.11 (33/1 gen)
    Notes: None hit all trends, most likely is Lincoln Rocks with Diaphora second. Tips -> 1pt WIN on Wilamina and 1pt EW on Diaphora.

    15:10 Epsom – Diomed Stakes
    1st – Century Dream -> 93.70 (10/3 gen)
    2nd – Gabrial -> 78.34 (10/1 gen)
    3rd – Sovereign Debt -> 59.70 ( 7/1 gen)
    Notes: Only horse to hit all trends is Gabrial. Tips -> 1pt EW on Gabrial.

    15:45 Epsom – ‘Dash’ Handicap
    1st – Bahamian Sunrise -> 636.81 (25/1 gen)
    2nd – Just That Lord -> 600.29 (25/1 gen)
    3rd – Super Julius -> 428.90 (25/1 gen)
    Notes: Some big prices here but good to see Josh’ notes above point to 2 of the three, probably cursed them both now. Of the top three BS hits all trends. Tips -> 1pt EW on Bahamian Sunrise (getting 5 places).

    16:30 Epsom – Derby
    1st – Hazapour -> 378.95 (12/1 gen)
    2nd – Saxon Warrior -> 355.66 (5/6 gen)
    3rd – Knight to Behold -> 229.01 (25/1 gen)
    Notes: Hazapour is the only one in the race to hit all trends, followed by Saxon Warrior. Tips -> 2pt WIN on Saxon Warrior.

    That’s it for me today. Good luck with whatever you back today (given my recent notes section performance I’d back everything I haven’t tipped :-/).

    Chris M 02/06/18 11:23 AM Reply


  • Day 2 Ratings Epsom. Up to 3paces.

    2.00. Ship of the Fen…..Poets Prince……Book of Dreams.
    2.35.Lincoln Rocks……Shenanigans……Anna Nerium.
    3.10. Breton Rock……Century Dream……Love Dreams.
    3.45. Dark Shot [bad draw]…..Boom The Groom……Bahamian Sunrise.
    4.30. Saxon Warrior……Young Rascal……Masar.
    5.15. Across The Stars [bad draw……Dash of Spice…..Star of the East. ? draw.
    5.50. Brian The Snail……Shanghai Glory……Watchable.

    Phew…There we go all.

    Tony Mc.

    tonymc 02/06/18 12:43 PM Reply


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