Free Daily Post: 01/06/18 (complete)

Some ‘through the card’ notes from the members’ post… the usual caveats, this is quite a brief look and can usually go one of two ways, but with any luck a winner or two there and some interesting snippets hopefully…

Day 1 ‘through the card’ 

2.00 – It’s The Only Way / Marie’s Diamond

Not a race to go mad on if you’re track side, which I know at least one of you is, but Hannon (3/5,4p) and Johnston (4/15,8p) do like winning this race. 

2.35 – Mythical Madness / Medburn Dream 

Mythical Madness is no forlorn hope here at a price, and i’ve been lured in by the Doyle stats. At his best he would go close I think, and has a headgear switch to perk him up. Medburn Dream is just solid in all race conditions and should give this a good go from the front under Franny, hopefully seeing off Johnston’s early enough, or they will both set it up for a close

3.10 – get a drink and enjoy watching class at it’s best in equine form. 

3.45 – Not So Sleepy EW? / Brorocco EW

The fav does look very hard to beat as there is every chance he builds on that last run, definitely one for the place pot. But, funny things can happen here and he may run into trouble. Not So Sleepy looks solid and he really shouldn’t be far away. Maybe a 1-2 with the fav! Brorocco…I was on the fence and didn’t tip him…he is solid but I thought something may be better handicapped and soft is a bit of an unknown in open company- but if he runs his race, he will be thereabouts. 

Fahey/Gosden/Kittow are the trainers with 2 or more wins in this…only Fahey has a runner…I’m not 100% convinced as to his stamina, certainly in this ground, and bar some really bad luck for the fav couldn’t see why that form would be overturned. 

4.30 – Wild Illusion / Flattering 

Wild Illusion, according to both Spencer/Moore blogs today, is the one to beat so i’ll trust their judgement given I don’t really follow G1s that closely, bar watching and enjoying them. Moore says if that one doesn’t win then anything could win this- and we know what AOB outsiders can do, so maybe some change on his bigger priced ones. This race will tap into stamina reserves not yet seen in any of these fillies and something will relish it, and plenty of AOBs are bred to improve for middle distances in time. Maybe Beggy can add the Oaks to his surprise Derby win. Or another biggie will take it. 

5.15 – Lake Volta / Kings Shield

The latter probably a bit short but nothing wrong with wanting ‘winners’ when at the races, and Gosden has done well in this race (2/6,3p). Lake Volta at a price for the SDS stats

5.50 – Belle Meade / Swift Approval EW / Galloway Hill (of those at top) 

Two rags and i’ll touch on Belle Meade above… Swift Approval…seems big for one that is running well, is well enough handicapped, could get on the front end or in any case be in the right spot for a jockey that rides the handicaps well here, and his best turf form seemed to be on soft. I thought he should go well for a long way in this. The top two in the market look solid but 4s in a handicap like this makes me nauseous although they do both looks solid although they will come from further back. Maybe SDS will notch up one for his stats distance + age stats. 

**

 

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  • AW BETS

    May minus – 13.15 points at Bookmakers SP

    Not a good month only 19 bets and not many meetings,will review may take a break till October when the AW starts for the winter,but will let you know in the next couple of days.

    colin leafe 31/05/18 7:34 PM Reply


  • Back with ITV races from Epsom including the Oaks. Five races in total today and I have gave my top 3 rated from each race using my trends/draw/pace bias approach plus some thoughts on the strongest of them. Some tips thrown in there as well but do with the info below as you please. The big question today is the going, a lot of the horse’s today will be unknown or not proven over the going but figuring out who can perform on the going could be key to understanding who will win today.

    14:00 Epsom – Woodcote Stakes
    1st – Maries Diamond -> 139.58 (3/1 gen)
    2nd – Usain Bolt -> 136.33 (8/1 gen)
    3rd – It’s The Only Way -> 106.19 (11/2 gen)
    Notes: None of the top 3 hit all trends that award goes to Cosmic Law. LTO winners have performed well in this race with over 40% of the wins, of the top three Usain Bolt is the only on to have won LTO. I could make a case for all three here but the two that jump out for me are Maries Diamond and Usain Bolt. Tips -> 1pt WIN on Maries Diamond and Usain Bolt.

    14:35 Epsom – Investec Click an Invest Mile Hcp
    1st – Kings Pavilion -> 229.27 (6/1 gen)
    2nd – Masham Star -> 137.71 (4/1 gen)
    3rd – Medburn Dream -> 113.78 (5/1 gen)
    Notes: Of the three Kings Pavilion meets all trends. Pace wise MS and MD both like to be near the front and may contest the lead, this could mean under the softer ground they may tire each other out, this leaves the door open. Of the three Kings Pavilion catches my eye but a smaller bet on Masham Star may be useful also. Tips -> 1pt WIN on King Pavilion and 0.5pt WIN on Masham Star.

    15:10 Epsom – Coronation Cup
    1st – Hawkbill -> 255.65 (7/1 gen)
    2nd – Idaho -> 139.91 (10/1 in places)
    3rd – Cracksman -> 131.58 (3/10 gen)
    Notes: Cracksman is clear fav here but I just can’t bring myself to consider him at that price so I will focus on the others. No horse in the race meets all trends but Idaho rates marginally higher than Hawkbill on the trends front but Hawbill has a more favourable draw it would seem. For me, a small each way bet on Hawkbill is how I will play this one. TIPS -> 0.5pt EW on Hawkbill.

    15:34 Epsom – Investec Wealth & Investment Handicap
    1st – Not So Sleepy -> 173.25 (8/1 gen)
    2nd – Never Surrender -> 157.73 (16/1 gen)
    3rd – Brorocco -> 139.18 (10/1 gen)
    Notes: Last years winners Not So Sleepy heads my ratings here and he is off the same mark he won last year. Last year was good ground but on the softer ground we have today he is just as effective. The trainer also seems to be hitting a nice vein of form at the moment, perfect time for today’s race. Of the other two Brorocco looks the more interesting but I have some niggles on the going so that puts me off. Tips -> 1pt WIN on Not So Sleepy

    TBC!!!
    Unfortunately I have ran out of time while writing this post, got a meeting at 10:30, took longer than had planned when deliberating the notes sections. I will have the final race up by midday.

    Chris M 01/06/18 9:58 AM Reply


    • Thanks Chris. There’s got to be some merit in just backing the selections based on your previous results surely? Was it last week or the week before that you didn’t ‘tip’ a couple of top rated horses and they went in at big prices?

      neilmck 01/06/18 10:08 AM Reply


      • There is merit in backing all three from each race, I don’t have exact figures on the return for that but the reason I try to narrow it down as when I started posting them here (Chester at the start of May) backing all three produced losses due to the winners being short odds. However the tides have turned recently with the last few days of tipping producing some good winners. Last weekend my notes missed some nice winners at 6/1, 7/1 and 10/3 as you said. Backing all three in each of those races would have got you +6.33 pts at SP, much better than my notes produced that day.

        However I post the ratings with the idea it can help people make educated decisions on the race, I post my notes purely to put across my train of thought on the races. Glad you find these posts an interesting read 🙂

        Chris M 01/06/18 10:27 AM Reply


    • The missus informs me the meeting is actually 11:30 not 10:30 so I have time to get the last race reviewed.

      16:30 Epsom – Oaks
      1st – Magic Wand -> 125.04 (5/1 gen)
      2nd – Perfect Clarity -> 117.44 (15/2 gen)
      3rd – Forever Together -> 91.12 (13/2 gen)
      Notes: Of the three Magic Wand hits all trends here. O’Brien has some great form in today’s race but he has sent out more than half the field to try to capture that win. Magic Wand and Forever Together are both trained by him. Perfect Clarity has not put a foot wrong in the two winning starts so far but is one of those unknowns on the ground, she is a great stayer and could prove her ability today. All three have compelling arguments for but the two for me are Magic Wand and Perfect Clarity. TIPS -> 1pt WIN on Magic Wand and Perfect Clarity.

      That’s all for today, back tomorrow with some more ITV races.

      Good luck with whatever you back today!

      Chris M 01/06/18 10:18 AM Reply


    • Well that’s what you call a day to forget! If you had back every horse I did not mention you’d have probably made profit from my top 3.

      In the first Cosmic Law astounded everyone to win confidently, he was mentioned in my notes as he hit all trends but not bet on. The second my old habit of backing all but the winner came back to haunt me. The third, Cracksman won as I expected and my tip faded away quite drastically. The fourth Ajman prove his quality but the trends just didn’t have him winning it. And to finish off in the Oaks I backed 2 out of 3 and of course the winner was the one I didn’t back…..

      Day’s like these make the game frustrating but back on the horse tomorrow and try make that loss back! Hopefully some of you ignored me and backed some winners

      Chris M 01/06/18 4:44 PM Reply


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