Members Daily Post: 30/05/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Beverley 

2.00 – Liamba (micro class + age) (handicap debut) G3 9/1 

3.00- Nature Boy (4yo+ 5yr, 4yo+,m TJC/dist/age) w1 ES+ H3 I3 G1 7/2 S2 S3A S4

3.30 – Waarif (4yo+ 5yr, 4yo+, m TJC) ES+ H3 I3 7/2 S3A 

4.00- Outlaw Torn (all hncps + m going) 20/1

 

Nottingham

2.20 –

Kodyanna (2YO) 12/1

Sabai Sabai (2YO) 7/1

2.50 –

Socialites Red (all hncps) H3 15/2 

Lady Cristal (all hncps) G3 40/1 

Pulsating (m class) H3 I3 12/1 

5.25 – Sarabi (all hncps + class) 5/1

 

Ripon

8.10 – Pipers Note (m going/class move) H3 I3 10/3 

8.40 – Stormin Tom (m class) H3 I3 4/1 

 

JUMPS

Cartmel

2.10 –

Volcanic (m dist) H3 I3 7/2 

Wood Breizh (m runs) 9/1

5.15 –

Lough Kent (m TJC/runs) I1  11/1 S2 S5 

Dodgy Bingo (m runs) 10/1 S2 

Think Ahead (m runs) H3  6/1 

 

Warwick

7.15 – Chase Me (m dist) H1 I3 7/2 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end6th May 2018)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 6th May 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 9/110,35p, +1.5)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +101.5)

NOTES

2.10 Cartmel – Stags Leap – 1 point win – 18/1 (bet365) 16/1 (SkyB) 14/1 (gen) UP 6/1

2.20 Notts- Kodyanna – 1 point win – 12/1 (bet365/BV) 11/1 (gen) 3rd 9/2 

2.50 Notts- Lady Cristal – 1 point win – 33/1 (gen) 

4.20 Notts – Fisher Green – 1 point win – 10/1 (WH) 9/1 (gen)  3rd 4/1 

 

Stags Leap… well this horse isn’t on any stats anywhere on this page, but looked interested when I flicked ‘through the card’ last night, for my maiden voyage to Cartmel later today. It is a poor card in general but this 11 year old looked worth a go here at these odds, given that the horse is 2/3,2p at Cartmel with both wins over CD, and in handicap hurdles… 4/8,5p on good, 4/8,5p LH, 3/5,3p in May/June, 4/6,4p under Henry Brooke. This horse, whose lightly enough raced for his age in hurdles, returned from a lengthy absence two runs back and hasn’t done much as yet – but he has been racing over 16f, in soft, right handed. They are not exactly ideal conditions and given his record here you’d like to think this has been the target. The trainer is 7/71,15p with all handicap hurdlers in the last 5 years, but 4/12,5p at Cartmel, which tells it’s own story as this being a target track for the yard. This doesn’t look a strong race, with Doctor Thea the obvious one IF staying, Volcanic has issues in is head I think but at his best would be thereabouts and Kirby’s just likes winning sellers. All three ‘could’ get stuffed. Anyway, at these odds, given the above, I thought i’d roll the dice, or the marbles!

Kodyanna… a rare bet on a 1st time out 2 year old but given Fahey is 7/21,10p with such types at the track in the last 5 years, and he’s a double figure price, I thought i’d take a chance. The horse is related to some ok types who were precocious enough aged two to do well over 5/6f. I was also nudged into action because she is drawn high, which can be the place to be, and it isn’t impossible she can get the rail at some point, especially if starting well, and that is never a bad thing for an inexperienced horse. The stats for those in the middle/low are not the best and those above him in the market have that to overcome- but clearly they could be classy enough to do so. I also thought she won’t mind if there is some rain, and this ground could go on the soft side given they are in the midst of a heavy burst of rain as I type (according to BHA website) and a few of her relatives didn’t mind cut. It’s a +10 race also, 10k extra to the winner, and you’d have thought a few connections would have spotted that. Clearly the Cox horse is well fancied/related and is fancied to win this, Beckett does ok at the track with 1st 2 YO also, but was half the price and is drawn low, and then there is the Botti horse that has experience and AA on top. The market clearly points to one of those 3 taking this but given the Fahey stats and some positives re the horse/breeding/draw/possible going, worth a stab at a double figure price to me.

Lady Cristal… If I have this somewhat more carefree attitude to horses priced 18s/20s+ I may actually start bagging a few more in the notes horses. Clearly the market isn’t expecting much but Burke does have the odd biggie fall in and PJ is riding at the top of his game. This 4year old is still lightly enough raced in handicaps, moving up in trip and back down in class. She runs as if he wants 6f or further now and the run LTO was after 3 months+ off the track. She ran ok to a point and her mark keeps plummeting. It is the kind of ‘unexposed’ (only 3rd run on turf over the trip,first as a 4yo) / doing something different profile, that would tip me over the edge if she were to win at those odds. A change in going would be a complete unknown, given her best form to date has been on GF, but if i’d had that correct attitude with Parole that profile pile would look a tad healthier. I’ll roll the dice, and at least she shows up ok on GG speed figures.

Fisher Green…one from the Fell test below, and no doubt i’ve picked the wrong one, but I thought he looked most interesting. The trainer is 4/17,11p in the last 14 days, so they are going ok! On that basis alone they may all be worth change at BFSP, although my head says some of them look up against it, but that’s the point in such an approach. ‘Form/profile’ analysis isn’t what it’s made out to be sometimes. This horse is lightly raced and moves up in trip here and down in class, on his third run for the yard and third of the season. He ran well at Doncaster over 7f, plugging on. They then ran him a day later and given he’d just returned after a monster break, I’m happy to put a line through that. I thought he looked worth a go back over 10f and after his maiden win it looked like he just lost the plot for Dodds, so most of that form may be worth ignoring. He may want rain to take the sting out but in any case, in what looked an open enough race, 9s was just big enough to tempt me in. He has that sort of profile that will be worth tracking as canny connections will get a win out of him soon enough I suspect.

So, four proper pokes, one could win, all four could win, all four could still be running by the time I leave Cartmel, such is the joy of the big odds game. My head is in a better place now, a few days too late mind, but there we go. Another spike is on it’s way, at some point. 🙂

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5 Furlong Sprint Handicaps – Test (0/3,3p, -3)

None today, running out of time.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat

Roger Fell

2.00 Bev- Sienna Says

4.20 Nott- Fisher Green (not Hamilton)

7.05 Rip- Elixsoft

8.10 Rip – Zylan

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Cartmel…there wasn’t too much else which jumped off the page at me..

2.40 – Earth Lady for change given down in class, up in trip, hood on, first run after wind op- and it’s a selling handicap hurdle. A ‘track side’ nibble at 14s+. Probably tailed off.

3.10 – Boss De Mottes/Motion To Strike

4.40- Mighty Whitey / Hit And Run, for change at double figure odds, and I suppose I should back Nick’s tip just in case 🙂 That looks a tough race.

5.15 – Tontos Spirit probably makes all I suspect, but is a short enough price.

We shall see how some of those do. I’ll be hoping some leap off the page in the paddock, using my dodgy eye.

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NOTE: Thursday’s post may be up later than usual this evening, I won’t be back from Cartmel until 8/9 ish I doubt, but i’ll get Section 1 up this evening.

Tomorrow i’ll re-write the welcome info with some guidance on what strategies you may wish to start on at least through until September when Geegeez Speed returns for Jumps.

In short…Flat… S4 S6 , Jumps S2A … both… S3A ‘Double/Treble Rated’ (ES+, + two or three red symbols, two at Beverley above) is looking good, but i suppose we should wait until through the 100 mark for added confidence, but such is the sound logic (I think) and the constant that is the ratings pointers, touch wood, hopefully that will tick along and be a 50-80 point strategy a year. The aim is to try and create a 100+ point strategy portfolio for the year. With any luck those four do that comfortably (even without S2A which can be too choppy for some).

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

36 Comments

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  • Socialites Red Nottingham Wednesday 14:50 1pt e/w
    El Principe Beverley Wednesday 15:30 1pt e/w
    Lord Topper Warwick Wednesday 20:20 1pt e/w
    Strong Team Cartmel Wednesday 16:40 1pt e/w

    Nick Mazur 29/05/18 10:20 PM Reply


    • Nick, get yourself a bottle of champagne, fantastic stuff, thank you so much!

      Paul

      PAUL EBREY 30/05/18 3:34 PM Reply


    • Brilliant tipping Nick- What a great start!

      reillysmiley 30/05/18 3:34 PM Reply


    • That’s some impressive tipping Nick, thanks. Praying for the third now!

      neilmck 30/05/18 3:35 PM Reply


    • Quality Nick, Thanks Mate!

      Jim 30/05/18 3:37 PM Reply


    • Unbelievable stuff! Yankee anybody?

      Darren C 30/05/18 3:38 PM Reply


    • Two up and two to go! I have pre ordered a new Range Rover and am awaiting the other two going in before I press the button. Nice that you are on top form, well done.

      martin colwell 30/05/18 3:40 PM Reply


      • I have £10 YANKEE ON THE SELECTIONS and so a NR stimies the Range Rover. So all on the 4.40.

        martin colwell 30/05/18 4:27 PM Reply


        • Void race! So two non runners in effect.

          martin colwell 30/05/18 4:52 PM Reply


          • So it was. +135 points from Nick’s tips today. Jeebus.

            neilmck 30/05/18 4:59 PM Reply


    • hope your enjoying your holiday Nick , 2 winners @ 8-1 and 20-1 ,a n/r, all i need is Strong Team for a grand+ fingers crossed 🙂

      martin whittle 30/05/18 3:43 PM Reply


      • The very best of luck with the final selection Martin

        Aaron 30/05/18 3:48 PM Reply


    • Wow….take a bow young Sir…
      Fantastic and thanks so much for your time & sharing

      lightowlers 30/05/18 3:45 PM Reply


    • Absolutely brilliant selections Nick I had the first winner but I could of been there all day and I still couldn’t have found that 20/1 winner there’s tipping services charging telephone number figures for a month that you would put to shame

      Aaron 30/05/18 3:46 PM Reply


    • CAN’T BE ANYTHING MORE THAN IMPRESSED NICK .. WELL DONE SIR !! 2 OUT OF 2 SO FAR 🙂 FEET UP NOW AND RELAX KNOWING I CAN AFFORD CHIPS AND RICE THIS EVENING !! 🙂

      BC 30/05/18 3:46 PM Reply


    • Nick well done just like shelling peas,keep it up.

      colin leafe 30/05/18 3:47 PM Reply


    • Need strong team too for a fantastic return. Thanks so much Nick!!

      Aidan Trimble 30/05/18 4:10 PM Reply


    • Great stuff Nick, many thanks !!

      Chris

      broadsword 30/05/18 7:11 PM Reply


    • Incredible tipping Nick! many thanks for a great day!

      Steven Cartwright 30/05/18 8:11 PM Reply


    • Superb thank you Nick!

      Had a yankee as well as singles, brilliant!

      Chris Murrell 30/05/18 9:36 PM Reply


  • Josh

    LTO losers

    No qualifiers today.

    Mike

    mickeydee 30/05/18 8:32 AM Reply


  • Have a little bit of info about Heartwarming in the 2.20 at Notts. Price has already gone I’m afraid but Clive Cox rates the filly and has been burning up the gallops. 2 year old debutants are never a safe bet but he has big hopes for her this summer.

    Cheers

    Ben

    921389 30/05/18 9:56 AM Reply


    • NR – going.

      chrisrees 30/05/18 11:29 AM Reply


      • Thanks Chris,

        Yeah apparently CC didn’t want to risk her after he walked the track.

        Ben

        921389 30/05/18 1:21 PM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Beverley
    2.00 Kingstreet Lady
    3.30 Club Wexford

    Is this summer yet again ground conditions are a worry,the two bets should handle the conditions if Beverley turns to gd/soft or even soft both have very good draws and for me are worth backing.
    Notice the global warmers are quite this year, thinking of putting the heating on!!!

    colin leafe 30/05/18 10:11 AM Reply


  • Good luck at Cartmel. Looks an interesting track. Grass dog track with a stone wall around the outside. Bumper Lake District crowds and lots of caravans. What is the local beer up there?
    I have a micro which says J Moffatt runners at the track, 2M F +, less than 3 runs this season. That gives us Wood Breizh 2.10 and 4 in the 5.10, Lough Kent, Dodgybingo, Think Ahead and Golden Town.
    I also have a micro for Jedd O’Keefe runners up in distance, less than 16/1. In the 2.10 Doctor Thea fits the bill. So I will go 2 points win on this one at 3/1 BOG.
    We made 6 points on Monday and I am now +10.75 points up in May.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 30/05/18 11:02 AM Reply


    • Real ale in abundance so best to employ a driver for a month or 2 when visiting.
      Mike

      titus_a_duxass 30/05/18 11:13 AM Reply


    • I missed Smart Ruler for Moffatt in the 5.15 and so he has 5 runners in that race!

      martin colwell 30/05/18 11:25 AM Reply


  • Thanks guys. Fingers crossed for the last one. Principe did look a ridiculous price last night. Sadly holiday over and at home with something resembling a migraine but this certainly helps.

    Nick Mazur 30/05/18 3:56 PM Reply


    • The £10 yankee has paid £8470 with the two non runners!!

      Nick, you have my email address, let me have your address and your favoured tipple and I will send you a crate in thanks.

      Many thanks Martin

      martin colwell 30/05/18 5:17 PM Reply


      • Blimey Martin, some day to put that bet on and get the two winners. Nick informs me that’s the first day since November he’s had two winners in a day on official tips, so if you could pick some lotto numbers for us all that would be great haha. Well done. And well doe Nick obviously. On for his best ever month at a time when many have struggled! Judge.

        Josh 30/05/18 5:50 PM Reply


        • Yes it was. I did the same bet on the SP2A selections but that went down. Nothing much else stood out today and I picked the right day to use my stake on such bets. I also have a £55 win double on Al Barg, 7.40 Rip and MC Muldoon, 9.10 Rip and so not done yet.

          martin colwell 30/05/18 6:30 PM Reply


          • MC Muldoon is a NR

            neilmck 30/05/18 6:38 PM Reply


            • Not another one! There must be 20 non runners every day now?

              martin colwell 30/05/18 6:41 PM Reply


  • Quality Nick so glad that I started following you when you first started posting,long may it continue many thanks

    christopher jones 30/05/18 3:56 PM Reply


  • Great Tipping Nick.
    Thanks. Bank looking Much Healthier Now.
    Did A Yankee. and was Waivering Whether to Cash out after First Two Had Gone in and a Non Runner.
    Glad I Didn’t.
    But Would Strong Team Have Got There . Would Certainly have been a Tremendous Pay out
    Very Happy.
    R

    Richard Hannell 30/05/18 5:21 PM Reply


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