Members Daily Post: 29/05/18 (complete)

91.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Redcar

4.00- Carlton Frankie (micro TJC) H1 I1 G1 5/2 S1 S4 WON 5/2>7/4

 

Brighton

6.20 – 

Arctic Sea (all hncps) I3 G1 4/1 S2  UP (unlucky,would have won but for clear run) 

Sayesse (m dist) H1 I1 G3 8/1 S1 S2 S4 S6  UP

Good Luck Charm (m going) 14 I3 7/1 UP

7.20 – 

Sussex Girl (all hncps) w2 G1 6/1 S6 

Stormingin (m class/going) 14 H1 I3 G3 11/10 S2 S4 

7.50 – Roy Rocket (all hncps) H3 I3 2/1 

 

Leicester

NONE. 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end6th May 2018)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 6th May 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 9/106,33p, +5.5)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +101.5)

NOTES

6.20 Bright- Sayesse – 1 point win – 7/1 (gen) UP, didn’t do much at all there really, and had a fairly frenetic pace to aim at. 

That will be all for ‘tips’.

To my eyes 7s is just too big for this horse in this race and I can only think he was put in at those odds due to that last run at Yarmouth- the fact he returns just 6 days later here suggests we can just put a line through that. Whether or not something upset him, or the ground was as hard as when Blessed ran there a couple of weeks ago (she changed legs 7 times in the race) and he just didn’t fancy it, who knows. The fact he’s won on GS may suggest that he doesn’t want it like a road, even with the odd decent run on ‘good to firm/firm’. I think the form of his last run is built into the odds, in the context of this race/the oppo. If one track gets a drenching today it’s likely to be Brighton and with a win on GS he shouldn’t mind what the whether does, and if there is rain it may inconvenience others. If he came here on the back of his effort over CD three runs back, he’d be joint 7/2 fav. On his penultimate start he ran over 8f in a C3, and ran like a non stayer, certainly at that class. He is 1/2,2p here and this is only his 3rd ever turf run over 7f – he is unexposed over the trip. Callum Sheppard jumps back aboard and these two have a good record together, 1/4,2p. How Black Caesar is half the odds is anyones guess, given in that run here on the 24th when Sayesse came second he was around 8l ahead of him. Maybe they will be closer today but if the selection runs his race, he should finish ahead of him on my reading of things. The horse had some decent form as a 3YO last year, with wins at C3 level, and off a mark of 83 on Turf, so he’s back below his last winning turf mark, with some decent placed efforts off higher. The horse can be slow away and as with any horse that races at Brighton, probably thinks about the game a bit too much sometimes! If on a going day, and if repeating that run here 3 starts back, I think he beats this lot. There is the odd bit of pace and hopefully it’s run at a decent clip but in any case hopefully CS (who’s also in form and riding well) is switched on and gets after him early, as he sees this trip out well on the evidence of his last run here. In any case, more than happy to have a dart at 7s here. I can leave Arctic Sea at 4s given the first time blinkers and he runs as if 7f in a small field here may be too sharp- although if the blinkers work maybe they will try and make all. I don’t think he wants rain but he is unexposed and a danger. I can leave the 9 YO of Gary Moore’s and will cope just fine if he takes this. The yard is in form and they remove the headgear, which can work equal wonders to putting it on. 

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Re-cap… sometimes you just have to smile, or cry… but it’s fare to say that my infamous Opus Dei kit, which hasn’t been in use since before Xmas, has been in overdrive this afternoon, blood everywhere. (metaphorically speaking!) Betting on horses, and certainly tipping, is all in the head, and if you’re not in the right frame of mind, you can get it very wrong. Had I tipped some winners recently and that ‘notes’ profit pile were on 35+ points say, it’s highly likely I’d have tipped the 5 horses mentioned in section 2 on Monday, (underlined/italic/bold…which, as touched on before, is some indication that I have something on, usually a 1/4 point, sometimes 1/2) and we’d be sat here on 2/5,3p, +33 points for the day, +38.5 overall.

Quite simply, I have bottled it. That’s a result of the losing run and the resulting lack of confidence. I had consciously become scared of losing in recent days, and that isn’t a good place to be in! That mindset makes you raise the threshold for something becoming a tip, almost looking for a perfection which doesn’t exist,and hiding behind ‘mentioning’ a horse, as a sort of safety blanket. The point of moving from a ‘bet of the day’ approach, to a ‘notes’ approach was exactly for days like Monday – it is meant to liberate my thinking and give horses at a price more of a chance. Instead I have become consumed by self doubt- which is exactly the opposite of my March-April Festival tipping bonanza mindset. It’s a funny old game. Part of my problem is that I have started thinking about my tipping point stake- £20- and mentioning it as a factor…which is just bollocks quite frankly. Whether I’m betting £1, £5 or £100, it shouldn’t be impacting on whether a horse becomes a tip. Nor should a losing run north of 20, not at the odds I play at. So, I need to eradicate that thinking. 

Those two winners could have been tipped..why… 

Clemento- the ‘way in’ was that he was a previous tip at some point on his last three runs, at Catterick I think, and was now running first time up in a novice hurdle. The trainer stats and the fact he was 20/1 should have just tipped me over the edge. The trainer was ‘in form’ and he was 2/6,5p at the track in non handicap hurdles in the previous 5 years, 3/9,7p at the track in total in that time. They generally run their race. He was in the could be anything category in this sphere and those stats would suggest he was here to run his race if good enough. 20/1. Roll the dice. That’s a price where, given the trainer, you can take a chance on their first start over hurdles. 

Parole – tipped three days ago at 25/1 at Pontefract… the core reason being as it is for many flat horses…unexposed and more to come one day, this one already had some decent form in the book, at a decent enough level. He moved up in class here which I wasn’t concerned about given the odd run last year. He was better drawn today and moved up in distance- which was obvious would suit. There were excuses for his run LTO, I part thought ground, but also the jockey made no effort to get a decent position, travelling 5 wide. The ‘ground’ niggle was a bottle job, and I knew while I was typing. Yes both his handicap wins has come with cut..but, when a horse hasn’t even run on Good to Firm, how the hell can you say that they won’t handle it?? He hadn’t proven it, and in any case, trusting going descriptions without the use of times on the day is always precarious. In that situation it comes down to price..16s/18s is big enough, given the other positives and the fact he was tipped LTO, to take a chance on the going. Poor. 

Still, I’ll take the positives – previous tips are proving a very good ‘way in’ and the fact those 5 horses were mentioned/underlined/italics/bold is some indication that I’m doing something right in the analysis, just not that final step, which is for the reasons discussed above. For someone who’s tipped +295 points of winners since Sept 1st at a ROI that I think is north of 60/70%, you would have thought confidence wouldn’t be a problem. Work to do, but in any case I hope some of you backed one or more of those winners today, and Jumps S2A followers had a 16/1 winner to cheer also. (and that profit pile is where it is because I’m very hard on myself, which is necessary in this game, especially when your drive is solving the puzzle and being right, and that’s something you haven’t been doing recently!) 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

5 Furlong Sprint Handicaps – Test (0/3,3p, -2)

6.10 Wolvs – Krystallite – 5/1- 6/1 2nd – went off far too hard I think, probably clings on with a more patient ride out in front, but inexperienced jockey so can’t moan too much, he will learn from that. 

Two third places yesterday and given my approach with this test with any luck most of them will run well/be close to the money. Remember I’m using Geegeez + Inform Speed ratings as my ‘way in’ – focussing on those near the top of the speed ratings, and then seeing if I can make a case at the odds. This one has won after a similar break here before and I think there is every chance she can attempt to make all, if sharp enough and getting away. I think she may be the sort who sulks if not leading so we may know our fate early. The jockey has some decent stats to his name for a 7lb claimer and she is well handicapped with that taken off. Given her record after a break, she’s worth an interest (for test purposes! Don’t go backing these just yet unless you use these as a ‘way in’ and come to your own decision) 

The other race of interest was the 4.00 Redcar…Carlton Frankie would be the one in the 4.00 but her price is long gone. She was 10/3 last night which looks decent now! I expect her to blast out, make all, and this mediocre bunch won’t have seen which way she’s gone. She should be doing that anyway, given her last two runs in decent C2s, this being a not so decent C4. The hood comes on, and provided this doesn’t come too soon, should be bang there/winning eased down/a shade cosily. 

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NOTE: I’m training it back up to Liverpool today, I’ll be back by 5 pm or so and Wednesday’s post should be up around the usual time. I think I’m off to Cartmel for the first time on Wednesday, although I fear it could be a wash out. But I’ll have a good look at the card. Later in the week I will focus on Epsom, and see if any trainer stats/trends. I like attacking ‘The Dash’ for interest and one member has emailed asking for some ‘through the card’ notes for the two days, so I’ll see what I can do, and also one of you is off to Musselburgh on the Sat also and has bravely requested some thoughts. I’ll get the coffee ready for Friday 🙂 I’ll also record some videos. I have just Ffos Las and Newmarket July course to complete on the Flat stats pack, and will get that done this week, and I think the Summer Jumps is done also. And I’ll get results updated/links in Key updates/welcome info|guidance for the Flat strategies/content updated. 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

26 Comments

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  • Josh
    We have all been there at some time, taken the foot off the pedal, Bottled it etc call it what you like but we all like what you are doing or we wouldn’t be here.
    Following your selections, losers NTO x 3 is well worth a 1/4,1/2 or 1pt win or ew whatever is your preference even going in blind as you have already picked the horse for the job in hand but you can’t always lead it to the finishing post!!
    If you can’t make it pay the first time make it the second or third time out for PROFIT then we bin it.

    Keep them coming Josh they will be profitable 2nd or 3rd time if they lose when you TIP it or NOTE it.

    Mike

    mickeydee 28/05/18 8:16 PM Reply


    • Hi Josh, the fact that you noted the horses on top of Mike’s LTO tips was enough for me to take a small bet on them. The LTO horses that Mike has been putting up recently seems to show that you are finding the right horses, maybe not just the right race but as he said, they often come good NTO or next again. I’ll be following with interest.

      Ken McKenzie 28/05/18 11:18 PM Reply


      • Have to agree with Mike and Ken.
        Plus I’ve backed the odd losing ‘note’ when I’ve noticed them next time out since around Easter and after yesterday will be over 70pts up. Not at home atm so can’t be specific but I’m sure backing all runners nto is very profitable as I missed some juicy ones before starting to back them. Mike’s got them in a tracker I assume so thankyou Mike for highlighting them all.
        Mike

        titus_a_duxass 29/05/18 8:10 AM Reply


        • Thanks gents, oh yep I have no issue with long term confidence/belief, I think this is just part of the cyclical process you go through when hitting a losing run, but to be successful it’s about how you control that, and try and maintain consistency in approach, when going through a low. These are the challenging times..when you’re ‘in form’ everything just seems to jump of the page and there is a care free attitude to putting up a horse almost, it’s a strange thing.

          Yep I’m not surprised LTO tips/notes could be very profitable on next start/next 3, stop at a winner/after 3 more blanks, maybe with decreasing stakes for each run after initial tip. Especially for flat notes horses and handicap hurdlers, as ‘generally’ the focus is on unexposed horses that should deliver at some point, bettering their previous performances to date- so it makes sense they go in at some point, based on my approach to the original analysis. Even more of a positive if they are then doing something different and/or valid excuse can be made for last run…that’s the case with Albareeq recently, the Loughnane 25/1 winner at Beverley, Parole, Clemento. Clearly much more of my focus should be on those, and thanks to Mike for posting. I will get my arse in gear in terms of trawling through and adding to trackers also. I’m leaving a lot of profit sat there, or have been doing.
          Josh

          Josh 29/05/18 10:40 AM Reply


        • “I assume Mike has them in a tracker”. I had to laugh at that. If you knew Mike like I do that will be the back of a couple of fag packets lol 🙂 Still thanks for putting them up Mike.

          Ken McKenzie 29/05/18 1:27 PM Reply


          • Oh, I thought I was the only one left , lol
            Mike

            titus_a_duxass 29/05/18 2:23 PM Reply


  • One winner today with Precious Silk in the 4.25 but still ended up with 0.5pt loss on the day.

    Two AW meetings tomorrow at Lingfield and Wolves. Qualifiers as follows:
    Lingfield
    2.10 Gypsy Spirit 11/2 & Nina Petrovna 4/1
    2.40 Kath’s Lustre 7/1
    5.10 Rustang 5/1 & Kittileo 4/1

    Wolves
    6.10 Savannah Beau 12/1
    8.10 Singular Quest 7/1 & Cool Music 16/1
    8.40 Prying Pandora 9/1
    1pt win each

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 28/05/18 11:26 PM Reply


  • Morning Josh, et al,

    I have constantly used Mark Coton books for reference down the years and his 100 hints for better betting is a constant in my arsenal against the bookies.
    Josh, i refer you to hint 61 , Never brood over what might have been. The last paragraph is relevant… We can learn our lessons in the cold light of a post-mortem. The worst possible time to be changing ones mind about a bet, or brooding about a past mistake is when the prices are posted and the runners are at the start of a race. Panic ensues, followed by bad decisions. A vicious spiral may develop if we are not in the midst of one already.
    Often, we will have to make the best of a bad job. On occasion, we will have to sit out and watch a horse we should have backed win. So be it.

    Stewart 29/05/18 8:23 AM Reply


    • Always give yourself time to think and reflect on what works and what could be better and why? I like that Josh does not tip every day. Far too much of that about everywhere. Also keep emotions out of tipping/betting.

      martin colwell 29/05/18 9:44 AM Reply


      • Yep, you do have to give yourself a good flogging every now and then! 🙂 And my emotion is never ‘look how much I could have won’, it never has been, I just don’t like being wrong, or being close to getting right but not quite doing so. The emotions/head/thinking just hasn’t been quite right, influenced by the losing run etc, it’s getting to a point where that doesn’t have an impact, if that’s ever possible. I enjoy looking at results/horses/’mentions’ and working out why they won, why something wasn’t tipped that won on stats list, and what I can do better moving forward- you have to do that, but in the right way- and not for long- the negatives form yesterday have been flushed out, now about applying the positives moving forwards and trying to get better on the notes front again, which will come. A fair few winners have been ‘mentioned’ in Section 2 the last few weeks, and a few losers, but just a case of tipping the buggers. On we go.
        Josh

        Josh 29/05/18 10:35 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Redcar
    3.00 Thornaby Nach
    4.00 Carlton Francis
    Lingfield
    4.10 Jashma
    Brighton
    6.20 Sayesse
    6.20 Sarangoo
    8.50 Tigerwolf

    colin leafe 29/05/18 8:51 AM Reply


  • I like the name change you have applied to Carlton Frankie Colin. If any of his ability from last season remains, he really should laugh at this lot!

    Francis 29/05/18 9:53 AM Reply


    • I already made the same mistake whilst talking to Josh earlier but Frankie is a she 😉

      Nick Mazur 29/05/18 10:04 AM Reply


      • That’s good news Nick, I’ll be able to kiss her when she wins!

        Francis 29/05/18 11:45 AM Reply


  • Josh

    LTO Losers did us proud yesterday Clemento and Parole.

    There are no qualifiers today.

    Mike

    mickeydee 29/05/18 10:41 AM Reply


  • I’m planning on paper trading half a dozen systems/tipsters from here and other places from 1st June.

    Can anyone recommend anything to help recording the results? Is it the old paper and pen job or are there any apps/ excel templates out there I can use.

    Work long and late hours and have a young baby so time is at a premium….I’m not just being lazy (well maybe a tad)

    Thanks

    Chris Sengelow 29/05/18 12:54 PM Reply


    • I can send you my spreadsheet that does track systems and tipsters by ‘points’ won or lost on a daily and cumulative basis. I will send you a recent section of it without the formulas that convert the data into graphs. You can email me at mcolwell1959@aol.com.

      I would back them for a small amount rather than paper trade to make it more realistic if you only have six.

      martin colwell 29/05/18 1:22 PM Reply


    • Well there is a results spreadsheet /video guide in the welcome link in the Key,mid way down. That may help. But a paper/pen job for P/L may be simple enough but results for most will be kept by me/people posting but is useful in terms of what prices you bet/how you bet/when etc.
      Josh

      Josh 29/05/18 1:33 PM Reply


      • One that I used when I had multiple bog bookies on a/c is very good and covers most needs of a daily punter can be found at http://www.racing-systems.co.uk/software/bet-Record/. Can be either excel or open office. Quite easy to personalise and there is a guide somewhere at the site.
        Mike

        titus_a_duxass 29/05/18 2:48 PM Reply


        • Thanks I’ll have a look at them all. Martin, I’ve dropped you an email.

          Chris Sengelow 29/05/18 6:05 PM Reply


  • Today’s selections 29.5.18
    Peace Dreamer 16:00 at Redcar @ 8.40
    The Way You Dance 16:40 at Lingfield @ 5.50
    Erin 19:45 at Gowran Park @ 9.80

    Richard 29/05/18 3:17 PM Reply


  • Help any alternative to Oddschecker on their website now having just arrived home,but if there is another one would like for back up no doubt will have missed some prices on the golf by having to go out this morning.

    colin leafe 29/05/18 4:16 PM Reply


    • http://odds-comparison.co.uk/
      Not as clear as OC but generally covers all needs
      Mike

      titus_a_duxass 29/05/18 4:46 PM Reply


      • I should add it’s not as comprehensive either

        titus_a_duxass 29/05/18 4:49 PM Reply


  • Colin, I used EASYODDS.COM this morning when Oddschecker was down. Not as good as Oddschecker as you don’t get the price History benefit but it is a useful backup.

    Mark Burns 29/05/18 5:43 PM Reply


    • Thank you
      Titus and Marc for the comparison sites they are down as backup

      colin leafe 29/05/18 5:52 PM Reply


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