Members Daily Post: 28/05/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Leicester

4.40- Aclimatise (all hncps + micro age) w1 14 ES+H1 G3 7/2 S3A 3rd 

 

Redcar

4.10 – Abareeq (all hncps/3yo+, + m going) w1 14 I1 7/1 S6 UP

4.45 – 

X Rated (all hncps + m going) 14 I3 5/1 UP

Flettfoot Jack (m TJC) H3 G1 4/1  S2 UP

Aelius (m TJC) 16/1 UP

5.20 – 

Sunrise (m TJC/age) H3 G3 2/1 S5 3rd 

Kings Coinage (m class move) I3 16/1 UP

 

Windsor

5.55 – 

Six Strings (m dist + age) I3 9/1  UP

Equitation (m runs) w2 H3 I3 11/4 

 

JUMPS

Huntingdon 

3.45 – Krugermac (not hncps) 14 10/1 S2 UP

4.20 – 

Norse Light (all hncps) H3 I3 6/1 S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP) UP

Purple N Gold (m TJC) H3 I3 12/1 S2 S5 UP

 

Cartmel 

2.45 – 

Cowslip (m dist) 9/1 UP

Chocolat Noir (m runs this season) 16/1 S2A 3rd 16/1>14/1 

3.20 – 

Souriyan (all hncps + m age) w1 H1 I1 10/3 UP

Morning Royalty (m runs) H3 I1 4/1 UP 

3.55 – Buachaill Alainn (all hncps) 16/1 S2A WON 16/1>9/1 

4.30 – 

Nicolas Chauvin (m runs) I3 10/1 S2 S5 UP

Lough Kent (m runs) w2 25/1 S2A UP

5.05 – 

Alderbrook Lad (m dist) I1 5/1 WON 5/1 

Boa Island (m dist) 7/1 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end6th May 2018)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 6th May 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 9/106,33p, +5.5)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +101.5)

NOTES

No tips today. There isn’t anything I appear to be too confident on for tipping purposes which in part may be the result of being a tad out of form/hitting an indecisive phase. This game is all in the head. 

There are a handful of interest which may run well for a small interest. Clemento WON 20/1>11/1 – highlighted by Mike in the comments as a recent tip – that was on the flat and this one now tackles a novice hurdle at Cartmel, 16s-20/1. Anything could happen I suppose, but the trainer is 2/6,5p at the track in non handicaps, although there are two very well fancied ones in this and it may be mildly surprising if neither wins. 

I stared at Chocolat Noir 2nd 16/1 in the 2.45 Cartmel but couldn’t bring myself to tip her- I watched her run back LTO and the jumping was a bit scratchy and she just didn’t show enough…this is her 4th handicap hurdle and she drops into a C5 here, with a 1st time visor- so unexposed and doing a few things different, but she has still yet to win a race in her career, having starting on the Flat. Trainer/Jockey are 4/20,9p in all handicaps at the track, Brooke rides this place well and is 6/24,10p in handicap hurdles over this distance. It is a weak race and I won’t be shocked if she takes a step forward. 

Abareeq UP runs again, having bolted up LTO which was the time for me to tip him again and I’ve missed that boat and don’t wish to go chasing. We should probably cut our losses if getting something back on that win LTO. He moves up to a C2 here from C4 and I think that could be within range- it’s the move back down in trip to 10f which may not suit as much but he is an S6 qualifier and I’ve had one more go with my S6 bank/stake. 

Six Strings UP I will mention as he looks interesting for EJH and could be one worth tracking…he had some decent placed form in C2s for Fahey, aged 3, and I suspect there will be more to come at some point this year… he runs as if he is crying out for 7f and he did run well to a point in the Victoria Cup LTO…this is clearly some drop in class, into much calmer waters. I was on the fence at 9s…IF they go a pace here/he can go with them, I doubt he will be too far away. I wasn’t sure this would be run to suit or he’d have the pace, but I could have that wrong. The trainer will get handicap wins out of him, esp given the ability he showed last year. I think he may need a bigger field/stiffer track over this distance. But, he’s interesting. 

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Note: Parole, WON 16/1>8/1 tipped 3 days back at 25s (no rain, stuck 4/5 wide whole race- no effort to get out/across, or back and tucked in, plodded on into midfield, a step up on his seasonal debut) runs in the 4.45 Redcar..he moves up in class which I don’t think is so much of an issue and he does move back up to 10f…were this on soft, I’d probably be going in again at 16s. However, it’s on Good to Firm, which he has never raced on in handicaps, and that is the question. Both his wins have been on GS and Soft. The tongue tie also returns for the first time this season, which is interesting. After that last run, and given it looks like he is best with cut (but firm is an unknown, we can’t say he definitely doesn’t handle it) I couldn’t be confident to tip him, but I may have to throw a 1/4 point just in case… I’m sure he will show himself to be well handicapped when getting his ideal conditions) 

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Re cap- Some Invitation…hmm… the horse version of Liverpool. Good early position, lost confidence,couldn’t go pace,scrubbed along and pulled up I think. Tears everywhere. Poor. Less said about that one the better. 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide) 

3.10 Hunt – Walden Prince PU

Jonjo Handicap Debut (10/1< best) 

4.20 Hunt – Best Practice 

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best) 

4.30 Cart- Endless Credit UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Flat Sprint Test 

(0/2,2p, -2)

I thought I’d try and start dabbling again on some sprint handicaps- sticking to 5f only – and just using Geegeez/Inform Speed ratings as my main guide, with some form/profile/trainer/jockey analysis etc. When it’s quiet/I have some time/I can’t find anything to tip in section 2, I’ll try and highlight some horses of interest. I really need to add another string to my bow on the Flat. I wouldn’t necessarily back these as yet, but in time we can see how they do. 

3.35 Redcar- Miss DD – 6/1 3rd 

5.35 Chelm- Elliot The Dragon – 9/2  3rd 

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

11 Comments

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  • Results for last week. 4pts staked, 0 winners, -4pts profit. Still up 18pts in May. Hopefully a couple of winners to boost the bank before end of May

    Five AW meetings to get stuck into this week, the first of which is at Chelmsford tomorrow. Qualifiers as follows:
    2.05 Treasure Quest 5/1
    4.25 Precious Silk 9/2 & Mimram 4/1
    5.00 Naralsaif 5.86 taken on BFEx (Currently below 4/1 with bookies)
    5.35 Elliot the Dragon 5/1 & Swift Fox 11/2
    1pt win each

    I still generally use bookies with BOG but I am now taking 5.0 or above on BFEx if bookies are below 4/1. You could use this approach or set 5.0 as minimum BSP which would catch any drifters.

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 27/05/18 8:34 PM Reply


  • Have a good night off you deserve it after last night (LOL)

    Solent 27/05/18 10:11 PM Reply


    • haha, I’ve just about got over than shambles, although my tip then decided to compound the misery and be beaten by halfway or so! On we go.

      Josh 28/05/18 11:49 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Chelmsford
    2.40 Ettie Hart
    3.15 Mishaal
    Leicester
    4.40 Aclimatise
    Redcar
    3.35 Miss DD
    4.45 X Rated
    4.45 Parole
    5.20 Breakwater Bay

    colin leafe 28/05/18 9:07 AM Reply


    • Nice results in the 4:45 Colin!!!! Thank a tonne

      Nige C 28/05/18 4:55 PM Reply


  • Josh
    There are 5 of your Notes, Tips running again today.
    Abereeq won lto made a profit on it.
    CLEMENTO Cartmel 2.10
    25/4 Catt Notes
    Timeform Half-brother to fair hurdler/chaser Moss Street (2m-2¼m winner). Fair maiden on Flat, stays 1½m, below form last time. Yard do well with such types over timber, however.
    FORTHEFUNOFIT Cartmel 3.20
    26/4 War Notes
    Timeform Dual winner (at up to 23.5f) in 2016/17. Entitled to have needed last month’s return at Warwick after more than a year off and headgear goes back on now. Could go well.
    SELDOM INN Cartmel 3.55
    7/4 Kelso TIP
    Timeform Capable on his day and put in a good shift when third off 2 lb higher at Perth (23.8f, soft) last month. Signs are that he’s becoming increasingly temperamental, though, and others look stronger here.
    PAROLE you have already mentioned

    Mike

    mickeydee 28/05/18 9:54 AM Reply


    • Cheers Mike, the JJ Quinn horse prob most interesting out of those given the odds and his ‘could be anything’ profile given this is his first ever run over hurdles. May be worth some change at 20s although you’d think one of top two in market is winning but you never know. Didn’t fancy the other two much at the odds but no doubt one will leave me annoyed!
      Josh

      Josh 28/05/18 11:14 AM Reply


      • Clemento wins….

        Chris Sengelow 28/05/18 2:16 PM Reply


    • and Parole wins. I got 16s this morning. Cheers Mike 🙂 🙂

      Ken McKenzie 28/05/18 4:51 PM Reply


  • Tips – we made 3 points on Saturday with Washington DC each way and I am +7.75 points up for May and 17 points up since Cheltenham.
    Today I will go with Amourice, 4.05 Lei, 5/1 BOG for 2 points. The horse will be suited by the trip and is an improving 3YO. Also Aguerooo, 3.15Che, an old rascal but drops in class and they stick the blinkers back on. 2 points at 4/1 BOG.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 28/05/18 11:44 AM Reply


  • (Course Based) Todays Selections 28.5.18

    Greeley 15:40 at Windsor @ 16.00
    Vincent’s Forever 16:45 at Redcar @ 6.00
    Lake Volta 16:50 at Windsor @ 5.90
    Swift Fox 17:35 at Chelmsford @ 6.40

    Richard 28/05/18 2:35 PM Reply


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