Members Daily Post: 27/05/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

JUMPS

Uttoxeter

3.40- Some Invitation (micro TJC) 14,30 ES+ 8/1 S3A UP

4.15 – Petite Power (hncp c) 14/1 S2 UP

4.50- Shrubland (micro TJC) 14,30 H3 9/2 UP

 

Kelso 

2.40 – Little Stevie (nov hncps) (trainer change) 3/1 UP

3.50 – Looking Well (all hncps + hncp chase) ES+ 4/1 S3A

 

Fontwell

2.15 – Don Lami (all hncps) w1 ES+ H1 I1 3/1 S3A 2nd 

2.50 – 

Code of Law (all hncps + hncp c+ micro dist) ES+ 10/1 S2 S3A WON 10/1 

Two Hoots (hncp c) H3 10/3  3rd 

4.35 – 

Soulsaver (all hncps) ES+ 4/1 S3A UP

Cor Wot An Apple (all hncps + hncp h)  18/1 S2A  UP

5.10 – Kilmurvy (hncp chase) H1 I3 10/3 UP

5.45 – 

Vexillum (all hncps + hncp c) ES+ I3 12/1 S2 S3A S5  3rd 7/1 

Ballyantics (all hncps  + hncp c) ES+  7/1 S3A 

Jimmy (micro dist/age) (handicap debut) 12/1 S2 UP

Howlongisafoot (micro dist) I1 9/2 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end6th May 2018)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 6th May 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 9/105,33p, +6.5)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +101.5)

NOTES

3.40 Uttox – Some Invitation – 1 point win – 8/1 (bet365/BV) 15/2 (gen) .. UP/PU Awful. Moving on. 

That will be all for tips. 

Some Invitation…15/2. 8s just about seemed big enough here in a race with a fair few older exposed handicappers, and plenty seemingly out of form or on career high marks. This one is in the thoroughly unexposed/could be anything category still and I would like to think this has been the plan for the first half of the year, as it’s a nice enough pot. The horse returned after a break at Cheltenham LTO, seemingly unfancied at 16s. He jumped and travelled well for a long way into this and was at the front as they turned for home, HC the last jockey to move really- he has then either got very tired and/or not seen out the trip. He moves back down to 2m4f here so is doing something different, and he won’t mind what the ground does, on the evidence to date. Hopefully it’s no worse than GS, which should be the case if they miss any thunder storms. Trainer and Jockey continue in fine form and fingers crossed I can get a run for my money here. I’d like to think they would be more aggressive on him over this trip and if he can hold a position near the front, I can’t see him being too far away. There is a chance this happens too quickly for him but the trainer must think he’s worth a go over this trip, and they can’t do much wrong at the moment. 

Kapstadt would be a danger if he stays, and his price may seem about right in that context for a race like this. But he may not be far away. And Wadwick Court may be interesting enough as a LTO winner who should run his race and will be near the front, in the right position. The Skelton horse is the most interesting in the race for me, certainly moving forwards. We shall see if he has a bit in hand in these conditions, or he’s just not good enough as yet. 8s was worth a play to find out for me. 

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With any luck he wins to lift the mood for those of us still staring into our pint glasses after last nights shambles. With any luck I won’t have to endure another final like that – losing your best player and gifting the best team in European competition two goals, was rather painful- in the context of it being a game of football. That’s an awful way to lose any game, let alone a final. I just don’t like the not knowing of what may have been had those three things not happened, but they did, and that’s football. At least the journey there was entertaining. I suspect we will have a different goalkeeper next season and that issue clearly needs solving now, as deep down no-one is really surprised that happened. Both have had a chance to prove themselves and have now failed. It’s hard not to feel for the boy as I don’t know how you mentally recover from a night like that, anytime soon. Still, this team is building up plenty of big game experience/heartbreak, which with any luck will result in some more positive results one day.  

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide) 

3.40 Uttox- Valseur Du Granval  UP

4.15 Uttox – Petite Power  UP

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best) 

4.15 Uttox – Good Man Vinnie 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

12 Comments

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  • josh,its” ladies day”at musselburgh on saturday coming.i would appreciate a heads up to keep the missis happy @ to try and at least get my £100 back for the admission(bloody rip-off)

    william 27/05/18 9:14 AM Reply


    • Wear a hat as fascinators are so last year.

      martin colwell 27/05/18 9:41 AM Reply


    • I’ll see what I can do, I should turn some focus on the two days at Epsom also, but I should be able to cover plenty on Friday. You may need to remind me on Friday morning!
      Josh

      Josh 27/05/18 10:53 AM Reply


  • Josh

    LTO losers

    Mick the Poser..5.25 Utt…….12s / 14s in places

    26/4 Perth Notes
    Timeform Low-grade Flat handicap winner last summer. Fair form over hurdles and run easily excused when impeded by a faller 2 out at Perth last month (reportedly finished distressed).

    Mike

    mickeydee 27/05/18 9:20 AM Reply


  • If you can`t beat em, still trying to find elusive formula and two of three i omitted yesterday won, so, back to 2 a race, see how we get on.
    15:40 Uttoxeter
    KAPSTADT 7/1 gen 1pt ew
    Great run four days ago which leaves him really well in here for an in form stable so great value at this sort of price.
    BORN SURVIVOR 10/1 gen 1pt ew.
    A winner as recently as the middle of this month when successful at Southwell over a fraction further when scoring by three and three-quarter lengths hard ridden by Bridget Andrews.Should go better for that and hopefully now got in front should do so again!

    16:50 Uttoxeter
    OSCAR DENARIUS 6/1 gen 2 pt win
    My top jockey is in the saddle on recent new recruit for the Pauling yard and ever since he’s joined he’s undefeated shown signs of improvement in each of his wins shaped like there’s still more to come from him and I’m really glad Nico is in the saddle shrubland will be better now he’s had the run but he may need to improve quicker than he thinks because denarius is still looking like he’s improving rapidly I think he’ll be very hard to beat with Nico on Him.This race is probably slightly harder but nothing enough to stop him or pester him too badly.
    BARTON KNOLL 7/1 gen 1pt ew
    Was coming off a 160 day layoff when 2nd LTO. He can improve for that run and looks sure to go well here, place at best, but, you never know in this game!?

    16:10 Curragh
    SOLILOQUY 7/1 gen 1pt ew
    raced too keenly and may have lost her balance in the dip in Newmarket`s 1000 Guineas. That race probably didn’t show her to best effect , and having won turning right handed as a juvenile she will likely offer more here. She has a good draw which should give her options on how to approach the race tactically and is a winner in a similar sized field. She gives the impression she is a well above average filly for the Godolphin operation , and with trainer Charlie Appleby constantly under pressure to produce group race winners for the owners there is every possibility he will have improved this one again ahead of this race.

    WHOS STEPH 10/1 gen 1pt ew
    A twice winner over a mile in just four starts including two Group Three races and had no problem with the firmer ground last time out, shes beaten some useful horses this year notably from Aiden O’Brien’s yard and can make the frame for Ger Lyons who has a 20% SR over the past couple of weeks.

    There you go, good luck with whatever you back today!

    Stewart 27/05/18 9:39 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS

    No bet today

    Delighted no bet, never had such a poor May roll on June.

    colin leafe 27/05/18 10:48 AM Reply


    • Phenomenal work on the golf this week though, Colin. Thank you so much.

      steve 27/05/18 4:58 PM Reply


  • Some Invitation is interesting Josh as I have been noticing recently that Skelton is doing with his horses that are having their second run after a wind op – cannot yet query this as HRB have not added this function yet

    David Peat 27/05/18 11:40 AM Reply


  • Moonmeister 3:35 Curragh
    18s
    Colin Keane on board should enjoy the going
    4 places available

    Darren 27/05/18 1:30 PM Reply


  • Can you please help my confusion, I have recently started to follow S3a and understood the criteria to be a blue es plus two red letter/numbers. This is as with Code Law. Can you let me know how the other s3a are qualifiers using this criteria or do I just have it badly wrong
    Regards
    Eddie

    danegold 27/05/18 1:45 PM Reply


    • Hi Eddie,
      The Elite Squad + (which I call S3A as per the strategies results links in Key) are in effect the ‘best of’ the angles from my trainer track profiles reports… those angles that have at least 10 winners over the study period of research, at a 25% win strike rate and/or a 20% win strike rate and a 50% win and place SR.

      That is what determines whether I put a purple ES+ next to the qualifiers in section one. A purple ES+ = me putting S3A next to the horse. Those S codes I started adding a while back on request for ease of reference…if you see a ES+ it’s an S3A.

      The angle you’re referring to…the red symbols are the ratings pointers as per the key.

      For a few months now I have been tracking ES+ when they have also had two or more of those red symbols also.

      The logic is that we have a very solid trainer stats foundation…plus the actual horse being solid ‘on the ratings’ (the red symbols) that’s what I’ve referred to as ‘S3A double/treble rated’ (ES+ , plus two or three red symbols)

      As yet that angle does not have an S code.

      Code of Law was an S3A qualifier but no red symbols so not an S3A ‘double/treble’ rated.

      I didn’t back him. 🙂

      The S3A double/treble rated for both jumps and flat is looking very solid although as yet we haven’t hit 100 qualifiers since I’ve been tracking. But logically should be fine.

      Just S3A (ES+) have done ok on jumps but not pulled up any trees and have started ok on the flat. I hope,given the approach, that they should tick along fine over time.

      But focusing on S3A double/treble rated does look a more focussed/solid option.

      I hope that makes sense! But do shout if not. I can do a video as explain it while speaking may be clearer!

      Best, Josh

      Josh 27/05/18 3:20 PM Reply


  • Cheers, thanks for clarifying

    danegold 27/05/18 4:26 PM Reply


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