Free Daily Post: 27/05/18 (complete)

Nothing from me today. I’ve run out of time to look at the 3m handicap chase from Uttoxeter. At a quick glance, Good Man Vinnie and TB Broke her probably looked of most interest to my eyes, but I haven’t been through that race in the depth required for tipping purposes. 

GL with any bets. 

 

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

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  • Goodwood and Sandown review from 24th May

    I hope this is of some use to all. Both races have plenty of future winners.
    Goodwood 6f Novice won by Mutawaffer.
    Pictures here https://imgur.com/a/F3QSQQQ
    I have shown some unsaddled and mounted and some that were rugged up mounted only. It was a miserable cold day despite the forecast of 21-23 degrees. The only runner I had seen before was Greenback Boogie who had earned a rating of 65. After his fourth here that may seem a fraction low but he had had two races and most of his opposition was not really fully tuned. Maybe give him a 67.
    Mutawaffer – A really bonny two year old type, lovely proportions but only lower medium at best, hesitate to call him small, so well put together. Had the best draw and a good ride from Jim Crowley made it all very simple despit him being very free for the first two furlongs. 88+ Interesting to compare his two photos and see how he tightened up with a jock on board.
    Shaybani – Top end of small, deep chested, looked fit and ready for debut but the residual doubts over R Hughes 2yo training technique and his price dissuaded me form giving him his due beforehand. A real 2yo type, perhaps still a bit downhill and should improve nto. If not then it will raise a further question about RH. 75
    Li Qui – Photo at end of file. Decent size but awkwardly made compared with the best of these, will probab ly restrict his progress. Should pick up a maiden. 74
    Greenback Boogie – see notes above, still looks ordinary, 67
    Golden Force – Big strong boy, very tubby for a Clive Cox debutant and presumably been hard to get fit and slimmed down. Plenty more to come and this was a good performance given his relative lack of fitness. 78
    Pirate – A grand looking type, too green and stupid to do himself justice. Also ended up racing wide and Marquand dropped his stick about .5f out. Well made, top end of medium. Oddly his mounted picture exposes his lack of fitness where his belly is more evident. Loads of improvement in this one; given the Hannon’s habit of sending good ones here definitely worth a follow. 79
    Dancing Speed – Ok but just a bit less of him in every dept than his stablemate Pirate. Ran very green 2to and also got stuck out wide. Holly Doyle still needs more experience to get 2yos running for her the way older ones do. 72
    Smith – Probably about the same height as the winner but an altogether lesser model in terms of musculature and scope. 66
    Siam Dawn – Long backed, ok girth depth but weakens a bit toward the rear end. Ran fairly poorly given the performance of the Crisford animal earlier in the week. Probably needs 7f. 73
    Rescuerdame – leggy and narrow. Out of place here. 65
    Mr Fox – Not actually a bad type. Just preposterously unfit. Front legs look very under muscled. It is hard to understand why Mr Attwater bothers to train 2yos or even more why anyone would send him a 2yo to train. Mr Fox may have a race in him and in the hands of a different trainer would probably win at 2yo but futile to try and follow this one waiting for it to happen. Maybe 5th to in a nursery off bottom weight? Potential to be high 60s but when?

    Sandown 5f National Stakes won by Vintage Brut
    Photos here https://imgur.com/a/HmsJiRS missing Artair

    In this race the ones I had seen before were Artair and Blown By Wind. Again Artair ridden by Spencer who at least realised that you had to jump and go from a low draw at Sandown. I had give Artair 74 on debut, just below maiden winning level. He was out classed here and did not have the size and scope to cope with what looked like a better than average field for this race. Blown By Wind I had given 85-90 and his subsequent runs suggest this is about right.
    Vintage Brut – Medium sized, poweful back end. Not physically as impressive as expected in that for a sprinter with his turn of foot he was not as bulky as a couple of the others. Still, well put together and clearly very talented. 94
    Sabre – Top end of medium, good proportions. This was my personal pick for the race after seeing them. He ran green for a little while and when asked to go faster his head came up for a few strides and there was a momentary delay before the penny dropped. He then really got going and shot clear before being overhauled in the last furlong then keeping on and appearing to close again late on. Possibly needs 6f 93
    Konchek – I saw this one on debut (without pictures) when he won impressively although his victims have not yet franked the form, we await Fanaar’s next run! Looked fitter here than on debut and a real power packed ball of muscle look to him. Drawn second widest, he missed the break by a length so not much went right. Despite this he showed tremendous speed, head down really trying to close wide late on and possibly could have won with a better draw or start. 95
    Blown By Wind – Big and strong, looks to be in the process of growing some more and a tad ungainly at present. He also looks not to have such a good nodding rhythm as the others at the front. Maybe this a small excuse for him weakening late on. 90
    Wedding Date – Quite a slightly made filly, looked tremendously fit and as usual the Hannon’s dug out a good one who really tried hard. Not quite the size and scope to cope with the bigger boys here but losing nothing in defeat. Will take some beating against her own sex. 85
    Kinks – Lower medium little block. A pocket rocket and maybe the unluckiest of the runners. Drawn 6 which is a poor draw and suffered accordingly. Charles Bishop chose to allow him to drop in and trust on a clear passage late on. He was checked at least twice and missed the opportunity to go with Konchek. Finished well. Early season type so needs to get another win before the end of June or if he was cheap may be a super sprint type. 87+
    Nakakande – Lower medium filly. Not dis-similar build to Kinks but a bit less strength as to be expected in a filly. Had won in France and should win again. 72
    Adam Tiler – Out of his depth here. Broken by early pace. Plain type although has some size. 73
    Artair – over-tried here, trying to take on these bigger speed horses was an impossible task. 74
    I backed Sabre flat and did the combo fc and tri as per the ratings bets. Poor thinking really as Vintage Brut was backed heavily, went off joint fav and should certainly have been added into the trifecta.
    2pt loss on the day. Running Total 29.13pts.

    alpha2 27/05/18 12:03 PM Reply


  • Well yesterday was a a bit of a what if day. In the first race the only horse I did not mention got the win, in the second we got a nice return on Crownthopre but the winner missed my consideration from the top 3, the third we lost out by a nose to the only horse I did not tip from the three and to round it off Battash proved his class (although only just) with the two tips not really featuring. Frustrating day as the top 3 rated found 3 of the 4 winners at good odds and I missed them, -2pts on the day. Could have been plus 5 or 6 had I picked the right ones. However still up for May, onto next week at Epsom!

    Hopefully some of you ignored me yesterday and got on the winners. Happy punting today!

    Chris M 27/05/18 12:55 PM Reply


  • Thanks for the cracking golf tips Colin. Deserved that one after last week.

    Nick Mazur 27/05/18 4:17 PM Reply


    • Well done Colin, couldn’t agree more, shame I only got 7 places for Fitzpatrick. There were 4 tied for 8th do e/w bets pay out on all tied ?
      Hugh

      alpha2 27/05/18 4:22 PM Reply


      • Sky paying eight places have paid out on Matt Fitzpatrick,but with a 25% dead heat reduction.

        Jim Ashfield 27/05/18 5:01 PM Reply


        • Paddy seem to have paid the full place payout for Fitzpatrick

          neilmck 27/05/18 5:12 PM Reply


          • Yeah I am glad I wasn’t the only one that got paid the full amount. 25pts profit on the week.

            Nick Mazur 27/05/18 5:41 PM Reply


            • Looks like they’ve just fixed it unfortunately

              neilmck 27/05/18 6:39 PM Reply


      • Hi Hugh
        Yes they pay out on tied placings Matt was tied with 3 other players so from the winner to 8th place for me there was 11 players, so to £10 place = £76 return divide this by 11 = £6.90 x 8 = £55.27 return hope this helps.
        Like you could only get 7 places with CO for Betway and Sky Bet have both closed my accounts.

        colin leafe 27/05/18 5:27 PM Reply


        • I think it should have been 1/4 stakes for the players tied for 8th place, not 8/11 for all placed players.

          So on £10 stakes, 33/1 odds and 1/5 place terms I think it should be £2.50 x 7.6 = £19

          neilmck 27/05/18 6:28 PM Reply


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