Members Daily Post: 24/05/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Lingfield

4.00- Hollywood Road (micro dist) I3 6/1  WON 6/1>11/2 

Goodwood

2.00- Love Dreams (all hncps) 14 ES+H3 I1 G1 4/1 S1 S2 S3A S4 WON 4/1>9/4 

Catterick

3.00- 

Geoff Potts (all hncps/4yo+ hncps, m going) H3 G1 11/4 S2  2nd 

Laughton (all hncps) 11/2 UP

Cupids Arrow (m TJC/Dist) 18/1 UP

Indian Pursuit (m TJC/dist) 14,30 12/1 UP

Sandown

8.40 – Mountain Angel (m going) w114H3 I3 4/1 

 

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KEY

H1/H3= HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez GoldSpeed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30– 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES –‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES +– Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>(updated to end6th May 2018)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>(updated to end 6th May 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’(2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 9/102,32p, +9.5)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +101.5)

NOTES

4.35 Ling – Insomniac– 1 point win – 12/1 (bet365) 10/1 (SkyB) 17/2 (gen) UP 9/1 

*hmm… a bit heavier than light showers and given how nothing came off the pace in that I can only think it was on the soft side and the horse hasn’t picked up again – he could just be useless and I don’t think I’ll be tipping him again but may get a mention, 1/4 point at what may be decent odds, but only if proper fast ground as otherwise he won’t be doing anything different and all hopes may be pinned on that. Clearly he is moderate, and added salt in the wound with a 6s shot winning earlier on the card that wasn’t a strategy pick, and on another day could have been tipped but my pin not near him…second run for yard, second run after a break, unexposed at distance, arrived fit and in form, so some sort of decent run assured. I’ll find my form at some point and will just keep grafting. 

 

I tipped this one LTO (thanks Mike, I won’t blame you when he tails in! 🙂 ) and having had a look, given the amount of things he is doing different again, and his price, I really had to wade in one more time. This is what I should have done with the Johnston winner at Newmarket, not that I’m still annoyed at that aberration. Not. At. All. I fancied this one LTO as he made handicap debut and there were plenty of solid trainer/jockey stats, as well as it being an open enough race. He didn’t do much there but today…he runs on GF for the first time and given they are happy to run him on this must think it is preferred, so there is every chance he got stuck in the soft LTO. He moves back up in trip (his first run was over 12f so they must think he’s a stayer), drops into a very weak C6, and gets a first time hood. All of those are reasons for why he ‘could’ improve. Trainer/jockey are 1/4,3p in handicaps. Simcock is 9/34,14p with all C6 handicappers on turf in the last 5 years, 2/6,3p when over 12f. He is 3/10,4p with 4 year olds at C6 level. 2/6,2p here on the turf in C6 (although both in maidens). And the yard are going ok, 1/14,5p last 14 days, no reason to be put off at 17/2+. If this horse has any future in this yard, you’d think he has to be winning this. I wonder if they may try and make him more interested by going forwards with him. I also think Spencer must have had an influence on these changes..better ground, trip move, and certainly the hood. I doubt many would give better feedback than him on a young horse.

We shall see. It it such a poor race. The weather…well, it is good, good to firm in places (watered) which makes me think it has been firm…they have had 6mm rain until 4am, with a chance of showers through the day…so who knows what the ground may be…nothing in here has any winning form on soft, so it would inconvenience them all. Hopefully it is just proper ‘good’ ‘no excuses’ ground. But at this price, given the profile etc etc, I’ll take a stab.

That will be all for tips.

 

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Note: Love Dreams WON 4/1>9/4 above, 2pm, tipped two starts back over CD when ruining his chance on way to post/behaviour in prelims, and running away with jockey through race. Ran a cracker LTO over 8f from the front, and will give it a good go from the front here back over 7f if building on that run. I won’t be tipping him at those odds but if you backed him here LTO I wouldn’t put you off some change to get that stake back, if you can nab 4s somewhere. The ratings would back up his chance. Hopefully another for S3A Double/Treble rated. A very brief glance would put it between him and the fav to my eye, and just to ruin any chance of this happening, you’d think they may be 1-2 one way or the other. 9/1 – 11/1 forecast. We shall see! 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps 

Irish Angles

6.55 Tip – Lady Rococo (25/1< guide) 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Sandown ‘through the card notes’

Well, this looks a trappy card (yes yes, getting my excuses in early!) and there could be plenty of rain around- brilliant. Hopefully they don’t get too much and it is good as a worst case- it’s meant to have stopped by early morning. Anyway, there are a few below for Dan to follow/ignore, with some method and plenty of madness… this could be an evening for shorties, which means I’m screwed, as I can’t help but take them on…

6.00 – What A Welcome (2/1 though, one for the place pot, if he bolts up my ‘taking on the favs’ strategy will have started in the worst possible way)

Two at decent prices: Garbanzo 10s / Psychotic 14s (both trainers do well here, both horses are unexposed) 

6.35 – 

Wedding Date (team Hannon are 8/21,10p in this race in the last 21 years…rude not to have a go at 11/2!) 

Blown By Wind (should be right up there/make all/if he breaks from wide… Johnston is 4/19,p in non handicaps at the track in last 2 years, worth bearing in mind for the rest of the card also, maybe!) 

7.05Regal Reality / Gabr. (Stoute is 5/9,6p in this race… the fact he runs two here niggles at me, but those stats are impressive) Gabr’s form ties in with…

Dream Today…who could be interesting at a big price if a1 after his break. 

Vintager...hmm…I’m in danger of mentioning all the outsiders! I’d probably put £2.50 on each of those for fun, live with losing to the fav, a few pints if one comes in. 

The fav probably hacks up here but he’s too short to back and you’re at the races, you may as well take him on! (for small stakes probably, so that you can still enjoy the fav bolting up and seeing class in action, if that is what transpires) 

7.35 – well, my shortlist of three.. Weekender (who could get a Frankie special from the front,and could dictate but 2/1), Magic Circle (hacked up LTO but not sure this will be run to suit over shorter trip) and… Time To Study…Moore is on which I thought interesting,they may race him more handy and the track may suit more than LTO. My £5 would probably go on him as he is the biggest price, and I just can’t help myself. If one of those three does’t win this will have been an abject attempt at race analysis!  

8.10Fabricate... the only hope here I think is the lack of pace and the fact he is the only one who could lead. It isn’t impossible Doyle can steal this from the front, so at 4/1 or so I’d have a nibble on him…surely all of these odds on shots/shorties won’t win??! Again, don’t fall off your seat if the fav bolts up in this one also.  

8.40 – 

Kynren – 8s , will try and make all if he takes his chance…he does need rain to take sting out of ground and I suspect will be a NR if there isn’t any. 

Chief Of Chiefs...12s, some very good C2 form last season, would be bang there if recapturing that. Excuses the last twice. 

Mountain Angel...4s, the one I like from top of market, ok at 4s. 

I don’t have any strong views as to what I like most out of that pile…a decent priced winner of the first or last race should ensure not too much damage is done. If I was pushed for a top three, sticking my finger in the air… Garbanzo, Blown By Wind, Chief Of ChiefsFingers crossed and we shall see how they get on. Best of luck. 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

39 Comments

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  • Is it me or has anybody else’s betting bank taken a pretty big hit the past ten days? I wasn’t really big on horses this time last year so not sure if there’s any science behind it…. Or maybe it is just me!

    Darren C 23/05/18 9:13 PM Reply


    • 10 days is a very short time period. The flat season seems to me to be well underway and the ‘summer’ jumps is getting going. The racing is a bit uninteresting at times I think but we have the Derby meeting coming up and then Royal Ascot, so no excuses then. Maybe reduce stakes until things pick up or miss a day or so?

      martin colwell 23/05/18 9:34 PM Reply


    • Yes, I’ve had a poor run too, but you must expect this from time to time. It is the reason you have a bank, so that you can continue staking the same amount on every selection.

      Don’t vary your stake, just keep plugging away, the tide will turn eventually. These fallow periods will test your resilience, you will find out if you are mentally capable of betting.

      Try to take positives from the losers, such as checking in-running low trades on Betfair. As a rough guide, if you are getting plenty of horses trading under about 2.10 then you can be sure you are just going through a period of bad luck. The market has expected half or more of these horses to go on and win. And over a long period, that is exactly what will happen.

      Chris Murrell 24/05/18 2:54 AM Reply


    • Cheers gents. No worries I have the bank thanks to the combined efforts of Josh/SP2A and others on here over the past few months, was just more wondering if there was any particular reason or just one of those things…I’ll keep plugging away!

      Darren C 24/05/18 7:44 AM Reply


      • in a word yes Darren. Gone from mid-May a decent % up to 1.76% down after yesterday.

        The lads above are correct. I keep a spreadsheet with each selection having a system or name against it. Each system/name is like a cost centre so I will review their performance for April and May and decide how to work it from there.

        I’m probably backing too many short priced horses (under 2-1/5-2) and I will need to make a call on what to do with them this season.

        Keep your chin up and don’t chase.

        Paul Ebrey 24/05/18 9:09 AM Reply


    • I try not to take much notice when my bank goes down! 🙂 That’s a hard question to answer without knowing what you are following but if you’ve internalised the long term winning SRs of approach x, and thus have an adequate bank to cover max losing runs a couple of times, with any luck it isn’t impacting you/mindset – as always having an adequate bank and staking amount, that you’re prepared to lose, is the only way. Betting on horses in general is a case of bobbing up and down, down down, spike, bigger spike, back to bobbing! Well, that’s how mine has always gone, it’s rather cyclical and most will fail because they are not adequately set up for the down down down bit, and jump ship just before the spikes! all about starting off in the right way, which I certainly didn’t do, but once I’d sorted myself I was on £2.50-£5 per points for a good 3+ years, and even now with ‘systems’ I’m only on £10s (inc SP2A), and my tips are £20 per point, and thats a level that I’m comfortable with and can absorb the worst of the worst, but it’s taken me time to get there. I also rarely, if ever, back anything under 6s – i find it too hard to make game play under those odds consistently, generally paying for themselves/losing, but that’s down to my approach – but that means plenty of fallow period.

      My notes tipping is on a losing run of 15 or so, Nick M relatively speaking has had a poorer month to date than many other months, and SP2A are on a treading water period, which they were due, but still a decent 2018 so far even to BFSP. Infact Flat S6 has been the only shining light recently for my own ideas/approaches with a +36 points or so week last week, to pull that into a decent place, that has helped stem my own betting bank blood.

      May is a funny month…plenty of opportunities but that doesn’t make it easy. There are so many transitions, and the transition in going has been very stark also, combined with a horrid winter where you’re not sure how much grass work some flat yards have got into their horses, that it is always tough. Plenty of judges have been treading water this month with odd exception, just one of those. That’s the great game, it isn’t easy, but that’s why it’s so much fun – provided you’re prepared to blow your bank as that’s the only way to get through the dips.

      Josh

      Josh 24/05/18 10:45 AM Reply


    • Personally I’ve just about made money but it certainly has been tougher the past 10 days although after the previous 10 weeks I was due a correction since I made as much out of my portfolio as I had all of 2017. Ironically enough after a terrible start in May from my own tips where everyone else was doing well, I have kept the rest afloat with my own tips the past 10 days. The one thing I would say is I think people increase stakes far too quickly and would make sure you have enough of a bank that you never have to decrease stakes. I’ve never personally reduced stakes on anything and if it ever warranted it was clearly the weak-link to the portfolio and was ditched instead.

      Nick Mazur 24/05/18 11:10 AM Reply


      • I echo all your thoughts on this.

        jarrodholmes68 24/05/18 11:40 AM Reply


  • I’m sure this has come up before and so apologies for that and happy to be pointed to a previous thread.

    I have a period of six months off work coming up and will be using part of that time to build some systems.

    I like to concentrate on generic systems which aren’t trainer specific in the hope that these have a longer shelf life and so that will be my angle of attack.

    I do find though that if you try and build systems aimlessly without any real logic that you are testing, you can waste a lot of time very quickly and so I am looking for things to read that will get the brain ticking.

    Does anyone have any books they would recommend to help me along. I quite like the look of:

    Nick Mordin – winning without thinking
    David Lee Priest – the betting edge.

    Both are quite old though. Anything else people would recommend or particular race types etc that you think are particularly conducive to systematic betting.

    Francis 23/05/18 9:31 PM Reply


    • Is your purpose purely profit or is it something you are interested in spending time on as an interest? If you have a subscription to Horseracebase you can have a play around and then get into it more seriously. Judging by what I read here Josh seems to have a good understanding of how to go about it. Re the books, I would start light and read Value Seeker and Armchair Profits and then have a go and then read on further.
      I would keep it simple and quick to use, such as Jedd O’Keefe runners in June, 16/1 or less, up in distance. Easy enough to spot.

      Good luck.

      martin colwell 23/05/18 9:50 PM Reply


      • I see both books are available as Kindle versions. Do you think the books would be alright in that format, or are there graphics in the books that might be hard to read?

        neilmck 23/05/18 10:37 PM Reply


        • There are some graphics but they are not instrumental in the content of the books.

          martin colwell 23/05/18 10:40 PM Reply


  • Thanks for your reply Martin. The reading of the books will be primarily profit driven rather than for enjoyment (I am not interested in life stories!) but the system building element is some what of a hobby. I have an HRB subscription and probably have around 30 decent generic systems in operation but I have run out of ideas currently and because some are pretty low strik-rates they are not yet at a stage where they can replace the income I’ve had from following tipsters in recent years. Due to account restrictions, the long term plan would be for these to be my sole betting income, along with the material and advice on this site of course!

    Francis 23/05/18 10:23 PM Reply


    • You appear to be some way down the road already. There is a book by Peter May, In search of the Winning System. Worth a read, however it does have a few life related experiences, but you will be lucky to avoid those anywhere. I have a few systems on the go and am always looking for new ones.

      martin colwell 23/05/18 10:35 PM Reply


      • This is the one book I have read actually. A bit of a struggle at times but overall, like you say, worth a read – it did provide me with a couple of those sparks I was looking for!

        Francis 23/05/18 10:43 PM Reply


        • Hi Francis,

          This old post I wrote on racing books may be of interest, and of more interest may be the 20 comments that follow with suggestions…

          https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2016/11/29/racing-books-what-should-i-be-reading-this-christmas/

          Matt over at Geegeez posted a good read yesterday, a chapter from Paul Jones’ new book, and this will be right up your street as he talks through some ideas/method – I have 5/6 jotted down on my notepad for further research and most are non trainer related. You can also get £5 off the book with Matt’s promo code also, and I’ll be ordering this later today… plenty of decent free content in this post anyway…

          https://www.geegeez.co.uk/paul-jones-from-soba-to-moldova-book-excerpt/

          Josh

          Josh 24/05/18 7:46 AM Reply


          • Really appreciate it Josh.

            It looks like Christmas has come early for me here, better than I could possibly have hoped for!

            Francis

            Francis 24/05/18 10:22 AM Reply


            • Francis look at the flatstats website. LOTS of info and tools and run by a very experienced stats geek.

              bogsnorkeler 24/05/18 10:13 PM Reply


          • The thing with the Paul Jones book is that he does have a lot of personal anecdotes that take away the focus from how to bet effectively at times. I did read the book and enjoyed it and was useful in parts. More of a holiday read than something to consider to be a serious work.

            martin colwell 24/05/18 10:25 AM Reply


  • AW racing from Chelmsford tomorrow. Qualifiers as follows:
    5.40 Lady Joanna Vassa 14/1
    6.10 Spiritual Star 16/1 & Andalusite 7/1
    8.20 Tai Hang Dragon 9/2
    1pt win each

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 23/05/18 10:42 PM Reply


  • Josh

    LTO losers
    You have already mentioned Loves Dream the other is

    Insomniac
    01/05 Yar notes..Currently 10/1 B365 and Sky
    Timeform Lightly-raced maiden. 6/1, a fifth of 6 in a handicap at Yarmouth (10.1f, soft) 23 days ago. A hood for the first time. Must improve.

    Psychocandy just missed a place 7 length yesterday.

    Mike

    mickeydee 24/05/18 8:09 AM Reply


    • Apologies

      Insomniac LINGFIELD 4.35.

      Mike

      mickeydee 24/05/18 9:30 AM Reply


  • I was planning to look at the 3 southern flat track at lunch given the forecast rain (nothing I liked at Catterick or Chelmsford) but with all the money coming in the Sandown 20:40 at a couple at the top end of the market it has created plenty of value elsewhere so one for me there. Anything else I’ll be putting up around lunchtime.

    Contrapposto Sandown 20:40 1pt e/w Price taken 25/1-22/1 4 places

    Nick Mazur 24/05/18 9:57 AM Reply


    • Non runner now.

      martin colwell 24/05/18 10:32 AM Reply


      • Yeah I think I am just going to leave the race alone.

        Nick Mazur 24/05/18 10:40 AM Reply


    • Well spotted Nick……I had it listed too.

      jarrodholmes68 24/05/18 11:42 AM Reply


  • Working in Maidenhead today which isn’t too far from Sandown weatherwise I guess and it’s been raining fairly consistently til now (10am) and doesn’t look like stopping soon.

    Chris Albin 24/05/18 10:10 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    2.00 Goodwood Love Dreams
    3.00 Catterick Extrasolar
    4.00 Lingfield Rainbow Rebel
    6.00 Sandown What A Welcome

    colin leafe 24/05/18 10:32 AM Reply


  • Well, thankfully it’s not only me going through a bit of a downturn.

    On to today’s picks.
    SAN 6.00 punkawallah 8s, 6.35 artair 10s, 7.05 regal reality 9s/ petrus 50s,7.35 glencadam glory 20s.
    CATT 3.00 indian pursuit 12s.
    GOOD 1.30 pirate 12s, 2.00 ice lord 12s.
    LIN 2.50 berryessa 10s.
    CHEL 5.40 mighty zip 14s, 6.45 players luck 25s, 8.50 poets quest 33s.
    TIPP 6.20 erquy 33s

    Good luck today

    jarrodholmes68 24/05/18 11:56 AM Reply


  • I am minus 4.25 points for Tips in May. I am in profit on bets but mainly thanks to Golf and am off my monthly target at present. I had a good March and April and so May is not so good so far.
    Todays tip – Sing Out Loud, 2 points at 9/2 BOG, 3.10 Goo. Had a run and so should improve. Up in trip which should suit.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 24/05/18 12:38 PM Reply


  • I think now weather has settled the results will start to settle mister leafe Has started to get winners that’s a sure sign summer is about to start

    paul bailey 24/05/18 12:53 PM Reply


  • Garbanzo Sandown 18:00 1pt e/w

    Nick Mazur 24/05/18 1:36 PM Reply


  • well Love Dreams was a great write-up and hope was well supported on here.

    Paul Ebrey 24/05/18 2:24 PM Reply


    • One of those when they win (as expected truth) like that I wish I’d broken my imposed price limits for tipping as 4s on a 9/4 shot is clearly bloody good value, and he was 4s across board in morning for a time…still, hopefully any bakers of my tips at least would have read the notes and had something on, and if not, they may back S4 or take an interest in S3A double/treble rated, or fact he was double top rated. If I’m going to be confident on one at that price range I suppose he was one to be more bullish on…given the ratings, he was in form, stays further, thought would get easy enough lead, PJ on first time who is riding up there with best at moment, was fit etc. Always easy after mind and I just get far too many wrong under 6s which hammers the confidence…as I never think I’ll back enough in long run to make it worth it. He was clearly a decent 4s shot!
      Hope you and many others had a go, Josh

      Josh 24/05/18 2:28 PM Reply


      • I did indeed. Thanks Josh.

        neilmck 24/05/18 2:37 PM Reply


      • Too short for me too Josh. As you say, it’s an easy game in retrospect but you have to be able to get on very early or have a very sharp pin in your desk drawer to make any money from these shorties in the longer term.

        Tin

        Tim 24/05/18 2:38 PM Reply


  • Yesterdays results:
    Yarmouth 23rd May – 15:25 Widnes 3rd 8/1
    Yarmouth 23rd May – 16:25 Call Out Loud 2nd 10/3
    Kempton 23rd May – 17:55 Angelina Dor 3rd 13/2

    Thursday Selections: (Course Based)
    Blown By Wind in the 18:35 at Sandown @ 5.30
    Bullingdon in the 19:15 at Chelmsford @ 5.40
    Mountain Angel in the 20:40 at Sandown @ 5.90
    Ettie Hart in the 20:50 at Chelmsford @ 6.80

    Richard 24/05/18 4:49 PM Reply


    • 24th May Results:

      Blown By Wind 18:35 at Sandown @ 5.30 4th 7/2jf

      Bullingdon 19:15 at Chelmsford @ 5.40 Won 2/1f 3.21

      Mountain Angel 20:40 at Sandown @ 5.90 15 3rd 4/1 j2f

      Ettie Hart 20:50 at Chelmsford @ 6.80 15 Won 6/1 9.80

      Richard 27/05/18 10:07 AM Reply


  • After a quiet few days with some places to keep me interested I took a trawl through the various tips on here and whacked an e/w lucky 15 on for the first time in my life with Love Dreams, Without Parole, Chiefofchiefs and What A Welcome. Cost me coppers, won me £80.00. Thanks fellers.

    Aidan Trimble 24/05/18 9:37 PM Reply


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