Free Daily Post: 24/05/18 (hold)

Sandown ‘through the card notes’

Below I have repeated my ‘through the card’ notes for Sandown. Time allowing I am happy to go through a card for members’ on request when they are off to the races, all part of the service 🙂 I have done ok with this approach and more often than not land on a couple of winners. It tends to be that or a complete blowout, which will happen when you’re spending 30-45 mins on a card, attacking races you wouldn’t usually touch. When going to the races, if it’s a ‘day out’, I do think it’s important to change mindset – more to a ‘I want winners’ attitude, which invariably means focussing more on the top of the market than you otherwise would do. I rarely touch anything under 6/1 in my own daily punting, but when at the races will look at 3s-11/2 shots. I do struggle to go under 3/1, even when hunting for ‘winners’ (which is different from the long term value mindset you should adopt) and with that said, there are many shorties littering the Sandown card, that I’ve had to take on. What follows are not tips, more a guide and some musings to use/ignore how you please. If nothing else hopefully an interesting read…

Let’s see how they go, with a ‘going’ caveat at Sandown due to the weather- it’s a bit of a guessing game as I type, hopefully no worse than Good…

from today’s members’ post… (those prices mentioned were correct at time of posting last night, generally available) 

 

Sandown ‘through the card notes’

Well, this looks a trappy card (yes yes, getting my excuses in early!) and there could be plenty of rain around- brilliant. Hopefully they don’t get too much and it is good as a worst case- it’s meant to have stopped by early morning. Anyway, there are a few below for Dan to follow/ignore, with some method and plenty of madness… this could be an evening for shorties, which means I’m screwed, as I can’t help but take them on…

6.00 – What A Welcome (2/1 though, one for the place pot, if he bolts up my ‘taking on the favs’ strategy will have started in the worst possible way)

Two at decent prices: Garbanzo 10s / Psychotic 14s (both trainers do well here, both horses are unexposed) 

6.35 – 

Wedding Date (team Hannon are 8/21,10p in this race in the last 21 years…rude not to have a go at 11/2!) 

Blown By Wind (should be right up there/make all/if he breaks from wide… Johnston is 4/19,p in non handicaps at the track in last 2 years, worth bearing in mind for the rest of the card also, maybe!) 

7.05Regal Reality / Gabr. (Stoute is 5/9,6p in this race… the fact he runs two here niggles at me, but those stats are impressive) Gabr’s form ties in with…

Dream Today…who could be interesting at a big price if a1 after his break. 

Vintager...hmm…I’m in danger of mentioning all the outsiders! I’d probably put £2.50 on each of those for fun, live with losing to the fav, a few pints if one comes in. 

The fav probably hacks up here but he’s too short to back and you’re at the races, you may as well take him on! (for small stakes probably, so that you can still enjoy the fav bolting up and seeing class in action, if that is what transpires) 

7.35 – well, my shortlist of three.. Weekender (who could get a Frankie special from the front,and could dictate but 2/1), Magic Circle (hacked up LTO but not sure this will be run to suit over shorter trip) and… Time To Study…Moore is on which I thought interesting,they may race him more handy and the track may suit more than LTO. My £5 would probably go on him as he is the biggest price, and I just can’t help myself. If one of those three does’t win this will have been an abject attempt at race analysis!  

8.10Fabricate... the only hope here I think is the lack of pace and the fact he is the only one who could lead. It isn’t impossible Doyle can steal this from the front, so at 4/1 or so I’d have a nibble on him…surely all of these odds on shots/shorties won’t win??! Again, don’t fall off your seat if the fav bolts up in this one also.  

8.40 – 

Kynren – 8s , will try and make all if he takes his chance…he does need rain to take sting out of ground and I suspect will be a NR if there isn’t any. 

Chief Of Chiefs...10s/12s, some very good C2 form last season, would be bang there if recapturing that. Excuses the last twice. 

Mountain Angel...4s, the one I like from top of market, ok at 4s. 

I don’t have any strong views as to what I like most out of that pile…a decent priced winner of the first or last race should ensure not too much damage is done. If I was pushed for a top three, sticking my finger in the air… Garbanzo, Blown By Wind, Chief Of ChiefsFingers crossed and we shall see how they get on.

Best of luck. 

*

 

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

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  • 24th May Goodwood 1.30 Sandown 6.35 plus review of Ayr and Kempton from 22nd.

    A satisfactory day, (plus 3 pts from More Than This at Ayr less 1 pt at Kempton) although with a clear top three at Ayr I should also have put up the combo forecast and trifecta, it is on to one of my favourite days. I will go to both Goodwood and Sandown and then a good Italian dinner afterwards.

    Unfortunately neither of the races present a clear ratings bet opportunity, as things are going well at present I have risked a couple of points on the top three rated at Sandown in combo exactas and trifectas.

    Goodwood 1.30
    Ratings
    1. Golden Force, Pirate
    2. Mutawaffer, Siam Dawn, Dancing Speed, Greenback Boogie

    No ratings bets. Probably between Mutawaffer, Siam Dawn and whichever of the Hannon two goes off shortest.
    I am a little put off Golden Force by Martin Harley, not because he is not a tremendous 2yo jock but because he is 0/11 at Goodwood on 2yos in the last five years and only 3% all ages. His confidence must be low when he pitches up here. Also his draw here on admittedly a small sample does not look great.

    Pirate will need to be sub 8/1 although he is not necessarily the yards second string to Dancing Speed who ran in a poor race on debut. Nevertheless the Hannons will have one good one in here. Mutawaffer finished 4th on debut, just in front of Two Blondes who was beaten at Ayr today. Given Hamdan likes them to have a gentle introduction this was a fairly taking performance and unless something jumps out in the paddock he looks a legitimate favourite.

    Sandown 6.35
    Ratings
    1. Blown By Wind, Konchek, Sabre
    2. Kinks, Wedding Date
    3. Vintage Brut

    1/6 Pt Combo exacta, 1/6pt Combo trifecta the top three with little confidence.

    I was very taken by Blown By Wind on debut, less so by Konchek and the 2nd and 3rd in that race have both been beaten since. Neither have a good draw whereas Sabre who has the best draw is for Fahey and he is not prolific with 2yos in the South, also Tony Hamilton has only had 4 rides at Sandown in the last 5 years with no wins on all ages, however he is a top jock and might bounce him out and make all on the rail. Kinks is probably too small although undoubtedly tough. Wedding Date has not beaten much yet but looks to be on the improve.

    Running total on points 31.13.

    Back with photos and a review sometime over the weekend. Will try and post abbreviated selections on Friday if I have any time.
    Hugh

    alpha2 23/05/18 8:56 PM Reply


    • Thanks Hugh. Sounds like you’ve got a great day ahead tomorrow.

      neilmck 23/05/18 9:12 PM Reply


    • Gone for a small e/w play on Smith in the 1.30 at 40/1.

      Trainer has 6 places from 8 2YO runners this year and 1 from 4 from her 2 year old’s at Goodwood in May. This is in a line through New Approach who’s progeny are 1 from 2 over C&D.

      Looking at it’s first run it appears it dwelt and stayed on over 5F so 6F, may be better suited and provided a better start it could be competitive. Interesting in its first race it lost to blown by wind by 10 lengths, which also beat today fav by 2 lengths under the same terms. So theoretically if they run the same it has 8 lengths to find. I’m hopeful with a better start and a run under its belt it will perform better and snag a place at decent odds.

      james P 24/05/18 10:54 AM Reply


  • AW BETS

    No bet today

    colin leafe 24/05/18 10:22 AM Reply


  • 6.35 Sandown – NAKAKANDE (50/1) in places, 40/1 elsewhere, 3 places at 1/5 odds.
    0.5 POINTS E/W
    Nakakande is a surprise pick but she’s been so strong at the finish on both starts, this better ground and long straight could set it up for her if they go hard up front. Connections have highly tried this horse both times on ground far from ideal and she was given a nice spin when sent to France last time out, staying on for third. Fitness will be no issue and the stable jockey takes over the reins tomorrow so that could make a big difference here. Drawn well in stall 4, I can see her improving again tomorrow and should run well at a nice price.
    Good luck
    BC

    SHIRTLESS 24/05/18 10:27 AM Reply


    • Good luck BC, we do like a 40s/50s shot in these parts, always exciting and they go in every now and then.
      Josh

      Josh 24/05/18 11:07 AM Reply


  • Back with 4 ITV races today at Sandown, although they have small fields and trends are hard to come by. May be a cautious day on the betting front but let’s get a few winners from my top 3 rated in each race.

    18:35 Sandown – National Stakes
    1st – Vintage Brut -> 59.96 (4/1 gen)
    2nd – Artair -> 50.87 (10/1 in palces)
    3rd – Kinks -> 38.20 (7/1 gen)
    Notes: The two that look good prospects to me are Vintage Brut and Kinks. VB is drawn stall one which if he can attack out the stalls he could get a favourable position. Kinks is one of the pacesetters for this race and if he can get to the front from his stall, he could make all. Tips -> 1pt WIN on Vintage Brut and Kinks

    19:05 Sandown – Heron Stakes
    1st – Silver Quartz -> 49.14 (14/1 gen)
    2nd – Glendevon -> 42.85 (33/1 gen)
    3rd – Gabr -> 42.75 (11/1 gen)
    Notes: Not much of interest in these top 3 here, will be annoyed if any of these runaway with it but I can’t see it. The only one who warrants some change is Silver Quartz, big step up in class but he has the breeding to race at this level so hopefully he can show some of that today. Tips 0.5pt EW on Silver Quartz.

    19:35 Sandown – Henry II Stakes
    1st – Time to Study -> 105 (9/1 gen)
    2nd – Glencadam Glory -> 84 (20/1 gen)
    3rd – Magic Cirlce -> 77 (9/2 gen)
    Notes: Magic Circle is mos likely based on trends out of three. Stall 5 which Time to Study is on has produced the most amount of winners with 4 wins so far. Weekender is fav but my trends say this isn’t the race for him which leaves him open. I’d be cautious on this as Weekender could overcome the trends and win nicely but I’ll go for the 2 I mentioned. Tips -> 0.5pt WIN Time to Study and Magic Circle.

    20:10 Sandown – Brigadier Gerard Stakes
    1st – Desert Encounter -> 31.32 (11/1 gen)
    2nd – Fabricate -> 23.40 (4/1 gen)
    3rd – Poets Word -> 19.89 (4/6 gen)
    Notes: I’d say the top two in the market is where the win is going to come from but with Poets Word being so short I can back both, so for the first time since I started posting these I am having a no bat race. One to watch I reckon. Tips -> NONE

    Good luck with your betting today!

    Chris M 24/05/18 10:37 AM Reply


  • Well, thankfully it’s not only me going through a bit of a downturn.

    On to today’s picks.
    SAN 6.00 punkawallah 8s, 6.35 artair 10s, 7.05 regal reality 9s/ petrus 50s,7.35 glencadam glory 20s.
    CATT 3.00 indian pursuit 12s.
    GOOD 1.30 pirate 12s, 2.00 ice lord 12s.
    LIN 2.50 berryessa 10s.
    CHEL 5.40 mighty zip 14s, 6.45 players luck 25s, 8.50 poets quest 33s.
    TIPP 6.20 erquy 33s

    Good luck today

    jarrodholmes68 24/05/18 11:58 AM Reply


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