Members Daily Post: 23/05/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Ayr

2.00 – Wild Hope (2YO) 11/2 2nd 

2.30 – 

Fintry Flyer (micro TJC) I3 12/1 WON 12/1>16/1 

Ruby Cherub (m dist/class/going) (hncp debut) 14/1 UP 28/1 

3.05 – 

Cheeni (m TJC) I3 7/1 UP

Mardy Gras (m dist/going) (hncp debut) 28/1 UP

3.35 – 

Strong Steps (m TJC) I1 18/1 S6 UP

Kharbetation (m runs) I3 G3 15/2

5.05 – 

Gworn (m TJC) I3 6/1UP

Maulesden May (m dist) H3 8/1 

Fire Leopard (m runs) 11/2 

 

Yarmouth

2.20 – Wiretrap (2YO) 22/1 UP 5/1 

3.25 – Free Forum (all hncps 5 yrs, all) ES+ 3/1 S3A UP

3.55 – 

Kerre (m going) 14,30 I3 6/1 UP

Max Liebermann (m age) H3 11/1 UP (an ok 4th) 

4.25 – Call Out Loud (m dist) H1 I3 G1 4/1 S1 S2 S4 2nd

5.25 – 

Moi Aussie (m dist) w1 H3 I3 15/2 UP

Slow To Hand (m going) 14,30 H3 I1 G3 11/10 S2 S4 S5 UP

 

JUMPS

Warwick 

2.40 – 

Malton Rose (all hncps) (hncp debut) w2 w1 14,30 H3 I3 4/1 UP

Call To Order (hncp h) 14 8/1 UP

3.45 – Utility (hncp h) 14 I3 14/1 S2 S5 UP

 

Southwell 

8.35 – Palixandre (NHF) 14,30 Evs 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 6th May 2018)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 6th May 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 9/102,32p, +9.5)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +101.5)

NOTES

None today. 

The two I looked at more closely than most, were Ruby Cherub and Max Liebermann ,and I’ll prob have 1/4 tipping points on each (£5 for me) just in case, and to ensure I’m not too annoyed if one wins! The former hasn’t done much to date but makes handicap debut (Carr 2/12,5p with those last 2 years), moves down in trip and down in class- so unexposed and doing a few things different. The concern is that Carr’s record with 3 year olds in general is only around the 6% mark, she does prefer to take a slowly slowly approach I think, giving them time, Good to Firm is a complete unknown and the yard are hitting one of their iffy periods. They are a bit like the Jonjo of the Flat, in that unless ‘red hot’ you never really know if they are in or out of form. This one could just be very moderate and needs more time, but has a basement mark and with the weight for age allowance has nothing on her back. But those doubts mean I can’t get myself to a point where I’m happy to throw one of my £20s (1 point) at her. Likewise… Max Liebermann is of some interest as he races on turf flat for the first time and is lightly raced…he steps up a furlong which should help and runs as if he wants further, unless he is just slow, he returns back to a handicap and moves into weak enough looking C6. Mosse jumps on and he gets a first time visor, and I think will be in the right spot on this ground, near the front of the pack. There are slight niggles over the trainer form and another where you are guessing as to whether they will like GoodTo Firm…and this ground was rock hard here the last day, prob more on the firm side, and I can’t see it being any different. On such extreme going, I am minded to want to see some evidence that they handle it, unless a silly price prob 16s/20s+ where you can just take more of a stab. I wouldn’t be shocked if he ran a decent race though, although to my eyes that fav looks very very solid and you can’t see him being far away. Worth a couple of interest stabs on a quiet afternoon as there is some method, and both may be worth tracking. I do keep getting my fingers burnt at C6 level though, which is no surprise given how poor/unpredictable most of these beasts are. 

In the same race…when chatting yesterday Amy Murphy said hers may be worth a £5 note, said he is very unpredictable and you never know quite what you will get but if he put his best foot forward he has the ability to win a race like this on the turf. His AW form for her is decent. He should come on for that last run, and at 12s I did throw said £5 at him. So, that’s three darts of interest for me today. 

GL with any bets, it doesn’t look a day to go too mad. 

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re-cap 

There were positives and negatives to take from yesterday…Oishin was just awful, I can only think the ground may have not been to his liking as he was never going a yard. He had raced fine on Good at Musselburgh but that was ‘winter good’ as opposed to summer good I suppose, maybe that was the issue. I’ll try and find the stewards report as given the money/price/sent off fav, they would have spoken to the trainer. He plugged on. I didn’t think he would be outpaced by that mediocre bunch but maybe on that ground he does need at least 2m4f+. I won’t mope around with the Jonjo winner, there were more positives there and had he been a bigger price I’d have tipped him, which is more of a positive than a negative, as at least I was close. I think I can live with dodging him at 8s given the break/he hadn’t shown much (deliberately so clearly, wrong trip/ground/gaining experience)/ it’s Jonjo (long said I won’t touch one of his under 10s again as you never know what you are going to get) and he was stone cold bottom of HRB ratings- clearly with one with that profile I should have overlooked that, given he was so unexposed and what he’d done on the track to date was irrelevant to a point. But that’s said with hindsight and it’s always easy after the race. An annoying one and I am still struggling like mad with ‘jumps notes’, over a prolonged period. It simply isn’t good enough, so work to do there. I’m bullish the flat will come. And hey, all tipping content is +300 points since Sept 1st, mainly to 1 point win bets, so I won’t mope around too much! 🙂 That will be somewhere in the 60-80% ROI region I think. (that has come in two big spikes, Sept-Oct 17, and March/April 18, which is usually how it goes with me and I have no idea why) This current -14 run is run of the mill, I usually don’t go past -25 or so, and won’t start getting agitated until I get near there. On we go. 

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Really Super... well, she looked a tad fat to my eye, like me after an extended Christmas break. Although it takes me more than one 2 mile jog to get into condition. She will come on a bundle for that, and in my own view, probably another run after that. Annoyingly she missed the break and hence had to be held up last- had Lemos rushed her up at that point, around runners, there is a strong chance she’d have been lit up, unable to settle, and would have tailed in much further back. Sadly it meant she was poorly positioned in a race run at a crawl. They turned the taps a tad as they entered the home straight, she was momentarily outpaced before coming back onto the bridle, and making some sort of move from 3 out to 2 out or so, before then getting tired and plugging on- but she tried all the way through the line and didn’t lose out on 3rd by much. Had she broken and sat in 4th/5th which was the plan really, she’d have grabbed 3rd, but it was a run of promise. If I remove my tinted owners shades, she has yet to win a race, and until she does there will always be something niggling. She has more than enough ability and we will have plenty of fun with her over both codes. She just stays and gallops but does have a mind of her own and needs variety in her routine, so mixing flat/jumps may well be the way forward. It was a great day out, a very friendly track and a decent owners terrace in the sun, with views of the paddock to one side and a short hop to the track the other. 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps

Irish Angles

5.10 Wex – Cairnhill 

7.45 Wex- Hickeys Rock 

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide) 

3.15 War- Okotoks (m3) UP

4.45 War- Turban (m3) UP

Flat 

R Fell 

3.35 Ayr – Club Wexford WON 4/1>11/1

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Results Update 

Weekly Results Update (last two weeks)(7th-20th May) 

Results Update: Summary below, link in Key for Jumps + Flat Strategies will be updated ASAP

Weekly Results Update: Strategies 7th May-20th May

Summary

Weekly TOTAL (advised strategies) (Section 1):

  • JUMPS – S1 (/) S2 (3/32,7p, +11, +8 BFSP) S2A (subset of S2… 2/14,4p, +18, +15 BFSP) S3 (0/4,0p,-4) S3A (3/10,4p, +7.5) S4 (/) S5 (3/17,4p, +15, +13 BFSP)
  • FLAT 2018: S1 (0/4,0p,-4) S2 (0/17,4p,-17) S3A (2/14,5p, -1) S4 (2/13,3p, -0.5) S5 (2/10,2p, +2.5) S6 (2/16,1p, +27, +47 BFSP)

TEST ZONE 

  • Jumps angles: 1/11,1p, -8.5
  • Flat: 0/5,0p, -5 

‘In Form Horses’ (won LTO or two runs ago, backed once if both a W1+W2)

  • Jumps: 5/22,5p, +2.5 (w1 : 2/11,1p, -4.75, w2 3/11,3p,+7.25) 
  • Flat: 1/20,4p, -14 (w1 1/11,3p, -5, w2 0/9,1p, -9) 

Handicap Debut (jumps+flat): 0/4,0p, -4 

S3A Double/Treble rated (jumps+flat): 3/7,4p, +9 

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Results thoughts…

I’ll update the links in the key and not too much to add, but I’ll highlight…

Flat S6, which if you want just one strategy to follow will hopefully build on last year’s results and give some good returns this flat season. That is now on 4/37,9p, +22, +42.65 BFSP so far this season. 

S3A ‘Double/Treble Rated’ – so ES+, with two or more red symbols (Indian Voyage would be examples above) are now collectively, across Jumps and Flat… 76 bets / 24 wins / 36p / +41.75.  That appears to be ticking along. Like with most ideas I like to take a temperature check at 100 bets, but there is plenty of logic underpinning that one and with any luck it will keep ticking along 

Jumps…S2A…. jumps qualifiers priced 16/1-25/1 on morning prices… 1 point EW… 84 bets / 6 wins / 19p / +60.7, or 1 point win, 6/84,19p, +37, +66 BFSP. 

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SP2A... I have convinced Ian to run another 3 month trial of his tipping service from 1st June to End August, on the same terms as previous 3 month trials we have done (50% discount, money back guarantee if loss to advised stakes/SP) There will be limited numbers and I will be emailing those on the waiting list first, either today or tomorrow, so if you may be interested you can add your contact details HERE>>> 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

25 Comments

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  • No AW qualifiers for me tomorrow.

    Ken McKenzie 22/05/18 10:32 PM Reply


  • Thought Night Generation was the likely winner and on the flip side Second Time Around would have finished 3rd a stride later but at least its damage limitation. Couple for me tomorrow:

    Strong Steps Ayr Wednesday 15:35 1pt e/w Price taken 20/1
    Unison Warwick Wednesday 15:45 1pt e/w Price taken 11/1

    Nick Mazur 22/05/18 10:38 PM Reply


    • Good shout with NG there Nick, right there till the last 100 yards. STA never got going till too late, maybe wants a bit further? Though I’m no judge on those things!

      Chris Albin 23/05/18 7:33 AM Reply


      • Many thanks for your postings Nick – crossbar well and truly rattled. Those using Sunbets, always check your returns – I have spotted 3 bet settlement errors in the last month. Appreciate there was a rule 4 on NG but they made a real hash of it, somehow applying somewhere close to a 50p rule 4! Even after pointing it out, they then went and settled it wrong again applying the rule 4 to winnings and stake rather than just winnings.

        Francis 23/05/18 7:46 AM Reply


        • Hmmmm, Sunbets.
          Removed my BOG rights between bet selection and race and wouldn’t pay on the resulting winner that drifted.

          traf69 23/05/18 8:30 AM Reply


          • Sunbets haven’t said I’m restricted but the odds often get reduced when I try to place a bet.

            The price never reduces on Oddschecker.

            Chris Murrell 23/05/18 8:50 AM Reply


            • Betfred have started doing exactly this to me Chris, they have also started diverting me off to a gambling commission report that has no means of getting back to the site . I have contacted them about it and they have advised that I clear my cache and history but it still happens intermittently. I’m kind of getting the impression that they are trying to hack me off into betting elsewhere without actually telling me. Whether I’m just being paranoid or whether it has had anything to do with the recent negative publicity of restrictions I don’t know.

              westy2 23/05/18 10:13 AM Reply


              • I was pretty sure sunbets were doing this to me at one point Chris. I thought I was being paranoid but perhaps not. This has stopped now they have partially restricted me. I’ve noticed with both them and Hills that even though they say they have removed BOG they are both still active on my account. Perhaps they don’t have the system capability to be able to do it.

                Francis 23/05/18 10:49 AM Reply


  • looking through the Southwell card and in the 6-05 Ulis De Vassy is 16-1 tackles 3 miles for the first time has won at 2m4f at this course and generally does well at Southwell, has 5lb claimer Patrick Cowley on board which means everything else in the race is giving him at least 27lbs excluding other claims with the top weight a massive 39lbs, if and it is a very large if Ulis De Vassy lasts home must be ion with a shout. not a tip just a ponder any thoughts anyone?

    martin whittle 23/05/18 6:27 AM Reply


    • sorry cocked that up normally my maths is pretty good should be 17lbs and 28lbs, where’s that edit button Josh 🙂

      martin whittle 23/05/18 6:39 AM Reply


      • bugger think i’ve still got it wrong, in fact looking again Remind me later with Harry Teal on board is only giving him 10lbs which makes the 4-1 look pretty good. my brain hurts now going for a lie down.

        martin whittle 23/05/18 6:45 AM Reply


        • after having a lie down still can’t leave this alone.
          Remind me later 1pt win 4.3-1 boosted WH
          Ulis De Vassy 1/4 pt ew 16-1

          martin whittle 23/05/18 9:01 AM Reply


          • I’ve seen worse 16/1 shots I think. I thin he gets 31lb from the top weight inc claims, but that will be for a reason and isn’t necessarily a positive. He does have plenty to find BUT, is fit and in form- that’s more than can be said for a few of these. He is also unexposed over 3m, and as he gets older appears to be running as if he’s well worth another go over the trip. He may well not stay but has shaped over 20f in C3s as if worth a go. Not the worst EW wager, as a few of these may need it, and if he just keeps plodding on that may be enough for a place at worst. I can see some sort of appeal, although clearly no chance if some of those run up to their marks/stay etc. GL Josh

            Josh 23/05/18 10:52 AM Reply


  • Josh

    LTO Losers
    Psychocandy War 6.45 15/2
    09/04 Ludlow Notes.
    Timeform Has been out of form for a while, but at least traveled with a bit more purpose over C&D 11 days ago and her yard is in reasonable form at present.

    Mike

    mickeydee 23/05/18 9:51 AM Reply


    • Ah yes, tipped two starts back over hurdles. Unexposed, although now 0/14 and questions to answer. Only had 2 chase runs though and some minor promise LTO. This wouldn’t be the strongest of C4s although the top 2 in market look solid. Could be they prefer to race her in a higher grade with noting on her back, rather than plenty more weight in a C5. Dunne on. Of some mild interest maybe but still stuffed LTO by 30l. Not 100% sure she stays 3m. Maybe today will reveal more.
      cheers
      Josh

      Josh 23/05/18 10:48 AM Reply


  • Josh I messed up and we are going to Windsor tomorrow not next Thurs as I wrote yesterday! Fully understand if you don’t have time to look.

    Dan 23/05/18 10:11 AM Reply


    • Ah. Well actually, that may work out just fine. A full day ‘in the office’ today, so no bother. I did think that was rather organised! I’ll get something up of note, probably later on or certainly between 10-11am tomorrow.
      Josh

      Josh 23/05/18 10:13 AM Reply


      • Just been told we’re going to Sandown now. My mistake, apologies

        Dan 23/05/18 11:57 AM Reply


        • Sounds good, an evening meeting isn’t it, so not so much of a rush, suspect I’ll aim to have a look/get something posted between 11-12pm, and just post a comment up here/bolt onto bottom of the post.
          Josh

          Josh 23/05/18 12:34 PM Reply


    • Don’t think there’s a meeting on at Windsor tomorrow.

      Ken McKenzie 23/05/18 10:19 AM Reply


    • The next Windsor meeting is on Monday.

      martin colwell 23/05/18 10:28 AM Reply


    • Looks like Windsor are on for the next 4 Mondays, but no sign of anything on a Thursday.

      neilmck 23/05/18 10:29 AM Reply


      • Yep my mistake, getting confused. We are going to sanddown

        Dan 23/05/18 12:25 PM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Ayr
    3.05 Gaelic Wizard
    3.35 Club Wexford
    4.05 Plough Boy

    colin leafe 23/05/18 10:12 AM Reply


  • Widnes in the 15:25 at Yarmouth @ 6.60 Now 6.60
    Call Out Loud in the 16:25 at Yarmouth @ 5.20 Now 4.90
    Angelina D’Or in the 17:55 at Kempton @ 4.90 Now 5.80

    Richard 23/05/18 2:46 PM Reply


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