A quiet day in store today, so I thought I would defer to my friends at SP2A and their Elite Tips for today. So far together we have ran two special trials periods for RTP readers (that’s you!) – 3 months at 50% off, and a money back guarantee if they make a loss to advised stakes and to SP over that period…. around 70% of trialists have stayed with SP2A for the medium to long term which is some indication as to their quality. Admittedly they have had a difficult few weeks recently, although they did tip the 1000 Guineas winner at 100/1, as one of their 1/4 point EW mention horses. That was fun 🙂 It does mean they are due another spike soon (in the first trial period, Oct-Dec they won followers around 330 points to 1 point EW bets at advised prices, 165 points to 1/2 point EW) I have convinced Ian to open the doors once more for another special trial period, so you can see for yourself and judge whether you wish to add them to your portfolio. They remain the best service of their type I have come across.
In the meantime, fingers crossed for these Elite tips (big Saturday/Festival races) below…
|ELITE||NEWB||3.40||5 Deauville – 14/1 / 10 Lightning Spear – 16/1||½ e/w|
|(Tricast -: 4 Beat The Bank + 11 Limato)|
|ELITE||NEWM||3.15||1 Yafta – 11/2 / 9 Rebel Streak -12/1||½ e/w|
|(Tricast 12 Showmethedough + 2 Mayyasah|
|(SEE write up for enhanced Odds)|
Over to Michael, who is their big race tipster in chief…
I know from my own personal betting this week that it has been tough to find winners for a number of reasons. The weather has improved and due to the lack of artificial watering in a wet Spring, it dries out very quickly. I’ve seen a number of races this week dominated by pace on parts of the track, where you would not expect winners to come from. The image I get is of a lot of horses running well but in with no chance of winning as the pace and therefore advantage is on a different part of the track. It is also the case that the firmer the ground, the harder it is to come from “off the pace” as some horses simply can’t change gear, if they strike the ground and they feel a “rattle/pain” from the firm going under their feet.
It is something to bear in mind, not only for today, but also in my own case, to track a number I have backed this week that have lost for the reasons above, but who actually ran quite well, and I have a few from York and Newbury to take forward for coming big meetings like that.
My Tips and Logic -;
In the LOCKINGE STAKES at 3.40 the O’Brien trained Rhododendron is all the rage, whist I understand why, I don’t think the price is any value, I’m not sure it will appreciate conditions and not sure this is the optimum trip. I actually think the O’Brien second/third strings have more solid form claims and of the pair I like the chances of DEAUVILLE. The far side looked a bit faster yesterday so a draw in stall 3 may be a good one. They do have chance to “sort themselves out though” so tactically 3 is no problem, the Good To Firm Going and straight mile look optimum to me and I think the jockey is a very under-rated tactical genius, who knows the horse very well.
LIMATO is the Class of the race but 1 mile flat out, I’m not sure, if they dawdle in the first 1/2 mile and he gets clear passge he could use the undoubted speed to good effect but on balance I think he is more Tricast value. Zonderland should run better than the bare form and price suggests and for my other Tricast perm horse I will throw in BEAT THE BANK who may just need the run but who looks one to follow all summer and who can have no complaints about the trip and the Going. My second selection is “old” (in the context of the race)
LIGHTNING SPEAR; drawn 7 will be ideal; always runs well “fresh”; loves a straight mile, likes the Course and a proper Mile horse who will love the “hustle and bustle” of the race. Some may see this as a stepping stone for the season, I’ve no doubt this is a plan from LS!.
(Please note it is NOT a Handicap so results will be declared to 3rd only but SKYBET go to 5th place and many others to 4th – shop around)
So 1/2 point each way on DEAUVILLE and LIGHTNING SPEAR and a Tricast Perm add Limato and Beat The Bank
In the 3.15 at Newmarket The Betway Handicap; I narrowed my field quite quickly down to a short list of 4 with nice marks and nice chances on the Going and I will again have a dash at a Tricast Perm and for that will add SHOWMETHEDOUGH and MAYYASAH) both are live dangers and just missed my final cut. I think the proven Course form and well-being of YAFTA means it is the one to beat here but still decent value and the firming ground should not inconvenience. A bit more speculative is REBEL STREAK; that one has had a run already; will strip fitter for it and will appreciate the better ground. When you study closely the form it is clear that as a 2 year old it was running in better overall company than this, with some merit, is highly mentioned by Trainer in Spring update, and under the radar a bit value wise.
(Coral + Paddy Power + Sky go odds to 4th here so use if you can and shop around as others may too)
So 1/2 point each way on YAFTA and REBEL STREAK and a Tricast Perm add Showmethedough and Mayyasah.
GL with any bets.