Free Daily Post: 19/05/18 (Guest Tips)

A quiet day in store today, so I thought I would defer to my friends at SP2A and their Elite Tips for today. So far together we have ran two special trials periods for RTP readers (that’s you!) – 3 months at 50% off, and a money back guarantee if they make a loss to advised stakes and to SP over that period…. around 70% of trialists have stayed with SP2A for the medium to long term which is some indication as to their quality. Admittedly they have had a difficult few weeks recently, although they did tip the 1000 Guineas winner at 100/1, as one of their 1/4 point EW mention horses. That was fun 🙂 It does mean they are due another spike soon (in the first trial period, Oct-Dec they won followers around 330 points to 1 point EW bets at advised prices, 165 points to 1/2 point EW) I have convinced Ian to open the doors once more for another special trial period, so you can see for yourself and judge whether you wish to add them to your portfolio. They remain the best service of their type I have come across. 

You can find full independent proofing to SP /BFSP for Daily Tips HERE>>>, Mentions Tips HERE>>>, Elite Tips HERE>>> (those are the three that make up the tipping package) 

If you would be interested in finding out more about this offer, when it becomes live, you can add your name to a waiting list HERE>>> , and I’ll be in touch soon. 

In the meantime, fingers crossed for these Elite tips (big Saturday/Festival races) below…

 

Tipster Course Time Horse Stake
ELITE NEWB 3.40 5 Deauville – 14/1  / 10 Lightning Spear – 16/1 ½ e/w
(Tricast -: 4 Beat The Bank + 11 Limato)
ELITE NEWM 3.15 1 Yafta – 11/2  / 9 Rebel Streak -12/1 ½ e/w
(Tricast 12 Showmethedough + 2 Mayyasah
(SEE write up for enhanced Odds)

 

 

Over to Michael, who is their big race tipster in chief…

I know from my own personal betting this week that it has been tough to find winners for a number of reasons. The weather has improved and  due to the lack of artificial watering in a wet Spring, it dries out very quickly. I’ve seen a number of races this week dominated by pace on parts of the track, where you would not expect winners to come from. The image I get is of a lot of horses running well but in with no chance of winning as the pace and therefore advantage is on a different part of the track. It is also the case that the firmer the ground, the harder it is to come from “off the pace” as some horses simply can’t change gear, if they strike the ground and they feel a “rattle/pain” from the firm going under their feet.

It is something to bear in mind, not only for today, but also in my own case, to track a number I have backed this week that have lost for the  reasons above, but who actually ran quite well, and I have a few from York and Newbury to take forward for coming big meetings like that.

My Tips and Logic -;

In the LOCKINGE STAKES at 3.40 the O’Brien trained Rhododendron is all  the rage, whist I understand why, I don’t think the price is any value, I’m not sure it will appreciate conditions and not sure this is the optimum trip. I actually think the O’Brien second/third strings have more solid form claims and of the pair I like the chances of DEAUVILLE. The far side looked a bit faster yesterday so a draw in stall 3 may be a good one. They do have chance to “sort themselves out though” so tactically 3 is no problem, the Good To Firm Going and straight mile look optimum to me and I think the jockey is a very under-rated tactical genius, who knows the horse very well.

LIMATO is the Class of the race but 1 mile flat out, I’m not sure, if they dawdle in the first 1/2 mile and he gets clear passge he could use the undoubted speed to good effect but on balance I think he is more Tricast value. Zonderland should run better than the bare form and price suggests and for my other Tricast perm horse I will throw in BEAT THE BANK who may just need the run but who looks one  to follow all summer and who can have no complaints about the trip and the Going. My second selection is “old” (in the context of the race)

LIGHTNING SPEAR; drawn 7 will be ideal; always runs well “fresh”; loves a straight mile, likes the Course and a proper Mile horse who will love the “hustle and bustle” of the race. Some may see this as a stepping stone for the season, I’ve no doubt this is a plan from LS!.

(Please note it is NOT a Handicap so results will be declared to 3rd only but SKYBET go to 5th place and many others to 4th – shop around)

So 1/2 point each way on DEAUVILLE and LIGHTNING SPEAR and a Tricast Perm add Limato and Beat The Bank  

In the 3.15 at Newmarket The Betway Handicap; I narrowed my field quite quickly down to a short list of 4 with nice marks and nice chances on the Going and I will again have a dash at a Tricast Perm and for that will add SHOWMETHEDOUGH and MAYYASAH) both are live dangers and just missed my final cut. I think the proven Course form and well-being of YAFTA means it is the one to beat here but still decent value and the firming ground should not inconvenience. A bit more speculative is REBEL STREAK; that one has had a run already; will strip fitter for it and will appreciate the better ground. When you study closely the form it is clear that as a 2 year old it was running in better overall company than this, with some merit, is highly mentioned by Trainer in Spring update, and under the radar a bit value wise.

(Coral + Paddy Power + Sky go odds to 4th here so use if you can and shop around as others may too)

So 1/2 point each way on YAFTA and REBEL STREAK and a Tricast Perm add Showmethedough and Mayyasah.

GL with any bets. 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

10 Comments

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  • I had hoped to put up a review of Newbury yesterday with photos and a preview of a couple of today’s races but time forbids.

    I will try and pop up the ratings before the off.
    Hugh

    alpha2 19/05/18 10:32 AM Reply


  • Morning folks,

    Sorry it’s a bit late.
    20 points being staked today.

    Will try and do running total later if I get chance. Think we are still 250+ not sure. Been a quiet few days for me so let’s see if we can source a couple of nice priced winners from this lot….

    THK 2.10 newgate angel 80s, 3.20 sfumato 33s, 3.55 music seeker 28s and save the bees 33s, 6.10 etienne gerard 50s
    Nav 3.10 abamanova 14s….I just missed the 20s last night on this one. 14s is the price I got…into >9s
    NEWB 3.40 zonderland 33s
    UTTOX 7.05 schap 16s, 8.05 goal 16s…..I know a lot of you have been asking Josh about ‘next time out runners ‘ he tips. I don’t think my list is looking much different! This one ran last weekend and I tipped it.
    DON 6.20 oberyn martell 12s, 8.20 scenery 22s is what I got last night.

    Good luck today

    jarrodholmes68 19/05/18 11:27 AM Reply


  • Sorry 22 points!

    jarrodholmes68 19/05/18 11:30 AM Reply


  • Took 4 from the ITV races today, 3 from Newbury and one from Newmarket. Hopefully continue the nice form from the ratings today.

    13:50 Newbury – Shalaa Carnarvon Stakes
    1st – All Out -> 74.48 (28/1 gen)
    2nd – Juliet Capulet -> 66.28 (7/1 gen)
    3rd – Shabaaby -> 49.65 (9/1 gen)
    Notes: Hannon has a good record in this race with 3 wins in the last 13 races. His runner today is top rated All Out. Hitting all my trends for this race is All Out as well. All Out seems to be where all my notes/trends seem to point so I feel I have to tip her. The other two don’t really catch my eye for any particular reason. Tip -> 0.5pt EW All Out

    15:00 Newbury – London Gold Cup
    1st – He’s Amazing -> 102.17(11/1 gen)
    2nd – Loyal Promise -> 78.89 (12/1 gen)
    3rd – Master of Win -> 78.10 (10/1 gen)
    Notes: Master of Wine hits all trends with the other two missing the mark on one trend each. Out of the three, the two that stand out is He’s Amazing and Master of Wine. Master of wine ran strong over 1m LTO on his first run of the season meaning this extra 2f could be suited. He’s Amazing has yet to be out of the places in all of his starts but he is progressive and the 6lb penalty for winning LTO should not provide too much of an obstacle. Tips -> 1pt WIN Master of Wine and He’s Amazing.

    15:15 Newmarket – Betway Handicap
    1st – Yafta -> 112.98 (9/2 gen)
    2nd – Encrypted -> 70.87 (20/1 gen)
    3rd – Rebel Streak -> 55.75 (14/1 gen)
    Notes: None of the three hit all trends, Yafta is the most likely from the trend rating. The two I would put some change on is Yafta and Rebel Streak but it will be low stakes as I don’t feel as confident about any of these as I do others. I will note Wahoo who hit all my trends but the draw let him down, if he can over come the draw he could feature. Tips -> 0.5pt WIN Yafta and 0.5pt EW Rebel Streak

    15:40 Newbury – Lockinge Stakes
    1st – Addeybb -> 86.60 (4/1 gen)
    2nd – Beat the Bank -> 82.27 (11/1 gen)
    3rd – Alexios Kommenos -> 74.29 (25/1 gen)
    Notes: Beat the Bank is the only one to hit all stats from all the horses in the race. Addeybb has never raced on fast ground like to today so is a complete unknown as to if he will thrive on it, has the ability but the concern over ground means no back from me. Alexios would need a career best to feature today which I don’t think he will achieve. Beat the Bank would be my selection, progressed well last season when wining clear at Newmarket in a G2. If he continues to progress he could be one to watch this season. Tip -> Beat the Bank 1pt EW (taking 4p)

    That’s all from me today, hopefully get some nice winners today. Odds are as of 11:00 so apologies for any change in odds.

    Good to luck with your bets.

    Chris M 19/05/18 11:42 AM Reply


    • Well one of those days where the ratings did not quite hit the mark, finding only one of the winners out of the four. However a nice place at 28/1 adv and 20/1 SP. I was right to be hesitant with my suggestions for betting today, I had a feeling that although the ratings point to certain horses it does not mean they are the definite ones to go for. If you had staked how I advised the day ended +0.25pt for advised odds and -1.38pts at SP, however still in profit since I started tracking the odds back on the 9th of May.

      I think there are a few races on ITV later in the week, need to check my diary, so will try get them done and posted before midday of the race-day.

      Pleased to see some others from here or the members post found winners in these races, I think this group is amazing with the info and insights people share. Literally one of the best places to discuss and share with like minded people!

      Chris M 19/05/18 9:05 PM Reply


  • 19th May Newbury, Newmarket,
    Newbury 4.15
    Ratings
    1. Marie’s Diamond, Almufti, The Irish Rover
    2. Barbill, Steeve

    Newmarket 3.50
    Ratings
    1. Angel’s Hideaway, Keska Thebah
    2. Beyond Reason
    Ratings Bet 1pt Win Thebah, 1pt Win Angel’s Hideaway
    Fun Bet Sung Choi Bao e/w
    I am particularly interested in Sung Choi Bao here. Here are my comments from her debut –
    10 Sung Choi Bao – Better than shown here, a good illustration of how important a good 2yo jockey is. Danny Brock missed the break, panicked and rushed her up which got her over-racing so inevitably she ended up fading. How badly she faded is a concern but worth a considering nto if she has a different/better jock. 69
    Today she has John Egan up and I suspect that JCH would not be trying her again at Newmarket if she did not think she was ok. Fun Bet Sung Choi Bao e/w
    Hugh

    alpha2 19/05/18 12:07 PM Reply


  • Hello Josh,hope you are well,is it still possible to buy the track guides ,and if so could you post a link thanks

    michael murphy 19/05/18 1:40 PM Reply


    • Anything is possible! 🙂 They will be finished next week, new stats been in use for some time but due to my to do list not getting shorter I have hit the stage of researching a track as the meetings are run for the first time. About 6/7 left for flat guide and 3 or so for summer jumps. Will package it up and think of a price.
      Josh

      Josh 19/05/18 1:47 PM Reply


      • cheers

        michael murphy 19/05/18 2:16 PM Reply


  • Lockinge trends
    12/12 GB/Irish bred
    12/12 No tongue tie
    0/24 stalls 1 and 2
    12/12 113 – 136
    11/12 top rated or within 5lb
    12/12 1st/2nd in last 3
    11/12 group 1 run
    12/12 same grade or up 1from LTO
    12/12 top 5 LTO
    9/12 181 – 300 days last run

    Leaves one horse LIMATO tried twice at 1 mile once in the breeders cup and when not getting a clear run in this race two years ago when it could also be said the stable was out of form.. Will also like the firm ground which is something Addeybb has not run on.. should be take to it he will run LIMATO close.

    Robert bland 19/05/18 1:48 PM Reply


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