Members Daily Post: 17/05/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Salisbury 

4.55 – Magic Beans (micro going) 10/1  UP

 

York 

4.05 – 

Original Choice (all hncps 5 yrs, 4yo+) w1 14,30 ES+ H1 9/2 S3A 

Afaak (m class + runs) 7/1 WON 7/1

Baraweez (m going) w1 14 H3 G3 13/2 S5  UP 

 

Newmarket 

6.55 – White Desert (all hncps + m runs) I3 G3 9/4 3rd 

 

JUMPS 

Perth 

3.05 – 

Frightened Rabbit (m1) I3 7/1 3rd 

Instingtive (hncp h) H1 I3 15/2 S5 UP

3.40 – 

Until Winning (hncp c) H3 I1 5/1 UP

Nefyn Bay (hncp c) w2 H1 I3 9/2 S5  UP

4.15 – Morning With Ivan (m1) w2 w1 H1 I3 9/4 WON 11/4 

4.45 – Gentleman James (m1) 25/1 S2A  2nd 

5.15 – 

Fit For Fifty (hncp c) 

Harleys Max (m1) H3 13/2 

5.50 – Green Zone (hncp h) 13/2  UP

 

*

KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 6th May 2018)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 6th May 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

*

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 9/97,32p, +14.5)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +101.5)

 

NOTES – NONE... nothing from Section 1 jumping out at me at the odds/profiles etc. 

*

Ah some bad luck I feel at Perth where Reivers Lodge was tanking into contention off the home bend when slipping up. We will never know but given how the race finished I suspect she’d have swept past the eventual winner. Thankfully both rider and horse appeared ok after what was a horrible incident. What with getting caught on the line with the previous tip, it’s been a frustrating couple of days. 

Thankfully we had another winner for Flat S6, 16/1…meaning that has pulled in 40 odd points I think in recent days, 60-65 at BFSP. All of a sudden that P/L is looking rather healthy and promising moving forwards. I do have a lot of hope pinned on that strategy, as previously discussed. Hopefully all you system enthusiasts have that one in your portfolio. If you are going to follow one, this is it I think. The Haggas horse won at 5s for nearly the full house…. trainer in form, a w1, S3A S4 S5, he hit plenty and did the job. The Fahey micro found a 12/1 winner and the 16/1 second in the same race, although not much else to cheer from the ‘big meeting’ ‘quals’ 

For info… Abareeq, who I tipped 7 days ago at Chester, runs in the 6.55 Newmarket. I’ll probably have to have another nibble to get back some of my losses from there. He moves up in trip here and down in class, on a more galloping track. It could be he doesn’t appreciate turf but I may pay one more time to find out, possibly EW (as race looks to have a few interesting unexposed ones in it, one of whom is a qualifier above). Do with that as you please. I need to improve my tracking/mentioning of previous tips. Given plenty of them focussed on unexposed horses it makes sense that they should go close at some point, and many previous tips appear to win/run well on their next 1-3 starts. Another ‘way in’ anyway. 

Looks like Love Dreams (also tipped LTO) runs in the 4.05 York at 20s or so. He was keen to the start LTO and left his race there is appears, having then raced far too freely before fading. Stamina is a new test for him here, as well as needing to settle.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Big Meeting Notes: York Dante 2018

Stats for previous 5 years

David O’Meara

  • 5-7f: 25 bets / 8 wins / 11p / 32% sr / +71 SP / +114 FSP
    • 8f+, 0/35,3p
    • 5f: 5/14,6p, +50

John Gosden

  • Ran 16-30 days ago: 18 bets / 8 wins / 11p / 44% sr / +16 SP / +18 BFSP

Richard Hannon

  • 0-5 career runs, 9/1 or bigger SP: 10 bets / 4 wins / 6p / 40% sr / +49 SP / +72 BFSP
  • Up 2 classes: 2/9,3p, +39
  • Class 2: 2/2, 2p, +25

 

York  Day 2 

2.20 – Edward Lewis 

3.30 – Crossed Baton 

 

2.20… no overly strong views on this and having had a quick flick through there don’t appear to be any strong stats/trends…and long gone are the days where I will attack a race like this ‘cold’ (I tried one summer and it wasn’t good for the mind)… If you want a fun interest I see no reason not to back Edward Lewis above…he has some very good placed form in good races. Being a hold up sort he will always need luck and he has track form. It may be they are priming him for another go in The Dash in a few weeks time. Also El Astronaute is interesting from a pace angle… he is so fast and from his draw should be able to bag the rail…which I’m sure his trainer said he likes in a previous interview. There should be no excuses and he will be the one to catch. My fun £5s will go on those two I think.  

*

Blessed To Empress… I forgot to mention her… she ran ok at Yarmouth but Lemos reported that she hated the ground and found it too firm- it was rock hard apparently.. she was changing her legs throughout the race, never happy, and in that context it makes the run even better really, as she kept trying. A line through that one but she ran all the was through to the end. Gutsy little filly. And it appears the team have sorted the stalls issues which is good. 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

50 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Hi Jarrod, thanks for posting and I wish you all the best. I have been following your selections not all but most for the last week. Only small stakes but it is fun. Some of them I have been having half point win and a full point place. As I type Moi Aussie has just won, thanks again. Richard

    Richard 16/05/18 5:38 PM Reply


  • Jarrod
    Moi Aussie was a Josh S1 pick I make that 4 wins from 6 ?

    Well done

    Mike

    mickeydee 16/05/18 5:59 PM Reply


  • great tip moi aussie josh and jarrod i know you two put pain staking hours in to get these stats but prices are very good.without these stats these races will seem impossible just hope you in particuliar jarrod feel well enough after your illness to keep putting all the work fantastic work paul

    paul bailey 16/05/18 6:22 PM Reply


    • Hi Folks,

      I’m asking someone who lives near a BETFRED high street bookies and also operates an account with a bookmaker online that offers cash out bets on MULTIPLE BETS, fun bets , mug bets.

      I want you to take part in an experiment. The online bookmaker must not be 365. I expect total confidentiality!!!!! You must also be willing to lose 50+points. I will be operating with exactly the same approach and placing the same bets. This is only ever going to happen once. The first person to email me this evening will be privileged!

      jarrod.holmes68@gmail.com

      jarrodholmes68 16/05/18 8:08 PM Reply


  • What are you talking about? Plain English please Jarrod,none of this cloak and daggers nonsense 🙂 That reads like one of the glossy brochures you get through the door before promptly being conned out of a few bob 🙂 Josh

    Josh 16/05/18 8:17 PM Reply


    • Not sure if this is the right place for this kind of thing

      warren bottonmley 16/05/18 8:41 PM Reply


    • LOL Good job you said that Josh and not me !!

      chubnut 16/05/18 8:49 PM Reply


  • Ah Priviledged ,
    No Thanks.
    Carey St . Beckoning again
    R

    Richard HannellAh 16/05/18 8:45 PM Reply


    • Very good Richard not heard that one before had to google it up.

      colin leafe 17/05/18 1:41 PM Reply


  • Morning folks ,

    My selections will be posted by 13.30 at the latest. I have four that tie in with Josh’s list. Two offer no value now but did! The other two are GREEN ZONE and INSTINGTIVE who both offer value but i will not be tipping because of my MO…..price cap. Both of them offer value, in a bet to nothing, if playing .

    My list tomorrow contains only 4. There will be no other bets .

    If you want a time frame …..between 12 and 1pm.

    jarrodholmes68 17/05/18 12:32 AM Reply


  • Morning,

    Sorry, haven`t been on for a while, getting my betting head together change is as good as a rest etc.
    Here are todays thoughts etc.

    14.20 York
    COPPER KNIGHT 10/1 gen
    Copper Knight is having his first run since September where he ran on heavy ground. He has ran well each time prior to that on better ground off a rating of 100 back to 96 now only 1 above his last winning mark. He is never far away and won at York May last year, might need the run but worth an each way chance here.
    CARLTON FRANKIE 16/1 gen
    With the hope that a Wind Operation will put wind back in the sails of Michael Easterby’s Carlton Frankie running off a real low mark of 84 where form figures over 5 furlongs of 2 wins from 5 starts is very encouraging.

    16:05 York
    ISOMER 9/1 gen
    Represents the trainer and jockey combination who won this race last year,the tip finished 2nd behind (examiner) 1m Newmarket on g/s ground off (90) he runs of the same mark today,he has his ground today,and if he had it against (examiner) he would of won and gone up 7lb,so with the ground in his favour,in my opinion he is a winner without a penalty,also fits the age and weight trends.
    MYTHICAL MADNESS 14/1 gen
    Trainer David O’Meara’s Mythical Madness a bridesmaid in two of last 3 starts can go one better today on a tidy low mark and is on best suited distance of One Mile also where both these runner up berths were made.

    17:35 York
    WORLD WAR 20/1 gen
    Had some useful form for his previous yard Ger Lyons, including in handicaps off similar marks. That said, he may not instill any confidence in anyone, but, his speed figures are quite decent and could catch some of the more fancied runners on the hop! cheekpieces have been left on, so they may now know one way or the other if they work.
    STONE THE CROWS 12/1 gen
    Mixed last season for the Roger Charlton yard, racing at the 1m 4f distance for most of the campaign. He hinted that he needed further, joining a yard who does well with these types.

    Good luck with whatever you back today!

    Stewart 17/05/18 6:05 AM Reply


    • Morning again,

      Just a quick note on the selections Josh, i use racing post first to do my homework, then watch the runnings of the said horses ,then look to see if they have been selected on the stats pack etc you use (this always gives me confidence and if doubled up with sp2a i have a touch more on). I know it`s not very scientific, but, it`s what i use and it works for me! Speed ratings and trainer/jockey form are my first starting point though!

      Regards,

      Stewart.

      Stewart McMillan 17/05/18 6:16 AM Reply


      • yes welcome back, I had wondered where you’d got to! A break from racing is very important every now and then, I pin most of my ‘Festival success’ over that mad few weeks down to that week or so of non racing thanks to the snow, it was heaven.
        It sounds like you have a method which is important!
        If you feel like you’ve been struggling I would try and focus on a specialism… my foundation was 3m+ handicap chases and, as well as researching micros etc, they were the only races I would attack ‘cold’ (no starting point/way in) for a good couple of years while I learnt my trade- well, to a point they still are really. Less can be more, but it is about being consistent with an approach, whatever it may be, and sounds like you have one – it’s just whether you wish to only focus on a certain race type/distance/class with said approach.
        The amount you bet as well is vital, if you get to point where you are ever thinking about the amount you are betting/losing, then you’re betting too much, as that will impact on the mind/analysis/enjoyment. You have got to relish solving the puzzle first and foremost, as that what makes staking amount/winnings and irrelevance and just a happy by-product. After my disastrous first year at Uni, most of my free tipping on the blow was stuck around 5s, before then 10s, and now 20s, but that was a 3-4 year process of moving up through the gears, linked to confidence and steady bank growth.
        The odds you play at, generally 10/1+, will mean some pretty fallow periods, and you’ve just got to have the belief in your methods to get through.
        Josh

        Josh 17/05/18 10:29 AM Reply


    • Welcome back Stewart. It is a long term game and we all have down turns. You just need to think about what works and what does not and adapt and see how it goes? Before I succeeded in betting/trading I failed a lot but did learn my lessons. Good luck.

      martin colwell 17/05/18 10:16 AM Reply


  • Rock On Baileys York 16:35 1pt e/w
    El Astronaute York 14:20 1pt e/w
    Holmeswood York 14:20 0.75pt e/w
    Love Dreams York 16:05 1pt e/w

    Nick Mazur 17/05/18 9:04 AM Reply


    • The rot has finally been stopped. Gutsy there from El Astronaute.

      Nick Mazur 17/05/18 2:34 PM Reply


      • Both needed that win!!!

        colin leafe 17/05/18 2:37 PM Reply


        • Great start to the day. Thanks Nick!

          neilmck 17/05/18 2:40 PM Reply


  • May has been a bit of a hard month so hopefully turn it around. 2 form me today:

    15:30 York – Nordic Lights (9/1 gen) 1pt EW
    17:25 Salisbury – Popsicle (18/1 paying 5p, 20/1 paying 4p) 1pt EW

    Chris M 17/05/18 9:21 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Good to hear the presenters on itv saying that it was the first time that we have had proper summer time going hooray.

    York
    2.20 El Astronaute
    4.05 Baraweez
    Newmarket
    6.55 Abareeq won a class 2 and this is a class 4 and Joe Fanning is in the plate.

    colin leafe 17/05/18 9:31 AM Reply


    • Thanks Colin.

      neilmck 17/05/18 2:43 PM Reply


    • Great days work Colin. Many thanks as always.

      Francis 17/05/18 7:24 PM Reply


    • Top work Colin!!

      Nige C 17/05/18 9:39 PM Reply


  • Anyone else having login problems with Ladbrokes ?

    geoffwylde 17/05/18 10:14 AM Reply


    • Yes, problems for the last week intermittently.

      buckers1969 17/05/18 11:14 AM Reply


  • Yep can’t log in all morning Geoff

    Aaron Lumsden 17/05/18 11:13 AM Reply


    • They clearly haven’t taken the £2 decision that well! 🙂

      Josh 17/05/18 11:14 AM Reply


  • Darran Pearce free preview of Fontwell Hunter chase evening…
    https://nonleaguetipsblog.wordpress.com/2018/05/17/fontwell-hunter-chase-night/

    Josh

    Josh 17/05/18 11:14 AM Reply


    • THANKS JOSH FOR THAT POINT OF REFERENCE ……..NICE TOUCH WINNER AND FORECAST IN THE FIRST ….. PAID FOR EVENING ALREADY 🙂

      BRIAN 17/05/18 5:25 PM Reply


    • BOOM .. AND ANOTHER WINNER AND FORECAST .. SIGN HIM UP JOSH !! LOL

      BRIAN 17/05/18 5:38 PM Reply


  • Hi folks

    Another beautiful sunny day.

    Only four from me today thank God!

    Sal 2.10 Power seeker 40/1
    3.15 Brancaster 16/1
    5.25 Radstone view 28/1 watch your bets!
    York 2.20 Holmeswood 16/1

    One brave, maybe foolish man took up the chance. We spoke on the phone last night.

    I told him VOLUMINOUS 3.50 SAL would drift like a barge!!!!… 18/1 in places I think. How did I know that? At that price I couldn’t resist! But not included in the main bets.

    jarrodholmes68 17/05/18 1:00 PM Reply


    • I’m confused…

      took up the chance for what? To be your runner/guinea pig?

      Voluminous is a steady 8-10/1 across the board… you backed him, laid him, done what with him? and why isn’t he in your ‘main bets’? He was 18s? You told your new phone a friend that he would drift and that he’s shortened, or that he will drift from his price now?
      Stop being so cryptic, it’ starting to annoy me… ‘how did you know that’, well yes, how did you? (albeit he hasn’t drifted yet, so as yet, you don’t know it…) Unless you have your terminology confused and you meant he would be backed? I’m lost, help me out… I preferred the Jarrod who posted his trainer stats based picks and that was that…. 🙂 Unless I have just had a sense of humour transplant and something has been lost in translation!

      Josh

      Josh 17/05/18 1:18 PM Reply


      • Well said.

        Warren Bottomley 17/05/18 1:32 PM Reply


      • let us not get stressed. Just clear and concise posts on horse racing on this blog and a bit of Golf and Football as well on the free post.

        Roaring Lion is drifting beyond 3/1. Does he become value now?

        martin colwell 17/05/18 1:42 PM Reply


      • Hi Josh, nothing cryptic about it. Yesterday evenings price on 365 was 11/2. Today… The same firm went 18s for a time. To me this is value.

        Why is it not tipped….. Because I don’t think there is any jucie for me at the price.

        Reason…. Fanshawe does not set the world alight with such types 7% win 30% place but for +28.93 and+ 56.95. For horses running at that distance.
        Within this class the figures improve slightly to 8%win 33%place for + 51.10 and 99.51???

        Draw is good. Wood rides here well enough. FANSHAWE is without a winner from 21 runners but eleven placed.

        Do I think this horse will win?…. Probably not. Do I think it’s got a good chance to be placed absolutely.
        Therefore at 11/2 it was a no bet. At 18/1 it’s a steal. Now if it goes below 9/1 on the exchange the I will lay it to the same win value of my ew bet. Thus giving me a free bet and creaming from the place return. If I can’t lay at 9/1 or below I’m not fussed. I’m just not greedy but I do like value!

        My research is starting to show patterns in habits, betting habits, bookmaker habits. That’s why I was confident this horse would drift.

        I don’t understand why I’m annoying you? I don’t have the time to give you a write up on every bloody horse I post. This will only every happen when I do have the time.

        Take a chill pill man!

        jarrodholmes68 17/05/18 2:07 PM Reply


        • Oh and yes my new ‘phone a friend’ is doing a live test for me today.

          Love the sarcasm

          jarrodholmes68 17/05/18 2:09 PM Reply


          • To be fair Jarrod some of your posts come across as a little confusing. There’s a lot of posts and people that don’t have time to follow it are going to be really confused.
            I get why Josh is irritated and I get that you can’t do a write up on everything but the ‘Jarrod’s little helper’ post and the ‘drift like a barge’ is along the lines of the shitty tipster patter which I’m sure you’re not but clear explanations of what you’re trying to say would be less confusing I think.
            Anyway keep up the good work and I wish you every success, personally I don’t have enough time to follow your bets but they do look good, well done!

            Chris Albin 17/05/18 2:57 PM Reply


      • Oddschecker shows a graph of the horses price throughout the day. Just click on the horses name.

        At 09.36h it went to 18s . It lasted until 10.16h. If you scroll to the bottom of the page it tells you the previous evenings closing price….13/2. When the book opened yesterday it was 11/2. Cant prove that though.

        jarrodholmes68 17/05/18 2:44 PM Reply


        • DYOR

          jarrodholmes68 17/05/18 4:05 PM Reply


      • I know you have not been well recently Josh, hope things are improving for you.

        Time is against us all! I apologize if my posts are annoying you. But i simply dont have the time to give reasoning behind my bets.

        Whatever i post or tip is always with good reason and solid research( i assure you all that fact). The problem for me right now is the amount of information to share. Why would i allow what i’m finding to be all privy to the masses? DYOR! Is that not what i said in my earlier posts regarding my tips? Do you think i back every horse that appears on my list?

        At the end of the day what i’m tipping now on the board is one avenue. Its showing a steady gain, not great but steady. For everyone on here i think thats enough. Its fun and exciting. This is but one sphere. There are three further avenues that are doing well. Some crazy strike rates and the longest losing run on one is ten but two of those returned even money-ish.

        That cryptic enough for you Josh?

        Like above, with the reasoning behind my selection and the explanation behind why i saw value in VOLUMIOUS please dont push me. Im an extremely placid man and im proud of my humility. I say very little!

        Those comments last night from yourself and others puzzled me. It is very difficult to express yourself via a text, post, tweet, two facebook etc….unless you personally know the person. Therefore, apologies for my far from perfect English….im not an educated man!

        The only conclusion i arrived at was- even you have confessed to being drawn into those glossy brochures in your early days! So have i. I presume so did the others who commented and even the people who thought it but didn’t post. I think you lost why you started this community. Was the aim not to get the losers on board and show them a different approach to betting? Were most of them struggling gamblers ? You changed my thinking. For that im eternally grateful!

        So what im trying to say is …..Ive been on most of your journeys. I have sort the holy grail! This board was about honest people sharing honest ideas. I dont say much but when i do take notice!

        jarrodholmes68 17/05/18 4:01 PM Reply


        • Jarrod it is nothing to do with your excellent selections,or indeed lack of write ups etc. Now I know roughly your MO that is less important. You’ve missed the points of my comments and irritation. I think it’s more around certain language all non related to any tips but that must be a personal thing! There is plenty of obfuscation in a few of your comments which are also said in a tone which suggets I should be so lucky to be in your presence. That is probably just me though. I’ll leave it there. I’ll email you in future when irritated.

          ‘I don’t say much but when I do,take notice’ , is anything but humble but I’m sure that irony wasn’t lost on you 🙂

          People can read this exchange and make their own view. Maybe I’m just tired. Back to the horses. 🙂

          Josh

          Josh 17/05/18 5:06 PM Reply


          • Absolutely.

            jarrodholmes68 17/05/18 5:14 PM Reply


        • I agree with you that it can be difficult to express via text sometimes especially when pushed for time or lots of stuff going on

          Chris Albin 17/05/18 5:08 PM Reply


  • Big doubts that Roaring Lion will stay the extra 2 furlongs and it as only won on gd/sft and with the going gd/fm today will it act on the going.
    For me too many negatives and would not say that 3/1 is value,will just watch and savor the race and watch it win by about 6 lengths who knows,more than likely not me!!

    colin leafe 17/05/18 2:00 PM Reply


    • Based upon ratings I have had to have a go on Roaring Lion at 10/3 BOG as well as Zabriskie at 50/1.

      martin colwell 17/05/18 2:46 PM Reply


      • Boom! Gave them a beating did the Lion and the third each way as well.

        martin colwell 17/05/18 3:40 PM Reply


        • Well done Martin

          colin leafe 17/05/18 3:42 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh

    AVONDHU PEARL was one of your “Note” Tips 5th may Hexham
    Running today 4.45Perth. Currently 6/1.

    I have now done a wee ew treble on all 3
    Abereeq and Love dream.
    “Wheelbarrows” Lol.

    Mike

    mickeydee 17/05/18 2:30 PM Reply


  • Have been busy for a while with farm (yes summer has come to the west of Ireland too) so not much time to post and my bets have been few but I did have a winner today on Dive for Gold @12/1.A moderate amount of research would have found that one,but I have been following the comments.I think the concept of this site is to allow people to find their own path.josh’s stats based approach and Nicks excellent form analysis and many more who have their unique approach,given generously with no agenda.Now this is good but Josh may make a fortune on Blessed to Impress and Nick may find an oil well at the end of the garden.I would do better in the short term by folllowing their tips/strategies rather than my own scatter gun approach but that might rob me of the confidence to use my own aproach.Sharing of ideas and analysis is what the site is about to make us all benefit together and find our own path

    gearoid180468 17/05/18 5:47 PM Reply


  • ..well done and big thanks to all that tipped El Astronoute and Abareeq…:-)

    Nige C 17/05/18 9:46 PM Reply


Post A Reply