Members Daily Post: 16/05/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Yarmouth

2.45 – 

Ciaoadiosimdone (micro class/age) I3 8/1 UP

Luna Magic (m class) G3 4/1 UP

3.20 – Right About Now (m class move) G3 11/2 UP

4.55 – Slow To Hand (m going) 30 I3 11/4 UP

5.25 – 

Dark Side Jazz (3yo+) 15/2 (hncp debut)  UP

Moi Aussie (m dist) I1 14/1 S6 WON 16/1 22.34 BFSP

Aldbury Lass (m class/age) 25/1 UP

 

York

5.35 – Reverand Jacobs (all hncps 5 yrs, 4yo+) w1 14,30 ES+ H3 I3 G3 5/1 S3A S4 S5 WON 5/1>4/1 

 

Bath

5.20 – Amberine (m dist) 14 ES+ 25/1 S3A UP

5.55 – 

Coronation Cottage (m dist) 14 ES+ H3 I3 9/2 S3A UP

Sweet Pursuit (m age) 8/1 UP

 

JUMPS

Newton Abbot

3.45 – 

Moorlands Jack (hncp c + m2) H3 I3 7/1 S5  WON 9/1 (BFSP 13.5) 

Mick Thonic (m2) H3 9/2  2nd 

4.15 – Ladies Dancing (m1) 14,30  12/1 S2  UP

 

Perth 

6.35 – 

Dakota Grey (nov hncps) w2 H1 I3 4/1  UP

Motion To Strike (nov hncps)  12/1 S2 2nd 

7.05 – 

Quantum Of Solace (all hncps + m1) 14 9/2  WON 9/2>7/4 

Bahrikate (m1) H1 I1 7/2 3rd 6/1 

8.35 –

Benechenko(all hncps) 14 13/2  UP

Reivers Lodge (m1) 15/2 UP (slipped up when tanking/would have played a role) 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 6th May 2018)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 6th May 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 9/96,32p, +15.5)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +101.5)

NOTES

8.35 Perth – Reivers Lodge – 1 point win – 15/2 (gen) Slipped Up…ahhh, poor horse… how’s your luck… horse and jockey fine which is main thing, she was running a big race there, hadn’t been asked a question when everything else in trouble for me. She had pulled at times and not 100% sure how much shed have had left but I think she may have swept past winner. Damn. Hopefully same price next time over 3m on decent ground! 

that will be all for tips

None of the flat qualifiers leap off the page to my eyes today so i’ll stick with a jumper again. I thought 15/2 looked a shade big although i’m basing most of my hopes around her one win which was at Kelso in October where she beat Chapel Stile- he’d go on to win his next three starts and is now rated OR122. That was her first run ‘at a trip’ on decent ground… this will be her second. It will be the first time she’s run in a race with ‘good’ in the description and i’m hoping that sees her return to the winners enclosure. Her mark has come down a few pounds in the meantime. She ran ok the last day here over 20f in soft, but should appreciate this step back up in trip. 23f+ appears to be trip and has rarely run a bad race around this distance, even on very soft/heavy ground. There are quite a few older horses in here and plenty of the rest have questions to answer. The fav won LTO but has to prove his stamina, which he may do. But I thought 7/2 looked short in that context. Yesterday’s poke got caught on the line, done by a head. Hopefully Reivers can go one better.

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York…’through the card‘… one of you asked me to have a look through…I haven’t had time to do a video and in any case, it’s a minefield! A ‘through the card’ for a mid-week meeting at a Pontefract say is a bit different to a Day 1 of the Dante meeting! My views on the stakes races are not worth much and you just cannot do a card like this justice in the 20-30 mins I would usually spend on such a task. A mundane meetings is far less of a headache. What thoughts I do have…

2.55 (from free post) in order of preference… Ower Fly / Quick Look / Golden Apollo / Dark Defender

4.05 – Lubinka (simple top rated GG, won LTO, is a price and I like the colour of the silks… 🙂 )

4.35 – my eyes would be on Fahey and O’Meara, whose horses hit the two sets of stats below. That will do. That is 5 horses mind, but maybe some shrapnel on the biggies.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Big Meeting Notes: York Dante 2018

Stats for previous 5 years

David O’Meara

  • 5-7f: 25 bets / 8 wins / 11p / 32% sr / +71 SP / +114 FSP
    • 8f+, 0/35,3p
    • 5f: 5/14,6p, +50

John Gosden

  • Ran 16-30 days ago: 18 bets / 8 wins / 11p / 44% sr / +16 SP / +18 BFSP

Richard Hannon

  • 0-5 career runs, 9/1 or bigger SP: 10 bets / 4 wins / 6p / 40% sr / +49 SP / +72 BFSP
  • Up 2 classes: 2/9,3p, +39
  • Class 2: 2/2, 2p, +25

 

Day 1 ‘Qualifiers’

2.55 – Out Do

4.05 – Highgarden

4.35 – Three Saints Bay / Montague

5.05 – Mayson Mac

 

Fahey Micro

A few qualifiers against an old Fahey micro for this meeting have appeared in my HRB account…it looks at his runners in 7f Handicaps at York this week, that have 0-1 run in the previous 90 days… 4/13,8p +10, since 2011, 0/4,1p last two meetings. Day 1 qualifiers…

4.35 – Clubbable / International Man / Zap

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Blessed To Empress…(6.00 Yarmouth) 

Shares Available… 

There are a handful of shares available in our star filly! Don’t all barge down the door at once, but if you wanted to dabble in the thrill of racehorse ownership, this is a decent opportunity. Ok she’s no world beater but she has a great race attitude as we all saw at Chelmsford a few days ago and she will race plenty over the coming months, meaning any shareholders get plenty of opportunities for days out at the races etc.  Blessed is in training with Amy Murphy at Newmarket who is a breath of fresh air, down to earth and has time for everyone, especially when you’re track side.

The shares run from 1st May 2018 to 30th April 2019, and 2.5% will cost you £1000 for the year. There is the option of monthly payments. The fees cover all training,vets,jockey, entry and facilities costs. The share is a full share meaning you receive 2.5% of all prize money accumulated over the year as well as 2.5% if the syndicate decides to sell Blessed come the end of the year. (we think she may be worth around 20k already as a broodmare)

The guys who run the syndicate are first class and you’ll receive regular updates, videos from Amy and full race previews/reviews every time she runs. There are owner days at the yard and if your’re in the area and give forewarning, Amy doesn’t mind visitors. I have never experienced anything like Chelmsford, emotionally, and it’s fair to say i’m hooked. This is your chance to join a great bunch of people (plus me! :)) who know how to have fun at the races and get the most out of their experience.

By all means send me an email if you’re interested/have any questions, but the main man you need to contact is Jay, who you can email on whitediamondracing@outlook.com or get by phone… 07501101379  .

She has won twice for us now and is sure to give us all plenty of fun in the next 12 months. She does get her head down and battle and combined with her prominent running style should ensure a few more thrills yet at C5/6 level, on both turf and the AW.

Blessed runs in the 6.00 Yarmouth on Wednesday. Sadly I can’t make it but she should give her running again. Turf shouldn’t be an issue but she does have that to prove. It may be that she just enjoys an all-weather bend, but she should be up there for quite a way in this. It is a 3YO only handicap so no weight-for-age allowance, and there are fair few unexposed sorts lining up so we shall see. She looks to be a decent EW poke at 12s, 4 places, and i’ll have another nibble, although not a bullish one! (this will be much tougher than LTO I think)

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Please Note…

Thursday’s post will be up a bit later than usual. I’m making an unscheduled trip back down to Suffolk again on Wednesday. I have a funeral to attend on Thursday for a close family friend, taken too soon by the dreaded prostate cancer aged 66. Sadly I suspect he’d have made a full recovery had he gone to get tested much sooner than he did, so if you are a male, age 50+, (that’s going to be a fair chunk of you) and you’ve yet to get a PSA test, please do. You never know.  Anyway, as usual you won’t notice anything different at all really. I need to work out how to get my video recording kit onto my lap top as that’s the only thing I miss when away from ‘the office’.

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

32 Comments

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  • Evening all,

    now tomorow makes an interseing list and we are looking at some healthy stats.

    Its a small list….hooray!

    NA 415 ladies dancing 20/1
    YAR 4.55 sea tea dea 14/1….525 Moi aussie 20/1
    BATH 5.20 Amberine 20/1……. 8.25 parable 14/1
    PER 7.35 solway tiger 12/1

    I will be back with rolling profit later and i will be staking a few points, maybe two or 3 exacta bets, from which i will be using the rolling pot.

    jarrodholmes68 15/05/18 7:13 PM Reply


    • Thanks Jarrod. Bigger prices available with Amberline if you shop around, and it looks like the 20/1 on Ladies Dancing is gone. 14/1 is all I can see now.

      neilmck 15/05/18 7:48 PM Reply


      • Hi Neil,

        sorry i should of said i only quote 365.

        Two to add to above list plus some exacta bets to follow shortly.

        jarrodholmes68 15/05/18 8:04 PM Reply


  • Ok four to add to the list.

    YORK 435 montague 14/1
    YAR 525 flat out eric 40/1
    YORK 535 doctor cross 16/1
    N/A 415 mighty missile 40/1

    EXACTA BETS 1 point rev ….two points staked.

    YORK 4.35 montegue / cavatina
    N/A 4.15 ladies dancing / mighty missile
    YAR 5.25 moi aussie / flat out eric
    YAR 4.55 sea tea dea / wild acclaim
    PER 8.25 wyfield rose / late date.

    jarrodholmes68 15/05/18 8:27 PM Reply


    • Definitely much much smaller stakes for me on the forecasts. I think if you’re doing any kind of bets like this – accas, forecasts or tricasts – then you want to be staking considerably less than on the each way bets. Even if you’re really really good at picking them, the losing runs could be crazy at 100/1+ odds.

      Of course maybe you’ll hit one early on and I’ll regret this, but it’s going to be wee tiny bets on the exactas for me.

      neilmck 15/05/18 9:19 PM Reply


  • I believe we went into today with a plus +275 running total.

    Only using the 12/1 i put up last night.So for me a minus day. Well done to those who got 25/1 plus. So minus 1.6 point. Call it 2 because i round down????

    We move into tomorrow on +273 staking a total of 28points due to BATH 8.25 parable being a none runner.

    jarrodholmes68 15/05/18 9:25 PM Reply


    • Jarrod, you should’ve got 25/1 if you have Best Odds Guaranteed (BOG) as it was 25/1 SP.

      Ken McKenzie 15/05/18 10:13 PM Reply


      • Hi Ken,

        I will just use the prices i posted for ease. You are welcome to keep your own running total. BOG,BFSP whatever you wish. I just dont have time. I dont know how many horses i have tipped. There is a running total somewhere in the posts.

        Are you trading these too like Neil?

        jarrodholmes68 15/05/18 10:33 PM Reply


        • Yes at small stakes

          Ken McKenzie 16/05/18 7:21 AM Reply


  • Banksea York Wednesday 14:20 1pt e/w (use Sky if you can) Price taken 13/2

    Nick Mazur 15/05/18 9:57 PM Reply


    • Hi Nick, I don’t see Sky offering any better terms than the other bookies. 3 & 1/5th. However, Bet365 are offering 3 & 1/4.

      Ken McKenzie 15/05/18 10:18 PM Reply


      • money back if 2nd

        martin26 16/05/18 7:16 AM Reply


  • off to Bath tomorrow night if anyone has anything worth having a go on.

    martin26 15/05/18 10:34 PM Reply


  • Correct but they are giving money back on the win part as a free-bet if he comes 2nd or 3rd (also some of us don’t have access to 365 any longer)

    Nick Mazur 15/05/18 10:39 PM Reply


    • That was mean to be a reply back to Ken

      Nick Mazur 15/05/18 10:40 PM Reply


    • Only 2nd now Nick.

      Jim 16/05/18 12:54 AM Reply


      • should scroll down before posting 🙂

        martin26 16/05/18 7:18 AM Reply


  • Can get a little confoosing from time to time. Must be the longest thread in the history of the internet. What we could really do with is a bulletin board for all the tips and advisories and just keep the comments section for matters relating to Josh’s daily ratings.

    Not knocking the efforts of our resident advisers, I find them interesting too whether I follow in or not, but it would be better if only for continuity purposes if they were classified into separate threads.

    Tim 16/05/18 7:49 AM Reply


    • Totally agree Tim. The daily input from Josh at the top of the page should have an area thats ring fenced solely for members to add info to those horses EG going, trip, draw, pace etc and dangers in the race for the benefit of all.

      chubnut 16/05/18 9:24 AM Reply


      • The message board point may be valid and when I get a moment to breathe over the summer i do need to ponder upgrades to the site and a look at how the comments work etc is on the list.

        Both your other points would be valid if that ever happened. The members comments have never really been used by anyone to discuss/analyse the content in my daily posts… that has never been the case. I would enjoy it if people put up what they are backing/how they may use the content as starting points, but maybe not many do and those that do, don’t wish to comment. Fair enough. There wouldn’t be any comments if they were restricted/ring fenced for thoughts only on my content in daily posts! 🙂

        The comments have generally always been based on members musings for the day, what they fancy etc. In amongst the odd more general discussion. So it’s not as though the current approach is to the detriment of what you both would like to see, because as I type such comments have never really been posted.

        Josh

        Josh 16/05/18 9:44 AM Reply


  • Hi guys,

    Two horses that graged my attention last night that have drifted to VALUE that were not on my list…. I will be staking 1point ew on each.
    310 N/A here’s herbie 14/1
    425 YORK cavatina 11/1

    jarrodholmes68 16/05/18 9:12 AM Reply


  • Few from me today:

    14:00 Newton Abbot – Bubble O’Clock (8/1 Coral, 15/2 gen) 1pt EW
    Debut proved to be a tough one as he refused to settle then tailed off LTO. However coming from a top a yard he cannot be written off yet. He has tongue tie fitted for the first time and steps up in trip to run his first hurdle race. Nicholls has a knack of getting horses ready for their second starts, if you have backed them blindly you would only end up less that 5pts down at SP. Add to that the jockey who he has some nice form with, bubble O’clock could feature here today.

    17:55 Bath – Coronation Cottage (9/2 gen) 1pt WIN
    Tipped her LTO when she didn’t make the break at the start which left her all to do. However after that first race she will be much more capable and sharper after that first run. Her mark further dropped after that race LTO which means her mark is a very workable point. Loves today’s course as she has proven in the past, with the faster ground she could be the one to beat today.

    18:55 Bath – Roc Astrale (8/1 gen) 1pt EW
    Solid debut over a year ago, he has since had a wind op and been gelded but he was below that first attempt LTO where he may have needed the run for fitness after such a long break. If he can capture some of that level he ran in last year then he can feature today. Jockey and trainer have a good record when running together here at the course.

    Chris M 16/05/18 9:36 AM Reply


  • Some thoughts on 2.55 York, not a tipping piece but some musings…
    https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2018/05/16/free-daily-post-16-05-18-hold/

    Josh

    Josh 16/05/18 9:46 AM Reply


    • I don’t have access to any form to check your stats but is that ‘5 or less career runs’ really true? I’m sure some if those qualifiers you’ve put up have run more than 5 times?

      gallou 16/05/18 10:58 AM Reply


      • Josh has put on the free post that he meant wins not runs

        Chris Sengelow 16/05/18 11:16 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh,
    A while ago someone asked about your losing tips/notes that subsequently went on to win next time out but I can’t find the post for your reply and as Ice Tres romped in yetsreday I was hoping you might revisit the question.
    cheers
    also
    Well done Jarrod, I’m still sitting on the fence but for how much longer can I afford not to jump off ?

    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 16/05/18 9:47 AM Reply


    • Hi Mike,

      This is getting a little crazy…..
      Where do you think the money is coming from for these horses?

      Good luck

      jarrodholmes68 16/05/18 12:43 PM Reply


    • I don’t know the exact figures Mike but I think enough of them do well on their next few starts for me to start doing something with them properly in terms of tracking/flagging them..the Loughnane one I tipped at Beverly that did nothing won on next start at same CD 25/1. Missed that. Given I generally focus on unexposed ones and/or in form, it makes sense that they may go close on their next 1-3 starts even if i’m premature with my picking! Just forming the habit and it’s all a bit go at the moment with one thing or another.But members are free to track my tips haha.
      Josh

      Josh 16/05/18 1:11 PM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    3.10 Newton Abbot Oskar Denarious
    4.35 York Excellent Times
    7.25 Bath See The Sea

    colin leafe 16/05/18 10:44 AM Reply


  • Lovely. Another biggie for S6. That’s starting to roll now but won’t need many winners for decent profits if it keeps finding 16-25/1 shots. Hope you were on.

    Josh 16/05/18 5:36 PM Reply


    • Josh, Jarrod + Inform Top rated had to have a go! Thanks all

      James P 16/05/18 5:54 PM Reply


      • I backed it twice not realising both Josh and Jarrod gave it.
        Happy days

        warren bottonmley 16/05/18 6:29 PM Reply


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