Members Daily Post: 15/05/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Beverley 

4.10 –

Areen Heart (4yo+ 5 yrs, 4yo+, micros TJC/age) ES+ I3 11/2 S3A UP

Jacbequick (4yo+ 5 yrs, 4yo+) ES+ H3 7/1 S3A  UP

Alejandro (all hncps) H1 I3 3/1 S2  2nd 

 

Chepstow 

6.20 –

Zlatan (all hncps) I3 6/1  2nd 

Mr Tyrrell (m dist) H3 6/1 3rd

Start Stream (m age) (hncp debut) 9/1 UP

Hatts Off To Larry (m age) H3 6/1  UP

6.50 –

Kinglami (m TJC) H3 I3 G3 13/2  S4 S5  UP

Showmethewayavrilo (m class) I3 16/1  UP

7.50 –

Miss Inga Sock (all hncps) w2 ES+ H3 I3 7/1 S3A  UP

Upended (m dist) 16/1 UP

Shadow’s Girl (m dist) 100/1 UP

 

JUMPS

Sedgefield

2.00 –

Handy Hollow (m1+m1) ES I3 11/1 S2 S3 S5  UP

Millie The Minx (m2) 33/1 UP

 

Wincanton

2.50 – Lizzie Langton (m1) ES  14/1 S2 S3  UP

4.20 –

Bramble Brook (hncp c + m1) ES+ H3 I3 2/1 S3A  WON 5/2 

Rise of An Empire (m1) H3 I3 11/10 UP

 

Southwell

5.30 – Global Domination (m1) w1 H1 7/2 

8.00 – Visage Blanc (all hncps) 15/2 2nd head

8.30 – Laugharne (hncp h) I1  5/1 WON 5/1>6/1 

 

*

KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 6th May 2018)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 6th May 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

*

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 9/95,31p, +16.5)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +101.5)

NOTES

8.00 South – Visage Blanc – 1 point win – 6/1(gen) 2nd, ah, she’s bumped into one there, the Skelton’s having found the key, the winner would have won a shade more easily had she not made an error at the second last, but always annoying when you’re caught on the line! Mine has stuck her neck out and kept battling so no complaints, given a good ride also. On we go. 

that will be all for tips 

I’ll keep this write up fairly brief as my stomach bug doesn’t appear to be going anywhere as yet, i’ve had about 3 hours sleep and this morning is a bit of a struggle. This one is lightly raced in handicap hurdles for connections, this being her fourth run in one. It’s her second start after a break, which I assume was to miss the worst of the winter ground, she steps back up in trip and down in class. And she was ‘running on’ LTO over shorter to give some hope that she’s in form. She appeared more interesting than most in here in what looks a fairly open/mediocre race that may not take much winning. She ran the last day as if worth another crack at this trip and hopefully its the making of her over hurdles.

*

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps

A Honeyball 

4.50 Winc – Port Royale (m1, 10/1<, m2, 5/1<) UP

 

Flat 

R Fell (any odds, 8/1< best)

4.40 Bev – Ad Libitum UP

5.10 Bev – Camden Town UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Results… the links in the Key above for the strategies have been updated, correct as of 6th May.

All the flat strategies are ticking along and as of the 6th were all in profit bar S6 I think, but Sam Missile will have put that right last week I think, esp to BFSP!

I did note that all section 1 qualifiers (both Flat + Jumps) that won LTO (w1 for ease of reference) are now : 16/59,24p, +25 to morning odds, since 6th Feb when I started tracking. +25 points or so a quarter would be decent enough from that most simple of approaches. We shall see where that is at come 100 bets. Global Domination the only qualifier on that front today I believe.

*

York Notes…to follow at some point.

 

*

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

39 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • jarrold great tipping how do you back your selections win or each way also wondered how long have you been using your system

    paul bailey 14/05/18 7:48 PM Reply


    • Hi Paul,

      All to 1point each way. This is not a system mate.

      The only time i was able to apply what you are seeing now was on a weekend. Slave to the clock! In Feb i was diagnosed with a brain tumor and work promptly sent me packing! So i’m now doing something i have always been passionate about.

      jarrodholmes68 14/05/18 10:36 PM Reply


      • Good on you jarrod. Like all contributors a breath of fresh air with your approach.

        Paul Ebrey 15/05/18 7:55 AM Reply


      • Your company’s loss is our gain! Hope all is well now with your health that sounds pretty serious. At least its giving you time to do something you’ve always wanted to do

        James P 15/05/18 9:38 AM Reply


        • Thanks James P.

          Serious it is and yes it’s their loss!

          This is another reason for my posting more frequently….

          I’m hoping to set up a tipping service before the end of the year. Something I have dreamt of doing for a very long time. This is proofing ground for me thanks to Josh. Mainly because I have no soild financial income and the prospect of employment is now very slim. I’m going to be looking for an individual in the near future so I can mentor them on my analytical approach just incase my faculties start to decline rapidly, with the view that if anything does happen to me and we have a ‘live’ tipping service it will be able to continue without me.

          We shall see… Way to go yet!

          jarrodholmes68 15/05/18 10:57 AM Reply


          • A sad tale indeed. I wish you all the best with your plan.

            Regards

            Andy

            westy2 15/05/18 11:18 AM Reply


      • Good luck to you Jarrod and thank you for your insights, they are appreciated

        Justin 15/05/18 2:15 PM Reply


  • Sorry guys but i have let the side down on here with time. I have missed the prices on two horses. I have managed to secure the odds so i will print new odds next to the movers

    Sed 2.00 Millie the minx 100/1 sorry folks now 28/1! 3.00 Siannes star 16/1. 5.00 complex kid 100/1
    Bev 2.10 Champagne clouds 33/1, 2.40 pearl of qatar 12/1, 4.10 zodiakos 16/1, 5.10 villa tora 16/1, 5.45 solider blue 33/1
    Sout 7.30 delirious love 16/1
    Win 4.50 cushuish 100/1
    Chep 5.15 country rose 40/1, rocky park 40/1, 6.50 showmethewaytoaverilo 20/1, 7.20 pink phantom 20/1 sorry now 11/1, 8.20 everlasting sea 12/1

    jarrodholmes68 14/05/18 10:26 PM Reply


    • Still 100/1 around for Millie.

      neilmck 14/05/18 10:53 PM Reply


  • Well we can pick 100/1 shots lol …millie the little minx! Showmetheway too.

    jarrodholmes68 14/05/18 10:28 PM Reply


    • Minnie the Minx, backed into 28/1 with bet 365 but still available at 80/1 in their first four market

      danegold 15/05/18 12:08 AM Reply


  • Rinaria Beverley Tuesday 16:10 1pt e/w
    Contre Tous Southwell Tuesday 18:00 1pt e/w
    Muthabir Southwell Tuesday 20:30 1pt e/w
    Hear The Chimes Sedgefield Tuesday 14:00 1pt e/w

    Nick Mazur 14/05/18 11:15 PM Reply


  • Minnie the minx
    Still 100.1 betfair

    Dave russell 15/05/18 6:37 AM Reply


  • with all the press coverage about ascot and goodwood’s drunken behaviour you would think this is something new, well it’s not new it’s happening at courses every weekend up and down the country. i posted on here back in november about my experience at wetherby and put up a copy of the letter i sent to wetherby racecourse which i received no reply.(copy of sent letter below)

    The phrase what a difference a day makes springs to mind after my 2 days at Wetherby, Friday racing not great but a lovely day out, nice people, good laugh, excellent staff. Saturday much better racing but packed to the seams with large groups of dickheads who all must have had colds the amount of sniffing going on in the toilets, rude aggressive drunken behaviour all around, even my son who is 30 said he wouldn’t want to do the saturday again unless we did the premier enclosure or the family bit in the middle.
    If you swabbed the temporary toilets the amount of traces of cocaine would be through the roof do you not know what’s going on or are you just turning a blind eye? the drug and alcohol fueled behaviour is deteriorating to such a level that a lot of your real racing enthusiast’s are going to be put off attending weekend meetings as the afternoon resembled more of a stag night than a sporting event.
    I admit i don’t know what the answer is to these problems but something has to be done.

    Yours Sincerely
    Martin Whittle

    perhaps drug sniffer dogs at the entrances and checking coaches before people were allowed in may help and the upholding of the law that you shouldn’t serve very intoxicated people more alcohol, but at the end of the day it’s money that talks and how any loss in revenue is viewed by racecourses.

    martin whittle 15/05/18 7:35 AM Reply


    • Completely agree Martin. More security more sniffer dogs and more police is a start. It costs the courses and puts up admission? A price that has to be paid.

      Paul Ebrey 15/05/18 7:58 AM Reply


      • Back in the day, Ponty gave free admittance to the local RUFC teams in the summer in exchange for depositing undesirables off the course. HSE would no doubt have a major migraine if it happened now. Therein lies the problem.

        titus_a_duxass 15/05/18 8:42 AM Reply


      • It is likely easily solved but would cost money and eat into profits. Beer money makes a big difference to profit or loss at courses. Stewards cost minimum wage but proper security costs at lease double and more. However if you put up prices you get less drinkers and so less revenue. Police cost even more as a dedicated resource and there are cut back in numbers there.
        Proper security would stop most of it as lairy drinkers would be warned and then ejected if they continue. Others would see it and mostly be wary of it. It is just the cost. Put a quid on a pint to pay for most of it?

        martin colwell 15/05/18 8:58 AM Reply


        • A review of the alcohol licence by the local magistrates is essential as drunkenness is leading to public order offences.
          The courses should ban ‘backpackers’ which is leading to drunk people drinking more, something banned in pubs.

          chrisrees 15/05/18 9:17 AM Reply


  • Morning good people,

    Beautiful day!

    I’m fully aware of the amount of horses listed. I shortened the list yesterday. Like yesterday, I’ve done the same today. The long term hope is that I can cut my list into a more manageable size. We’ll see how it goes aye?

    Yesterday’s running total is +10 should be reading +25.6 if you got the 33/1 widely available in the day!

    Showmethewaytoaverilo
    Zodiakos
    Millie the minx
    Pink phantom
    Siannes star
    Delirious love
    Villa tora
    Everlasting sea

    Good luck all

    jarrodholmes68 15/05/18 8:26 AM Reply


    • The other side of that is if someone did their bets when Silver Wotsit was 33/1, then they would probably only have managed 10/1 or less on Gravity Wave.

      A similar issue with your shortlist too maybe? Yesterday you would have missed a 20/1 winner compared to the full list of bets

      neilmck 15/05/18 8:38 AM Reply


      • See your point.

        jarrodholmes68 15/05/18 8:58 AM Reply


    • I’m not sure your method allows, but are you able to work out the true price (or your interpretation of the real price) of your selections?

      If so, we can work out the margin on your selections to the available prices and choose accordingly, this will also help those that miss the price as to whether to bother backing at a shorter price.

      James P 15/05/18 9:42 AM Reply


      • Isn’t that something which would be best done based on the actual results when there are enough to work with? I just think there’s a chance Jarrod sends himself bonkers trying to whittle down the list and inevitably missing some winners at a nice price while also trying to recommend minimum odds for each selection, and all of this happening with us watching on.

        On the minimum odds, especially at the kind of prices Jarrod is playing at, we’ll see plenty of his selections halving in price. I don’t know how he could judge if that’s necessarily a bad thing. Maybe the shortening price is a good sign because it’s seeing lots of support from others. On the other hand, that’s not to say the price drifting is a sign of weakness in every case.

        Just looking at yesterday’s two winners as an example. Gravity Wave came in from the initial 20/1 to about 14/1 yesterday morning and the price continued to shorten, before winning at 6/1 or so. The support for this one was clearly a good sign, but would the reduction in price have ruled it out for lots of people of Jarrod had suggested going no lower than 16/1?

        Silver Character went the other way, tipped at 20/1 but available at bigger prices the following morning. Less than an hour before the race it was available at 50/1+ on the exchange. It then saw late support and won at 11/1.

        I’m not sure how Jarrod or anyone else makes sense of that without sending themselves barmy.

        neilmck 15/05/18 10:01 AM Reply


        • I think you misunderstand me, I’m not asking to whittle down the list, or to do something that would add extra effort – If Jarrod’s method allows him to work out what he thinks is the true price of his selections, or their realistic % chance of winning then that would be useful info, as you can work out the edge compared to the market available prices. That way you can home in on the bigger edge selections. The market is volatile but the lowest price you’ll take should be consistent. If this is something that is too complex and not readily available to him then fair enough but I would find it useful.

          James P 15/05/18 10:38 AM Reply


      • Mate if I understood the true principles of making a ‘book’ I’m sure the results would be better.

        I’m too busy finding the qualifiers to feed the masses but my strike rate was much better before. I still looked at MO but they had to fit a certain % to prick my attention.

        The masses are going to crucify me now when I say at least 65% of the time the form book goes out the window…. Believe!

        The amount of horses that qualify at the moment is only down to more meeting. Something to consider.

        Josh’s list today is mediocre. Yesterday was small. Some days it’s huge.

        Well mine is no different. Thing is I’m spending on average 7hours working through lists. Like Josh they qualify to be backed. Up to you to do the donkey work or if you are following this blind ( cause I feel exposed) then proceed with caution. I research, hallucinate and research some more.

        Today may draw a blank. I’m due one.
        And yes it can happen.

        The problem is I have never kept a full record until recently. I need to invest in HRB. May Josh would be king enough to teach me how to use the bloody thing.

        Good luck today

        jarrodholmes68 15/05/18 2:42 PM Reply


        • Excuse the typo’s!

          jarrodholmes68 15/05/18 2:45 PM Reply


          • It’s easy once you get your head around it! 🙂 just trial and error, and depends what you want to do with it…for your approach Geegeez Gold may be better, anyway some old over the shoulder videos here..

            https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2016/08/23/horse-race-base-some-over-the-shoulder-videos/

            Another biggie goes in i see, i took a quick look in Geegeez racecard post win, quick dive into Ellison to see how you’d picked him out and in 30 seconds could see his record at Beverley/Non-handicaps/C5, last 5 years, before today’s winner… 10/34, 16p, +25, no idea if that was angle for that master stroke but in any case they are solid and would have lead to that one! well done.

            Josh

            Josh 15/05/18 2:57 PM Reply


        • I think you’re on safe ground here talking about form being irrelevant – it’s certainly something we’ve seen with Josh’s system picks over the years.

          A nice early 25/1 winner means we’ve got our stakes covered for the day, and anything from now on is profit. Thanks!

          neilmck 15/05/18 2:58 PM Reply


          • What can I say….

            jarrodholmes68 15/05/18 3:02 PM Reply


            • that is alot of studying jarrold 7 hours aday can you keep that up if you can you have a great chance of cracking it mate as they say its all in the stats

              paul bailey 15/05/18 3:25 PM Reply


        • No worries mate, I’m the same. In order to make a 100% book you would need to weigh up all the horses in the race chances using your criteria and that would be very time consuming. I just didn’t know if you already did that, then it would be useful to share, but can totally understand why not, its really not feasible with the number of races per day for 1 person to go through them all.

          I have a different theory to Josh’s on your Ellison winner as I research 2 year old races only and can see why you picked him. I was put off by his 2 year old runners form this year, i guess that’s what you mean by the form book goes out the window. I’m a firm believer in trainers targeting certain tracks and meetings esp with 2 year olds so that will teach me to be put off by form! Luckily i followed you in anyway but may have gone in harder, cant grumble with a 25/1 winner tho!

          James P 15/05/18 3:22 PM Reply


          • Oh yea, his stats with 2YO at track are pretty decent, and even more so in C5, 9/25,13p, before today’s. 10/35,16p with all 2 year olds at track in last 5 years, +21 or so.

            Josh 15/05/18 3:33 PM Reply


  • COLINS BETS

    2.50 Wincanton Ruby Russet
    6.00 Southwell Ulis De Vassy

    colin leafe 15/05/18 9:24 AM Reply


  • Morning jarrod will be fascinated to see how you go with the big prices for me there are two difficult areas with big prices one being non handicaps and other fillies or mares who in humble opinion like to be inform hence shorter prices I see a number of non handicap and female selections from you today I look forward to seeing the outcome good luck

    paul bailey 15/05/18 9:59 AM Reply


    • Boy, this is causing a stir!

      jarrodholmes68 15/05/18 11:43 AM Reply


      • Tell you what I am liking those lightly raced male handicappers like those two at Wolverhampton yesterday keep them up and l will be a happy man

        paul bailey 15/05/18 11:53 AM Reply


        • jarrodholmes68 15/05/18 12:21 PM Reply


  • Few from me today:

    14:10 Beverley – Moojim (16/1 gen) 1pt EW
    Watched the last race and he did not do much wrong, unfortunately it looked like he stepped on the pace too late as started edging forward well within the final half furlong. However jockey Lee now knows this so maybe today he can get revenge on Deep Intrigue who beat him at Musselburgh. Trainer and Jockey have a great record together here and this could be the one to change the yards form at the moment.

    18:20 Chepstow – Zlatan (6/1 gen 4p paid) 1pt EW
    His best form has come over much better ground than what he been running recently so getting some good ground today would be very welcomed. Add to that his mark has now dropped to 1lb below where he won off last year over the same trip and going. Trainer and jockey have some great form here over the years and this could be another one to add to their winners list.

    Chris M 15/05/18 11:25 AM Reply


  • well i never jarrold pearl of qatar 35/1 betfair that is a great strike

    paul bailey 15/05/18 2:46 PM Reply


Post A Reply