Members Daily Post: 14/05/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Catterick

None. 

 

Windsor

6.20 –

Little Palaver   (micro TJC/runs) 14,30 7/1  UP

Super Julius    (micro’s distance, age) 14 G1 8/1 S6 UP

 

JUMPS

Kempton

4.20 – Glengra   (all Hc’s) 7/1 UP 

 

Towcester

6.00 – Definitely Grey   (micro runs) I3 8/1 S5 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 6th May 2018)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 6th May 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 9/95,31p, +16.5)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +101.5)

Nothing today.

I have stared at Glengra for too long and decided I wanted a bit bigger than 7s given his profile. Were he 10s+ I may have waded in (if he drifts to that price now it won’t be a positive for me,given his profile)… fitness is a question although as we saw at Chester we know Williams can ready them, and the yard are clearly in decent form. This horse is very lightly raced for his age and this is only his 4th handicap chase start. They return to a track where he ran well over hurdles and drop him back in trip. The horse is clearly fragile/had issues so connections will either having him a1 here ready to run the race of his life, or they will want  a gentle return to action, it’s hard to know which and the market may guide. He also bumps into 3/4 chasers who are fit and in form. Williams wouldn’t have persuaded the owners to keep going with him if he didn’t think there was some ability so he is interesting over the summer months on decent ground as he could show himself to be well handicapped over fences at some point. Maybe i’ve got him wrong and it’s today. The market will no doubt guide.

Talking of Chester... I caught up with the excellent Luck On Sunday last night, which is probably my favourite TV show of the week. Dr Marwan Koukash was interviewed after his Chester exploits… I thought he’d gone off the racing/Chester radar in recent years so I found it insightful… his involvement in Rugby League had impacted his racing commitments over the last 4 years but he has now left the Rugby and re-focused on his main passion, which is racing. He stated again how his ownership of horses is all centred around having runners/winners at Chester – which is no shock, but when combined with his renewed focus on the sport, and his results last week, it’s good to know. Most/all of his runners at the course will be there to run the race of their lives and I doubt he will miss a meeting again over the coming years, as it’s as much a social occasion for him. Focusing on his runners at the track may be a decent starting point moving forwards, but time will tell.

Catterick...as it’s quiet and for a bit of fun, I flicked through the card looking for races where one/two horses only were representing trainers ‘in form’, as per the geegeez metrics in the Key above. So, those listed below are from yards who are firing on all cylinders, in races where all the other trainers are not. This doesn’t mean the other yards are out of form as such, but these horses represent in-form/red hot yards..in any case they are starting points and there are some at decent prices- use the info in your usual analysis, or not at all! 🙂 (i have not considered the horse at all, simply recent trainer form) They may all fall out the back of the TV, esp as a few are in non handicaps… (i have done this before on the odd occasion with some minor success)

2.00- Rock Party / Second Generation

2.30 – Dream Free

3.05 – Changing Minds

3.35 – Bush Beauty

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

Paddy Brennan (14/1<)

6.00 Towc – Grand Introduction w2

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Nothing much to add as yet. I will be updated the results links in the Key for all the strategies and bringing them up to date, to 6th May. And i’ll get last week’s summer up asap.

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

45 Comments

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  • Results update for w/c 7 May. Slow week on the AW front with just 2 meetings and 6 qualifiers but a small profit nonetheless.

    Staked 6pts, Profit 2.50pts, ROI 41.67% or £12.50 to £5 stakes.

    To date

    Staked 845pts, Profit 106.35pts, ROI 12.59% or £531.77 to £5 stakes.

    Quiet week again with just one meeting at Wolves tomorrow. Qualifiers as follows:
    1.50 Blasim 9/2
    3.25 Elysees 4/1 & Teaser 9/2
    4.00 Lady Makfi 9/2

    1pt win each

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 13/05/18 7:22 PM Reply


  • Straightothepoint Catterick Monday 16:40 1pt e/w-Price taken 7/1

    Nick Mazur 13/05/18 8:55 PM Reply


  • Morning folks,

    sorry but this is another list of 16!

    Wol 1.50 agent Smith 14/1, 2.50 gravity wave 20/1, 3.25 silver character 20/1, 5.00 lewinsky 33/1, suni dancer 16/1, 5.35 ad vitam 12/1, three c’s 12/1, st james park 22/1.
    Catt 2.30 simmo’s partytrick 33/1, 5.10 seamaster 9/1.
    Kemp 2.10 man of the north 66/1, 3.45 kaddys dream 11/1.
    Win 6.20 super julius 8/1, 7.50 towerlands park 25/1, 8.20 zabletaswansond 14/1, carlini 9/1.

    good luck all

    jarrodholmes68 14/05/18 12:29 AM Reply


    • Morning all,

      For those that are interested since Sat 5th May. 94 Runners 10 winners 25 placed for a
      +239 total including Ubar cool all to 1 point each way.

      jarrodholmes68 14/05/18 6:15 AM Reply


      • Sorry folks a few adjustments needed.

        TAKE OUT
        suni dancer, ad vitam and st james park ..3 in total.

        ADD IN
        wolves 2.55 the lock master
        4.30 spiritual star
        Kill 5.05 squadron commander

        If i were to narrow the list down my best bets in order of preference.

        lewinsky
        squadron commander
        seamaster
        super julius
        the lock master
        silver character
        towerlands park
        man of the north

        jarrodholmes68 14/05/18 7:50 AM Reply


      • Blimey, great results, well done!

        PAUL EBREY 14/05/18 7:54 AM Reply


    • So these are all tips? What stake would you use?

      martin colwell 14/05/18 10:01 AM Reply


      • I imagine you’d want a big dedicated bank for these. Given the odds he’s playing at, maybe 150-200 points would be sensible?

        neilmck 14/05/18 10:04 AM Reply


        • yep that sounds about right…well a 10% win SR would lead to losing runs of 66 or so, every 1000 bets, 24 (all unplaced) with a win/place SR of 25% or so, and everything in between, a few times, plenty in the 15-35 range, but given Jarrod’s approach that’s a couple of days and one winner prob wipes out all losers and returns to profit. No idea on the method other than trainer based some how, and as always some caution, but even for £1-2 stakes looks like could have some fun. I can’t think this recent spike is the norm so always caution of diving in after a possible spike, as a downturn, even if short, may be due, but then again, if not, then the bookies could be in trouble! Bloody good results over the last few days, mad really, esp the number of biggies.
          Josh

          Josh 14/05/18 10:20 AM Reply


        • Not for me, too many selections to make it pay long term.

          martin colwell 14/05/18 10:52 AM Reply


    • Well done with Gravity Wave backed in from 20s to 6/1 2nd fav. Belter.

      Mike

      mickeydee 14/05/18 3:00 PM Reply


      • Jarrod you have done it again

        SILVER CHARACTER 33s into 11s
        2nd win of the day, I got 18s on the first and 33s on this one.

        Thanks a lot

        Mike

        mickeydee 14/05/18 3:32 PM Reply


    • Fair play. Caught Gravity Wave at 11s and had the 25s about Silver Character. Cheers

      Max 14/05/18 3:29 PM Reply


    • And silver character makes it two 20/1 shots gone in! Seriously impressive

      James P 14/05/18 3:33 PM Reply


  • 9-1 winner and a 15-2 place out of 4 yesterday so a fair profit, no tips as such today but a couple like me who are reaching that veteran stage who might have a chance , £2 ew on both and a £1 ew double.
    Catterick 4-10. Itlaak 12-1 hasn’t won in nearly 2 years but that was off 72 runs today off 63 with a 5lb claimer first time in a class 6 on turf and if he can’t hit the frame today in this company he never will.
    Kempton. 4-20. Iona Days 9-1 won this last year and should be better back on a good surface.

    martin whittle 14/05/18 7:49 AM Reply


    • Iona davis is a qualifier for me to but not tipped !

      jarrodholmes68 14/05/18 12:28 PM Reply


  • Nice to see super julius on the list Josh. From memory i think when ours coincide we get
    4 runners 3 winners 4 placed. Not sure of the running total but sam missile was one of them.

    Kiss of death now i have mentioned it.

    Anyone off to Wolverhampton today? please don’t bombard me with ‘why would you go there’

    good luck all

    jarrodholmes68 14/05/18 8:21 AM Reply


    • Ha, probably! Well I hope you’re right, i’d like another one going in for S6.. he has a chance is staying, that is the big question/doubt but trainer clearly feels he’s worth another go over 6f, headgear on, should race prominently and may even lead. Trip could be making of him now he’s older, we will find out in a few hours! Is also a step up in class which is a niggle, but he is top rated on geegeez so fingers crossed. GL
      I haven’t looked at an AW card in 2018 so i’m not the one to reply to that question haha.
      Josh

      Josh 14/05/18 10:42 AM Reply


  • Josh i’m away for a few days meeting up with family and friends and am going to Bath evening meeting wednesday if you could have a quick look, i know your busy with York but any pointers would be appreciated.
    If anyone else has anything of interest please post.

    martin whittle 14/05/18 8:23 AM Reply


  • SUNDAY SUMMER JUMPERS :
    2.30 Ludlow – Pickamix = NON-RUNNER
    4.05 Southwell – Flemenstrix = NON-RUNNER
    5.05 Southwell – Ever So Much = u/p (4th) at 8/1

    MONDAY :
    3.45 Kempton – Miss Adventure
    4.20 Kempton – Barton Rose
    4.50 Kempton – Exitas
    5.30 Towcester – Cadeauxs Fire
    6.00 Towcester – Definitly Grey

    traf69 14/05/18 8:30 AM Reply


  • Few from me today:

    17:20 Windsor – Lifeboat (12/1 gen) 1pt EW
    Very few in this race has any form to go on, on that note maybe should be one to miss but I like a puzzle. Lifeboat caught my eye as the trainer has good first time Hcp form and he stepping up in trip for the first time. He may enjoy the trip or dread it but he is clearly doing something different and at these odds I am willing to take the chance.

    19:50 Windsor – Hawridge Glory (7/1 gen) 1pt EW
    Steady progress last season where he won twice with one coming over today’s trip. Showed he needed that first run LTO and has previous form to show he did. May come on from that run but step up in class could unravel him, however he gets the nod from me due to the trainer and jockey having some nice form around the track. I reckon he will be there in the end.

    That’s all from me.

    Chris M 14/05/18 9:53 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Catterick
    3.35 Maureb
    5.10 Seamster
    Wolverhampton
    4.30 Beatbybeatbybeat
    5.35 Rising Sunshing
    5.35 Caledonian Gold
    Windsor
    6.20 Open Wide

    Made a little back this week
    May minus – 14 points

    colin leafe 14/05/18 10:18 AM Reply


  • Not done any reasoning for a while so i thought i would give you my view on my main fancy today in the shape of LEWINSKY.

    Well Brittan on bare form with runners at Wolves in AW handicaps over the past 10 years is not inspiring 9% win 25% place! When we factor in distance and class at the course we read 21%w 34%p. If we look the operation over the last 2 years we get 23%w 35%p. In the last twelve months it improves to be a massive 30%w 40%p….10r 3w 4p. we have a good sample size! plus the MO of the operation are obviously hitting the winners in this sphere.

    Lets look at Mr Hardie , ( let’s not hope we are not saying ” well that’s another fine mess you got me into” by the end of this rant! ),this does not inspire confidence either at first glance. In all weather handicaps from 152 rides we get 9%w 25p. When we factor in distance and class we arrive at 14%w 23%p. Let us now put this together with riding for Mr Brittan we get 33%w 44%p.

    Brittan does quite well in this sphere with horses officially rated between 50-60. Those figures for this type of race read 14r 3w 4p.

    The hoss. Well he’s no world beater for sure. Having raced over further This is the horses first time over 7f and the first time the blinkers are on! Having looked at previous form, the horse has shown some speed but not been seeing her races out. This drop in distance should really help. The runs on the course dont worry me too much.Her sire is 11r 2w 3p on the aw over distance and class and 3r 1w 1p at Wolverhampton.

    Draw, could be better but this is no forlorn hope. I hope it pans out something like this…The break is key i think here. 5 BBB to burst for the lead, 9 FA coming over and blocking the runs of 1 RBTM and 10 HA allowing LEWY to settle probably 3 deep in 4th or 5th. Showing a bit of speed about one an half out to just lead on the line.

    Happy days!

    This is by far no good thing but with the above and a bit of luck we could have some nice points in the bank.

    jarrodholmes68 14/05/18 11:10 AM Reply


    • I have talked my bloody self into it anyway!

      jarrodholmes68 14/05/18 11:21 AM Reply


  • Me too!

    Jim 14/05/18 11:51 AM Reply


  • Josh,

    Do you believe?

    jarrodholmes68 14/05/18 3:31 PM Reply


    • In what? 🙂
      Your results have been mad, and with any luck some are getting stuck in. Well done. Not sure I have seen big priced winner finding quite like this in a short period, and I thought my Festival exploits were good!! It’s too many bets for me, and too early, maybe I should start at £2 bets on the machine, and I don’t like diving into too much without knowing the method behind the madness, and longer term results, in context it’s been 10 days or so of winners galore. Only you know on that basis if this is a hot streak / likely to continue/the norm against history or we are about to hit a -50 jobbie, which knowing my luck will happen just as i start to have an interest haha. Although with the prices you land them at such losing runs won’t matter a jot. It will be interesting to see where we are at in 3 months, could be 1000+ by that point!

      Josh 14/05/18 3:42 PM Reply


      • Absolutely my intention! But I’m going to attempt to break that in a month. Think it took Mr Priestly2/3 years to maintain a steady 1500.

        Not blowing smoke up my own arse but I am confident of doing so. I know my list seems excessive and I will start to try and narrow down the list. Prime example today though was the first winner at Wolverhampton not put into my main fancies!

        I understand a lot of you don’t like this many bets but it’s working. Oh and there is absolutely method to the madness…. Believe!

        Now comes egg on my face with LEWINSKY

        jarrodholmes68 14/05/18 4:08 PM Reply


        • yep, but that’s my point…your confidence,and hence anyone also following, has to either stem from your own historical results, which is what makes you so bullish and/or you’ve got a very sound logical approach that you are as sure as you can be will keep repeating, esp if any systematic/ratings element. If the long term win % is 8-10% then you will hit 50-80 losing runs, that’s just maths. And the only way for followers to have confidence in riding out such runs is linked to those two points above.
          I am enjoying this test, as I haven’t quite seen anything like it, and am fascinated to see how it develops. you’re a sport for posting, as is everyone who chips in. Your method is your method, so stick with it. If that’s the number of bets, that’s the number of bets, in time people can make their own judgement whether to follow etc.
          I’d be interested in a BFSP comparison over time as if those results continue as they do, we may not have any accounts left! 🙂
          Gary has been at it for years and stood the test of time for his own betting, he’s on +1750 odd since May 2013 at evening prices that he’s achieved, from 5584 bets, you’ve just gone through 100… I think we may all be rather wealthy if you get through 1000, 2000, 5000 and are still going. Long may you reign.
          Well i’m going to have back him now, so apologies!
          Keep up the cracking work,
          Josh

          Josh 14/05/18 4:44 PM Reply


          • Just based on the last week, the big difference between these and Gary’s tips is that the prices are actually achievable here. Gary often posts as soon as the market is formed, and when PP and BF in particular have prices that are way out of line. So far I’ve had no problems getting on at close to the prices suggested by Jarrod.

            And on the BSP point, I imagine the numbers will be impressive so far. If I’m not mistaken, First Flow was over 300/1 on BF.

            neilmck 14/05/18 5:09 PM Reply


            • Maybe it wasn’t First Flow. The 66/1 winner last week.

              neilmck 14/05/18 5:10 PM Reply


              • First flow was that winner

                jarrodholmes68 14/05/18 5:56 PM Reply


          • New it! Ffs!

            jarrodholmes68 14/05/18 5:11 PM Reply


  • Jarrod there seems to be a general consensus that everyone is hoping you are an actual genius but it’s hard to commit to backing your tips at the minute because of the volume of tips and the lack of proofing.

    How about tipping a nap, second best and third best for a bit and seeing how that gets on.

    I follow a tipster who appears quite similar to yourself who posts on a blog with 15-20 selections a day, it’s impossible to back them all and his ROI on them is ‘only ‘. He does his own 3 selections like I’ve suggested and his ROI is up to 30 odd percent and he is easy to follow. It means that often you miss big winners which is obviously frustrating but the system definitely works.

    Just a thought….I look forward to being on the receiving end of one of your big winners soon enough!

    Chris Sengelow 14/05/18 8:12 PM Reply


    • Should read only 8%

      Chris Sengelow 14/05/18 8:15 PM Reply


      • oh, nap, second best and third best is a personal annoyance of mine haha – it is so illogical and subjective I can’t get my head around it – as opposed just picking a ‘top 3’ which makes sense.. to this day I have no idea how someone, from a list of three, decides which one is a nap, as opposed to third best? – unless you start using systematic filters… often I suspect people just ‘nap’ the shortest priced one which makes no sense, as it can only be a subjective opinion based on emotion for me. I could have that wrong… I have no idea how Jarrod, from his list, would single just one out! It would drive him mad… also… he may correct me, but I can only assume there is some systematic element to his selection process, with set rules etc… I can’t think he is just going through races and ‘tipping’, albeit if he is just doing that , then that is an even more impressive run of form! This is his own personal approach to punting, a window into his world, and he shouldn’t change it really, it’s up to us what we do with them in time.. you/I/anyone else could use the list ourselves to pick our top 3, based on our own subjective interpretation, which is what jarrod would be doing anyway, assuming that isn’t the sole method for the selection in the first place.
        Josh

        Josh 14/05/18 8:32 PM Reply


        • Josh, nick, Colin, Jarrod, and all the others that contribute you all keep doing what your doing and please don’t change a thing. Your approaches work because that’s your approach. To change would be to change what has been successful. I really and honestly do not anythere you can go to get this quality and quantity of consistent BIG price winners anywhere at any cost. (Please point of in that direction if you can). There is something for everyone on here. I’ve said it before this community has change the way I approach and think about betting as a whole. And that is down to Josh and all those that contribute. Well done to you all.

          Warren J Bottomley 14/05/18 8:53 PM Reply


          • I tend to agree. I used to do a NAP etc but the truth is its amazing how often your least fancied runner wins which is why I think level staking is the way forward. Today is a perfect example where the one Jarrod fancied the most finished last so that clearly proves he shouldn’t be doing a NAP etc. I am sure he won’t mind me saying this but I don’t think Josh has an amazing record whenever he has tipped 1.5-2 pts. It is one thing trying to find a winner but another trying to get the stake right so easier to keep it simple.

            Nick Mazur 14/05/18 9:09 PM Reply


            • yea I think it’s probably pretty naff haha. Level staking is best, cuts out ‘staking emotion’ which is rarely based in logic from my experience to date..going 1.5 or 2 points is strange, not sure what drives it, but definitely more on the emotional than logical side I think – that still doesn’t stop me every now and then trying to be a smart arse!

              Josh 14/05/18 9:14 PM Reply


            • I full appreciate all the points made, it was just a suggestion based on a system which I’ve seen work with amazing results (34% ROI to level stakes over 15 months from very achievable prices).

              Nothing to stop all the selections still being posted so people can devise their own individual systems of course

              Chris Sengelow 14/05/18 9:15 PM Reply


          • Hi folks,

            let me thank you all for your input and kind words. It really means a lot. Egg on my face yes but not a bad day and i believe that puts the bank at +275. Tomorows list is wild so be warned. This is whats been working though so why change it?

            I promise you all this is no gimmick and not blind picking of 20, 33,40,50, 66, 80, or 100/1 shots in a race. This is not a system either. I will say again….i use exactly the same approach to Josh, Ben and the members on here ….i just dont have a HRB account. It is totally statistic based. Some very small samples on some…but i do my research on every race in the UK and IRE. Its very time consuming but i find ‘sleepers’….what i call value.

            jarrodholmes68 14/05/18 9:32 PM Reply


  • Are there any signs that you may be better at say handicaps, AW, or some other race criteria or is it too early to see just yet?

    Chris Albin 14/05/18 9:41 PM Reply


    • Hi Chris,

      It is based on races trainers target. Plain and simple. Makes no difference if its a novice hurdle, NHF, 2yold nursery.

      My ability is to find what i see being VALUE. It is time consuming but i have time on my hands now work finished me.

      Tomorrows list should be up by 22.30h

      jarrodholmes68 14/05/18 10:01 PM Reply


      • It was good to see your reasoning behind Lewinsky, and presumably you’re applying a similar approach to the other selections.

        Looking forward to tomorrow’s ‘wild’ picks!

        neilmck 14/05/18 10:10 PM Reply


  • Sorry guys but i have let the side down on here with time. I have missed the prices on two horses. I have managed to secure the odds so i will print new odds next to the movers

    Sed 2.00 Millie the minx 100/1 sorry folks now 28/1! 3.00 Siannes star 16/1. 5.00 complex kid 100/1
    Bev 2.10 Champagne clouds 33/1, 2.40 pearl of qatar 12/1, 4.10 zodiakos 16/1, 5.10 villa tora 16/1, 5.45 solider blue 33/1
    Sout 7.30 delirious love 16/1
    Win 4.50 cushuish 100/1
    Chep 5.15 country rose 40/1, rocky park 40/1, 6.50 showmethewaytoaverilo 20/1, 7.20 pink phantom 20/1 sorry now 11/1, 8.20 everlasting sea 12/1

    jarrodholmes68 14/05/18 10:20 PM Reply


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