Members Daily Post: 13/05/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

JUMPS

Ludlow

3.35 –

Baby King    (HcCh)  w1 ES+ H1 13/2  S3A 

Noche De Reyes    (HcCh)  ES+ H3 12/1 S2 S3A  2nd 

 

Plumpton

3.50 – Ladofash    (micro distance) 30 14/1  S2  UP

4.25 – San Pedro De Senam    (micro class) 9/1 UP

 

Southwell

None

 

*

KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 22nd April 2018)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 22nd April 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

*

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 9/95,31p, +16.5)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +101.5)

NOTES 

3.50 Plump – Ladofash – 1 point win – 16/1 (PP/BetfS) 14/1 (gen) UP

On a mediocre day this one looks of some interest at his odds. Without doubt it’s a bit of a punt but it’s his 6th hurdle run of his life and his easiest assignment by far…given he drops into a weak (very weak, where everything has plenty of questions to my eyes) class 5 handicap, his previous hurdle runs having been in juveniles/c4s/c2s. He also runs on decent ground over 16f for the first time which could make some difference – his best hurdle run to date was on good ground, and he appears to have been stuck in the mud a few times since. Trainer/jockey have some decent stats together, 25% sr in all handicaps, 3/8,5p here in handicap hurdles. I suspect they may revert to more aggressive tactics. Maybe the fact Tom isn’t on is some indication as to his chance but I’m guessing to a point there and 14s allows the chance for me. At least the horse is fit and the trainer is in form also. There’s a strong chance this one is just very moderate and Gordon hasn’t quite found the key yet, or he needs to come down a few more pounds. But I thought if he was going to show anything as a hurdler, these could be the conditions in which he does. I wouldn’t be surprised if he won this fairly well, and equally if he is scrubbed along 3 from home and finds little. He could just be totally out of form and I’m making excuses for runs where there aren’t any. 14s was just big enough to lure me in and throw a dart, esp given the level of opposition. It may hit the bulls-eye or not even reach the board. The market may well guide here and I’d at least want his price to remain steady, and ideally come into around 8s, as that may be some indication that better is expected today. 

*

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide) 

2.25 South – Phoebus Lescribaa 

R Hobson (33/1< guide) 

5.35 South – Extra Bald 

Jonjo Handicap Debut 

2.25 South- State The Obvious (10/1< best, 16/1<) 

A Dunn (25/1< guide) 

4.55 Plump – Hill Fort 

Irish Angles

3.25 Kill – Hickeys Rock (any odds, 12/1< best ) 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

I fly back from Dublin today and it hasn’t been the best of holidays. I can’t remember being this ill but thankfully I appear to be on the mend, just in time!  A horrid two days but that’s life. At least I got to see Wonderwall + Don’t Look Back In Anger (and a few other classics) performed live, before I deteriorated, so I can tick that of the list. My thanks to Mike for emailing me the Section 1 qualifiers, I’m not sure there would have been a post Friday or Sat had he not done so, as I was in no fit state to go through the cards and only just managed to copy/paste and add all the ratings pointers/prices/S symbols. So, for any flat S6 backers, we owe him a drink for Sam Missile!

I do need to update the welcome info which I will do early next week, especially for the Flat. As previously discussed I hope/expect Flat S6 to be the jewel in the crown on the systematic front, and we saw with Sam Missile what that approach can do. Nearly 50/1 on the machine as well I believe. A few more like him would be welcome! That should be a 50+ points minimum angle this flat season and hopefully it can climb past 80 points+. The logic is sound, and the flat stats in general are finding winners/horses running well, so time will tell. 

Jumps…well you may have noticed the lack of Geegeez Speed ratings (G1/G3) – they take the summer off over sticks sadly, and will return in September time I think. Jumps S5 (inform ratings, I1/I3, 10/1+) has fired in a few winners recently and it will be interesting how they go over the summer months. They had a torrid winter and I wonder if they just perform better on decent summer ground, which is generally consistent over a period of time, and whether more races are truly run. Given they are speed ratings there could be some logic there. In general the jumps stats had a  naff time of it over the winter and I’m not sure why- it could be down to the strange winter we had and the general lack of consistency in going, the many missed meetings and more importantly the impact of the weather on training regimes. Only my Festival tipping rescued the jumps season really, which I shouldn’t moan about, but I’ll be expecting better next winter jumps season from what I think of as ‘the core’. S2/S2A has at least ticked over for the big priced hunters, and those of you who can withstand the odd very long losing run. 

York – I will pull together some stats for their meeting next week. Last year’s pointers did well from memory, if I’m thinking of the right meeting, especially OMeara. I’ll dig those out and see if there are any others of interest. 

*

Enjoy your Sunday. Mine is looking brighter than it was this time yesterday. Although it will soon be dark again if the Reds somehow lose at home to Brighton! Maybe Rafa will dig us out of a hole if that’s the case 🙂  I should be more positive. 4-1. 

 

*

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

16 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Well some decent efforts among that lot yesterday. Hope many of you noted the halving of odds on 7 of the runners.

    Todays list is 14 long. This be be my last post for a few days. Do with them as you please.

    Lud 3.35 Altipix 16/1
    Leop 3.10 Alghabrah 18/1, 3.40 Theobold 20/1, 4.15 Geological 20/1/Zorion 10/1, 4.45 mawaany 11/2
    Kill 2.55 Ali’s quiet 33/1, 3.25 Templemore Dream 16/1, 4.30 Hand of the king 16/1
    Plum 4.55 charming lad 40/1
    South 2.25 Presenting berkley 16/1,4.35 Spader 14/1, 5.05 The lion man 33/1, 5.35 Balleticon 12/1

    jarrodholmes68 13/05/18 12:29 AM Reply


    • Thanks for sharing really appreciate it mate

      christopher jones 13/05/18 4:21 PM Reply


    • A nice profit again today Jarrod, thanks a lot. I make that two winners at around 10/1, with places at 16/1 and 18/1. Still four left to run too.

      neilmck 13/05/18 4:46 PM Reply


    • The flame was on the list but did not mention… Ouch!

      jarrodholmes68 13/05/18 5:38 PM Reply


    • Seconded, cheers for putting your picks up here Jarrod! I only did your UK picks as I don’t like that many bets per day, but had a nice 12/1 winner, 33/1 place and another 12/1 place that was very close to going in. Very decent profit from your pick so the last few days 🙂

      James P 13/05/18 8:19 PM Reply


      • I’m going to try and go through the card on the all weather tomorrow at Wolverhampton… The all weather will be my attempt using this. All will be up with prices pre 1am I hope!
        Got some very nice priced runners!

        jarrodholmes68 13/05/18 9:32 PM Reply


  • a few quid back in the bank after Ripp Orf (got 28’s b365) yesterday so i’ll have another go today, Jonjo has a couple at Ludlow that look interesting.
    Ludlow
    3-05. Royal Escape 13-2 ew making handicap debut
    3-35. Festive Affair 13-2 ew dual c&d winner looks to be on a fair mark, also half stakes on Pearls Legend 16-1 another c&d winner.
    4-10. Peruvian Blue 15-2 ew won this last year and should go well again
    Southwell
    5-05. Houndscourt 11-1 ew (4 places) again a c&d winner 5lb higher than last win but looks to hold every chance.
    all prices with b365 at 7-00 am

    martin whittle 13/05/18 7:07 AM Reply


  • Had a look at the French 2,000 Guineas and US Navy Flag is 10/1 in a place this morning. Don’t think I can ignore a double group 1 O’Brien runner at that price. Breeding suggests he’ll get the mile and the ground is fine. Racing Post has him 8lb clear on ratings and the Topspeed figure for the Dewhurst last Autumn was impressive. Poor efforts in the Last couple of starts are the reason for the price, but his return at Leopardstown was in bog which wouldn’t have suited.

    Steve Plant 13/05/18 8:35 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh
    Off to York Wednesday any chance of one of your through the card specials.
    cheers Steve M

    Steve M 13/05/18 9:01 AM Reply


    • I’m sure I can give it a go! 🙂

      Josh 13/05/18 10:55 AM Reply


      • Thanks Josh much appreciated the boys will be pleased

        stephen 14/05/18 5:28 PM Reply


  • Plumpton 2.10 Venetian Proposal 1 point win 12/1
    Romanor 1 point win 5/1

    VP representing Zoe Davidson is no world beater but shaped promisingly on her 2nd start over hurdles and with a return of cheek pieces (1st time in a hurdle race) can hopefully garner further improvement over the same course and distance as that last race.
    What brought me to look at this one is Paige Fuller’s record of 3 wins from 5 rides for the in form Zoe D. Only 7 runners or it would have been an ew suggestion.

    Romanor seems to be improving and the better ground should see him in a better light, a big danger and worth a point at 5/1

    The favourite keeps finding 1 too good and looks worth taking on at around 6/5.
    Crushed was beaten 73 lengths on his only hurdle run in a class 4 as 15/8 fav. He is best watched for now.

    I’ll update my p/l record for tips here when i get to my computer but i think its like 8 losers since the start of April.

    Chris Mcilfatrick 13/05/18 10:46 AM Reply


  • Ever So Much Southwell 17:05 1pt e/w-Price taken 13/2 4 places-I’ve taken the slightly conservative route given no less than 8 bookies are paying 4 places. He is extremely well treated on old form and won a class 4 LTO. Only up 5lbs for the win and the form has been franked with the 2nd and 3rd both winning NTO. Considering before that win off 85 days rest he had never won off more than 33 days I suspect there is a high chance he will improve for the run. He is 2/3 at the track and the good ground will suit and won’t mind if its still good/soft. The main concern is whether he stays the 3m however he was doing his best work at the finish and there is every chance he will have no problem with it going on breeding.
    Noche De Reyes Ludlow 15:35 1pt e/w-Price taken 10/1 before Baby King came out-Looks a solid enough pick with a record of 3/6, 5p in chases over course and distance. He has his ground and is effectively down to below his last winning mark when you take into account the claimers 7lb. Is very much a spring/summer horse these days but has had the advantage of a run where as half the field are having their first run off a break. The favourite seems tricky particularly what he did LTO and I am not sure an ideal mount for a 7lb claimer. Trainer has a good record here.

    Nick Mazur 13/05/18 10:56 AM Reply


    • 2nd and 4th sums up how it is going at the minute Nick but a winner or two is surely imminent

      Chris Sengelow 13/05/18 6:57 PM Reply


  • COLINS BETS

    Dawn patrol this morning arrived home at 6.30 am only one bet

    5.05 Southwell Strawberry Spirit

    colin leafe 13/05/18 11:43 AM Reply


  • SATURDAY SUMMER JUMPERS :
    2.20 Hexham – Stormy Milan = u/p at 4/1
    3.10 Haydock – Forth Bridge = u/p at 20/1
    4.05 Hexham – Full Shift = u/p at 25/1
    4.05 Hexham – Quest For Life = WON at 3.79
    4.40 Hexham – Fly Home Harry = u/p at 16/1
    4.40 Hexham – The Doorman = u/p at 28/1
    5.25 Haydock – Midnight Shot = u/p at 7/1
    6.30 Warwick – Apple Of Our Eye = u/p at 14/1
    6.30 Warwick – Burrows Lane = fell at 6/1
    7.00 Warwick – Treackle Tart = 2nd at 7/1
    7.30 Warwick – Vivas = u/p at 6/1

    Could be a long hard summer at this rate!

    SUNDAY :
    2.30 Ludlow – Pickamix
    4.05 Southwell – Flemenstrix
    5.05 Southwell – Ever So Much

    traf69 13/05/18 12:56 PM Reply


Post A Reply