Members Daily Post: 11/05/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Ascot

5.25 – Sam Missile (micro class) I1 12/1 S6 WON 12/1>25/1 44.48 BFSP 

7.40 –

Dreamfield (micro age) 7/4 WON 7/4>10/11 

Volatile (micro class) I1  40/1 S6 UP

 

Chester

1.50 –

Sound Advice      (micro’s dist , class) 10/1 UP

War Department   (micro’s dist , class) 40/1 UP

3.35 – Silver Concorde    (micro class) 16/1 UP

5.15 –

Mix Boy   (micro class) 25/1 UP

Mirsaale  (micro class) w1 H3 I3 18/1 3rd 

Eye of the Storm   (micro class) G3 I3  10/1 UP

 

Notts

5.10 – Amber Spark      (1st 2yo) 8/1 UP

6.45 – Himself      (micro TJC) w1 9/1 UP

7.20 – See The Sea    (micro TJC) w2 w1 3/1 UP

 

Ripon

6.55 –

Penny Pot Lane   (micro dist) 14/1 UP

Mujassim  (micro dist) w2 14/1 3rd 

Magical Effect   (micro class) I3 5/1 UP

7.30 –

Appointed     (micro TJC) I3 8/1 UP

Kharbetation    (micro dist, runs, LTO) G1  12/1 S6 UP

8.00 –

Dew Pond    ( micro TJC, class, dist) 16/1 UP

Uptown Funk     (micro TJC) G3 I1  4/1 S2  2nd 

Stormin Tom     (micro class) I3 12/1 3rd 

 

Lingfield

1.40 – Flying North     (all Hc’s) G3 I3  6/1 WON 6/1>7/2 

 

JUMPS

M.Rasen

2.40 – Mac Cennetig   ( HcH) (wind op) 20/1 S2A UP

3.15 – Souriyan   (micro age) I3  10/1 S2 S5 WON 10/1>9/1 11.28 BFSP 

4.20 – Lady of the Rea  (HcH) 25/1 S2A UP

 

*

KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 22nd April 2018)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 22nd April 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

*

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 9/94,31p, +17.5)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +101.5)

None today, I just haven’t looked through today, not a case of looking and dismissing everything 🙂 

Yesterday’s two didn’t run that well, certainly not Tom George’s mare. The Johnston horse ran ok…they clearly think he has to be held up with some cover as Franny could have dictated that for me and wound it up. He got a good position but it turned into a bit of a sprint and he took too long to pick up, I think he had enough room. One of those. He may just prefer AW all together but not one to lose faith with in a strongly run race over 10f. There were at least three winners to cheer on the ‘through the card’ notes. 

(oh and my thanks to Mike who has sent me the qualifiers for today, this morning may have been a struggle without his help) 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

Irish Angles (different from Irish Raiders)

5.35 Kilb – Cairnhill (25/1<) UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

CHESTER MAY MEETING 2018 

Report HERE>>>

 

Day 3 (qualifiers from report above, starting points) 

1.50 – South Seas / Rene Mathis (12/1<)/ Penwortham (12/1<) 

2.25 – Forest Ranger (12/1<) / Gabrial (12/1< ) 

3.00- Dark Red / Pivoine / Speed Company  (stall)/ Gulf of Poets (stall) 

4.05 – Kachy 

4.40 – Gabrials King (12/1<) 

5.15 – Night of Glory / Suegio (12/1<) / Angel Gabrial (12/1<) 

*

That’s all for today, GL with any bets.

*

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

29 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • haven’t really bothered with first 2 days at Chester but 3 i have backed before run today and i think they all have good ew chances even though all is not ideal for any of them.
    1-50.Muntadab 9-1 1/2 pt ew
    3-00. Titi Makfi 8-1 1/2 pt ew
    3-35. Watersmeet 10-1 1/2 pt ew
    1/4 pt ew trixie

    martin whittle 11/05/18 7:16 AM Reply


  • just noticed Mirsaale is in the 5-15 who i put up when he won @12-1 lto still looks well handicapped and should go well again 16-1 1/2 pt ew

    martin whittle 11/05/18 7:23 AM Reply


    • at least Mirsaale drifting to 33’s got most of my money back

      martin whittle 12/05/18 8:03 AM Reply


  • 1:50 Chest. Sound Advice ew 10/1 PP. Four C/D wins including this race last year off same mark. 4/9 wins on the flat have also come in May, has good draw and according to AOTF this is the seasonal target again.

    Chris R.

    broadsword 11/05/18 7:52 AM Reply


  • Copy of my post from yesterday and prices as of 10 hours ago although both those have now gone:
    Evergate Lingfield Friday 15:25 1.5pt win Price taken 8/1
    Raucous Ascot Friday 19:40 1pt e/w Price taken 11/1

    One more to add:
    Bold Reason Ascot 20:10 1pt e/w

    Nick Mazur 11/05/18 8:38 AM Reply


    • Dragons Tail went well yesterday but likely came up against a well handicapped horse there.

      martin colwell 11/05/18 10:27 AM Reply


      • The small amount of extra exertion before the race when he got loose briefly was probably the difference in the end given it was only a neck in it. Should have had 2 doubles this week given Doll was a likely winner when falling and West was given a silly ride but that’s racing for you and I know the luck will change. Just have to take satisfaction that I am doing the right thing.

        Nick Mazur 11/05/18 11:25 AM Reply


        • Thought Evergate had it, was surprised it lost the photo.

          Small margins at the minute but all part of the fun

          Chris Sengelow 11/05/18 4:05 PM Reply


  • THURSDAY EARLY SEASON FLAT MAIDENS :
    N/A

    4/26 (15.38% SR) for a loss of 11.6pts at BFSP (-424.6% ROI) so far this season. V disappointing.

    FRIDAY :
    2.15 Lingfield – Duchess Of Berry
    2.15 Lingfield – Hameem
    6.35 Ascot – Returning Glory
    6.35 Ascot – Stream Of Stars
    8.35 Ripon – Bowler Hat

    traf69 11/05/18 9:18 AM Reply


  • THURSDAY SUMMER JUMPERS :
    2.00 Huntingdon – Way Out West 3rd at 8/1 (and probably should have won : strange ride)
    3.10 Huntingdon – Midnight Gem u/p at 11/2
    5.20 Wincanton – Leoro u/p at 4/1

    FRIDAY :
    1.30 Market Rasen – Ilewin Geez
    2.05 Market Rasen – Pickamix
    3.15 Market Rasen – Lex Talionis
    3.15 Market Rasen – Our Kaempfer
    3.45 Market Rasen – Bentons Lad

    traf69 11/05/18 9:25 AM Reply


  • Good day yesterday, so hopefully keep that going today with a few:

    13:50 Chester – South Seas (12/1 gen) 1pt EW

    14:25 Chester – War Decree (6/1 gen) 1pt WIN
    14:25 Chester – Gabrial (33/1 gen) 0.5pt EW

    15:00 Chester – Not So Sleepy (10/1 gen) 1pt EW
    15:00 Chester – Pivoine (13/2 gen) 1pt EW

    15:55 Lingfield – Nicklaus (3/1 in places) 1pt WIN

    16:40 Chester – Jabbaar (5/1 gen) 1pt WIN

    That’s all from me today, good luck with your bets.

    Chris M 11/05/18 9:33 AM Reply


  • Managed a to get a coup!e of hours free last night so I thought I would have a look.
    My Friday fancies

    Chester 1:50
    Arcanda 14/1 (took 10/1 last night) e/w
    South Seas 12/1 E/w

    Chester 3:00 Titi Makfi 13/2 ( took 8/1 last night )

    Chester 4:05 kachy 11/10 ( took 11/8 last night )

    Ripon 7:30 Kharbetation 12/1 e/w

    not tips Just putting my fancies out there.
    Good luck today everyone.

    Warren bottomley 11/05/18 9:44 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Chester
    1.50 Baraweez
    4.40 Rainbow Rebel
    4.40 Corton Lad
    Lingfield
    3.25 Jumira Bridge
    Ripon
    7.30 Mutamaded

    Much needed winners yesterday after the barren spell

    colin leafe 11/05/18 10:16 AM Reply


    • That’s betting for you Colin ive been following you in at £20 per bet since you started posting never in doubt that the winners would appear again soon its just a case of discipline

      christopher jones 11/05/18 10:47 AM Reply


    • Nice start to the day (even if I had a bigger stake on the 2nd and 3rd) The nice thing about systems is they get to ignore all sort of common logic like picking a hold up horse at Chester given how rarely they win from that position.

      Nick Mazur 11/05/18 2:14 PM Reply


    • I’ve been staring at that 1.50 result for ages thinking the name was familiar. Twigged in the end, I put the bets on and didn’t note them down.

      Colin, your systems are motoring again, thanks for posting!

      Chris Murrell 11/05/18 2:56 PM Reply


  • Another one
    Pat Molloy just text me whoever he is
    8.10 Ascot Jellaby Maximum Bet fill your boots!
    Another Fav in a 17 runner HC these cowboys are unbelievable!!!
    Not heard from the last one Byron Hubbard after his wonderful info from A O’BRIEN’S lost and Aiden has had a couple of winners but Byron was not privy to this info wonder why?

    colin leafe 11/05/18 10:48 AM Reply


    • Cowboys = Horsemen that make an honest living rounding up and moving livestock. Usually native to North and South America.

      Tipsters = Confidence tricksters that exploit the punters needs for easy winners. Usually natives of the British Isles and Ireland.

      The British appear to forget that all these ‘cowboys’ from rogue plumbers to tipsters are their own countrymen, not foreigners and certainly not riding cutting horses.

      Tim 11/05/18 1:56 PM Reply


  • Tip – only one today, my old favourite Duke of Firenze, 4.05 CHE for 2 points at 8/1. He can fly and can go well from this draw and leave them dead hopefully.

    martin colwell 11/05/18 11:47 AM Reply


  • Hi folks,
    quiet day for me …still got a sore head from yesterday. Had a great day at Chester.
    Che 3.35 who dares wins
    5.15 dominating
    Asc 5.25 sam missile
    Kill 6.40 love and wishes

    Good luck

    jarrodholmes68 11/05/18 12:15 PM Reply


    • Sams Missile a lovely winner at 25/1 nice one! Also was a stats qualifier i believe. Thanks for putting that up its turned my Chester shocker right around!

      James P 11/05/18 5:33 PM Reply


  • Anyone ever followed Andy Holding as a system and if so how does he fair? Heard mixed reports and also that his prices crash quickly

    Chris Sengelow 11/05/18 12:45 PM Reply


  • Sir Maximilian in the 4.05 at Chester – Ran creditably in a 5F race at the track yesterday. Turned out again today from stall 1 and twice C&D winner and way below its last winning mark. Is 9 years old so maybe on the wane but i think it has a decent chance.

    james p 11/05/18 1:17 PM Reply


    • Should of said was badly drawn yesterday, stall 1 today i think is the key

      James P 11/05/18 1:18 PM Reply


  • Sod it…..i will put Wilson in the mix if you can get 66/1+
    Cumani is in dire form 10r 0w 4p in 30 days. But with runners in this class and distance over the past 5years 29%w 47%p, 2years 33%w 41%p and in the last 12 months its 37%w 37%p. His runners are 2r 0w 2p. Unless this horse lost a leg i will let it carry a penny or two.

    jarrodholmes68 11/05/18 1:26 PM Reply


  • On the assumption there is a snowball’s chance in hell of Josh managing to find time to look at the Victoria Cup trends here is what he put up last year without all the fancy formatting:

    stats/trends/pointers

    10/261, 40p

    TRENDS

    Previous Place

    9/10 top 5 LTO
    6th or worse: 1/114, 12p

    Horse Age

    8/10 aged 4 or 5
    6/7: 2/75,9p
    8+ : 0/22,3p

    Maximum Distance Winners Had RUN Over

    Had run over 10f+ in career: 0/53. 4p

    Maximum Distance Winners Had WON Ove

    Yet to win over 7f min: 0/34,2p

    Odds

    33/1+ : 0/92, 7p

    ***

    OTHER STATS

    Miscellaneous 1

    Headgear

    Headgear worn: 0/47, 5p

    Pos Wgts (ex Clm) –

    Top 2: 0/22, 3p
    Bottom: 0/16,1p

    The ‘Winning’ Characteristics

    H-Win (Career).

    3: 7/57,16p, +52 SP

    H-Win (Class)

    3+ : 0/28, 3p

    Miscellaneous 2

    Distance Move

    Up 1f+ : 1/50,4p

    Highest Class Run

    Run at G1 level: 0/30,3p

    H-Places (Hncp/Non)

    0-1: 0/28,1p

    Jockey Claims

    3lb: 1/31,3p
    5lb: 0/31,3p
    7lb: 0/15,2p

    Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics

    (LR) Hcap/Non

    Non handicap: 1/42,1p

    (LR) Race Class (inc Irish)

    Class 4/5: 0/17,0p

    (LR) No. of Runners

    7 or fewer: 0/28, 1p

    (LR) Track

    Newm (Rowley): 3/32, 8p
    Newb: 2/24,6p
    Kemp: 2/29,5p
    1 win: South/Dundalk/Leic
    Donc: 0/24,4p
    Hayd: 0/18,4p
    Thirsk: 0/19,0p
    Lingfield: 0/26,3p
    Ascot: 0/18,3p
    Ponte: 0/9,0p

    Horses ‘First Ever Run’ Characteristics

    1st Run Distance

    5f: 0/28,5p
    8f+ : 0/23,3p

    1st Run Placing

    Won: 0/48,2p

    ***

    Trainer Yard Location

    Yorkshire: 0/59,7p

    Trainers (of interest)

    No multiple winners in the period.
    1 win: Marnane/C Appleby/J Goldie/G Margarson/D Elsworth/A Jarvis/B Ellison/D Coakley/B Hills/B Meehan
    K Ryan: 0/11,0p
    R Fahey: 0/13,2p

    Nick Mazur 11/05/18 4:48 PM Reply


    • Decent of you Nick…Cheers

      Tony Mc.

      tonymc 11/05/18 5:27 PM Reply


  • Much welcomed 25/1 S6 goes in at ascot. Thanks Josh and Mike!

    Paul Ebrey 11/05/18 5:34 PM Reply


  • Sam missile 25/1 get in.

    Warren J Bottomley 11/05/18 5:34 PM Reply


Post A Reply