Free Daily Post: 11/05/18 (complete)

a quiet day from me…

Nothing from me today.

Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

10 Responses

  1. THURSDAY TOP RATED :
    16:45:00 Huntingdon – Utility (130) refused to race
    17:50:00 Wincanton – Night Of Sin (127) u/p at 10/1, but NO BET
    18:50:00 Wincanton – Gentleman Jon (127) Won at 5.0, but NO BET
    18:50:00 Wincanton – Orbasa (127) 3rd at 5/2, but NO BET
    17:25:00 Worcester – Casterly Rock (120) u/p at 7/1
    15:35:00 Chester – Idaho (119) WON AT 1.74
    20:10:00 Chelmsford – Higher Power (108) 2nd at 10/3

    1/4 and -2.30pts ==> 9/35 (25.71%) for -6.53pts (-18.66%)

    FRIDAY :
    14:05 Market Rasen – Work Du Breteau (132)
    14:25 Chester – Eminent (116)
    19:05 Ascot – Cold Stare (101)
    15:25 Lingfield – Jumira Bridge (97)
    19:30 Ripon – Mutamaded (91)
    17:40 Nottingham – Bon Scotte (87)

  2. A lot better with the trends Thursday with 3 races producing 1st and 2nds whilst both of the other races producing a second and third.

    CHESTER CUP

    12/12 Male (female 0/11)
    12/12 no tongue tie
    12/12 GB/FR/IRE bred
    12/12 85-99 rated (0/20 min rated)
    12/12 2lb+ higher than last win
    12/12 4+ hcap runs
    12/12 not claimer ridden
    11/12 beaten over 3lenghts LTO
    11/12 jockey ridden horse before
    7/12 drawn 1 – 4

    LIKELY WINNERS
    MY REWARD
    MAGIC CIRCLE
    STARGAZER

    Passing all the trends and Ideally drawn in one MY REWARD EW is a course winner who for the last 2 seasons has won on his second appearance.
    The other two both fail on one trend.

    150 Hcap

    12/12 GB/Ire bred
    12/12 No tongue tie
    12/12 not drawn higher than 12
    11/12 4 – 6y old
    12/12 rated 87 – 100
    12/12 top rated or within 11lb lower
    12/12 no grade 1 run
    12/12 Class 1/2 highest class win
    12/12 2+ hcap runs
    12/12 won a hcsp
    11/12 Ran at Chester before
    0/21 Ran right handed LTO

    LIKELY WINNERS
    MUNTADAB
    PENWORTHAM
    SOUND ADVICE

    All failed one with last year’s winner Sound advice failing on the age – my records show only 2 horses aged 8 (Sound advice last year) being one are the oldest in the last 20 years.
    What else put me of was the apart from winning on his career debut he needs a run prior to winning which he has had prior to winning on the May Chester card the last 2 seasons.He is 0/13 with a break between 30-365 days.
    Muntadab would seem to prefer softer ground so an EW chance is taken on PENWORTHAM.
    The yard is in form and with 14 from the last 16 winners having won over the distance PENWORTHAM is one of only two that have.
    The horse is also owned by DR Koukash who likes having winners at the course.

    1. Josh,
      I love this site, as well as Ben Aitkin’s NTF and Irish Racing Trends and I thank you for all your hard and excellent work.
      Can I also thank Robert Bland for the superb extra trends supplied in the past two days.
      Robert, I urge you to keep them coming please, as you can NEVER have too many trends for big races and Handicaps in particular.
      Very Best Wishes.

  3. Top rated in the ITV races are below, let’s try get a good winner today, possibly in the big field 3:35 race.

    13:50 Chester:
    Muntadab -> 188.38 (9/1 gen)
    Above the Rest -> 128.70 (8/1 gen)
    Sound Advice -> 115.05 (8/1 gen)

    14:25 Chester:
    Frankus -> 70.30 (20/1 gen)
    Forest Ranger -> 51.85 (6/1 gen)
    War Decree -> 44.51 (6/1 gen)

    15:00 Chester:
    Titi Makfi -> 102.96 (6/1 gen)
    Dark Red -> 65.99 (9/2 gen)
    Not So Sleepy -> 48.12 (8/1 gen)

    15:35 Chester (some serious bias to low draw in this race):
    Watersmeet -> 576.33 (10/1 gen)
    My Reward -> 552.32 (10/1 gen)
    Grandee -> 332.68 (11/1 gen)

    Odds are as of 10:30 AM. Good luck everyone with their bets.

  4. Morning. I was right to be wary yesterday with only one winner at Chester although a few weren’t too far away. A little more confidence today with the trends and value pointing to several likely contenders.

    150 I’ve picked out Gossiping, Muntadab and Penwortham

    225 Eminent is the stand out horse, but I also like War Decree and will back this with a saver bet on Eminent.

    300 The last few years the winner has come from the top of the market so I am looking at Pivoine, Titi Makfi and Restorer – all ew.

    405 Kachy looks a shoe-in here and I am thinking of Double Up for the forecast.

    440 There is a lot going in favour of Rainbow Rebel. Jaabbar also looks a good option

    515 Assuming that the Chester Cup trends can also apply to the new Plate, I have gone for American Gigolo and Euchan Glen.

    My Value Fancies system has one selection today, Stoney Broke (Ling 140, currently 15/8). Yesterday, Poet’s Prince won at 3/1 (4/1 EP) and Ruby Russet was 2nd at 11/2 (drifted from 7/2 early price).

    Good luck today

    1. Sorry, missed out the all-important selections in the 335 where I have gone for My Reward and Time to Study. I was also interested in Watersmeet, but only put off by it’s turf form.

  5. Hi folks,
    quiet day for me …still got a sore head from yesterday. Had a great day at Chester.
    Che 3.35 who dares wins
    5.15 dominating
    Asc 5.25 sam missile
    Kill 6.40 love and wishes

    Good luck

  6. Some big prices
    5:15 CHESTER Mixboy around 16s yesterday

    19:40 Ascot, Lightning Charlie 12/1
    20.10 Ascot Corazon Espinadoe 14/1
    Controversial Lady 33/1 very Controversial
    fav can win
    3:35 CHESTER Time To Study

  7. Sod it…..i will put Wilson in the mix if you can get 66/1+
    Cumani is in dire form 10r 0w 4p in 30 days. But with runners in this class and distance over the past 5years 29%w 47%p, 2years 33%w 41%p and in the last 12 months its 37%w 37%p. His runners are 2r 0w 2p. Unless this horse lost a leg i will let it carry a penny or two.

  8. I have a very small share in Cold Stare 1905 Ascot, I am expecting a good run with Ryan on board, and David O’M is hitting a few winners now.

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