Members Daily Post: 10/05/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Chester

5.05 – Abareeq (micro class) I1 10/1 S6  UP

 

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JUMPS

Worcester

2.45 – Alf N Dor (hncp c + m class) w1 H3  9/2 2nd 

5.25 – Casterly Rock (all hncps) ES+ H3 I3 7/2 S3A UP

 

Huntingdon

3.45 – 

Doitforjoe (all hncps) w2  16/1 S2A UP

Bandon Roc (hncp h) w1 H1 8/1 UP

4.15 – Le Capricieux (hncp h) 16/1 S2A

4.45- Utility (nov hncps) I3 5/1 UP

 

Wincanton

5.50 – 

Garo De Juilley (hncp h) 14,30 ES+ 10/1 S2 S3A 2nd 

Balibour (hncp h) 12/1 S2 

Secret Door (m1) 14  H3 I3 4/1 UP

6.50 – 

Swincombe Scorchio (all hncps) 14/1 S2 UP

Gentleman Jon (hncp chase) ES+ H3 I3 11/2 S3A WON 11/2>5/1 

Theatrical Star (hncp chase) ES+  I3 7/1 S3A  UP

8.20 – Lizzie Langton (m1) ES 7/2 S3 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 22nd April 2018)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 22nd April 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 9/92,31p, +19.5)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +101.5)

NOTES

5.05 Chester – Abareeq – 1 point win – 9/1 (gen)

6.20 Winc- Overawed – 1 point win – 9/1 (gen)

That will be all for tips. 

Abareeq… this one does look most interesting from Section 1 above, at the prices, to my eyes at least. This is a high class horse on the AW, of C2 ability, and one day he will transfer that to turf and win cosily enough from this mark. He was only just caught on the line two starts back at Chelmsford off 97, running off 85 here on grass. If we ignore 2016 when he was only 3 and probably still developing, all his turf runs last year were in very hot class 2s. I have watched that Epsom run back, where he handled the bend well but not so much the camber, and he cruised through that and was the last off the bridle. Sadly he had a wall of horses in front of him, was switched, hung slightly, looked tricky on that track, and still couldn’t get a gap. He was allowed to coast home hands and heels. It showed he has the ability for me on turf, certainly to travel at C2 pace over 10f. Dropped into a C3 here, and back on decent ground, from a good draw, i’d hope we would see his best turf run to date. There were also some further stats to back up his case… Johnston is 14/53,23p + 14 in 10f Chester handicaps the last 5 years. 7/27,13p when Franny is on. 5/10,6p in class 3 10f Chester handicaps. Johnston is 7/21,7p in 10f handicaps here with horses returning within 10 days from last start, (4/10 with Franny on) 3/5 when that is C3. So, there are some further stats there to back up Johnstons overall handicap stats in Class 3 here for the last 3 years, which is what the horse qualifies against in Section 1. I can’t think he would have relished soft at Ascot the last day,nor the 8f. There is little to no pace on paper in this and I don’t think it will be strongly run- something will have to change style or it will turn into a sprint. The Best horse can make all and maybe SDS will be able to get out and dictate. Franny clearly knows his way around here and should have him in the right spot, maybe they will switch it up and try and make all on him. In any case, I thought there was plenty to like at 9/1.

Overawed… the fav does look strong in this at 2/1 IF backing up that last start – as yet he has never backed up one good run with another so hopefully he isn’t in the mood! This becomes a very open race if that’s the case. This George chaser is unexposed in general, being only her 5th run in a handicap, second in a handicap chase. She returned LTO after 100 odd days off, over 19f. She ran as if probably needing it and/or the trip may stretch her, and there is also a chance she doesn’t want any soft in the going. She returns 18 days later here, should strip fitter, Paddy B takes over, drops in trip, and runs on proper decent ground for the first time in a handicap. (that run over 20f at Worcester was on seasonal debut and ran as if needing it/20f too far… you can make genuine excuses for all runs really) Her maiden run at Ludlow on good ground over 16f suggests she has some ability and I do like when trainers don’t hang around over hurdles when they think their horse wants fences. Her odds/jockey booking LTO suggest not much was expected, so it will be interesting what the market does here. Any drift and I may prepare for the worst. Paddy will be aggressive on here I suspect and at 9/1, given that profile, i’ll take a chance on this one from the Test Zone below. It could be she is just moderate but this run will tell us plenty more.

 

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Hmm, that Newton Abbot race didn’t go to plan! A couple of winners for the Chester notes being the only ‘highlight’ of the day and I only backed one of those for beer money. I won’t dwell on the two tips but I will touch on the winner, Unsafe Conduct, for ‘educational purposes’ (or in other words, as I stare out the window, how did I not mention him as a danger!) At this time of year he has just the sort of profile that should interest us and were he a stats qualifier in Section 1, just the sort of horse I should be tipping.. lightly raced/’could be anything’ still and his first run in a handicap hurdle on decent ground. They had raced him last autumn on decent ground, sent off at all prices in novice races, suggesting he was a longer term project/had maybe not strengthened up as yet/still inexperienced. This year to date, since returning in Jan, he had raced ‘in the slop’ but there was promise in his run at Bangor LTO, given he hit the front two out before falling in a hole. Today he got a tongue tie for the first time, returned to good ground for the first time in a handicap, powerful connections who rarely keep totally useless animals and he dropped into a C5..not withstanding that he’d been racing against winter oppo and was now against the summer horses. They let him carry 12-4 here as he was 2lb above the 0-100 ceiling, but the new rules allow that. The ‘top weight’ (11-12) was OR 96, 4lb below the ceiling, which meant he had to carry 6lb more, 12-4… to do that with this sort of profile suggests the Tizzard’s thought they had plenty up their sleeve- given the other option would be to run him in the next class up, with less weight, and/or get his rating down so he could carry 11-12 in a 0-100 in a couple of runs time. I did actually think all of that pre race, nearer the off, once I saw the money come and thought I’d missed something, so at least i’m improving, sort of! He ended up drifting back out to a decent price. Next time. But that’s the sort of winner which makes plenty of sense when you think about it, and there will be more like that in the coming weeks no doubt- those that have been getting stuck in the mud and as yet may not have had ideal conditions in a handicap. Whether I find any, or highlight them as dangers, we shall see! Those from big yards deserve particular attention. 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

A Honeyball 

3.55 Worc – Everlanes (m1, 10/1< guide, m2 5/1<) UP

Paddy Brennan (14/1< )

6.20 Winc – Overawed UP

6.50 Winc – General Girling (m3/4) UP

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Flat

R Fell 

5.05 Chest – Mulligatawny UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

RESULTS:

Results Update 

Weekly Results Update (last two weeks)

Results Update: Summary below, link in Key for Jumps + Flat Strategies will be updated ASAP

Weekly Results Update: Advised Strategies 23rd April- 6th May

Summary

Weekly TOTAL (advised strategies) (Section 1):

  • JUMPS – S1 (0/1,0p, -1) S2 (1/17,2p, -1) S2A (0/9,0p, -9) S3 (0/3,1p, -3) S3A (4/12,6p, +16.5) S4 (1/5,2p, -1.75) S5 (1/8,p,+5)
  • FLAT 2018: S1 (3/8,2p, +6.25) S2 (3/13,6p, +1.55) S3A (3/18,10p,0) S4 (2/6,3p, +4.25) S5 (2/9,3p, +3.5) S6 (1/16,5p, -9)

TEST ZONE (Jumps angles) : 6/26,9p, +13.2

‘In Form Horses’ (won LTO or two runs ago, backed once if both a W1+W2)

  • Jumps: 1/11,4p, -3.5
  • Flat: 5/23,7p, +5.8

Handicap Debut (jumps+flat): 0/2,1p, -2

S3A Double/Treble rated (jumps+flat): 1/5,3p, +0.5

 

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CHESTER MAY MEETING 2018 

Report HERE>>>

 

Day 2 

‘Qualifiers’ against any of my notes listed in the report above, to be used as starting points…

1.50 – Doctor Sardonicus (also micro if 8/1<) / Reflektor / Powerallied (12/1<) (stall) / Tavener (stall)

2.25 – Finniston Farm (8/1<)

3.00- Dragons Tail / Tadleel

4.05 – Finoah / Swift Justice / Ynys Mon (stall)

4.35 – Berkshire Royal

5.05 – Mulligatawny (stall) / Dark Devil (stall)

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Chester ‘through the card’ 

Doug is off to the races I believe and he asked me to have a flick through. I haven’t had time to record a video sadly. As always, the usual caveats- this is a very brief look and it usually goes one of two ways! But, i have used some of the pointers above, ratings, the geegeez cards, pace/draw etc as usual… (apparently any rain isn’t meant to change the going, so we shall see if the clerk is correct on that or not)

1.50 – Doctor Sardonicus / Power Allied

2.25 – Rastrelli

3.00 – Another Batt / Caffe Macchiato

3.35 – Fav

4.05 – Fav – Ynys Mon

4.35 – Austrian School

5.05 – Abareeq / Dark Devil (change on Mulligatowny maybe)

 

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PLEASE NOTE!!

I am off to Dublin at lunchtime through until Sunday afternoon. As always you won’t see any difference to the core systematic sections (Section 1 + test zone) but bear with me on times, there may be more posted in the mornings, most likely with a sore head!  One day i’ll ‘train’ someone/pay them to complete those bits, so I can take a proper day off or three, but until that point, the trusty lap-top will be with me and for what is probably around the 650th+ day in a row in the members’ club, you’ll get Section 1 + Test Zone as a minimum. 🙂 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

37 Comments

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  • I think Mulligatawny is in the soup with that draw.

    chrisrees 09/05/18 7:53 PM Reply


    • Well the stats, as per the report above, say no. 11 or 12 over last 5 years worth of 10-10.5f handicaps isn’t a forlorn hope… 1m2-1m2.5f / stall no. 11 or 12: 3/11,5p, +15 . He is rock bottom of HRB ratings though, which I never really like, and may suggest he has as many form/profile/ability questions as he does from being out in the car park! We shall see.

      Josh 09/05/18 7:57 PM Reply


      • When he was 4th over 7.5F here a year ago, he was drawn 14! and couldn’t get a clear run.
        It’ll be a bigger price (now 20/1 best) if we leave him unbacked until tomorrow.
        I’m trying to curry favour with our readers!!

        chrisrees 09/05/18 8:23 PM Reply


        • Ha, well the Fell test micro in Section 3 will have the odd biggie fall in with any luck, that makes little sense on paper! if history is repeated mind, time will tell. GL
          Josh

          Josh 09/05/18 8:27 PM Reply


  • As I write French Mix has come home at 15/2 SP/BOG, guaranteeing a minimum of 3.5pts profit with 2 races to come. Chelmsford tomorrow. Only one qualifier and I hesitate to put it up as he is up against Elgin at 2/5. But that’s what my stats say, so I’ll go with it.
    8.40 The Otmoor Poet 5/1
    1pt win

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 09/05/18 8:24 PM Reply


    • another decent day Ken, top work! GL Thursday.
      Josh

      Josh 09/05/18 8:32 PM Reply


      • Cheers Josh. I picked up a couple of winners from your through the card at Chester but not much else today.

        Ken McKenzie 09/05/18 8:37 PM Reply


    • As feared, Elgin takes it with a comfortable run. Too good for this company.

      Ken McKenzie 10/05/18 8:53 PM Reply


  • Way Out West Huntingdon Thursday 14:00 1pt e/w-Price taken 14/1
    Dragons Tail Chester Thursday 15:00 1pt e/w-Price taken 11/1 3p 1/4 and 10/1 4p 1/5 split stakes

    Nick Mazur 09/05/18 10:04 PM Reply


    • I guess I will settle for 2 big priced places although whilst not normally critical of jockeys I am not quite sure about the ride on West there. (would welcome any opinions)

      Nick Mazur 10/05/18 3:25 PM Reply


      • will watch the race later Nick, 2 solid picks and Dragons Tail ran a hell of a race. Well done

        Paul

        PAUL EBREY 10/05/18 3:58 PM Reply


      • Done both Nick…well done…but WOW’s jockey couldn’t make his mind up…I got the feeling he was tracking the wrong Horse/Jockey, then altered it’s position every time it was in a rhythm……By the last fence he tried to look good….which he wasn’t. Bad jockeyship cost him a good chance of winning…so annoying. I’d rather a horse fall than have a jockey call all the wrong shots.

        Tony Mc.

        tonymc 10/05/18 4:32 PM Reply


  • Thanks Josh. Really appreciated!!

    dougandnicky 09/05/18 11:26 PM Reply


    • Well, maybe save any potential thanks until 5.15 or so haha. Do flick through the comments on here and free post later on as there were plenty of Chester winners dotted about yesterday. Hopefully 2 -4 of those can go in! We can hope. Enjoy your day, however well the horses run.

      Josh 10/05/18 8:23 AM Reply


  • As Thursday tends to be my day off i get to have a more in-depth look at the days racing.
    These are my Thursday fancies
    Chester 4:35 Berkshire Royal 9/1
    Wincanton 6:50 General Girling 20/1 e/w
    Wincanton 7 50 Djin Conti 7/2

    It’s not racing but for a bit of fun BULGARIA 25/1 E/W for Eurovision.

    Warren bottomley 10/05/18 3:08 AM Reply


    • I remember reading that the Eurovision winner usually comes from the top three in the betting as the value has been taken by those poor souls who have sat through the heats and the rehearsals. Lay the UK entry, certain to win money.

      martin colwell 10/05/18 10:04 AM Reply


  • Morning all,
    Thanks Josh for going through the Chester card.
    Nice to see Nick homing in on WOW. Two more I’ll put in the mix.
    Swincombe scorchio
    Thoonvola

    GL all

    jarrodholmes68 10/05/18 8:04 AM Reply


    • Yep, WOW for me too. Fingers crossed

      traf69 10/05/18 9:38 AM Reply


    • I’m convinced he has a stone in hand and the handicap rating is ridiculous. Money started to come for him just now too.

      Nick Mazur 10/05/18 9:47 AM Reply


      • Gosh! Are you lumping on then?

        martin colwell 10/05/18 10:05 AM Reply


        • Lumping is for mugs mate although I am sure you know that and I would certainly never advise it. I’ve had a small amount extra before the price went when he drifted to 16s but its a race full on unexposed ones you never want to go silly. Plus just because he beat a horse off level weights who than beat horses in their 130s off level weights (among other horses in the races in the race who weren’t far ahead and now rated 120-130) it doesn’t always translate literally.

          Nick Mazur 10/05/18 10:29 AM Reply


          • Yes we are talking horse racing here. I can see your view and have had a few quid on.

            martin colwell 10/05/18 10:55 AM Reply


  • If you could go through tomorrow’s card, that would be great, Josh.
    I’m hoping to get over.

    traf69 10/05/18 9:15 AM Reply


    • Chester? I’ll be occupied with Guinness I think, off to Dublin in a couple of hours for a long weekend, so unlikely i’m afraid! 🙂 But, we shall see.

      Josh 10/05/18 9:26 AM Reply


      • Safe trip, mate.
        A runthrough isn’t vital, I should have enough info at my disposal to see me right 😉

        traf69 10/05/18 9:36 AM Reply


      • Have a good trip Josh,leave a few pints of the black stuff for us locals

        gearoid180468 10/05/18 10:36 AM Reply


  • Although Paddy is probably heading on to Wincanton for Tom Georges Overawed,General Girling looks a good e/w bet 6.50,up in class but has a good place strike rate.Paddy has had two good tussles with this one with For Carmel.Likes to race prominently which could be an ideal one for Brennan,take it from the front and some might crack

    gearoid180468 10/05/18 9:26 AM Reply


  • WEDNESDAY EARLY SEASON FLAT MAIDENS :
    4.05 Chester – Argentello 3rd at 11/10
    4/26 (15.38% SR) for a loss of 11.6pts at BFSP (-424.6% ROI) so far this season. V disappointing.

    THURSDAY :
    N/A

    traf69 10/05/18 9:34 AM Reply


    • -44.6% not great, but not -424.6% 🙂

      traf69 10/05/18 9:37 AM Reply


  • WEDNESDAY SUMMER JUMPERS :
    5.25 Newton Abbot – Franz Klammer PU att 25/1
    5.45 Fontwell – Royals And Rebels WON at 4.60
    7.45 Fontwell – Zen Master 2nd at 7/1

    THURSDAY :
    2.00 Huntingdon – Way Out West
    3.10 Huntingdon – Midnight Gem
    5.20 Wincanton – Leoro

    traf69 10/05/18 9:37 AM Reply


  • This Chester week is turning out to be busier than I had thought. Quite a few from me today.

    14:25 Chester – Finniston Farm (13/2 gen) 1pt Ew
    14:25 Chester – Rostropovich (7/2 gen) 1pt WIN

    16:35 Chester – Christopher Robin (5/1 Coral/Lads) 1pt WIN
    16:35 Chester – Metatrons Cube (18/1 few bookies) 0.5pt EW
    16:35 Chester – Arthenia (25/1 WH) 0.5pt EW

    17:05 Chester – Fast Dancer (8/1 WH, 7/1 gen) 1pt EW
    17:05 Chester – Indian Cheif (12/1 Coral, 11/1 gen) 1pt EW

    17:50 Wincanton – Garo De Juilley (10/1 gen) 1pt EW

    18:10 Chelmsford – Arbalet (5/1 WH, 9/2 gen) 1pt WIN

    Chris M 10/05/18 9:38 AM Reply


  • Im also off to Dublin tomorrow Josh with the lads to celebrate turning the big 40…

    We’re off to the Curragh on Saturday so if anyone has any thoughts on the card that would be grand. Irish flat racing is not my strong point!

    Tim Scott 10/05/18 9:55 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Chester
    3.00 Mr Top Hat
    4.35 Austrian School
    Wincanton
    Little Miss Poet
    Chelmsford
    6.40 Squats
    6.40 War Glory
    7.40 Poets Prince

    colin leafe 10/05/18 10:39 AM Reply


    • Well done Colin. 3 nice winners for you today. One was a bit short priced for me but I took the other two.

      Ken McKenzie 10/05/18 7:53 PM Reply


      • Thanks Ken much needed winners after the barren spell.
        The 15/8 winner almost cancelled out 2 of the losers and with Richard Johnson on board will always attract money

        colin leafe 10/05/18 8:07 PM Reply


  • 5.25 Worcester – Alcock and brown 5/1 on wining mark
    muliply Worc winner just one run in 2018 with B.Andrews 3lb off

    Pab 10/05/18 1:13 PM Reply


  • Evergate Lingfield Friday 15:25 1.5pt win Price taken 8/1
    Raucous Ascot Friday 19:40 1pt e/w Price taken 11/1

    Nick Mazur 10/05/18 9:36 PM Reply


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