Free Daily Post: 07/05/18 (complete)

Nothing from me today really…plenty of racing but it’s generally moderate fare. 

Below I have repeated the qualifiers from a test system in the members’ club, which looks at Handicap Chasers that Won LTO, plus a few other rules…it has a 30% win and 50% win/place SR, or did at the time of research. These are NOT to be backed systematically, as many are priced too short/no value, but they can be a useful starting point to further research/assessment of price etc, and they highlight plenty of winners…

Handicap Chase System (starting points) (10/1< best ) 

3.15 War – Gustav / Minnella Scamp 

3.30 Kemp – Buster Thomas / Bugsie Malone / Favorito Bucks 

5.35 Ayr – Rainy City 

*

GL with any bets. Josh 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

10 Comments

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  • Just a quick thumbs up for Colin, I have no idea about golf but have started backing Colin’s golf tips recently and was pleased to see a small profit on his latest dabble, its gonna be fun when one wins outright at those prices that’s for sure!

    Chris Albin 07/05/18 11:17 AM Reply


    • Thanks Chris for your support certainly is a great feeling when one goes in and you are watching the event.
      Small profit it was 25% on the tournament,my bank are cutting interest to 1 1/2% on my current account and i still have to put in £1500 per month what do you want!!! Ha Ha only kidding.

      colin leafe 07/05/18 11:48 AM Reply


  • Saturday’s Top Rated :
    6.50 Doncaster – Salateen = WON at 5.80, but NO BET
    7.20 Doncaster – Roussel = WON at 1.43, but NO BET

    2.05 Goodwood – Mori N/R (I hadn’t noted a replacement!)

    5.35 Hexham – Applesandpierres 2nd at 4/6

    3.35 Newmarket – Saxon Warrior WON at 5.00

    3.55 Uttoxeter – Hammersly Lake u/p at 80.64

    3.05 Wetherby – Kings Gift u/p at 18.00

    1/4 and +0.80pts ==> 5/17 (29.41%) for -0.96pts (-5.65%)

    MONDAY :
    15:55:00 Ayr – Clondaw Kaempfer (IRE) NO BET, unless other is a N/R
    17:35:00 Ayr – Lough Derg Jewel (IRE) NO BET, unless other is a N/R

    16:35:00 Bath – Lethal Lunch

    16:50:00 Beverley – Two For Two (IRE)

    16:40:00 Kempton – Max Ward (IRE) NO BET, unless other is a N/R
    16:40:00 Kempton – Vaniteux (FR) NO BET, unless other is a N/R

    14:05:00 Warwick – Simply The Betts (IRE)

    16:20:00 Windsor – First Selection (SPA)

    traf69 07/05/18 11:35 AM Reply


    • Ayr 3.55 & 5.35, you’ve only put up one horse and said no bet unless other is NR. What is the other horse? or am I missing something?

      Ken McKenzie 07/05/18 12:17 PM Reply


      • Ken
        It’s the top rated in each course he has 2 at ayr.

        Mike

        mickeydee 07/05/18 1:05 PM Reply


        • Yes, thanks, Mike.
          it is indeed the clear top-rated per UK meeting.

          Purely based on OR, nothing else.
          Just a trial for now, of course!

          traf69 07/05/18 7:22 PM Reply


  • Quite pleased with how my ratings performed in the big field flat races over the weekend. Top 5 rated picked 3 out of the 4 winners and the top 3 had 2 out of the 4 winners with one being 50/1 SP. Although my own selections from the top 5 may not performed well enough I am happy that the ratings seem to be pointing to the correct runners in the market. On top of the winners there were 2 4th’s and 2 3rd’s to accompany.

    I will look to use the same ratings for the future big field flat races and post them here for your perusal.

    Cheers.

    Chris M 07/05/18 12:14 PM Reply


  • Haven’t had time to look at the 2yo races today. Will post up my thoughts on the Newmarket maiden later. Looked a high class field
    Hugh

    alpha2 07/05/18 1:26 PM Reply


  • Thanks to Sp2a I was so excited about Billesdon Brook that I forgot to take the photos of the paddock today. I thought Konchek was too fat to win, clearly the yard were enormously confident and it was a very impressive win. He must have been working with Harry Angel! The one to take out of the race for me was Fanaar. Lovely animal, but Hamdan does not like them revved up fto and he was carrying plenty of condition. Could be seen at the Dante meeting or perhaps Ascot. Fly The Nest also a good one, Barend Boy probably not a lot more than a maiden and nursery winner although this was a hot race. Coco Cheval will almost certainly be under-rated nto. She’s small like Anna Nerium but looked fit and tough although her coat was still a bit dull.
    I have attached a couple of pictures of Billesdon Brook from her 2yo season. The one at Goodwood under the tree shows her well-made compact power particularly well. In my comments on both races I used the word tough. With the benefit of hindsight, that description together with the clues from her appearance provide a hint toward her ability. Plus the Hannon’s usually send good ones to Goodwood.
    https://imgur.com/a/CIEQjnM
    The points I would take from the picture are the power in her shoulder, the depth not just through her girth but on toward her loin and her good confirmation in buttock and thigh. I judge this by imagining a hollow square, the top line runs horizontally from the point where the tail joins the buttock, the right hand side down toward the gaskin, the left hand side finishing just above the stifle (back leg armpit). The more one can see a perfect square sitting over this space the better.

    alpha2 07/05/18 2:39 PM Reply


  • Alpha2 – I just read that last paragraph out looking out of the window and Mrs SP2A thought I was talking about the chick over the road and save me a right smack!

    Very interesting to read seriously though and then look at the picture. Hannon did say according to one post race analysis in Racing Post that horse would be far better at 3 like progeny. Having watched race properly this morning, was still in football mode yesterday afternoon, it is starting how she picked up just in to the dip rather than waiting for the rising ground and really put the race to bed in 100 yards, very explosive.

    She is bred to get 12 furlongs; looks ideal for 10, but with that kind of power why not a mile?, be interesting to see where they go next.

    The advice about what to look out for very helpful, never stop learning is my motto Thank You

    Ian@SP2A 07/05/18 2:51 PM Reply


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