Members Daily Post: 07/05/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Beverley 

3.40 – 

Nature Boy (4yo+ 5yr,4yo+,+micros TJC/dist/age/class move) ES+ G3 11/2 S3A  WON 6/1 

Warriors Spirit (4yo+ 5yr,4yo+,m dist/age) 20/1 UP

4.15 –

Jacbequick (4yo+ 5yr, 4yo) ES+ H3 I1 G3 7/2  S2 S3A  S4 S5 2nd 

Save The Bees (m dist) I1 18/1 S6 UP

4.50 – Areen Heart (4yo+ 5yr, 4yo+,m TJC/age/90 days) ES+ I1 9/4 S3A  2nd 

 

Windsor

3.45 –

Roar (all hncps 5yr, all) (trainer change) ES+  13/2 S3A UP

Come On Come On (all hncps + m TJC) w1 14,30 H3 9/4 2nd 

 

Bath

2.50 – Amberine (m dist) ES+  14/1 S3A UP

 

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JUMPS

Warwick

3.15 – 

Easy Street (m1/m2) ES  20/1 S2A S3 WON 20/1>16/1, 25.00 BFSP

Masterplan (m2) H3 I1 11/2  UP

5.30 – Walter Oneeightone (hncp h+m1) I3  8/1 UP

 

Kempton

4.05 – North Hill (all hncps) 4/1 UP

4.40 – Red Spinner (hncp c + m1) 18/1 S2A UP

5.15 – Cascaye (m1) 11/1 S2  2nd 

 

Ayr

2.10 – 

Tomahawk Wood (all hncps + hncp h) H1 I3 15/2  S5 UP

Ange De Malberaux (hncp h + m2) 30 H3 I1 9/1 UP

Green Tikkana (hncp h) 30  28/1 4th 20/1 

4.30 – Ascot De Bruyere (hncp h + m2) w1 30 H1 6/1  UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 22nd April 2018)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 22nd April 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 9/88,31p, +23.5)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +101.5)

NOTES

6.00 Beverley – Admiral Rooke – 1 point win – 5/1 (gen)

(I may live to regret this but this one’s from the ‘notebook’ having caught my eye somewhat LTO) 

That will be all for tips today. 

This one caught the eye somewhat at Pontefract LTO and if you watch the replay you’ll see why. He is unexposed and in the ‘could be anything’ category although that applies to plenty in here given it’s a 3YO handicap- I may pay the price for dipping into one of these and at such short odds- but I wanted to back up that visual impression LTO as my hunch says he may bolt up and 5s could be a couple of points too big. LTO, on his first run of the season, he travelled ever so well but was trapped in a pocket on the inside. He was unfancied at 33s but I’m convinced that with luck in running, and given the way he finished, he would have won/gone very close. I thought the jockey could have made more effort to make room/find a gap, but that’s easy to say with a side on TV shot, when in reality there probably wasn’t much room. He sat very still with plenty of horse for longer than ideal to my eye! He somewhat flew home when he got a gap and took a while to pull up after the line. He steps back down in trip here and down in class, from C5 to C6, so is at least doing something different. He is also well drawn to attack. There is a chance this trip is too short but they should be aggressive with him, and I’d be surprised if he wasn’t in there pitching come the end. There were just a few too many points of interest for me to leave him at 5s. That Ponte run suggests he will show himself to be well handicapped at some point this season, hopefully starting today. 

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Off the rest- well nothing else really jumped out at me at the prices from Section 1. Jacbequick ran an interesting race LTO I thought, getting stuck in some traffic and not ridden too aggressively by his inexperienced pilot. I thought he could have been a lot closer to his stablemate who won. 7/2 may be short enough for one who has yet to win over this far, but he should run his race. Were Roar a bigger price (went from 13/2>5s as pondering) I may have been tempted, given that there are plenty of trainer stats to like, on top of those that made him a qualifier above. He does well with ‘trainer change’ horses and is 3/13,5p with all handicappers at the track returning 60+ days. If he wants them fit they generally are. He drops in class and is lightly raced, and is a prominent racer. He looked interesting, but the price was getting skinny to my eye given the fitness question. 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Handicap Chase System (starting points) (10/1< best ) 

3.15 War – Gustav / Minnella Scamp 

3.30 Kemp – Buster Thomas / Bugsie Malone / Favorito Bucks 

5.35 Ayr – Rainy City 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

I will get the results up to speed asap, and I also need to re-write some of the welcome info/record a new video, given most of that is based on the Jumps content, although the general principles apply. Do dive into the ‘important’ welcome info link in the Key above if you have never done so. 

SP2A… 

I have spoken to Ian (who owns/runs SP2A- a tipping race/adviser service that many of you have added to your portfolio based on me thumping that particular drum) about running another 3 month trial, starting at some point in May. He’s confident there is room for a few more members without having any negative impact on price or customer service. 

I do have a ‘waiting list’ email list you can join if you would like to hear about the next special offer (50% off, 3 months, money back guarantee if no profit to advised stakes to SP in that time). You can add your name to that HERE>>>

It’s rare for me to mention another service within my own members club but they are different to what I do and I know many of you enjoy the twin approach. Some of you may just prefer them or vice versa! 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

29 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Evening Josh

    Going to Windsor tomorrow, any chance a quick run through of the card tomorrow?

    Cheers

    Jim

    Jim 06/05/18 8:19 PM Reply


    • HI Jim, sorry I haven’t had time to look, I was out all day/evening yesterday and have run out of time this morning! GL

      Josh 07/05/18 11:16 AM Reply


  • Well what a day that was. 100/1 ew on Billesdon Brook. My heart has just stopped racing! Fantastic run and great to see a large consortium win a Classic. You never know Josh you might up there some day!

    A quick wrap up on my AW racing this week.
    Staked 32pts, Profit 23.5pts, ROI 73.44% or £117.50 to £5 stakes.

    and for completeness, my last week up to 27 March when I took a break:
    Staked 8pts, Profit -8pts, ROI -100%

    Overall Total from 12 Dec to date:
    Staked 839pts, Profit 103.85pts, ROI 12.38% or £519.27 to £5 stakes.

    So it’s not all bad news 🙂

    Next AW meeting is Wednesday at Wolves.

    Ken McKenzie 06/05/18 9:51 PM Reply


  • Went down to ‘Alifax earlier to watch on tv Pool stuff chelski but not to be. However, I had to pass a bookies on the way @ 15.19pm with a spare tenner. The taxi driver has exceeded the ‘above and beyond’ by getting me in my home despite the world war antics deployed by the cat.
    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 06/05/18 11:00 PM Reply


  • bit of a minefield out there today with quite a lot of low grade dross around but one that did peak my interest in the 4-30 Ayr is old boy Native Optimist 33-1 back down in a class 4 ,goes on good/good-soft, has won of this mark in the past and has a good 3lb claimer on board,2nd in a class 2 over near identical distance back in December, nothing else in the race is a real stand out so the 33-1 looks good ew value.

    martin whittle 07/05/18 8:26 AM Reply


  • Well done to anybody who backed Billesdon Brook. I have to say the only place i saw it selected was from the service who talk Billy Sollocks( i think that was what chubnut said or something similar). It was a mention so i had reduced stakes as advised by the best service out there. 100/1+ just shows how good those boys are. Remember though they talk Sollocks so dont listen to an old fool like me.

    Roddo 07/05/18 8:28 AM Reply


    • You do like poking the hive Roddo haha. In fairness, their approach to ‘mentions’ wasn’t up to scratch before Xmas and I made my thoughts clear on that… that winner before would have been buried in a write up at bottom along with a few others, and I’d have probably missed it! But, putting a staking amount next to it (1/4 point) has focussed minds I think and they have been pretty good at pulling out which ones to ‘mention’ from their analysis process, and clearly highlighting them, and now keeping results, it’s all about informed choices. And their mentions could in effect be normal tips! 🙂 (which now they have a 1/4 point stake next to them I suspect many a member treats them as, whereas before I suspect many left the various horses ‘mentioned’ in write ups, but no officially tipped) Much like these pages on here when the members club first started…a bit of a mess, and the clear 4 part structure took me longer to nail down than it should have! Everything can always be better, but they are bloody good at ‘tipping’, no doubt about that, a nice way to bounce back after only their 3rd losing month out of the last 16 , which they were due.
      Now, stop with the mischief! 🙂
      Josh

      Josh 07/05/18 9:02 AM Reply


      • Looks like I have to thank you twice 1 for introducing me to them 2 for putting them right on how they report the mentions

        davemox 07/05/18 10:16 AM Reply


      • Josh, I trust your opinion about them and have no doubt they would be a sound addition to any portfolio but their website is pretty chaotic and it seems like they have a shed load of tipsters. How exactly can you back them if you just want 2-3 selections every day or is that not possible? Thanks

        Chris Sengelow 07/05/18 10:35 AM Reply


        • Yep I think he is working on website upgrades etc…. you don’t have the choice of what to back, that’s what they do..you get an email each day with the tips, average of 3 or so a day, outside of Saturday’s when there is Elite service also, + what they call their ‘mention’ horses… what Ian has created over 7 years (20% ROI to SP in that time I believe) is very unique – it is a team of tipping experts that he perms the tips from, and tips himself, that all have specialisms, and are what I call ‘tagged in and out’ of the hot seat a) depending on specialism and b) whether they are ‘in form’ – that allows them to maintain the consistency, over a long period. Most tipping services are just one man or woman, who naturally hit their form slumps and that’s when many leave etc. The whole point of the 3 month trial deal we did/will do again, is so you can get stuck in and see if it’s for you, which it may not be. Around 75% stayed after the first one, Oct-Dec, 60% the second one, mid Jan-Mid April, which suggests they are doing something right.

          I agree about results etc, it would be good to just to one simple page with a set of figures on for advised tips sent to members, P/L / ROI, to advised stakes, advised prices, SP, BFSP, and a 1 point win, 1 point EW comparison. That all exists somewhere but could be clearer! They do record everything through Racing Index but extrapolating can be a nightmare also.
          Josh

          Josh 07/05/18 10:49 AM Reply


      • Sorry Roddo, maybe I am not getting it, I pay Ian/SP2a to send me two emails, daily tips & Elite tips, I read his email from start to finish, I then decide what I back & how many points I put on. I read his advice on tips & mentions. I personally back 1 point EW on tips & 1 or 0.5 point EW on mentions depending on odds. I don’t understand the criticism of a service than sends a short email first thing in the morning, if members don’t read it to the end, then Ian can have no control of that. If time doesn’t allow reading the email in full then have a no bet day. My frustration is having to read Ian’ emails apologising to members who have complained! I choose to not look at or use his website. For the record, I am grateful to Josh for introducing the SP2a service to me last October & the 303 points I am up in seven months.

        lately 07/05/18 11:53 AM Reply


        • I concur….I also see/have no difficulty in reading the write ups for the particular races chosen and it also bugs me when people carp about losing runs etc, and also when Ian feels obliged to apologize to moaners who haven’t read the game play or
          strategy of his team. personally, i’d nob them off and replace from others who are waiting. To be honest i don’t keep detailed records…..I just check my funds which are in a very healthy position….
          As our own Josh says….It’s a long term profit aim but once at ease, enjoy the beauty and challenge of the race in question. BOL.

          Tony Mc.

          tonymc 07/05/18 12:17 PM Reply


    • yep same firm who put the 50-1 2nd in mentions in 2000 guineas too.

      PAUL EBREY 07/05/18 9:33 AM Reply


    • me,me,me i mentioned it , am i a Billy Sollocks as well 🙂

      martin whittle 07/05/18 9:56 AM Reply


      • Yes you did Martin. Hats off to you as well. Sorry i missed you out.

        Roddo 07/05/18 11:52 AM Reply


  • Morning folks, another beautiful day!

    Few dark ones to wet the appetite.
    War 1.30 Midnight trouble
    3.15 Jarlath
    3.50 Another crick
    Bath 2.50 Ritas legacy
    4.35 Lethal lunch
    5.45 Jaganory
    Bev 4.50 Two for two
    6.00 Mops tango

    good luck

    jarrodholmes68 07/05/18 9:25 AM Reply


  • SUNDAY SUMMER JUMPERS:
    1.35 Towcester – Scartare : 4th at 9/1

    MONDAY :
    2.05 Warwick – Lady Ingleby
    2.05 Warwick – On Raglan Road
    2.40 Warwick – Hargam
    2.40 Warwick – Joueur Bresilien
    2.55 Kempton – Always On The Ball
    3.15 Warwick – Masterplan
    4.05 Kempton – Fixed Rate

    traf69 07/05/18 9:33 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Thankfully at long last the sun is shining and the ground is drying out fast so we can have some proper flat racing, any way on to the results so far in May
    Minus 21.9 points at Bookmakers SP.
    After the success of the AW since February the results in May so far on all codes of racing show why you need a Bank.
    2.50 Bath Black Truffle
    3.15 Warwick Minella Scamp
    4.15 Beverley X Rated
    6.05 Windsor Firenze Rosa

    colin leafe 07/05/18 10:14 AM Reply


  • A few fancies today here’s hopeing for a few winners
    Imada 4.30 Ayr
    Flight of fantasy 3.10 Windsor
    First selection 4.20 wise
    Detachment 4.15 Beverley
    Buster Thomas 3.30 Kempton

    David Russell 07/05/18 10:30 AM Reply


    • Best of luck David.

      Josh 07/05/18 10:50 AM Reply


  • Hi guys, thought i would do a write up on my main fancy’s today.

    Midnight trouble. Seems like NTDavies MO dropped off slightly over the last few years in this sphere but still maintains a 20% win 45% place with such types. The trainer is in decent enough form at present. At the course NTD is 5runs 2wins 3places for +6. I think there are worse 66/1 shots running today and this one will carry a few pennies.
    Jarlath. Again the MO seems to be waning a little but the 100% strike rate for the trainer in this sphere looks tempting. Also like it when the money comes from this yard….14/1 last night.
    The 3.50 Warwick will be my bet of the day in the shape of Another crick. Widely available at 25/1 . Noel Williams in this sphere is 8runs 2wins 6places with such types.
    for + 14 win +24 place. When you apply this to 5y olds you get a 3runs 2wins 3 places for +19 +25 respective. Young Tom Garner is riding well at the moment although his hurdle form could be better! I’m willing to find out.

    jarrodholmes68 07/05/18 10:36 AM Reply


    • GL Jarrod, well done with the monster Burchell winner a couple of days back and indeed any others you may have had! I’ve struggled to keep up this weekend!
      Josh

      Josh 07/05/18 10:51 AM Reply


  • Tips – we lost 4 points on Saturday and slip to minus 8.5 points for May. Only one today, 5.30 War Bagging Turf, 11/2 BOG x 2 points. On a lower mark over hurdles than over fences and drops in grade, so has things in his favour.

    martin colwell 07/05/18 10:45 AM Reply


  • McCreery/Lee combos today:
    1:40 Naas Mintd
    2:45 Naas So Long Marianne
    5:35 Naas Bumbasina

    All 1pt E/W
    Good luck to all

    Nige C 07/05/18 11:08 AM Reply


  • Maulesden May Beverley 16:15 1pt e/w-Looks like a really solid pick. You look at his handicap flat form and he is 3/6, 4p on good ground, 3/5 over the distance, 2/4, 3p in class 4s, 4/8 on flat tracks, 2/3 with Lee on board and 4/8, 6p in fields of less than 10. He would have needed it last time out. Should be able to sit just off the pace. I think the fav and Save the Bees will take each other on for the lead and hamper each other’s chances and 8/1 looks a solid bet.
    U Name It Ayr 14:10 1.5pt win-Maybe I am wrong but this one was interesting given he returns to good ground for the first time in an eternity, has a really low mark and they put the cheekpieces on for the first time not to mention the booking of Henry Brooke was eye-catching. Given the boom/bust nature of the bet have gone win only will record it as such.

    Nick Mazur 07/05/18 12:19 PM Reply


    • I picked up a few shillings on U Name It. Betfred were doing 5 places at 14s so went ew.

      Ken McKenzie 07/05/18 2:32 PM Reply


  • Busy day for me, quite a few selections.

    4:30 Ayr – Volcanis (5/1 gen) 1pt EW
    5:35 Ayr – Lough Derg Jewel (4/1 gen) 1pt EW (couple paying 3 places)
    2:30 Beverley – Tick Tock Croc (11/1 gen) 1pt EW
    3:05 Beverley – Wrenthorpe (15/2 WH, 7/1 gen) 1pt EW
    2:05 Warwick – City Star (50/1 Bet365, 40/1 gen) 0.5pt EW
    4:55 Windsor – Zamadas (10/1 Bet365, 9/1 gen) 1pt EW

    Don’t have time for write up as I need to be somewhere in the next half hour. Will try to get some reasoning up later

    Chris M 07/05/18 12:31 PM Reply


  • Great day for the ratings so far Josh

    christopher jones 07/05/18 4:11 PM Reply


    • Yep can’t complain! Some more consistent weather and trainers working horses how they wish may be leading to some consistency.

      Flat S3A has started really well and my focus on a section with 5 years stats for handicaps appears to be paying off.

      Jumps S2A really is cementing itself as the big priced jumps strategy although stats pool still small… but they may be north of 80 points for year now. Decent.

      Josh 07/05/18 4:41 PM Reply


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