Members Daily Post: 06/05/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Hamilton

1.30 – 

Loughton (all hncps) 14,30  3/1 UP

Nuns Walk (micro age) H3 I1 11/2 S2 3rd

2.35 – Tor (all hncps) I3 20/1  UP

3.10 –

Restive (all hncps) H1 I1 7/2 S1 UP

Thorntoun Care (all hncps) H3 I3 G1 4/1 S2 S4  3rd

Regal Mirage (m age) I3 4/1  WON 4/1 

3.45- 

Rapid Applause (all hncps) w1 H1 I3 11/4 S1 WON 3/1 

Sfumato (all hncps) I3 14/1 UP

Inexes (m dist) I1 14/1 S6 UP

Mininggold (m dist) 28/1  UP

Danish Duke (m age) G3 14/1  UP

4.55 –

Mustaqbal (m class) w1 H3 8/1  UP

Reinforced (m class) I3 G3 16/1 UP

 

Newmarket 

1.50 – 

Wold Country (all hncps) 14,30 I3 13/2 UP

Celstial Spheres (all hncps) w2 14,30 H3 I3 12/1 UP

Alqamar (all hncps) 14,30  20/1 UP

The Grand Visir (m class) 14,30  8/1 UP

2.55 –

Mr Lupton (m dist) H3 I3 9/2 UP

Eastern Impact (m dist) 9/1  UP

4.10 – Fly The Nest (2YO) 14,30  2/1  2nd 

 

JUMPS

Towcester 

1.35 – Oi Oi (m1)  14/1 S2 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 22nd April 2018)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 22nd April 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 9/87,31p, +24.5)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +101.5)

NOTES

1.35 Towc- Oi Oi – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen) 

That will be all for tips today. 

Jonjo is 5/17,7p with all handicappers at Towcester over 3m and he’ll improve on those stats at some point, hopefully today! I assume this horse needs good ground, hence the break, and I found it interesting enough that they return here with her, having raced here LTO over shorter. This is her second start in a handicap, she steps up in tip (related to plenty who relished 3m+) and is in the ‘could be anything’ category. I can take a chance on fitness at 14s- she may need it or Jonjo will have her spot on. It looks an open/weak enough race to my eye and if she has any ability, one day she’ll show herself to have a bit in hand. 

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Nothing on the flat really lured me in… I don’t really like anything at Hamilton, at the prices, (with my usual dismissive attitude of anything under 6/1). The 3.45 looks a minefield… I would say that is between Rapid Applause and the O’Meara horse that I tipped LTO at Ripon- this good ground could make the difference and he may have needed it. We shall see though, a typical trappy sprint handicap. I couldn’t makeup my mind in the 1.50 Newmarket – Buick gets the choice of the Appleby runners so you’d have to take Wolf Country seriously – but he is 13/2 and not 10/1 like yesterday’s winner. I don’t think Celestial Spheres is without a chance, and nor is the Haggas horse, IF a1 after his break. I am off to the track today and may back the lot, as well as the Fahey ones in the 2.55 although I need to give the card some more time. But I have no strong views on any in section 1 there today, and certainly wouldn’t be confident enough to tip any at the prices. 

GL with any bets 

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A decent return yesterday, 2/4 +17 points added to the pot, and all of a sudden the 2018 ‘Notes’ total is looking a bit healthier and is up around the 28% ROI. On we go. 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

R Fell (any odds, 8/1< best) 

3.45 Ham – Imagine If w2 3rd 16/1 

Jumps 

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide) 

3.50 Tow – Minells Scamp WON 5/2 

4.25 Tow- Ask Dillon 2nd 

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4.Any general messages/updates etc

Nothing to add today.

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

31 Comments

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  • COLINS BETS
    4.55 Hamilton Jacob Black

    Will do a update of results tomorrow

    colin leafe 06/05/18 10:20 AM Reply


  • SATURDAY’S SUMMER JUMPERS :
    5.35 Hexham – Mr Snoozy 3rd at 6/1
    6.05 Hexham -Loch Linnhe WON at 4.76
    6.35 Hexham -Olivers Gold 3rd at 8/1
    8.35 Hexham -Miss Amelia u/p
    3.55 Uttoxeter -Hammersly Lake u/p
    5.40 Uttoxeter -Irish Octave 2nd at 10/1

    SUNDAY :
    1.35 Towcester – Scartare

    traf69 06/05/18 10:36 AM Reply


  • Today’s are selected with more confidence after the winner yesterday!
    13:35 Towcester
    SHELLBEWHATSHELLBE 10/1 gen
    Has already won at this specialist’s track only off a 1lb higher mark. Cooud go well again with the champion jockey booked. Stable seems to be in form.
    ABBEY STREET 10/1 365
    Looks very interesting over 3 miles on Good ground for the first time under rules having been placed twice in points on Good. This lightly-raced 7 year old has ability having finished 2nd of 16 over 2M 3.5f on unsuitable Soft ground in a higher Class race than this at Huntington back in January. Paddy Brennan back in the saddle is a major plus and he looks worth an each way bet at the current 10/1 on offer.
    14:55 Newmarket
    AELOUS 14/1 gen
    I’m prepared to accept that Aeolus is back to near his best and after picking him last time I have to stick with him. After all he was a Group 3 winner back in the day. His win here at Newmarket 18 days ago was one where he always looked, throughout the race like he had a chance. That, like all his previous wins, was at 6 furlongs. If in a similar frame of mind ? He has the draw, the jockey and the distance, in the right class of race, to pull it off, at a big price.
    EASTERN IMPACT 9/1 gen
    Is likely advantaged by his uncomplicated often prominent racing style at this track and he came second at this meeting last year. It looks like this has been a more specific early-season target this time and it is noticed that he has become a well handicapped horse. The powerful Richard Fahey yard have fired in eleven recent winners apparently peaking , and today looks like a good time to be siding with this one.
    15:35 Newmarket
    WILD ILLUSION 8/1 gen
    Happily beat Masar who ran well yesterday, but also only beat Magical by a short head, Laurens has beaten both September and Magical. Wild Illusion beat both Polydream and Magical. Laurens was beaten by Polydream. Basically all these horses are closely matched but at the prices and with the least amount of runs with scope for improvement, stable going well and Jockey Wild Illusion is the best bet of the day for me.
    LAURENS 10/1 gen
    I am hoping Laurens will be fully fit for this given it is her first race since winning the fillies mile here in October. She handles the track well and progressed a lot as a two year old. I am hoping she can step up again and at least run a place in this.

    Good luck with whatever you back today!

    Stewart 06/05/18 10:53 AM Reply


  • From Martin W yesterday…
    for tomorrow.
    ITV racing.
    Nemmarket.
    1-50. UAE Prince 7-1, i did look at Celestial Spheres 12-1 but top stable jockey Buick prefers Wolf Country 7-1 so maybe a small saver ew on that as well.
    2-20. Tisbutadream 10-1 looks a good ew bet if all 8 stay in.
    2-55. looks to be between Mr Lupton 4-1 and Ekhityaar 11-2 but not confident enough in either for a full bet so just a small one on Ekhityaar.
    3-35. Soliloquy looks a solid bet @11-2 and i’m having a couple of small ew’s on Madeline 50-1 and Billesden Brook 80-1.
    Hamilton.
    2-05. no bet
    2-35. Archippos 11-2 main bet , Donnachies Girl 11-1 ew

    Josh 06/05/18 11:11 AM Reply


    • Looks like a good day for Martin too!

      neilmck 06/05/18 4:11 PM Reply


  • Tisbutadream i love that horse.remember him at poor class aw stakes he has very strong pace

    Pab 06/05/18 11:19 AM Reply


  • Hi folks, sorry but no time to list meetings so you’ll have to use the a-z. Nice 66/1 winner and warm oasis just done on the line. No order :-
    economic crisis/ bronze beau
    munfallet/ imagine if
    wolf country/ celestial sphere
    an’ball
    regimented
    billesdon bess
    coreczka
    less of that
    reinforced/ mustaqbal

    good luck

    jarrodholmes68 06/05/18 11:40 AM Reply


  • Another snippet from the Coolmore mole after yesterday – apparently they will not hear of defeat for Happily.

    GL

    Ben

    921389 06/05/18 12:17 PM Reply


  • Gifted Master Newmarket 14:55 1pt e/w-Price taken 14/1-Nothing seems to be sticking but you just have to plough through in this game. Gifted Mister is a Listed/Group 3 horse running in a handicap. This is actually his first taste of handicap company having been one of the more consistent 6f horses. Everything is absolutely tailor-made for him. Outside of soft ground he has won his last 6 races worth 50k or less. He is 4/8, 6p on good/firm and 4/8, 5p at the track and 1/1 on the July course. He is running over his favoured 6f but its a plus he stays further. There isn’t a massive amount of pace here with the other likely front runner drawn on the other side and likely not good enough. Should be able to get out there early and I don’t think they will catch him. Whatever happens given there are one or two unexposed types I would be disappointed if he doesn’t at least hit the frame.

    Nick Mazur 06/05/18 12:39 PM Reply


    • Good write up on GM there Nick, hope he runs good for you

      Chris Albin 06/05/18 1:52 PM Reply


      • I think that pretty much went to script!

        Nick Mazur 06/05/18 3:01 PM Reply


        • Certainly did Nick! I can’t believe SP2A picked the Guineas winner as well!!!! 100.00 on BF superb!!!! what a day

          Chris Albin 06/05/18 3:43 PM Reply


    • Get in there Nick ….. Brilliant pick, you deserved that, got him in a few little doubles in waiting too….

      Chris Albin 06/05/18 3:01 PM Reply


    • Great call Nick, spot on with your analysis. Many thanks.

      Chris R.

      broadsword 06/05/18 3:01 PM Reply


    • Good win Nick and good to see your fortunes changing for the better

      colin leafe 06/05/18 3:09 PM Reply


    • Good call Nick….back in the saddle again lol

      Tony Mc.

      tonymc 06/05/18 4:00 PM Reply


    • cheers Nick got 14’s on BF sportsbook and with Billesdon Brook coming in it’s been my best for a very long time 🙂

      martin whittle 06/05/18 8:08 PM Reply


  • Eastern Impact my place bet

    Pab888 06/05/18 1:43 PM Reply


  • Well done Nick !

    Jim Ashfield 06/05/18 3:08 PM Reply


  • OMG Mickeydee and I just got Billesden Brook at 100/1. I’m literally shaking. Never had one that big before. The neighbours must think I’ve gone mad. Woohoo!!!

    Ken McKenzie 06/05/18 3:48 PM Reply


    • Something similar here! I got it at 125/1 from S*n Bets and had another couple of quid on the exchange at 150. There were bigger prices on the exchange too, I originally tried to get matched at 240 but just missed it.

      Massive thanks to Ian and the team.

      neilmck 06/05/18 3:51 PM Reply


      • got matched at 180 on BF 🙂 plus had it ew with a couple of bookies at 80-1 , i’d already backed it then saw it was in sp2a post and backed it again one very happy chappy.

        martin whittle 06/05/18 4:39 PM Reply


    • I take it you got your tweaks sorted ken….well done lad.

      Tony Mc.

      tonymc 06/05/18 4:03 PM Reply


      • Nothing to do with my system Tony. I’ll stick to the AW 🙂

        Ken McKenzie 06/05/18 4:24 PM Reply


  • Woohoo indeed Ken, absolutely brilliant, had a fiver on too and its in an E/W double with two in the 4:55 at Hamilton, What Wonders Weave and Teomaria. Around £130 going on each now!!

    Chris Albin 06/05/18 3:54 PM Reply


  • Woohoo!!! Sp2a adds a 66/1 winner to the party……Great shout Ian and the lads.

    Tony Mc.

    tonymc 06/05/18 3:58 PM Reply


  • If anyone has some thoughts on the 4:55 @ Hamilton it would be greatly appreciated as I’m looking to back 3 or 4 in the race apart from the 2 that are in the double

    Chris Albin 06/05/18 4:03 PM Reply


    • Colin has tipped the favourite

      neilmck 06/05/18 4:11 PM Reply


    • Natajack e/w

      bogsnorkeler 06/05/18 4:37 PM Reply


  • What a day I’ve had!

    Big thanks to Nick but huge thanks to sp2a.

    Cheers chaps!

    Chris Murrell 06/05/18 5:41 PM Reply


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