Members Daily Post: 05/05/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Goodwood

2.40 – 

Love Dreams (all hncps) w1 H1 I3 8/1 S1 S6  UP

Masham Star (all hncps + micro TJC) I3 8/1  UP

 

Newmarket

1.50 – Oasis Charm (all hncps + m runs) w1 14,30 H3 10/1  WON 10/1>4/1 

 

Doncaster

5.15 – 

Boy In The Bar (all hncps) w2 I1 12/1 S6  UP

Russian Realm (m distance) H1 9/1 S6  UP

 

JUMPS

Uttoxeter

3.55 – Amore Alato (m1) ES+  6/1 S3A  UP

4.30 – 

The Wicket Chicken (hncp h) w2 11/1  UP

Black Sam Bella (m1) (hncp H debut) ES+ I3 8/1  S3A WON 8/1

5.40- Mrs Robin (m1) (trainer change) ES+ I3 5/2 S3A  WON 5/2

 

Hexham

6.35 – 

Oishin (all hncps + m2) ES+  20/1 S2A S3A  UP

Our Kylie (hncp h) I3 11/1 S2 S5  UP

7.05 – Celtic Flames (hncp chase) w2 30 I3 12/1 S2 S5 UP

8.35 – 

Apache Pilot (all hncps) ES+ I1 5/1 S3A  3rd 

Rossamilan (hncp c + m2) (handicap chase debut) ES+  12/1 S2 S3A  UP

Avondhu Pearl (m2) I3  16/1 S2A S5  UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 22nd April 2018)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 22nd April 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 7/83,29p, +7.5)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +101.5)

NOTES

2.40 Goodw – Love Dreams – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen)

4.30 Uttox – Black Sam Bella – 1 point win – 9/1 (gen) 

1.50 Newm – Oasis Charm – 1 point win – 10/1 (gen) 

8.35 Hex – Avondhu Pearl – 1 point win – 18/1 (PP/BV/BetfS) 16/1 (gen) 

ALL Tips complete. (posted above in the order I made the decision)

(also now repeated on free post as I’ve done nothing on there all week and haven’t tipped anything at Uttoxeter… hopefully not a curse!) 

Love Dreams… the first of two flat horses today I have tipped that arrive fit and in form having won LTO and who look like they should give me a run for my money. Love Dreams has to prove he is up to this mark but he is unexposed still as a handicapper and until he’s proved the handicapper has him, I’m happy to give any unexposed/lightly raced horse  a go if the price is right. This one did well in first time blinkers LTO and there could be more to come. That run at Newmarket on seasonal reappearance was good. Drawn in 7 this prominent racer should get out and get a prominent position. It could be a MJ 1-2 the whole way round, with Right Action not far behind. I have read nothing into the jockey bookings given Fanning has never ridden this horse which I find odd and suggests an owners decision, and Mosse is 3/10,6p riding for the trainer, 2/8,4p in handicaps, and he is 3/9,4p at the course from all rides in the last 5 years. I just thought there was a lot to like and especially given plenty in here may need the run and plenty more will need luck in running being held up types/drawn wide. I would hope the two Johnson horses don’t set this up for a closer which would be idiotic. I have had a saver on Masham Star given he is drawn low and races up there… he doesn’t look in as good form as his stablemate and is only 1/19 in turf handicaps, but these two could have it between them. He has the form to figure and is handicapped to do so. 

Black Sam Bella – makes handicap hurdle debut here after a break and steps up in trip. There are reasons to hope that she could now get involved, having run well enough in novice/maiden hurdles, running as if well worth a go over this far. Dan and Harry are 14/33,25p with all runners here in the last 365 days, Dan is 6/16,12p with all handicappers here returning after 60+ days. It’s the type of jumps profile I like to attack although as well have seen my jumps efforts on the notes front since Nov 17 haven’t been the best! The Hobbs horse is a worthy fav and I won’t fall off my seat if she wins, and Lavelle’s is interesting as she could get an easy lead here…just then whether she stays, but worth a go. Those three look most interesting to my eyes. 

Oasis Charm – given the market it may be wise to have a saver on the Varian horse who could be anything but given his price that could be argued as being rather cowardly! 10s has just lured me in here given he is unexposed in handicaps, is fit, in form having won LTO, and there should be more to come. I can’t think he has reached the ceiling of his abilities yet although clearly he could bump into something with more in hand/a touch more class. The trainer is 4/10,7p win the last 14 days, having started the UK turf season in fine form. Buick is riding superbly and rarely has a horse in the wrong position here. I think  the stalls are stand side in all races bar over 12f today, so hopefully he can get out and across/a decent position in the front 3rd- although from 2 that could be tough.  There is also a slight niggle about his attitude as having watched the video LTO his head carriage was a bit awkward and he dived left a tad..but he did respond to Buick’s urging and went past his rival easily enough. He stays further than this I suspect so will hopefully get rolling soon enough. I’d be disappointed if he wasn’t in the frame but just a case if anything is better treated/more unexposed. 10s seemed generous enough given his profile and hopefully plenty in here need the run. 

Avondhu Pearl – was well worth a go at 16s/18s to my eye given she is unexposed under rules, over fences, and in handicaps. She is a point winner on good ground and I can’t think enjoyed the heavy LTO. She travelled and jumped ok to a point. She returns to a decent surface here and takes a drop in class, into a very moderate race. The trainer is 7/22,11p here in C5 handicaps, and his son Sam rides at Uttoxeter earlier in the day I think, before heading up here. Her form ‘story’ makes sense also..she ran well until 3 out over 24f at Muss on handicap hurdle debut. I don’t think she stayed. She then had a break- to avoid the worst of the ground no doubt – returning over 17f in a C4 handicap hurdle, running well. I don’t think she has the pace for that trip and in any case probably needed it. She returned to fences LTO in heavy, running ok to a point. She could be well handicapped over fences when it all clicks and she faces plenty of old boys/moderate/out of form sorts. She may find this big field too much but I’m interested to see her in these conditions. Touch wood she jumps better out of this ground/jumps well generally, and gives me a run for my money. 18s seemed worth a stab and I’d like to see some money come, given her profile. Rossamilan – Russell isn’t prolific with handicap debutants but does have winners and I am more cautious with chase handicap debutants- fitness is an unknown and Russell is only 3/74 in the last 2 years with horses she moves in distance by 20% or more from last run- that put me  off a tad, but given his profile/connections in a C5 here, is maybe worth some change just in case, but my head said no. 

That’s all for today. 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

Irish Raiders (16/1< guide) 

1.40 Uttox – Damut Im Out 3rd 

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Handicap Chase Starting Points (10/1< best) 

5.40 Uttox – Heavenly Promise 

8.35 Hex – Miss Mackie 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

The link to the TTP Flat Report, for those of you who like to use it/flick through. 

READ/DOWNLOAD HERE>>>

Please note that it is still a work in progress with around 7 tracks yet to complete and I’ll tidy it up, add notes to the template to explain my approach, and add page numbers etc etc. I have added a new section this year, for 5 year stats for the ‘general’ handicap stats and ‘3yo+/4yo+) with strict rules for qualifiers (min 10 winners, 25% win SR or 20% win/50% place) in effect helping to create a portfolio of ES+ systems, which have so far, touch wood, started the flat season well. All other stats are for the last 3 years/seasons, and I do research the stats with the idea of a) wanting some stats to have confidence in as micros – such as ES+, but b) knowing they’ll be used as ‘starting points’ and that there will be ratings pointers etc added into the mix.  

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

29 Comments

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  • Crikey! It’s a quiet morning on here this morning!

    Ben

    921389 05/05/18 9:10 AM Reply


  • Abundance of racing today and no better place to start than Newmarket…

    13:50 Newmarket
    TRICORN 9/1 gen
    The favourite looks like being the hottish call and looked reasonable last season and certainly nothing special so far, TRICORN has been tanking along ,so much so that they stepped him into listed company last time and he was promptly beaten out of sight but back down at this level he could be deadly and I am nothing short of amazed that he can be backed freely at around 9/1.
    OASIS CHARM 10/1 gen
    Oasis Charm looked in need of the run last time out at Chelmsford City when having his seasonal reappearance but despite hanging left in the final furlong managed to land the odds against the well fancied and fitness ready to go Maratha. That was a good prep run for the 4 year-old gelding that will take advantage of the age allowance. Charlie Appleby has a good record at this track and his yard is in top form at the moment.

    14:40 Goodwood
    SQUATS 10/1 gen
    Masham Star is probably the best handicapped of these but he hasn’t looked so good since a gelding operation. This is a hot little race but Squats won on similar going over 7f at Newbury last year. The return to action was pretty encouraging at Lingfield. Needs to break quicker but if he can get settled in early Squats can win this with his trademark late effort.
    THE WARRIOR 18/1 hills
    Third in this race last year which makes me think he may do well again, just needs luck in running and at 18/1 represents value in this off a light weight…

    15:05 Wetherby
    WITHERNSEA 10/1 gen
    Loves big field handicaps and i think it was the atrocious conditions that undid him last time at Newmarket that were his undoing, bit of sun on his back and early season will see him now primed to take this in a canter!
    JUST HISS 20/1 gen
    Distance winner who is bottom weight today so is receiving weight all round.Has three career wins so far , two on good going and one on good to soft so,todays underfoot conditions should suit. Last run was in a class 2 under 8st 11lb on good to soft where he finished 7th of 10 keeping on at the finish under todays
    pilot Rachel Richardson who takes off a useful 3lb. Nice to see 20/1 on offer as i can see him being shorter and hopefully all 16 run so its 1/4 odds four places.

    15:55 Uttoxeter
    AMORE ALATO 6/1 gen
    Amore Alato has been running with credit and now dropping to a dangerous handicap mark, improvement expected on better ground.
    HENLANN HARRI 11/1 gen disappearing fast..
    The run here when 4th of 20 last July is the key piece of form here. The horse has 2 furlongs less to run here (which should suit), is on a 2lb lower mark, and has the services of top 3lb claimer James Bowen. This all points to value at 11/1 especially since this horse has had a light campaign unlike many of the others. American is the danger but is inconsistent and short enough at 11/2.

    15:55 Newmarket
    MASAR 9/2 gen
    The win over c&d in the Craven here was impressive to say the least and this horse was always going to appreciate the step up to a mile judged on previous runs. The style of that win suggests Buick will sit in the front rank here and push the button in the final furlong. The colt is by New Approach which is usually a sign of quality and the 9/2 looks a great price given that c&d form.

    That as they say, is that!! Off to do the usual mad rush for bbq food and then sit down and hopefully to celebrate my winnings..Or drown my sorrows.

    Good Luck in whatever you back today!

    Stewart 05/05/18 9:14 AM Reply


  • So here are mine today:
    2:10 U Sizing Cusimano – Tizzard
    2:25 W Little Princess – Harrington
    3:10 C Samasthiti – McCreery/Lee combo
    3:20 U Storm Home – Tizzard
    3:55 U Temple Hills – NTD
    4:30 U Drinks Interval – Tizzard
    4:40 W Fintara – Harrington
    4:40 W Peacock Secret – Hanlon
    4:50 C Dance Emperor – Harrington
    5:05 U Triopas – Tom Lacey
    5:05 U Zanstra – Tizzard
    5:35 G Liva – EJH

    Nigel C 05/05/18 9:24 AM Reply


    • The logic (if any!) behind these are they are the trainers that I’ve followed for about three years, must admit I think I sometimes blind bet sometimes but love Lacey at the mo, Harrington looks to be hitting form, McCreery/Lee I like (can anyone with better knowledge see if there’s a refined way in?). Hanlon doesn’t run many but has some success (Camlann recently). GLIYF.

      Nigel C 05/05/18 9:33 AM Reply


      • I would advise following McCreery for next three weeks in handicaps. His record between week 18 (starts tomorrow according to HRB) and week 20 last 5 years is 60 runs, 13 winners, 20 placed, +103 BFSP, A/E 2.32. Seasonal debutants account for almost all the profit (6 wins from 12, +102 BFSP)

        Francis 05/05/18 9:54 AM Reply


        • Wow! Top info, thanks v much

          Nigel C 05/05/18 10:01 AM Reply


    • All 1pt E/W

      Nigel C 05/05/18 9:36 AM Reply


  • STAT-BASED SUMMER JUMPERS.
    Simply based on a small group of trainers with a decent record over recent years.
    Not all the trainers are profitable every year, but all are profitable over recent time. The winners should more than pay for the losers, but we can often wait a while in between wins!

    Happy to flesh this out later, but pressed for time this morning…

    5.35 Hexham – Mr Snoozy
    6.05 Hexham -Loch Linnhe
    6.35 Hexham -Olivers Gold
    8.35 Hexham -Miss Amelia
    3.55 Uttoxeter -Hammersly Lake
    5.40 Uttoxeter -Irish Octave

    traf69 05/05/18 9:41 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Goodwood
    2.40 Masham Star
    Wetherby
    3.05 Gulf Of Poets
    5.30 Celerity
    Doncaster
    5.50 Broken Spear

    colin leafe 05/05/18 9:57 AM Reply


  • 3:15 Goodwood Pettochside ew
    Hollie Doyle on board again won last year at 18s and can go again.

    1:50 Newmarket Cote D’Azur 14s ew

    2:40 Goodwood Pastoral Player 22s ew

    On Josh’s singles and a fun Yankee

    GL everyone

    Darren 05/05/18 10:04 AM Reply


  • Had a busy evening so only starting to look at the cards so anything from me will be up late although have had 1pt e/w on Roaring Lion in 15:35 at Newmarket. If he didn’t run this season he would be close to favourite and if Gosden didn’t think his last run was too bad to be true he wouldn’t run him in this therefore particularly as you can get 4 places his price is just wrong, (taken 18-20/1)

    Nick Mazur 05/05/18 10:15 AM Reply


  • Ok. I don’t normally stick my head above parapet and this is hardly a ground-breaking tip but I know Coolmore are super keen on Saxon Warrior. Think he has come on loads over the winter and although he may take a while to get going and will improve for further, the slightly softer ground for the race should play into his hands.

    On another Coolmore note, AOB has gone to Kentucky not Newmarket. Read into that what you will but they are bullish about Mendelssohn.

    GO

    Ben

    921389 05/05/18 10:28 AM Reply


  • Move on quickly from yesterday, looks like a few needed the run so in tracker and one or two just where nowhere near.

    2:40 Goodwood – Squats (10/1 gen 4p/p) 1pt EW
    Mark was a little too high I think last season and it showed with very little form. However the mark has come back down and is well within a good working mark for this race. Trip and going will provide no issues, him being one of the very few with proven form on the going. Ignoring his LTO race on the AW where he completely missed the start and had far too much to do, he has a great chance to get a win today.

    4:10 Newmarket – Barton Mills (13/2 gen) 1pt EW
    One that is stat driven, Haggas has the ability to make first time handicappers pay. He is 34w56p from 122 giving a SR of above 25% on the win and above 45% on the place. Even around today’s course with HC1 runners he is 6w from 32 with 12p. Add this to his great form at the moment, this horse could be set for a stormer of a run. Loves to front run and he is drawn low which is perfect for him. He may be hard to peg back if he gets off quick

    Chris M 05/05/18 10:36 AM Reply


    • Unfortunate day, Squats never looked to be in a position to challenge as the jockey switched to try get through 3 or 4 times before finally getting a slot in the last furlong but by that point it was too late. Goes in tracker. Barton Mills lead for most of the race but just ran one pace towards the finish but could be one to watch in future HC company. In tracker also

      Chris M 05/05/18 8:49 PM Reply


  • Morning folks,
    Seems like a quiet Saturday so i’ll chip in with my picks based on my take on the MO of trainers. 50% or above win rate and 50% or above place rate. I will try to stick to highest rated first. Sorry don’t have time to list engagements.
    vice marshell ( stable in dire form ) pippin next best.
    tick tock boom (the paddy pie interesting at a price).
    sir bob
    oisain
    rare groove
    alto de mottes
    restive spirit
    warm oasis
    sir commander
    american
    parmenter
    Irish octave
    rock and stones
    One other to add to the mix is Fact Flow . Trainer maintains a respectable strike rate in this sphere. Jockey riding this type well. When teaming up with trainer in this sphere they are 8run 4wins 6places should give us a fun run for our money….well mine anyway.

    Good luck today

    jarrodholmes68 05/05/18 11:03 AM Reply


  • Hexham 8.35 Amuse Me 25/1 1pt E/W. My selections recently have been abysmal so tread with great caution, this old boy has got speedratings for his last 3 runs of 47-69-75 progressively getting better, Top rating in this race is 80 Josh’s pick funny enough, but that was over 17f and hurdles, Amuse Me is 3/1/6 for runs in May is 4/4/34 on good ground,5/1/10 in class 5, 7/4/19 at 20f, 11/13 wins when he reappears in under 30 days, 6/13 wins when reappearing in under 14 days, is 12lb under his last winning chase mark, to my eyes 25/1 is way over priced.

    Good Luck everyone with your bets today.

    Greg Phillips 05/05/18 11:15 AM Reply


  • Tips – we made back 5.5 points yesterday thanks to Sir Mark P and so are minus 4.5 points in May. I was out until 5.30 this morning playing in a poker tournament and have jumped straight back in to bet selection. So my tips for today are straight forward. Yesterday I put up Masar for two points at 5/1+ in the 2000 Guineas. I think that she can be up with the pace and try to burn them off. I also like Baydar, 1.50 Nkt. The horse has run in listed company and now drops to a mark of 95. Therefore at 28/1 I will go 2 point each way.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 05/05/18 11:45 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh,
    I’m off to Chester on Thursday, any chance you could go through the card? Or are you going to have a good look at the meeting like you do in your festival posts?

    jarrodholmes68 05/05/18 12:05 PM Reply


    • Hi Jarrod,
      yep I plan to do some ‘Festival Notes’ for the meeting, as I did last year- they did quite well from memory, esp the Andrew Balding pointers (back all his runners in effect if memory correct) I will try and make them focussed. Will be usual Section 1 stats. Am sure there will be the odd well drawn lone front runner to keep onside over the three days. I am off to Dublin Thursday but should be in Liverpool all of Wednesday so should be plenty for Day 1, and bits and pieces for the rest, outside of usual content
      Josh

      Josh 05/05/18 12:09 PM Reply


    • Re Chester, due to the extremely tight nature of the track (pretty much a constant turn) it pays dividends to back front runners drawn close to the rail in the sprints. It’s very hard to claw them back and get round something with decent early pace

      James P 05/05/18 1:34 PM Reply


      • yep .. look out for anything drawn 1 with d allan riding .. he loves riding chester and like you say he grabs hold the horse from the get-go and grabs the rail .. and the rest is history (hopefully in the making)

        btw .. just gotta say josh is giving us a master class in pinpointing winners .. i have gone from cosnistently losing to constistently winning looking and learning from this site 🙂 !! keep up the good work !!
        shirtless

        shirtless 05/05/18 6:17 PM Reply


  • Have started this month tragically (although in fairness a majority have just missed out on placing) so you may want to look away now:
    Roaring Lion Newmarket 15:35 1pt e/w
    Hammersly Lake Uttoxeter 15:55 1pt e/w
    Dommersen Newmarket 13:50 1pt e/w

    Have also had £5 e/w on Make Music in the 14:40 at Goodwood and Elusive Heights in the 15:05 at Wetherby (so around 0.25pt e/w for those wondering pt equivalent)

    Nick Mazur 05/05/18 12:57 PM Reply


  • Sorry guys just not clicking at the moment although at least Josh is picking up my slack.

    Nick Mazur 05/05/18 4:38 PM Reply


    • Chin up my friend, it’s a team effort! Turn that frown upside down haha. Negativity turns into a spiral! Have a beer or five,or a Malbec, and have a few days off ‘thinking horse’..it really does work wonders.

      Josh 05/05/18 4:58 PM Reply


      • One I like for this evening in a horrible looking race:
        Amuse Me Hexham 20:35 1pt e/w-Price taken 25/1-Given the price looked big given one of the few with any sort of form and at an ever slipping mark and dropping in class and running at his optimal distance. Trainer also in form. Yes he is 12 but you can’t have everything.

        Nick Mazur 05/05/18 5:02 PM Reply


        • I have also been going through a barren spell, but, Oasis Charm got me out of a sticky hole, fancy AMUSE ME also along with TIKKANDEMICKEY at around 10/1 only small stakes, but, wanted something to watch in the evening…haha.
          Swings and roundabouts…

          Stewart 05/05/18 8:02 PM Reply


  • Sunday’s post will be up at some point Sunday 🙂 off to a family party until midnight then off to Newmarket but I’ll fit in the essentials somewhere! 🙂 Enjoy your Sat evening.

    Josh 05/05/18 5:46 PM Reply


  • Have a good one Josh. Another nice winner for your Notes tips. Cheers

    Ken McKenzie 05/05/18 9:23 PM Reply


  • for tomorrow.
    ITV racing.
    Nemmarket.
    1-50. UAE Prince 7-1, i did look at Celestial Spheres 12-1 but top stable jockey Buick prefers Wolf Country 7-1 so maybe a small saver ew on that as well.
    2-20. Tisbutadream 10-1 looks a good ew bet if all 8 stay in.
    2-55. looks to be between Mr Lupton 4-1 and Ekhityaar 11-2 but not confident enough in either for a full bet so just a small one on Ekhityaar.
    3-35. Soliloquy looks a solid bet @11-2 and i’m having a couple of small ew’s on Madeline 50-1 and Billesden Brook 80-1.
    Hamilton.
    2-05. no bet
    2-35. Archippos 11-2 main bet , Donnachies Girl 11-1 ew

    martin whittle 06/05/18 8:00 AM Reply


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