Free Daily Post: 05/05/18 (complete)

TIPS

3.55 Uttoxeter – NONE…

Odd for me not to have a go at a race like this but having looked through I think I’d be betting for the sake of it. This does look a good opportunity for American, but his odds feel about right to me, especially given his inexperienced jockey – although she looks decent and her chase stats are fine, and she’s won some 12+ runner chases, so it could be a valuable 7lb- he will also race prominently which helps. At his best he would demolish this bunch I suspect, given he is still unexposed and has a touch more class than these- I’m not sure anything else could finish 2nd in that G2 two starts back. If he is well in himself there is no excuse here, provided he gets assistance from the saddle. The Skelton horse is interesting and unexposed over this trip. If he stays, and does not bounce (second run after returning 400+ days off LTO), he would have a chance, but his price seems short enough- I’d rather be on American at those prices I think but either could go well. Sizing Codelco won for us at Aintree in 2017 at 20/1 so owes me nothing – Robbie power somehow got him around as this one cannot jump. Again at Aye he was slow into numerous fences and is rarely fluent. Maybe Harry C’s magic hands will make the difference. He should travel well on the front end and if he jumps will go close. But it’s likely something is better handicapped than him in this. The Bowen horse..well he may need the run and as yet hasn’t won after a break and does seem to have the odd issue in his head, a bit inconsistent. This trip may not be far enough but clearly on that Sandown win a couple of years back he would go close. Somehow he finds himself rock bottom of the HorseRaceBase total ratings which I never like as they rarely win in C3+ handicap chases, maybe he will overcome that. Templehills may be the most interesting of the bigger priced ones. At least he comes here in form but he has a stamina and class question and he has to prove that he’s up to this level. 

I think if one of the top two in the market run their race it is theirs to lose, but I can’t tempt myself in at 11/2, and I’d probably pick the wrong one!If Sizing C jumps, he could go close.  If a biggie wins I’ll be annoyed but I couldn’t make a case for much else at the prices 

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A Bonus...hopefully! Given it has been so quiet on here I have repeated section 2 from today’s members post which is where I cast my own subjective eye over my stats qualifiers, before deciding if I wish to ‘tip’ anything. All the horses below hit my track stats to start with before I make a decision whether I want to tip/back them myself etc. 3 of the 4 also hit a systematic strategy in my members club also. 

Anyway, do with them as you please. 2018 hasn’t got going on this front just yet, awaiting a spike! Thankfully the members Festival tips have done rather well, so the collective tipping effort (inc +80 odd points on these free posts) has been just fine in 2018 to date. 

Many members’ enjoy the write ups also and if you wish to join our merry band, you can take a 7 week trial for £7 HERE>>>

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Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 7/83,29p, +7.5)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +101.5)

NOTES

2.40 Goodw – Love Dreams – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen)

4.30 Uttox – Black Sam Bella – 1 point win – 9/1 (gen) 

1.50 Newm – Oasis Charm – 1 point win – 10/1 (gen) 

8.35 Hex – Avondhu Pearl – 1 point win – 18/1 (PP/BV/BetfS) 16/1 (gen) 

 

Love Dreams… the first of two flat horses today I have tipped that arrive fit and in form having won LTO and who look like they should give me a run for my money. Love Dreams has to prove he is up to this mark but he is unexposed still as a handicapper and until he’s proved the handicapper has him, I’m happy to give any unexposed/lightly raced horse  a go if the price is right. This one did well in first time blinkers LTO and there could be more to come. That run at Newmarket on seasonal reappearance was good. Drawn in 7 this prominent racer should get out and get a prominent position. It could be a MJ 1-2 the whole way round, with Right Action not far behind. I have read nothing into the jockey bookings given Fanning has never ridden this horse which I find odd and suggests an owners decision, and Mosse is 3/10,6p riding for the trainer, 2/8,4p in handicaps, and he is 3/9,4p at the course from all rides in the last 5 years. I just thought there was a lot to like and especially given plenty in here may need the run and plenty more will need luck in running being held up types/drawn wide. I would hope the two Johnson horses don’t set this up for a closer which would be idiotic. I have had a saver on Masham Star given he is drawn low and races up there… he doesn’t look in as good form as his stablemate and is only 1/19 in turf handicaps, but these two could have it between them. He has the form to figure and is handicapped to do so. 

Black Sam Bella – makes handicap hurdle debut here after a break and steps up in trip. There are reasons to hope that she could now get involved, having run well enough in novice/maiden hurdles, running as if well worth a go over this far. Dan and Harry are 14/33,25p with all runners here in the last 365 days, Dan is 6/16,12p with all handicappers here returning after 60+ days. It’s the type of jumps profile I like to attack although as well have seen my jumps efforts on the notes front since Nov 17 haven’t been the best! The Hobbs horse is a worthy fav and I won’t fall off my seat if she wins, and Lavelle’s is interesting as she could get an easy lead here…just then whether she stays, but worth a go. Those three look most interesting to my eyes. 

Oasis Charm – given the market it may be wise to have a saver on the Varian horse who could be anything but given his price that could be argued as being rather cowardly! 10s has just lured me in here given he is unexposed in handicaps, is fit, in form having won LTO, and there should be more to come. I can’t think he has reached the ceiling of his abilities yet although clearly he could bump into something with more in hand/a touch more class. The trainer is 4/10,7p win the last 14 days, having started the UK turf season in fine form. Buick is riding superbly and rarely has a horse in the wrong position here. I think  the stalls are stand side in all races bar over 12f today, so hopefully he can get out and across/a decent position in the front 3rd- although from 2 that could be tough.  There is also a slight niggle about his attitude as having watched the video LTO his head carriage was a bit awkward and he dived left a tad..but he did respond to Buick’s urging and went past his rival easily enough. He stays further than this I suspect so will hopefully get rolling soon enough. I’d be disappointed if he wasn’t in the frame but just a case if anything is better treated/more unexposed. 10s seemed generous enough given his profile and hopefully plenty in here need the run. 

Avondhu Pearl – was well worth a go at 16s/18s to my eye given she is unexposed under rules, over fences, and in handicaps. She is a point winner on good ground and I can’t think enjoyed the heavy LTO. She travelled and jumped ok to a point. She returns to a decent surface here and takes a drop in class, into a very moderate race. The trainer is 7/22,11p here in C5 handicaps, and his son Sam rides at Uttoxeter earlier in the day I think, before heading up here. Her form ‘story’ makes sense also..she ran well until 3 out over 24f at Muss on handicap hurdle debut. I don’t think she stayed. She then had a break- to avoid the worst of the ground no doubt – returning over 17f in a C4 handicap hurdle, running well. I don’t think she has the pace for that trip and in any case probably needed it. She returned to fences LTO in heavy, running ok to a point. She could be well handicapped over fences when it all clicks and she faces plenty of old boys/moderate/out of form sorts. She may find this big field too much but I’m interested to see her in these conditions. Touch wood she jumps better out of this ground/jumps well generally, and gives me a run for my money. 18s seemed worth a stab and I’d like to see some money come, given her profile. Rossamilan – Russell isn’t prolific with handicap debutants but does have winners and I am more cautious with chase handicap debutants- fitness is an unknown and Russell is only 3/74 in the last 2 years with horses she moves in distance by 20% or more from last run- that put me  off a tad, but given his profile/connections in a C5 here, is maybe worth some change just in case, but my head said no. 

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That’s all for today.

GL with any bets,

Josh

 

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14 Comments

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  • Friday’s Top Rated :

    6.40 Cheltenham – Barel Of Laughs : WON AT 1.57
    3.30 Chepstow – Statuario : WON at 4.58
    3.30 Chepstow – Tallow : 2nd at 5.06
    2.50 Lingfield – Crossing The Line : 2nd at 4.80 (beaten by a head)
    4.40 Musselburgh – Trading Point : WON at 2.20
    7.30 Newcastle – Von Blucher : 9th at 16.47
    We had the winner& runner-up and a potential 12.3/1 forecast at Chepstow, but it doesn’t count.

    2/5 and -1.32pts ==> 4/13 (30.77%) for -1.76pts (-13.54%)

    Saturday :
    6.50 Doncaster – Salateen = NO BET unless other is a N/R
    7.20 Doncaster – Roussel = NO BET unless other is a N/R
    2.05 Goodwood – Mori
    5.35 Hexham – Applesandpierres
    3.35 Newmarket – Saxon Warrior
    3.55 Uttoxeter – American = NO BET unless other is a N/R
    3.55 Uttoxeter – Hammersly Lake = NO BET unless other is a N/R
    3.05 Wetherby – Kings Gift

    traf69 05/05/18 9:34 AM Reply


  • There are so many good Flat races today its easy to overlook cracking summer jumping Cards at Uttoxeter and Hexham. The weather is certainly picking up here in Staffordshire, genuinely warm and the Going at Uttoxeter should be perfect jumping ground.

    We have tipped one in the race so I won’t dwell on that one and mentioned one (probably need certifying as its Jonjo0 Mustmeetalady, it went in to my notebook running out the back in a race here in Autumn and duly won for us at 16/1 next time out at Doncaster on decent ground over 3 miles. Those ones are always nice and we swerved it next time out given soft Going. It is more of a hunch than anything but JJo has had such a poor winter, he has got a load of well handicapped sorts who might just benefit from some sun and better Going – so a small e/w poke on that one.

    The other one I found personally a bit intriguing was WOLF SWORD around 33/1 for Smith with young Coltherd up. Out of the handicap but off 10stones, decent pilot,it won at 3miles at MR beating a decent yardstick in Gonalston Cloud and ran well enough to suggest this might be its trip. If he gets in to a rhythm like so many of yards do, and gets some who look “knackered” after long season and a few who might just need the run and “take a blow” second time round – who knows and he does have some Course form (always useful here) so a small poke at 33.1 with odds to 4th everywhere.

    Ian SP2A 05/05/18 10:49 AM Reply


  • Morning folks,
    Seems like a quiet Saturday so i’ll chip in with my picks based on my take on the MO of trainers. 50% or above win rate and 50% or above place rate. I will try to stick to highest rated first. Sorry don’t have time to list engagements.
    vice marshell ( stable in dire form ) pippin next best.
    tick tock boom (the paddy pie interesting at a price).
    sir bob
    oisain
    rare groove
    alto de mottes
    restive spirit
    warm oasis
    sir commander
    american
    parmenter
    Irish octave
    rock and stones
    One other to add to the mix is Fact Flow . Trainer maintains a respectable strike rate in this sphere. Jockey riding this type well. When teaming up with trainer in this sphere they are 8run 4wins 6places should give us a fun run for our money….well mine anyway.

    Good luck today

    jarrodholmes68 05/05/18 11:06 AM Reply


    • I forgot to include Dance Emperor

      jarrodholmes68 05/05/18 11:19 AM Reply


    • WOW……. Fact Flow 66/1 ??????? Well Done Sir………

      Kevin Gibbard 05/05/18 9:23 PM Reply


  • I am in both
    Love Dreams and Oasis Charm both are prominent
    3.35 Masar very poor drawn only and Nebo are prominent
    5.20 Newmarket Book Of Dreams and Sam Gold are prominent i more like Book

    Pab 05/05/18 12:44 PM Reply


  • thank very much for todays tips maria 5/5/18

    MARIA DOYLE 05/05/18 12:48 PM Reply


  • Trying out a new ratings method for the flat big races which is a mixture of race trends, draw and pace:

    1:50 Newmarket Top 5 Rated
    Baydar -> Score 127.72
    Cote D’Azur -> Score 126.27
    Trulee Scrumptious -> Score 106.52
    Brorocco -> Score 96.10
    Oasis Charm -> Score 77.72

    Looking deeper into these there are three that catch my interest Cote D’Azur(14/1 gen)/Brorocco(14/1 gen)/Oasis Charm(10/1 lads, 8/1 gen)

    Taking a look into the 2000 Guineas as I type so have that up soon.

    Chris M 05/05/18 12:49 PM Reply


    • 3:35 Newmarket Top 5 Rated
      Elarqam -> Score 84.47
      James Garfield -> 78.87
      Saxon Warrior -> 67.20
      Roaring Lion -> 63.65
      Expert Eye -> 59.31

      Ones that catch my attention are Elarqam(11/2 gen)/James Garfield (25-22/1 some paying 4p)/ Expert Eye(12/1 gen)

      Lets see how these do today.

      Chris M 05/05/18 1:11 PM Reply


      • Quite pleased with the ratings for those two races. Josh’s pick ran well to claim first which meant if you had backed the 6 I mentioned you were guaranteed 5pts of profit using 1pt win bets. Out of the rest in the 1:50 the top 5 ratings there wasn’t much to scream about. In the 3:35 the top 5 ratings managed to pick out 1st,4th and 5th. Will have a look at some of tomorrow’s big field races and post them.

        Chris M 05/05/18 8:55 PM Reply


  • First boom Oasis Charm went to 6s

    Pab 05/05/18 1:57 PM Reply


  • Well Done Josh….. 2 very good winners from 4 free tips…..
    Much Appreciated…………

    Kevin Gibbard 05/05/18 9:26 PM Reply


  • Posting these here as the free post for tomorrow is not up yet and I don’t have time in the morning to put it there :(. Maybe somebody can copy and paste it there.

    Both races are on the Sunday the 6th using my trends with pace and draw bias applied. Below are the top 5 rated in each race.

    Top 5 Rated 1:50 Newmarket:
    Wolf Country -> 227.36
    Sofias Rock -> 175.47
    Grey Britain -> 159.53
    Alqamar -> 116.47
    Duke of Bronte -> 66.51
    Of them I fancy Wolf Country(8/1 gen)/Alqamar(20/1 gen)/Duke of Bronte(13/2 gen).

    Top 5 Rated 3:35 Newmarket:
    Happily -> 90.97
    Vitamin -> 86.60
    Wild Illusion -> 79.52
    Dan’s Dream -> 73.55
    Soliloquy -> 68.29
    Of that lot I fancy Wild Illusion(10/1 gen)/Dan’s Dream(16/1 gen)/Soliloquy(13/2 gen). I like the look of Happily(9/4 gen) but at the odds I am willing to let her run with no bet, no nightmares if she wins.

    All odds are from the night before so you may find better odds in morning.

    Chris M 05/05/18 11:34 PM Reply


  • Great two wins today, I like the way you study and think you offer something different to other tipsters. Really looking forward to your development on flats and I am backing you all the way. What a unique way to enjoy this sport!

    To y 06/05/18 1:03 AM Reply


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