Members Daily Post: 02/05/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Ascot – NONE

Pontefract 

3.55 –

Give It Some Teddy (micros TJC/going/age)  7/1 UP

Mutarakez (m going) I3 G3 7/1  WON 7/1>4/1 

Ghayyar (m going)  (trainer change) 20/1 UP

4.30 –

Tawny Port (all hncps) 6/1 WON 6/1>7/1 

Lexington Times (m going) I1 10/1 S6 UP

Cosmic Chatter (m going) I3 G3 16/1  3rd 14/1 (some run given where he came from, next time, but won’t be 16s and will prob want him EW given HU style) 

Geoff Potts (m class + runs) 8/1 UP

5.40 –

Foxtrot Knight (m dist/going) H1 I1 G3 2/1 S1 S2 S4  WON 9/4 

Suitcase N Taxi (m going) I3 8/1  2nd 8/1 (15pR4) > 5/2 

 

Brighton

6.10 – Ettie Hart (m dist) 14,30 G3 7/2  2nd 

6.40 – Iley Boy (m class) H1 I1 9/1 S1 S6  UP

7.40 – Kafeel (m class) w1 H1 G3 5/2  S2 UP

8.10 – Beau Mistral (m dist) 14,30 G3  7/2  UP

 

Bath 

5.45 – High Horse (2YO) 2/1 2nd

6.20 –

Coronation Cottage (m dist) ES+ 11/1 S3A UP

Sweet Pursuit (m age) 9/1 UP

7.20 – De Vegas Kid (4yo+ hncps) w1 14,30 H1 I3 9/4 S2 WON 10/3 

7.50 – Pastfact (m dist) ES+ 10/1 S3A  UP

8.20 – Frank Cool (4yo+ hncps) 14,30 G3 7/1 3rd 

 

*

KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 22nd April 2018)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 22nd April 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

*

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 7/80,26p, +2.5)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +101.5)

NOTES

3.55 Ponte – Mutarakez – 1 point win – 7/1 (gen) WON 7/1>4/1 (no R4, that was at 7am or so, just before I got up!) 

5.40 Ponte – Suitcase N Taxi – 1 point win – 15/2 (gen) 2nd…no excuse there, got the lead but didn’t do much with it, well and truly stuffed by the other qualifier, nearly got nabbed for 2nd which would have been annoying. If every horse I backed at 7s or so got sent off at 5/2 i’d be very wealthy, over time! 

That will be all for ‘tips’

Mutarakez... well it’s now or never here for this one I think, on his 5th start for Ruth Carr. There really is no excuse. This horse has gone close in C2s when trained by Meehan, not missing out by far off 89 at Newbury over 8f in soft last May. He has won/run well in this month before and with any luck he can build on his last run. Carr does like to run some of hers into fitness and I don’t think she is ever too strenuous with them at home- she wouldn’t gallop them as much as others, preferring the ‘lunging’ pen (I think that’s where they go around in circles with a handler in the middle/or loose) – and it’s with that in mind that I liked the fact this one returns 11 days after his last start, given his run there at Nottingham was after 27 days. Maybe that run has got him spot on for this and he was fresh enough there through the first 2/3rds of the race, he didn’t settle to my eye and that told just near the end. My hunch is actually that he is a monkey but Jimmy S takes back over, he is very well drawn (and bounced out well LTO to grab a prominent position) and he will have the rail to race up against. This bend and climb to the line may keep his mind on the job. Or he will look all over whoever is in front of him, only to fail to go through with it. I see no reason why he shouldn’t run a big race here. The O’Meara horse (Lamloon) 2nd  is an obvious danger given he beat him LTO. He got a soft enough lead there, is up in the ratings and M faces him on better terms, and he has to prove it on soft. It isn’t impossible that he gets a soft enough lead here also from stall 9, if he can get out (not easy from there), and these two ‘could’ be 1-2 the whole way round again. (hmmm, well, 33/1 forecast) I’ve had a small saver on him, just in case, and it could be he has strengthened up from last year and soft won’t now be an issue. I’d like to think the draw and his hold up running style will do for Give It Some Teddy and i haven’t got a penny on him as I write. He is ‘only’ 7s, and I can live with it if he somehow takes this from there. At his best Mutarakez should be too good for these, but he clearly has a bit going on in his head i’d suggest. I thought there were just enough positives at his price. He is fit, well, well drawn, should track whoever leads in 2nd/3rd, conditions are fine, he has a rail, well handicapped on old form, does have more class than this at his best, reasons to think he could build on that run LTO. 

Suitcase N Taxi... i tipped him LTO I think (when I left Mr Orange at 20s, it still hurts!) so hopefully I can get compensation here. I took a chance on fitness that day which proved foolish although he had run well after a break. However most/all of T Easterby’s have been in desperate need of the run this year, although that is the case most years- his record with horses returning 60+ days is iffy at best. Anyway, this one bounced out and led for a time LTO and i’m hoping he does the same here. He is ‘doing something different’ in that he drops to 5f. That is a question but I thought in what could be soft ground, at this stiff track, his extra stamina could well be a bonus. The Dixon horse will be up there also and on paper, these two could be 1-2 deep into the final furlong. Foxtrot Knight will no doubt then sweep past the pair of them but his odds are short generally, let alone for a hold up horse around here ridden by an apprentice. On the ratings it suggests he is the one to beat and may simply have too much for them, but we shall see. Anyway – this one is well drawn to attack and if he can get out and be up there, holding a position, I can’t see him being far away at the end. This jockey looks tidy enough.. 2/11 in her career to date, all for Tim, 2/4,2p in apprentice handicaps, and I noted both of those wins came from prominent rides- both effectively made all. Interesting. He is well handicapped with the 5lb off and has won at C4 last season, this being a C5. Soft is a question, but he has run/won on good to soft, and at his price I will take a chance. In that context the drop to 5f could be a smart move, if his jockey can get the fractions right. I’m hoping the Dixon horse will fade away (as I write that he has become a non runner..so no excuse for SNT not getting an easy lead I think..even despite the drop back, nothing else in this usually goes forward)  I thought there was plenty to like and more than happy to have a dart. He won on his second start of the season last year in May- although ran better on his first run- so fingers crossed he can do so again. Hopefully he steals a march on Foxtrot , who will leave his challenge too late…i’ll be crying out for the line no doubt as he flashes late and hard. 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

Flat Angles – Roger Fell… none today… (I will highlight all quals from the jockeys listed below, within the starter set of rules, Hamilton being the main one. I need to have another dive in to see if I have missed anything etc. I’ll also create a Flat ‘Fact Sheet’ as I did with the jumps (saved in research link above) for ease of reference to the various bullet points below)

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

Research: Roger Fell

Video below…it’s one for the purists, a ‘Horse Race Base’ video as I delve into Roger Fell’s stats and show a glimpse of my thinking as I tried to uncover an angle of note. It is 40 mins or so in length but some of you may find it interesting/informative/useful/very dull (delete as appropriate) 

 

 

I need to do some further thinking but so far I have settled on…

Rules

  • Roger Fell 
  • Jockey: Tony Hamilton
  • Handicaps (both codes) 
  • Horse had 2+ runs ‘this season’
    • (as defined by HRB, which for Turf they use first meeting at Donny in April as starting point, for AW i’m not 100% sure,could be turn of the calendar year) 
  • Official Rating: Same or lower than last run 
  • 2016- (when he started training) 

92 bets / 20 wins / 35p / +123 SP / +155 BFSP / AE 2.01 

Within that set of rules/stats…further pointers…

  • 8/1 or shorter SP: 15/41, 22p, +68 
  • 22/1>33/1: 3/10,3p, +96 
  • 5th or worse LTO: 15/58,22p, +140 BFSP 
    • 8/1 or shorter: 12/24,16p, +68 
    • 22/1-33/1: 3/9,3p, +97 
  • 3YO only and 4yo+  : 9/35,16p, +88 
  • Sunday/Monday/Tuesday: 13/46,17p, +158 
  • Other jockeys: B Curtis/P J McDonald/A McNamara / SDS / D Tudhope
    • 6/31,11p, +62 
    • Hamilton has been on 20 of the 22 winners since 19th June last year, suggesting he is the main man now. Curtis at Southwell and McDonald at Donny may be the exceptions. 

*

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

31 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Evening folks. I wouldn’t normally post as early as this but I’m off to watch my beloved Pars v The Arabs in the Championship Play-offs.

    Market is a bit thin at the moment but there are some bigger odds than I took still available. Qualifiers at Wolves tomorrow as follows:
    1.50 Malaysian Boleh 15/5 & Bop It 7/1
    3.35 Madame JoJo 25/1 (EW) & Going Native 14/1
    4.10 Battalion 18/1
    4.45 Club Tropicana 8/1 & Desert Diamond 11/2
    5.20 Revalue 9/2
    1 pt win each except where shown

    Good Luck

    Ken McKenzie 01/05/18 6:00 PM Reply


    • Been to Arbroath (The Arabs), home of the Smokey ‘Fresh smoked Haddock from the North Sea’. Enjoy the Fish and Chips.

      martin colwell 01/05/18 6:06 PM Reply


      • I think the Arabs are Dundee Utd
        Thats their nickname.
        I should check the fixture list though

        Chris Mcilfatrick 01/05/18 7:17 PM Reply


        • Yes you are correct, Arbroath are the Smokies. But they are playing Dumbarton this evening in the play offs this evening. Perhaps Ken is off to the wrong ground???

          martin colwell 01/05/18 7:29 PM Reply


          • The Arabs are playing away at the Pars in the championship playoffs.
            The Pars is Dunfermlines nickname.
            I checked the fixtures lol

            Chris Mcilfatrick 01/05/18 8:06 PM Reply


            • Yes you are correct, I am confusing Dunfermline with Dumbarton. Schoolboy error!!!!

              martin colwell 01/05/18 8:19 PM Reply


              • Haha, that made me laugh. 0-0 draw which considering we had a man sent off 10mins before HT, is a creditable result. All to play for in the 2nd leg on Friday.

                Ken McKenzie 01/05/18 10:58 PM Reply


  • Mine up early as off to cinema soon:
    Pastime Ascot Wednesday 16:55 1pt e/w-Price taken 16-18-1 5 places
    Our Lord Bath Wednesday 19:50 1pt e/w-Price taken 7-8/1
    Short Work Pontefract Wednesday 16:30 1pt e/w-price taken 11/1 3 places 1/4 and 10/1 4 places 1/5 split stakes

    I’ll try and do the write ups on the train in the morning although as I am up at 6:15AM brain may not function.

    Nick Mazur 01/05/18 7:10 PM Reply


    • Pastime was highlighted by my five-year stats on first time tongue tie.

      Gay Kelleway is 4/19, +35, with chi of 7.52, so better than 99% chance not random. In other words she knows what she’s doing.

      Chris Murrell 01/05/18 10:48 PM Reply


    • Pastime-Has been running solid races in class 2 company including a 5th in the Spring Mile and drops to his easiest race for quite sometime. Form of the Spring Mile has worked out well with the 2nd and 7th going 1/2 in the Spring Cup at Newbury a couple of weekends ago. Did appear to be put into the race last time but has been dropped 3lbs in the past 2 runs. He was 3rd, just 2 lengths behind a horse who is now rated in the 110s on his only start at track. Trainer has had a terrier few months but finally had her first winner in 3 months this week and 6 of her last 7 runners have placed so stable is flying. She puts the tongue tie on here which as Chris said above has worked well for her. Ground shouldn’t be issue given the horse has ran well from good/firm to soft. Small niggle was a draw but I thought there enough pace drawn low.

      Short Work-Would have needed it last time but was a very progressive horse last year. The blinkers return as does Danny Tudhope who is 4/5, 5p on the horse in flat handicaps. He also rides the track very well and has gone 5/16, 9p in handicaps at the track over the past 12 months when riding for the boss. Most of the pace is drawn high so there is a good chance he gets an easy lead or at worse can race up there with the pace from a good draw. Horse has won on his only run at the track. Form of his last win in the autumn as been franked with the 2nd hosing up by 4L and 4th going a close 2nd on reappearance. (Both in big field handicaps full of unexposed types).

      Our Lord-Won a class 2 over course and distance here on his last start at the track and is only 3lbs higher (3rd went on to be placed in a listed race in the autumn). Egan is 3/3 on him and horse is 4/5 over 5.5f overall. Trainer and jockey have yet to be out of the places here (5/7, 7p). He has ran well both of his last two starts off a break. Gets a plum draw and should lead from pillar to post.

      Nick Mazur 02/05/18 7:28 AM Reply


    • Pastime NR – temperature

      chrisrees 02/05/18 9:19 AM Reply


  • Mr Dascombe has one out tomorrow SESAME 5:45 BATH 10/1
    Not sure what His strike rate is with 2yr old’s though.

    Warren bottomley 01/05/18 7:28 PM Reply


  • Great video Josh and a good choice of trainer. Very interesting.

    NICK BRYANT 01/05/18 10:50 PM Reply


    • I like your initiative, too, with Mr Fell; I know he does not gallop his horses at home so that fitness may have to be achieved on course, as your data confirms. He has quickly become patronised by some shrewd owners (he seems to have started training out of the blue, with a ready made yard, so what is his background?) and has quickly progressed as your research shows. Has links with other northern yards eg O’Meara.
      A careful eye needs to be kept on Ben Sanderson, a much respected claimer (down at Bath today for J O’Shea), who is a cute rider with his non triers, but who is sure to ride winners this season too.
      Have you thought about delving into apprentices? N Curry, J Watson have risen quickly to regular winner riding but there are many others worthy of a bit of study. Can we develop a list to follow, collectively?

      chrisrees 02/05/18 7:41 AM Reply


      • Chris, I know a bit of background, as I know some lads who have horses with Roger and I know one of his nephews very well too(Roger is from the same village as me). He’s been an owner for a good number of years, he owns the yard where I think he was first assistant to O’Meara and then assistant to David loughana. He tuck over the license in November 2016.

        Gavin Johnson 02/05/18 3:23 PM Reply


        • Thanks, Gavin, that helps; I knew there was some connection with D O’M but the exact details had lapsed.

          chrisrees 02/05/18 5:18 PM Reply


    • Thanks Nick, glad you enjoyed it. He does look a trainer worth keeping onside. We shall find out if that is the case in the months ahead.

      Chris…ah well, yep that seasons run stat would make plenty of sense in that context, he may well use young Ben on plenty that need the run, helping him gain valuable experience in the process. I always find following apprentices tricky, there is no doubt a way in (riding for first time/didn’t ride LTO/on horse moving up in class-won LTO-tight handicaps etc), but first off i want to find a few more trainer angles of note as starting points, and then looking at jockeys. I do want to look at Callum Rodriquez who has some impressive stats building up in which to dig further hopefully.
      Josh

      Josh 02/05/18 10:00 AM Reply


  • Morning, my betting bank has taken a hammering recently, but, looking forward to the guineas meeting this weekend and hopefully getting off to a flyer today with the hcp at Ascot.
    16:55 Ascot
    MR MINERALS 12/1 gen 1 pt ew
    This lightly raced Richard Hughes 4yo may have been protected somewhat from the handicapper after being hugely impressive when beating Glorious Poet and Hersigh and that form looks really strong here. It’s just 3lb higher now but has Finley Marsh’s 3lb claim and the tongue tie goes on for the first time. The draw of 15 from 20 runners should also be beneficial and the 12/1 looks way too big.
    SIR TITAN 18/1 365 1 pt ew
    Sir Titan could be poised for a big return, his second to Battered at Goodwood over seven furlongs with Medahim then rated 100 behind is a nice piece of form. Sir Titan has won on a return at Wolves. On his last outing over ten furlongs at Lingfield he lead before being headed. Trainer Marcus Tregoning has decent course statistics and has been in the winners enclosure before.

    Good luck in whatever you back today!

    Stewart 02/05/18 6:06 AM Reply


  • Short on time so will try get some reasoning up later.

    3:55 Pontefract – Remember the Days (14/1 gen, Betfred 5p) 0.5pt EW

    8:10 Brighton – Beau Mistral (4/1 gen) 1pt WIN

    6:20 Bath – Coronation Cottage (11/1 gen) 1pt EW
    Mention: Sweet Pursuit (8/1 gen) 0.5pt EW

    Chris M 02/05/18 9:30 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Not the start wanted with no winner from three bets,and today i find it hard to believe that the clerk of two courses are advertising good going at Bath and Brighton after listening to the weather reports.
    Pontefract
    3.20 Viglee Le Brun
    3.20 Arcane Dancer
    4.30 Inner Circle

    colin leafe 02/05/18 10:33 AM Reply


  • Tips – I lost 4 points yesterday. Today I go with Fighting Irish, 3.45 Asc, at 33/1 for 1 point each way. He does have some decent form and is overpriced here. I will also go 1 point each way, 4.25 Bri, Princess Keira at 7/1. She takes a drop in grade and will come on for first run of the season.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 02/05/18 1:22 PM Reply


  • Mutarakez… THAT WAS THE LONGEST HALF FURLONG OF MY LIFE .. WELL DONE MR SULLIVAN .. NEVER IN DOUBT !! .. AND WHAT SHOUT MR WRIGHT !!!

    BRIAN 02/05/18 3:59 PM Reply


    • ha , you and me both! Got away with it there, class/prob 10lb in hand of current mark, softer ground/keen first half for second, has all got him out of a hole. Luckily he switched him early enough on the bend turning for home, that has saved his bacon there! On we go. 33/1 forecast as well. Hmmm.

      Josh 02/05/18 4:05 PM Reply


  • Great shout Josh……now for the double. lol

    Tony Mc

    tonymc 02/05/18 4:00 PM Reply


    • I may have had 5EW on the 55/1 double haha. EW part should land as if he gets easy lead he shouldn’t be out of top 2! But i’d have taken 1 from 2, and a nice 1-2 in that race with the danger/saver horse.

      Jimmy S a lucky boy…he is a tricky horse but he should have had him a fair bit further forward there, he then could have just tracked Danny all the way round. But, won’t complain. He is better than c4 at his best and that class has won him that. Wouldn’t bank on him following up mind but could still have a fair chunk in hand.

      Josh 02/05/18 4:04 PM Reply


      • Spot on Josh….i got the double ew…..Happy though. lol
        Tony Mc.

        tonymc 02/05/18 6:14 PM Reply


  • great tip and write up josh i been here since last august and i think you are getting better on how the selected trainer trains its animals spot on with ruth carr running quickly again with jimmy s on top take a bow

    paul bailey 02/05/18 4:24 PM Reply


    • Cheers Paul, nice when they read the script, well nearly, bit too far back for my liking but having pondered…they rushed him out the stalls LTO, when he was keen, and maybe that was why, rather than him still being ‘fresh’ – he let him find his own position in the race today and just got away with it. He would not have finished like that if he’d have run as he did at Notts.
      Anyway.
      Ha, well, i should be getting better the amount I ponder my own performance and reflect on every tip and every missed winner (Tawny Port!!) There would be something up if i wasn’t getting better, but you still have to go and prove it and there is a long way to go yet this Flat season. The Easterby winner and that winner shows what is possible when my brain is working. And these Flat stats are firing out winners which I am delighted about – much more so than their jumps cousin this season (which may have been in part down to weather/impact on trainers etc). I’ll find more like that, just keeping the losers down. We shall see how it goes. There is no doubt i’ve improved on ‘Festival tips’ and maybe last Sept/Oct on the flat in the notes was due to the 4 months previous that I spent trying to improve my ‘flat eyes’. The ‘notes’ approach, rather than a ‘tip of the day’ stops me over-thinking things also.
      Josh

      Josh 02/05/18 4:52 PM Reply


  • yep josh the info is at your finger tips but the anorak side of constant form and trainer study can be tedious whe n theres liverpool playing or a pint waiting

    paul bailey 02/05/18 5:07 PM Reply


    • ha, true, although I have a routine Mon-Friday – I don’t look through the section 1 qualifiers until the morning, first thing. Come this stage in a day (5-7pm) i’ve been thinking horse for 10-12 hours and I know I don’t function as well, from an analysis side. I may be a tad groggy Thursday morning mind, as come what may, i’ll be having a few drinks! (either in celebration or misery)
      Josh

      Josh 02/05/18 5:13 PM Reply


      • I’m off to a pub now for the match with free whiskey…win or lose [spit]
        They had free whisky when we pulled back to 3-3 then on to win it last time…..no trouble but lots of squeaky bums…I get a seat…deference to age roflmao…

        Tony Mc.

        tonymc 02/05/18 6:22 PM Reply


Post A Reply