Members Daily Post: 30/04/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT

Thirsk 

2.20 – Yorkshire Pudding (4yo+) 22/1 UP

2.55 – Jessie Allan (micro class) I1 G1 12/1 S1 S6  UP

4.05 –

Bossipop (4yo+, m class) I1 9/1 S6  UP

Black Isle Boy (m age) 12/1 WON 12/1>16/1 

Muscika (m age) H3 11/1 UP

5.35 – Braes of Lochalsh (m class)  I3 20/1 

 

Windsor

7.40 – Petitioner (all hncps 5 yrs, all) w2 ES+ H3 I3  9/4 S3A 

 

Salisbury 

2.30- Just An Idea (m class/age) G1 20/1 S6  UP

3.40 –

Pretty Jewel (all hncps) w2 I3 G3 11/4  WON 11/4>5/4 (R4) 

Flight of Fantasy (m age) w2 H3 I3 G3 11/2 S4 S5 

4.45 – Artic Nel (all hncps) G3 10/1 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 22nd April 2018)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 22nd April 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 7/79,26p, +3.5)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +101.5)

NOTES

None today, nothing I wish to ‘tip’ from the stats qualifiers above.

There three flat S6 qualifiers to entertain any followers of that strategy… Jessie Allan… a rare EW bet for me, given she has yet to win a race after 37 starts and does like placing! In C6, 7F handicaps she is 0/14,5p, 0/7,3p on turf… she has plenty of solid runs to her name at this level… LTO they tried making all with her and if they wish to do so again here, she should get an easy lead, which makes her of more interest. IF the fav fluffs his lines, (unexposed/could be anything,but first run of the season) this race becomes very open. Anyway, she is S6 and if you follow it you follow it. Bossipop has a decent chance provided he comes on for that last run, Just An Idea looks up against it to my eyes, but you never know. We are still at the stage of the season where plenty are making their reappearances which adds a level of educated guesswork into the equation. Tim Easterby’s, for example, in the main have been badly needing the run.

Anyway, GL with any bets, as always.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Tipping Update…

Nick Mazur… who has been ‘tipping’ in the comments the longest and why I often single him out, since Sept 1st, in terms of assigning a stake to a selection, which identifies it as a tip and makes up the following numbers… to 1 point EW stakes, at the prices Nick gets himself (as with anything you follow, here or elsewhere, it’s always advised to keep your own results, even if a basic P/L on whatever strategy/tipster you follow)… April 2018… +33.95 points… 2018 to date… +139.87 points. Many a pro tipping service would like those results! I’d better up my game on the Monday-Friday fare, esp on the Flat. As always such results are shared simply to help you make informed choices about what you do with various info shared on these pages.

All comments on daily posts are appreciated in whatever form they take, and they make this community what it is really. So, keep it up all 🙂

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Results Update: to follow

Trainer Track Profiles: Flat 2018 … I plan to get this stats pack, which everything in Section 1 ‘Flat’ stems from, complete this week. I don’t think I have too many more tracks left on the list. I know some of you like using the stats alongside the qualifiers above in which to make more informed decisions etc.

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

31 Comments

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  • From yesterday’s post…
    Nick M…
    Awesome Allan Windsor Monday 18:10 1pt e/w-Price taken 12-14/1
    Love Candy Thirsk Monday 17:35 1pt e/w Price taken 25/1

    Josh 30/04/18 7:34 AM Reply


    • Exceptional results again Nick, very well done!

      Paul

      PAUL EBREY 30/04/18 9:30 AM Reply


    • Well done Nick. A nice winner on Saturday with Inviolable Spirit.

      martin colwell 30/04/18 10:15 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh,

    What are Nick’s returns to 1pt win as like yourself I’m not a big e/w fan.

    Thanks

    Jim

    Jim 30/04/18 9:28 AM Reply


    • No idea 🙂 I don’t keep the results myself, just ask Nick to fire them over P/L. I doubt he keeps records to 1 point win, so I suppose we should track them ourselves on that front! They are going to be very profitable still, but given Nick’s approach maybe not as profitable… the EW advice/his approach, stems from how he analyses races/horses, of which the starting point is very much those likely to get competitive and place. There will be method to his EW madness, but I can’t think you’d go far wrong backing win only, just the losing runs/no returns will be longer, obviously.
      Josh

      Josh 30/04/18 9:42 AM Reply


    • Sorry Jim you would have to keep your own records for 1pt win only. Mine are to points advised which are largely 1pt e/w but have had a few 0.75pt e/w and some 1.5pt or 2pt win and the very rare 1.5pt e/w.

      Nick Mazur 30/04/18 10:28 AM Reply


      • Ok Nick, thanks for that mate.

        Great results, I will just follow your staking plan.

        Jim 30/04/18 4:16 PM Reply


  • Windsor
    Roger Charlton has had many horses coughing, as recently as 7 days ago.

    chrisrees 30/04/18 9:44 AM Reply


    • interesting, thought 9/4 looked short enough anyway, although I think that with anything under 6s haha, but that would make his current price even more concerning- clearly expected to go well, and fitness never usually a problem if he wants them fit, so how he runs could be some indication as to whether there are problems, 0/7 last 30 days.

      Josh 30/04/18 9:53 AM Reply


  • Tomorrow i will be putting all my bets from the Flat, NH and AW on here,there will be plenty of bets for there are 5 to 8 race meetings a day so if you decide to follow the bets then you must have a betting bank 50 times your stake.
    Over the years May through to the end of October have been very profitable,one slight worry for May is that with all the rain the ground is not drying out and most flat horses are bred for gd,gd/fm and firm going and they also like the sun on their backs to help lose their winter coats,sadly it is more winter than Spring.
    Please be careful and not bet what you cannot afford to lose if you do not have a bank then do not bet till you have for we may start on a long losing run,lets hope not.

    colin leafe 30/04/18 10:27 AM Reply


    • Hi Colin….I have posed this question before as you are always at pains to stress the betting bank [quite rightly] importance…
      Do you know your longest losing run in the different disciplines…ie: AW, Flat and over the sticks.
      many thanks Col.

      Tony Mc.

      tonymc 30/04/18 10:55 AM Reply


      • Hi Tony
        Having destroyed all my records for racing and golf approx 9 months ago for never was going to tip again then decided to put up golf bets for which from the start always put up the profit or loss at the end of each month.
        Racing i have never kept the codes separate before till February when started putting up the AW to prove that you can make money on the sand,now that i have put the codes together for me it is easier and i would say a maximum 30 losers that is why you need a bank for confidence for if the losing run was 30 you would only have 40% of your bank left and then doubts come into play so if you can have a bank of 100 would be better for you will not panic with the losing runs.
        Finally i always fear for anyone who invests with my bets that cannot afford the losing runs that is why i will always recommend a betting bank,and i will always record the bets to Bookmakers SP how many on Josh’s site do this let alone the established sharks out there?
        Remember it is your and everyone’s choice if you wish to back alongside me with your hard earned cash but you must have a bank.

        colin leafe 30/04/18 12:50 PM Reply


        • Cheers Colin…i understand all your worries…That’s fine.. and thanks for the heads up.
          BOL.
          Tony Mc.

          tonymc 30/04/18 2:56 PM Reply


    • Good luck Colin. I may be back soon with my own AW tips.

      Ken McKenzie 30/04/18 11:44 AM Reply


    • Colin,
      I don’t play other peoples selections per se rather I take in an overall feeling for a race from people whose opinion I think are worthy of consideration. While you probably have too many bets for my personal format, I appreciate not only your hard work on this forum but the strength to put your name to them and not a non de plume or various fictitious characters.
      When considering your contribution along with enlightening posts from Nick and time consuming work from Josh, snippets from others, it makes into a wonderful enviornment. I didn’t start off in the best way on here but I do know my racing and hope to contribute plenty going forward.

      chubnut 30/04/18 7:32 PM Reply


  • Poor Saturday, will try to finish April with some nice bets.

    4:05 Thirsk – Black Isle Boy (10/1 gen) 1pt EW
    Won his first 3 starts last season all over 6f, 2 Hcp and one Maiden. He had a rather torrid second half to his season and as such his mark has came back down to just 2 off the mark he was winning last season. Concerns over the going as he may prefer better going but looking at the field the vast majority prefer better ground so will be a slog at the finish. His draw means if he can get away strong he could be right there at the end.

    Chris M 30/04/18 11:10 AM Reply


    • That’s more like it 16/1 BOG winner puts April well into profit!! Ran exactly like I expected him to and he duly delivered

      Chris M 30/04/18 4:10 PM Reply


      • good shout Chris, I lacked your confidence in his morning price given conditions/the break etc, 16s a tad more palatable, that will teach me! Trusting one that had won first time up/after lengthy break before, no bad ploy at this time of year clearly.

        Josh 30/04/18 4:14 PM Reply


        • Thanks Josh. Yeah he initially stood out for me as the trainer and jockey are in lightning form at the moment but as you say looking into his form after a break I had to take the chance. Plus that first win last season was with the same jockey so he knew how to run him after the break. Don’t normally do large fields and I probably tunnelled vision on him but one of those ones that if they win its great but if
          it loses you look at the winner and realise your mistake quickly. Luckily the later didn’t happen this time. On to May!!

          Chris M 30/04/18 4:28 PM Reply


          • yep, well he is in Section 1 above also, and any horse that wins at that price, that is outside of a strategy, I think I should land on in the ‘Notes’ in section 2, stared at him and his stablemate for long enough but dodged them both! Much staring at him post race. Fitness clearly shouldn’t have been an issue, and prob built into odds of 12s given that he had won his maiden 340+ odd days after one run before that. Could be he is a first half of season horse…up in trip, drop 2 classes, back against elders/all age after a few runs in 3YO only handicaps, the choice of Tudhope, drawn low which seems to be the place here when some ‘cut’, even if only a little bit of juice, and clearly open to improvement from last year if growing some more etc. Ground was an unknown which you build into price, couldn’t say he wouldn’t handle good to soft and in any case is probably drying out all the time. I think lack of form in big field may have swayed me and his profile was very similar to his stablemate, but jockey booking should have dictated I suppose, but said with hindsight! much to ponder for me there. When you play in that odd range it doesn’t take many winners to eradicate losses/propel into profit.

            Josh 30/04/18 4:37 PM Reply


      • Saturday a distant memory now Chris. Nice hit.

        chubnut 30/04/18 4:24 PM Reply


        • Thanks, yeah had a dull run since mid last week so this was well overdue

          Chris M 30/04/18 4:31 PM Reply


      • Well done Chris M….I can’t remember what stopped me having a go, but a cracking winner…well done C….
        Tony Mc.

        tonymc 30/04/18 5:15 PM Reply


  • Pennsylvania Dutch 12/1 4.05 Thirsk
    7.10 windsor Zorro around 6s

    I like Zambeasy 7,40 windsor !6/1 off mark leader but that horse need good ground

    Pab 30/04/18 1:27 PM Reply


  • Great start to the week Josh for section 1 qualifiers.

    Warren Bottomley 30/04/18 2:44 PM Reply


    • ?? No winners on here as yet! I assume you may have backed the SP2A (not my service for anyone unaware who they are) 28/1 ‘mention’ winner at 1/4 point EW :)…and are referring to that?

      Josh 30/04/18 2:47 PM Reply


      • Your right Josh…i took 28s…and the other selection placed too. 33/1 was available before the off for a short while.

        Nice one for SP2A on the last day of April.

        Tony Mc.

        tonymc 30/04/18 3:06 PM Reply


      • Should have played on the sand having great fun building sand castles,and in between we have had a winner ha ha

        colin leafe 30/04/18 3:14 PM Reply


      • Mmmm. Not a member of spa2. I just assumed it was a qualifier has I hadn’t looked at anything else today other than the members and free post and snowy at tipster platforms is having a week off. maybe I did look at something else lol. How can I not remember putting a bet on or where I got it from. Holiday needed I think.

        Warren Bottomley 30/04/18 4:19 PM Reply


        • Warren, relax it was only a “mention”

          chubnut 30/04/18 6:51 PM Reply


          • very true, at least they are putting a staking amount by them now and there appears to be some consistency, and i assume the results will be recorded, so that we can make informed choices down the line. My own hunch is that they will end up doing as well as the 1/2 point EW ‘tips’ , in terms of win % and ROI etc, but time will tell.

            Josh 30/04/18 7:06 PM Reply


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