Members Daily Post: 28/04/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

JUMPS

Sandown

1.50- Ar Mest (nov hncp) w2 14/1 S2 UP

3.35 – 

Rock The Kasbah (m1) w2 I3 11/1 S2 S5 

Sugar Baron (m1) 30 G1 14/1 S1 S2 

5.15 – 

Psychedelic Rock (all hncps) w2 25/1 S2A UP

Mystic Sky (all hncps) w2 25/1 S2A UP

Ballotin (hncp h + m2) 33/1  UP

Wait For Me (hncp h + m1+m2) 6/1 

Stowaway Magic (hncp h) 30  12/1 S2 UP

Soul Emotion (hncp h) w1 H3 30  13/2 WON 13/2 

Loug Derg Spirit (hncp h) 30 H3 10/1 S2  UP

 

FLAT

Haydock

2.05 – Calder Prince (4yo+ 5 yrs,all + micro TJC) w1 30 ES+ H3 13/2 S3A UP

3.15 – 

Fire Diamond  (4yo+ 5 yrs,all + micro TJC) w1 30 ES+ H1 I1 8/1 S1 S3A S6  4th 

Fleetfoot Jack (micro age) H3 8/1 2nd 

Parole (micro dist) H3 I3 G3 16/1 S4 S5 UP

4.50 – Punkawallah  (4yo+ 5 yrs,all + micro TJC)  w2 w1 30 ES+ H3 G3 7/2 S3A S5  UP

 

Ripon 

2.20 –

Mon Beau Visage (micro runs/90 days) 16/1 

Poet’s Society (micro TJC) w1 H1 I3 13/2 S2 S6  UP

Storm Ahead (micro TJC) 8/1  UP

2.55 – Al Qahwa (micro runs/90 days) I1 G3 8/1 S2 S6 2nd 10/1 (agony, that’s sprints with hold up types..switched 2/3 times, winner first run, he wins cosily with a clear run, still, more positives than negs for S6 moving forwards) 

3.30 – 

My Reward (micro TJC) I1 6/1 S6 3rd 7/1 

Dominating (micro TJC) H1 I3  4/1 S2 UP

4.00 – 

Super Kid (micro TJC/Dist) 20/1 UP

Sofia’s Rock (micro TJC) H3 I3 5/1  UP

Grandee (micro runs/90 days) (trainer change) (handicap debut) G3  7/2  2nd 

 

Leicester- NONE 

Doncaster – NONE 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 22nd April 2018)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 22nd April 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 7/79,26p, +3.5)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +101.5)

NOTES

1.50 Sand – 

Ar Mest – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen)UP (pulled, far too keen still, needs to settle)

Equus Amadeus – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen) 3rd..decent run, no excuse, was upsides winner at the last, he’s clearly got bit more class/handled ground/pulled away, looks like C Gordon has a nice one on his hands also. 

One each from Section 1 and the Test zone here. Unlike most in this race they are unexposed, and these two make handicap hurdle debut. They both have some decent runs in the book and deserve to take their chance here. Both have been keen in the past and I think this race may be run to suit – big field /strong pace- plenty of front runners/pace pushers in this on paper. A strongly run race could see these two really step forward- that is the hope anyway. Clearly it is ultra competitive but i’ll side with these two, certainly Lacey owes us nothing and he again is in red hot form, and his handicap debutants can be backed blind.

That will be all for tips…. I won’t dabble on the flat today… interested to a point in Storm Ahead just because he is a T Easterby horse that’s had a run, and moves back down in trip. Has form at C2 level also, but a chance he is just out of form still and they won’t go fast enough. No ratings pointers to enthuse me either, I may have 1/4 point on to see but don’t want a full pint on and Poet’s is an S6 qualifier in the same race. A few strategy picks on the flat and we shall see how they go, all about the long term with them 🙂

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‘FESTIVAL’ TIPS

5.35 Punch

Karalee – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen) UP

Minella Beau – 1 point win – 33/1 (gen) UP

Turcaqua – 1 point win – 28/1 (gen) UP

Urudel – 1 point win – 22/1 (bet365) 20/1 (gen) 

 

I haven’t over-thought this given the stats/thinking below… we have +104.5 ‘festival points’ to play with and this will take us down to a decent enough +100.5 for the last 47 days or so from members Festival tips.. i considered going 1/2 point in each, but for the sake of an extra 2 points I thought sod it- i’d be more annoyed if one of those wins carrying just a 1/2 than losing the extra 2. I haven’t really looked at the horses in much depth…but they are all unexposed and doing something different- some stepping up in trip, others making handicap hurdle debut, and I didn’t want to over think jockey bookings… Willie does like throwing darts at this race but this years he appears to have thrown plenty, which may tell it’s own story. I can live with one of the two non Mullins trained horses winning from the shortlist of 6 given they are under 10/1. Early Doors is a worth fav I think on that Cheltenham run, which is probably the best handicap hurdle form going into this.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

3.00 Sand – Gods Own (m3/4) UP

3.35 Sand- Theatre Guide (m3/4) DNQ

R Hobson (33/1< guide)

1.50 Sand – Going Gold w2 UP

Tom Lacey 

1.50 Sand – Equus Amadeus (hncp debut) 3rd

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Punchestown Day 5

Micro Qualifiers

Mullins NHF : 6.10 Passageway

Mullins Handicappers: 3.10 -Some Neck

Target Trainers

3.50 – Jers Girl

5.00 – Fletchers Flyer

5.35 – Spades Are Trumps

 

‘Notes’:   I have run out of time today, sorry. report is here… REPORT HERE>>>>   if you wish to dig any out 🙂 I am just off out for brunch with a friend, but if I get time later, I will post up a list of horses in the comments, so keep an eye out there. 

 

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5.35 Punchestown: Grade B 2m4f Handicap Hurdle

10/10… top 3 at least once last three starts/had run at G3 level+/2+ career wins/ 0-2 wins this season… those four stats still leave 17.

9/10 carried 10-12 or less on back (exc claims)…last year’s winner carried more,and if they do so again, the horses to follow won’t be winning!

GB breds are 0/28,3p, PU LTO 0/21,op

Those stats leave just 6 horses… which may be viewed in the context that Meade is 0/12,0p in race, Elliot 0/10,0p, and Mullins…. 5/52,14p!! Four of the six below are trained by Mullins, the other two by, well, you guessed it…

Yaha Fizz (Elliot) / Joey Sasa (Meade) / Mullins…. Karalee / Minella Beau / Turcaqua / Urudel 

I’ll attempt to have a close look in the morning and see if I wish to ‘tip’ any. But, for £2s-£5s on these stats alone, and given how Mullins’ week is going, you could have something on the lot for fun.

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3.35 Sandown

I’m not sure how useful the trends are here, esp given recent races have been run on decent ground. They ‘could’ get plenty of rain tonight and as I type at 8.40 pm I have no idea what the ground could be.

Anyway, 10/10 had RUN over 3m2.5f or further in career. 8/1o had 0-2 handicap wins. Those stats leave 8/84 runners, 24p and leave…

BlackLion / Missed Approach / Bigbadjohn/ Sugar Baron / Rathin Rose / Domesday Book / Theatre Guide

Those that ran 4m3.5f+ LTO are 0/28,2p (The Grand National I think), and 8/10 ran 3m-3m2f LTO. Running 11-15 days ago is also a negative. Applying those would leave a tentative stats shortlist of 4:

Missed Approach / Sugar Baron / Domesday Book / Theatre Guide

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

31 Comments

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  • Inviolable Spirit Leicester Saturday 15:55 1pt e/w-Price taken 16/1-Looks a big price considering he was highly tried as a 2yr old racing in some of the best races (raced in 3 races worth £100k+). Would have needed it LTO but now down to 71 he could be potentially extremely well in. Having raced largely in class 2 races or better he drops back into a class 5 on the flat for the first time since his debut win. Half the field is making their re-appearance so he also has fitness on his side. Hanagan rides the track extremely well and has an excellent record when riding here for Fahey here. I thought 16s was too big.

    Nothing else from Leicester, Haydock, Doncaster or Wolves but will have a look at Ripon and Sandown in the morning given I wanted to be sure on the ground.

    Nick Mazur 27/04/18 10:07 PM Reply


    • Wallop!! well done.

      Josh 28/04/18 4:01 PM Reply


    • Thanks Nick. Great shout.

      Ken McKenzie 28/04/18 4:02 PM Reply


    • Good shout, had a play on your comments. Tom

      whitediamond 28/04/18 4:02 PM Reply


    • Awesome as always

      Warren Bottomley 28/04/18 4:07 PM Reply


    • Big thank you as per usual

      Aaron Lumsden 28/04/18 4:50 PM Reply


    • Thanks Nick saved the day took 16/1 last night.the only winner today..cheers mate
      ….William

      William Whitmore 28/04/18 5:52 PM Reply


    • Well done Nick, made the difference on a difficult day.

      NICK BRYANT 28/04/18 6:05 PM Reply


    • Well done Nick!

      Steve Cartwright 28/04/18 6:18 PM Reply


  • I don’t think there’s any rain around in Ripon judging from the forecasts, Sandown doesn’t look too bad either maybe the odd shower, looks like the heavy stuff comes in late Sunday.

    I was looking at Al Qahwa in the 2:55 at Ripon, can go well fresh and is back down to the weight he ran off when winning at York, I’m not sure he’ll like the track though so maybe I shouldn’t look any further!

    Chris Albin 27/04/18 11:17 PM Reply


  • just had a quick look through the card at Ripon and i also like the look of Al Qahwa but the one that really sparked my interest was Mirsaale in the 3-30 back on the flat after 5 wins hurdling will be race fit and good/soft should be perfect.

    martin whittle 28/04/18 7:01 AM Reply


  • This hasn’t quite panned out as expected…
    Hurdlers & bumpers at Punchy after a top 3 finish at the Cheltenham Festival LTO yesterday :

    5.30 : Melon – fell 3 out
    5.30 : Samcro – fell 3 out

    I didn’t expect that!

    Today :

    3.50 :
    Apples Jade
    Benie Des Dieux
    Midnight Tour

    4.25 :
    Farclas
    Mr Adjudicator

    5.35 :
    Early Doors

    No Early Season Maiden qualifiers today

    traf69 28/04/18 7:48 AM Reply


  • Terrible form at present, hopefully Saturday can get me back on the straight and narrow..
    15:35 Sandown
    SUGAR BARON 12/1 gen 1 ew
    Sugar Baron finished 7th in this last year but was beaten just 2 1/2 lengths. His 2 other runs at Sandown have yielded a 2nd behind Benbens (closing all the way to the line) and a fall in his novice campaign (still held every chance). You can probably ignore his most recent start on soft ground at Cheltenham which wouldn’t have suited.
    THEATRE GUIDE 33/1 gen 1 ew
    I was debating which of the Tizzard runners to back here and maybe I have picked the wrong one, but, my reasoning is that he finished 3rd here last year in this race off a 3lb higher mark, plus he has fallen a bit in the weights, he also has the enigmatic Paddy Brennan on board, who knows, something in my gut says don`t give up on them just yet…

    17:00 Punchestown
    FOREVER GOLD 17/2 gen 1 ew
    Lost nothing in defeat when finishing 3rd in the Irish National last month and with ground conditions going his way has every chance.
    POORMANS HILL 14/1 gen 1 ew
    This horse has a very progressive profile and it’s only 2 flops this year can be put down to the extreme ground. On one occasion only 6 of the 16 finished and on the other 8 of 15. The 3 other runs all resulted in wins though and the ground here will be much more suitable. Significantly, the horses most impressive effort was the first time it was stepped up to 3m4f so this 3m6f trip should be ideal.

    17:35 Punchestown
    KARALEE 14/1 365 1 ew
    A speculative choice but she has the ability to at least make the frame. The move up to 2 mile 4 furlongs will be in her favour, and in an open contest could spring a surprise.
    C`EST JERSEY 50/1 gen 1 ew
    Half the 28 runner field are trained by Willie Mullins here and this 50/1 shot looks to have been hugely underestimated in the market given that the horse is a c&d winner on the same ground off just a 5lb lower mark when making just its 5th start. That was from the runner up in the Cheltenham Bumper that season (Battleford). Mullins won this last year with a 20/1 shot so clearly can get winners from any jockey in the pecking order, so, this horse could surprise back on its favoured ground.

    Stewart 28/04/18 7:52 AM Reply


    • Can`t have a winner for love nor money, thought i had it there, C`est Jersey jumped like a stag all way round!! Back to the drawing board.

      Stewart 28/04/18 5:51 PM Reply


      • stewart no worries its hard enough to come up with 6-1 winners let alone 50/1 longshots for second . did well you will get one soon enough

        good handicapping

        krishna 29/04/18 9:14 PM Reply


  • Four wild pokes in the big one…

    https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2018/04/27/free-daily-post-28-04-18-hold/

    Josh

    Josh 28/04/18 9:41 AM Reply


  • Inviolable Spirit Leicester Saturday 15:55 1pt e/w-See above (has halved in price)

    Wolf Of Windlesham Sandown 17:15 1pt e/w-Price taken 12/1 4p and 11/1 5p-Looks extremely well treated on past form given he is 5lbs lower than when winning at this meeting 2 years ago as well as running good races in the Greatwood and Wessex later that year. That was as a four year old so there is every chance he has improved and fairly certain this will have been the plan. Edmunds had a winner yesterday and most of his have ran well and unless he bounces I expect him to go well.

    Minella Daddy Sandown 15:35 Price taken 10/1 6p and 11/1 5p 1pt e/w-Another who looks well treated on old form but ran a solid race at Ascot 2 starts ago. Is much better going right handed and Bowen junior takes off a very handy 3lbs. Trainer took this last year and is in brilliant form with 4 winners and a 2nd from their last 6 runners. He was touted as a National horse so i do think he will stay particularly with the ground not being too soft.

    Frank Bridge Ripon 14:20 1pt e/w-Price taken 14-12/1-Stands out like a sore thumb on GGG instant expert and looked over priced. Has a good draw and conditions spot on. Trainer doesn’t send many here which I thought was interesting but is another stable in solid form and thought he would outrun his odds

    Nameitwhatyoulike Ripon 14:55 1pt e/w-Price taken 11/1-Looks extremely solid in a field where so many have questions. Loves it here and has won twice and placed 8 times from 10 runs over course and distance. Has also ran well fresh on his last 3 starts. Smart is in great form with 2 winners and 2 seconds from his last 7 starts. Hopefully he can lead from pillar to post and I would be disappointed if he was out of the frame.

    Nick Mazur 28/04/18 10:00 AM Reply


    • Forgot to say but have chucked a tenner on the exchanges on Royal Vacation given I thought his profile (been kept over hurdles, change of headgear, down to a very low mark, still only 8) was interesting at a big price even . Also forgot to mention above but they put the blinkers back on Minella Daddy for the first time this season which will make a world of difference.

      Nick Mazur 28/04/18 10:14 AM Reply


      • Well done Nick on an excellent day. Since I have joined here you seem to be smashing it just like Josh. Do you keep a record of your P+L, if so how have the last 12/18 months faired?

        Chris Sengelow 28/04/18 7:01 PM Reply


      • Another nice winner Nick and a bit unlucky with the Wolf. Jock looked like he knew what he had under him, but the winner got first run and clearly has ability. Both pulled clear of the rest impressively.

        Chris R.

        broadsword 28/04/18 8:08 PM Reply


  • Just can’t bring myself to bet on the joke Punchestown festival, It can’t be right that a trainer is allowed 7,8, 9 or 10 or more runners in a race let alone when two trainers do it. Just seems ridiculous to me, I would of thought other trainers don’t even bother entering horses on that basis. I get it that these races are for the best horses and two trainers own the majority of them but it just ruins it for me.

    Chris Albin 28/04/18 10:46 AM Reply


    • I enjoyed it and must go one year. I did back a few winners, some I put up on here, The Storyteller and Dortmund Park, and that may cloud my thinking. If you limit them to 3 or 4 runners per race you dilute the value in the market. It is the same with Aiden O’Brien on the flat.

      martin colwell 28/04/18 11:11 AM Reply


      • It does seem wrong that there are races with 15 – 16 runners and only one or two are not from the big two to me. if the owners are spending their money then they have the say and where would racing be without owners eh? It is a shame that in Ireland more so than over here that the focus seems to be on the biggest two yards for nearly every race at the Irish festivals. The owners obviously have their reasons for not supporting other trainers or trying to build them up to a point where they can add competition to the big two, maybe the trainer/owner ratio is much smaller in Ireland I don’t know.

        Chris Albin 28/04/18 12:12 PM Reply


  • Uradel a non runner Josh.

    Paul Ebrey 28/04/18 10:58 AM Reply


    • well that’s 1 point saved! 🙂

      Josh 28/04/18 11:04 AM Reply


  • Spirit of Zebedee in the first at Ripon looks worth an e/w. I’m a big believer in trainer targets especially in 2 year old races. The trainer has had the first and second places in last 2 running’s of this race. Also had a winner yesterday so string are in good form. Probert is 1 from 2 riding for Barron. I’ve gone 1pt e/w

    James P 28/04/18 12:02 PM Reply


  • Tips – We had 2 winners yesterday and made 15 points, so we are now +8.75 points for April> I am not including Dortmund Park who won at 14/1, as I put him up later. Today I go with 3.35 SP Dawson City, 1pt each way at 40/1+ in parts. I think that he will like the course and the distance and will be OK on the ground as it is now. Also in the 5.15 SP I like Stowaway Magic 1 pt each way at 7/1 ish. I think he can come on again at this time of year and take this.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 28/04/18 12:06 PM Reply


  • Poor day yesterday with Wicklow Brave giving some return on a reduced place, maybe only received by the two fav for the race falling. Few small bets today as I can’t find value on the horses that interest me. Plus the runner I had my eye on in the 3:50 Punch was just declared a NR.

    2:05 Haydock – Lualiwa (6/1 gen) 0.5pt EW (4p with Coral)
    Confident win at Musselburgh and even with 7lb rise which is a tad harsh, he needs to be considered today. Won three times during a progressive 3yo campaign last year so he will be looking to continue that form today. Robero is one who could feauture, low draw and conditions suit. Has been progressive lately so be interesting to see how he goes. (Mijack is the only other I considered but can’t find value in him)
    Mention: Robero (10/1 gen) 0.5pt EW

    4:50 Haydock – Rainbow Rebel (6/1 gen) 0.5pt EW
    Won last time out at Newcastle and is only 2lb higher from that win, back on turf but conditions suit. Royal Shaheen is only 1lb up from the last winning mark over the same trip, at 25/1 I am inclined to stick something on him.
    Mention: Royal Shaheen (25/1 gen) small stake EW (£1)

    That’s all today

    Chris M 28/04/18 12:07 PM Reply


  • Midnight Wilde 7:15 Don 9.1 good chance to win that poor handicap

    Pab777 28/04/18 1:16 PM Reply


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