Free Daily Post: 28/04/18 (complete)

TIPS

3.35 Sandown

Sugar Baron – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen) UP

Regal Encore – 1 point win – 18/1 (gen) UP

Relentless Dreamer – 1 point win – 33/1 (gen) 4th 

Domesday Book – 1 point win – 50/1 (gen) (70.00 BF exchange) UP

Ah, nothing doing today…that was softer than I predicted… given conditions Relentless Dreamer has ran a cracker there and looks to have a decent staying pot in him on better ground. Regal Encore travelled really well for a long way, before doing a Regal Encore! As per write up below the winner was the most interesting, profile wise, by a mile… I wasn’t going to tip him at 7s and taking horses on at those odds in races like that is why we are where we are. I didn’t have anything on sadly. He was 10s I think early morning but I missed that. Pleased enough with how I read it/him, but -4 at the end of the day! On we go. No idea when the next official jumps tip may be on free posts. 

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The final big ‘festival type’ handicap chase of the season… i’m attempting to add to recent handicap hncp chase winners since day 1 of ‘The ‘ Festival, inc Close Brothers Novice 9s/Kim Muir 12s/Midlands National 25s/Irish National 33s /Topham Chase 16s/Scottish National 40s /Puch Lady Francis Mares Chase 8s / + about 7 C2+ hncp chases I haven’t found winner of in that time 🙂

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My long list… the four selections.. Step Back (too short) / Rock The Kasbah (too short given form/beat in this before) / Missed Approach (too short/RH/Class/hncp mark a question) / and the two Tizzard horses which are lurkers, Theatre Guide (beat in this twice,can’t see why would win now given current form etc) Royal Vacation (don’t think he really stays 3m, had doubts, form iffy but run over hurdles last twice which is intriguing)

I probably haven’t mentioned the winner! This race has a very odd feel where nothing would totally surprise me…you’d look post race and go, yep, I can make a case for him!

some stats…

10/10 had RUN over 3m2.5f or further in career. 8/1o had 0-2 handicap wins. Those stats leave 8/84 runners, 24p and leave…

BlackLion / Missed Approach / Bigbadjohn/ Sugar Baron / Rathin Rose / Domesday Book / Theatre Guide

Those that ran 4m3.5f+ LTO are 0/28,2p (The Grand National I think), and 8/10 ran 3m-3m2f LTO. Running 11-15 days ago is also a negative. Applying those would leave a tentative stats shortlist of 4:

Missed Approach / Sugar Baron / Domesday Book / Theatre Guide

I am running out of time this morning, should have got up at 7 and not 8, what with plenty of action in the Members’ post also. I spent a good hour and a half staring at this and my pins landed on these four.

Sugar Baron…well he is on the stats shortlist above and he rarely runs a bad race here… I tipped him at Cheltenham which was a risk and on the soft ground he was never at the races – he can jump ‘like a piano’ at times! Nico has raced him more prominently around here before and I hope they do so again. IF he can hold a position and he jumps well (two big big IFs) he won’t be far away at the death here and will be staying on up the hill. There is a chance they go quick enough here and some may fall in a hole. At 14s, I just couldn’t leave him. One last go. (i think I tipped him in last year’s Scottish National also, so, i’ll be at the bottom of the cliff after this race if he doesn’t win)

Domesday Book..well he’s had a tendon injury, and comes here after a monster lay-off. He will probably need the run, he may not be good enough….but he races prominently, is a Festival winner, and is still lightly raced. And he was 50s – given his place on the stats shortlist above I wasn’t going to over-think that really! It is a hopeful pick but I just hope they have him as fit as possible, as he will give me a good spin if so…and provided he is over that injury, it is very hard to come back from ‘a leg’ as they call it in the trade! (so i’ve heard)

Regal Encore… he is best right handed and I want to see him over this distance. He ran a cracker in the ‘Hennessy’ and if he were to repeat that run he would be right in the mix here. He could win, he could be tailed off after 4 fences, who knows! But he has a touch of class at his best and this race could set up for him. Richie can ride him prominently and if he could get a position on the inside, popping away ,and he isn’t too far back at the Pond fence, i’m fairly sure he will stay on up this hill. He does find for pressure when on a going day, and maybe some compensation awaits for having to miss the Grand National (i think his blood was wrong, but not 100%) – it could be a blessing in disguise.

Relentless Dreamer…maybe I am in dreamland, sticking with the same trainer/jockey combo that did so well for us last week in the big one. Right handed/good ground appears to be his thing and he has run the odd race over an extended trip. He can race prominently and I just wanted to see what he could do going RH/Good to Soft/3m4f+… that combination ‘could’ see him build on previous chase efforts and leave behind what he has done in the past, which is still decent anyway. It could be that this track also suits him. Hopefully he can nab a prominent position, get into a rhythm and gallop…we shall see turning for home  if he a) has the class and b) has the stamina. At a price I thought he looked interesting.

I did note, that in the last 7 renewals of this, 7 horses have returned after 60+ days off… 4 of them have placed and gone very close to winning. No doubt there will be some crappy stats flying about around ‘no horse has won this after more than X days off’ – well, they mean nothing without the context of how many runners/placed horses…and 0/7,4p in the last 7 years…well, there is no reason to be put off there! (and trainers in recent years are much more adept at readying horses at home than they were 10 years ago, and are more willing to do so before a big race target)

There is every chance that i haven’t mentioned the winner, we all know that!  I looked at Theatre Guide and Royal Vacation but talked myself out of them…I may have £2.50 on each at BFSP to claw something back just in case- those are the two at prices I would find most annoying were one to bounce back to life here. The former has had a couple of goes in this race and I convinced myself that the latter won’t stay.

I can live with any horse winning this under/around 10/1 really…this felt a very strange renewal and I wanted some at prices onside. Step Back has the most facinating profile in this by some way but it is quite the step up from his C4 race around Fakenham LTO and I wanted to see some 26f form at that price. The run before that here was ok.  But he is interesting and one to track moving forward as he ‘could be anything’ – he brings something different to the table here, given he is up against plenty of old/tired/seemingly out of form warriors. Minella Daddy is interesting for last year’s winning trainer- I wasn’t convinced on stamina in context of price, but if he stays he will go close…in theory if Regal Encore runs his race these two should be side by side! Rock The Kasbah- didn’t seem to stay in this last year and comes here on the back of a P, and 98 days off…ok if 20s+ maybe, not at 10s/11s for me.

I could go through them all, but I won’t. Any horse could win this and I wouldn’t be in total shock in truth! Something will bounce back to life on this decent ground and whatever wins I will look back after the race and muse ‘well, I could have found him’! (but then I do that with every winner of races I tip in that are a ‘value’ price! It’s the only way to progress)

GL with any bets.

Josh

 

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

10 Comments

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  • You drink as much beer as you want mate .You deserve it .

    James 27/04/18 7:33 PM Reply


  • ITV7.
    Race 1: 13:50 Sandown
    17 Ar Mest
    T: G L Moore J: J E Moore
    Race 2: 14:05 Haydock
    4 Calder Prince
    T: Tom Dascombe J: R Kingscote
    Race 3: 14:25 Sandown
    1 Top Notch
    T: N J Henderson J: D A Jacob
    Race 4: 14:45 Leicester
    7 Kimberella
    T: R A Fahey J: P Hanagan
    Race 5: 15:00 Sandown
    1 Altior
    T: N J Henderson J: Nico de Boinville
    Race 6: 15:20 Leicester
    2 King’s Proctor
    T: M Johnston J: R L Moore
    Race 7: 15:35 Sandown
    14 Sugar Baron
    T: N J Henderson J: Nico de Boinville
    £1 bet on this 7 Fold returns £88,088 well we can all dream can’t we 🙂

    martin whittle 28/04/18 6:47 AM Reply


  • Dascombe day at Haydock.
    2.05 Calder Prince
    3.15 Fire Diamond
    3.45 Admiral Spice
    4.50 Punkawallah
    Singles and a yankee.

    Mike

    mickeydee 28/04/18 8:03 AM Reply


  • AW BETS
    After a quite spell a busy day just a reminder to have a bank 50 times your stake
    Wolverhampton
    5.25 Madrinho
    5.25 Tigerwolf
    5.25 Whitecrest
    6.30 Berlusca
    7.30 Be Perfect
    8.30 Big Amigo
    8.30 Thecornishman
    8.30 Sir Lancelott

    colin leafe 28/04/18 10:14 AM Reply


    • I Presume that thecornishbarron not man Colin?

      Nick Mazur 28/04/18 11:32 AM Reply


  • Well done Josh, for showing some really informative and interesting angles about the racing game. This is a smart forum and is a real good thing amidst the mire on the net. Keep it going. I’m a fan. Good luck.

    Peter Scott 28/04/18 10:29 AM Reply


  • Ripon, Leicester and Doncaster 28/04/18
    A really high risk day today where in each race there were a minimum of two likely candidates and contradictory stats. I have outlined my thought processes below and am confidently expecting a generous helping of egg all over my face come about 6pm when the last race has finished.
    Ripon 1.45
    Ratings
    1. Axel Jacklin
    2. Kinks, Broken Spear
    Ratings Bet 1pt Kinks.
    Mick Channon has the highest strike rate with 2yos here in the last 5 years, but Mark Johnston has had more 2yo winners here in the same period than Mick has had runners. Franny Norton has ridden 20 winners here in the same period to Charles Bishop’s 1. Tony Coyle and Barry McHugh have not trained or ridden a 2yo winner between them in the last five years at Ripon.
    I put Broken Spear up as my likely outsider for The Brocklesby but given that the form is only ordinary, and Tony Coyle does not seem to get his runners to develop much 2to I am thinking he will likely get beaten here.
    Kinks has collateral form with Broken Spear through Lihou who finished behind Broken Spear on debut, he also has to carry an extra 2lb. He looks a very tough customer and with the weakness of the Johnston debutant despite Bishop’s limited experience at Ripon I end up favouring Kinks.
    Leicester 2.15
    Ratings
    1. Barend Boy, True Mason
    2. Awake In Asia, Finoah, Marie’s Diamond
    Ratings Bet 1pt win Awake In Asia, 1/6pt Comb Exacta Barend Boy, True Mason, Awake In Asia
    This is not a course that Karl Burke targets with his 2yos and neither he nor Ben Curtis has ridden or trained a 2yo winner here in the last 5yrs. Despite all this with soft ground and being by Mayson costing £120k I don’t think he can be discarded.
    Awake In Asia caught a tartar on debut at Windsor. After that, I described him as a gross horse, ie hard to get fit but despite this gave him a 78, he ran on heavy and given Evans ability to bring his runners on from debut will be very hard to beat here probably needing a listed quality debutant to overcome him. Hugo Palmer has a 30% strike rate with 2yos here and has won this race a couple of times with his better ones. It would not be unlikely for something special to turn up and Barend Boy might be it.
    On top of this we have Tom Dascombe (poor record with 2yos here) and Mark Johnston with SDS up runners.
    It is going to be soft here and with Awake In Asia’s proven ability and experience he just shades it for me.
    Doncaster 5.45
    Ratings
    1. World Order, No Lippy
    Ratings Bet 1Pt Straight Forecast No Lippy. World Order.
    No Lippy perhaps has the best draw and J P McDonald has much more winning experience at Doncaster on 2yos which seems to be a more difficult course to ride than it looks.
    Hugh

    alpha2 28/04/18 11:13 AM Reply


    • Excellent work Hugh, first day I’ve missed them too but well done and hopefully a few got on the f/c exacta as well as the first winner

      Chris Mcilfatrick 28/04/18 9:38 PM Reply


  • Domsday is 0-4-5  FU not bad
    For sure he is fresh
    Somebody wrote me today Sandown is soft
    I will back him and Relentless Dreamer
    Who will win or unexposed maybe Young Master 12lb lower than his cd win 2 years ago
    or boring and short 10.1 MISSED APPROACH
    Dowson Citi looks good to me

    Pab777 28/04/18 1:10 PM Reply


  • AW BETS
    Well spotted Nick yes indeed in the
    8.30 it is Thecornishbarron

    colin leafe 28/04/18 1:17 PM Reply


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