Members Daily Post: 27/04/18 (comp)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

JUMPS

Towcester

5.40 – Gray’s Choice (all hncps) 5/1 UP

6.50 – Transpennine Star (m1) H3 I3 G3 4/1 S4 S1+S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP)

 

Chepstow

5.50 –

Lord Bryan (all hncps) w130ES+H1 I1 7/2 S3A   WON 2/1 (R4) 

Dauphine Ereine (m1) H3 I3 G3 4/1 S4 UP

7.35 – Call Carlo (hncp c) H3 I3 11/2  S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP)

 

Perth

3.45 – Petite Power (all hncps + hncp c + m1) H3 I3 7/1 UP

5.15 – Retrace (NHF) 9/1 UP

 

FLAT

Doncaster

5.35 – Granny Roz (micro age) H3 I3 5/1  WON 5/1>7/2 

 

Sandown 

NONE.

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 22nd April 2018)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 22nd April 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 7/77,25p, +5.5)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +104.5)

 

NOTES

4.20 Punch

Up For Review – 1 point win – 11/1 (bet365/BV) 10/1 (gen) UP

A Sizing Network – 1 point win – 11/1 (PP/BV/BefS) 10/1 (gen) 4th 

(Saver Kemboy WON 5/1>11/4 if you wish… I have used my stats research below as my ‘way in’, so will put them in the ‘notes’ horses pile, albeit they could equally be ‘festival tips’, but I haven’t bothered with any race trends… I think I will fall off my seat if one of these three doesn’t win this, and I suspect they may be the 1-2-3 all the way round, baring accidents…famous last words) (oh i have just looked… Jessie H or Willie have won 9 of the 11 renewals of this!!) 

Up For Review… well he fits the MO for a Mullins handicap winner here, as did Cadmium yesterday but alas I didn’t tip him! This horse has a touch of class, with decent efforts in G1 races. He could be anything tackling handicaps now and does have course form. I think David Mullins is an upgrade on Danny (cousin?) and I also liked the fact that he races prominently. The three mentioned like to get on with it and they could have this sewn up between them, provided they don’t all kill each other. They don’t have to lead, but i suspect one of them will with the other two not far away. I thought 11s seemed a bit big and if Townend had picked him he would be considerably shorter. There are showers around but I don’t think this will go on the heavy side and he could well improve for this much better ground – better than what he has been racing on anyway.

A Sizing Network…ticks the Jessie stats and is a bit more chase battle-hardened than the other two mentioned. That could count for plenty and if he can return to his form here in October when he sluiced up, he would be right in the mix. A combination of trip/ground may have caught him out in a ‘national’ LTO, only fading late into the race. We all know Jessie can ready  a chaser after an absence, especially when a target in mind (the ill-fated Our Duke, in the Irish National, Rock The World in the 2017 Grand Annual spring to mind) and yesterday many of her’s outran their odds. With any luck they may be about to spark into life. She has a great record in this race and at this meeting over this distance, in handicaps.

Dangers…well Kemboy is a danger and has been well found in the market… I won’t be shocked if he wins… he was keen the last day though (still hacked up so plenty of class no doubt), there is a question over his jumping in a big field IF he cannot race prominently, and there is a question over the trip/ground.. his form has been over further and in Heavy…it isn’t impossibly that he finds this happening a bit too quickly for him. Those are what people taking him on- that’s me- will be clinging to. He may answer all of those questions though and if he gets an easy lead, his extra stamina will be a bonus as they may not catch up. I can’t think the other two will be far away given their historic running patterns.

The Meade runner is interesting but…. 7s seems about right/not overly generous, given he has to prove stamina,has been held up (I don’t like HU chasers around here), and Meade is 0/12,2p in the race, 2/41 in Punchy hncp chases, 3/89 in all handicaps here. That makes 7s short to my eyes and i’d want bigger. Now he could relish the trip (many Giggy chasers want a stamina test) and the pace they go over it may help him to race more prominently…he comes here in form, but I didn’t like his odds in the context of the above. I won’t fall off my seat if he beats me but he won’t carry any of my money.

There are some other biggies on the stats pointers… maybe koshari is interesting but RR appears to have thrown a load of mud at this, hoping some may stick! Jockey bookings would suggest my eyes are focused on the right Mullins horses but this jockey did win on a handicap hurdler for Willie earlier in the week (assume she could do the very low weight) and she rode a winner yesterday. No forlorn hope given the profile.

I’m fairly bullish on the shortlist of three, and maybe the betting gods will take a dim view to such confidence. Time will tell.

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4.55 Punch

Magic Of Light – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen) WON 8/1>6/1 

Another horse from the Harrington stats and maybe I’m clutching at straws that it will all click today! This one is interesting having returned from 2 months off just 10 days ago. I assume that was to set her up for this. She is a prominent racer who could try and make all and she get’s first time CP which may make a difference. This drop back into a handicap should help and I thought this looked a weak enough race on paper. 8/1 seemed more than fair and fingers crossed she bounces out, travels, jumps and has this won before the last!

Given the stats pointers, Billy’s Hope and Elusive Ivy would be annoying winners…some sort of case an be made I suppose in what could be an open enough race, despite what appears a lack of overall quality. They both have plenty of questions to answer though and Power would have ridden BH I think if they thought he had the best chance, even with a Potts horse in the race- although i’m not 100% on whether he has to ride them, so that could be nonsense.

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Through the Card notes at the bottom of post now…

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

A Honeyball

7.55 Towc – Everlanes (m1, 10/1< guide)

UPDATE (late, posted 10.45) 

Paddy Brennan (14/1< SP)

2.40 P – Jennys Surprise (m1/34) 2nd

3.45 P – Petite Power (m3/4) UP

5.15 P – Jarveys Plate (m2) WON 7/2 

 

D McCain (14/1<)

5.40 T – Pinch Of Ginger (m2/3) UP

6.50 T – Volcanic (m2)

 

R Hobson (33/1< guide)

3.45 P – Chic Name WON 10/1>17/2 

5.15 P – Discko Des Plages UP

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Handicap Chase ‘System’ (starting points) (10/1< best)

3.45 P – Onderun 3rd

7.35 C – Here’s My Number

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Punchestown Day 4

REPORT HERE>>>> 

(there will be no Festival tips/trends races on Day 4 – no handicap hurdles..there is one on Sat…)

‘Micro Qualifiers’ 

Jessie H Handicappers

4.55 – Billys Hope

Mullins Handicaps

4.20 – Koshari / Up For Review

‘Target Trainers’

4.55 – Elusive Ivy

 

‘Notes’ (hitting at least one bullet point from report)

4.20

Up for review / Koshari / Montalbano

Tombstone / De Plotting Shed /Squouateur

A Sizing Network / Close Shave (JH 3/5 in novice hncp c at meeting,5yrs)

4.55 –

Magic Of Light / Billy’s Hope

Synopsis / Goodthynemilan

5.30 – Melon / Supasundae

7.10 –

Another Barney / Whisperinthebreeeze / The Holy One

Roaring Bull / Vengeful / Kuraka

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‘Through The Card’... two of you have got in touch…one off to Perth and the other Towcester…

Towcester (for Matt) …  (no thoughts on Perth bar the Highland National…ran out of time, sorry Mike!)

 

Notes (starting points etc etc, usual caveats)

all discussed in the video… inc odd biggie not mentioned below…

4.40 – Totterdown

5.40 – Bertie Barnes / Georgian Firebird

6.15 – Indian Native / (saver Atalanta Blaze)

6.50 – Transpennine Start / Bandon Roc

7.20 – Brendon Hill Lad / Fight Commander

7.55- Miss Heritage / Deadringerforlove

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

35 Comments

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  • Highlands National Tip x1….
    https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2018/04/26/free-daily-post-27-04-18-tipx1/

    (Onderun, 1 point win, 10/1)

    Josh

    Josh 26/04/18 7:33 PM Reply


  • josh,345 perth for petite power

    william 26/04/18 7:46 PM Reply


    • Just testing you William! 🙂 Cheers.

      Josh 26/04/18 7:50 PM Reply


  • Nice winner with A Great View Josh, got up by a flared nostril!

    martin colwell 26/04/18 7:58 PM Reply


    • cheers… amazing how many close finishes i’ve had in the big races! prob not a short head between Irish/Scottish and that winner! Madness. Hopefully not using up all my luck, I have been caught in the shadows of the post a few times recently, esp with the ‘notes’ horses which i still can’t seem to get firing just yet. It will come. I’d take a +2.5 point profit everyday!
      Josh

      Josh 26/04/18 8:12 PM Reply


  • Memories Galore Doncaster Friday 16:25 1pt e/w
    Captain Jack Chepstow Friday 17:20 1pt e/w

    Nick Mazur 26/04/18 10:25 PM Reply


    • Got 20/1 on Memories and 11/1-12/1 on the other.

      neilmck 26/04/18 10:35 PM Reply


    • Nick, Captain Jack is a non-runner

      Jim 27/04/18 9:24 AM Reply


  • Global Thrill 5:20 Chep 1pt ew
    Didn’t like heavy going couple if weeks ago. Should fare better.

    Khafoo Shememi 3:35 Bet365 Mile
    14s 1pt ew
    Hannon going great guns, Ryan Moore on board gotta have a go

    Darren 26/04/18 11:31 PM Reply


  • Well done Josh,now if you can give us the winner of the Big Chase on Saturday you can bow out in style.

    Roger Fell is a relatively new trainer having taken out his licence in 2016,has been knocking in the winners at big prices during the winter,haven’t managed to get my arrow on the bulls eye as of yet.Is in good current form and has a good record in 4yo+ races at Doncaster 4-16 for +40.Tony Hamilton has ridden most of his winners.Has 3 running tomorrow
    2.15 Presidental
    2.50 Fishers Green(long layoff)
    4.25 Memories Galore
    The prices allow a stab at all 3 but Memories Galore at 20/1 could be the best of them,has been running in more valuable races than the one he is contesting tomorrow albeit on the aw.His sole turf win was on good ground might be a slight worry but has finished 2nd but at 20+ you only have to get them right now and again

    gearoid180468 26/04/18 11:51 PM Reply


  • Must put one in net today…
    16:25 Doncaster
    SIGNORE PICCOLO 9/1 gen
    Returned to form when third of 15 in handicap at Nottingham on final start in 2017. On a good mark if able to back that up on his return. He goes well fresh and Paul Hangan has a 50% strike rate for David Loughnane.
    OH SO SASSY 16/1 gen
    Does well at this track and her only win was here, dropped down weights and if sparking today ,could go in at a nice price!

    Good luck with all you back today!

    Stewart 27/04/18 8:23 AM Reply


  • Hurdlers & bumpers at Punchy after a top 3 finish at the Cheltenham Festival LTO yesterday :

    5.30 – Penhill 2nd
    6.05 – Glenloe 5th

    Today :
    5.30 : Melon
    5.30 : Samcro

    No Early Season Maiden qualifiers today

    traf69 27/04/18 9:18 AM Reply


  • FREE post…
    I have added one more to Highland National… so we have…
    Onderun – 1 point win 10/1
    Lowanbehold 1 point win 12/1

    https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2018/04/26/free-daily-post-27-04-18-tipx1/

    Josh

    Josh 27/04/18 9:55 AM Reply


  • With Captain Jack a nr (after halving in price!) decided to stick £5 e/w on Way Out West in the same race who I am convinced is extremely well treated (horse behind him off level weights LTO won at Perth this week beating 2 horses in the 130s in a novice hurdle and several others have won since) but not sure about the break even if I think ground will be okay which was the other unknown.

    Nick Mazur 27/04/18 10:16 AM Reply


  • Appreciate that Josh thanks for taking the time out of your already busy schedule, here’s to a good day

    thisisjonnoo 27/04/18 10:30 AM Reply


  • Did you forget to put up the Brennan and McCain qualifiers Josh, or is it not something you do every day?

    Michael Simms 27/04/18 10:38 AM Reply


    • Nope, I have simply not checked the qualifiers in my second HRB account, for what is probably the first time in 8 months!! It was a busy morning, a brain fade.. hold on a moment! Cheers

      Josh 27/04/18 10:40 AM Reply


      • No problem, so many plates spinning something’s bound to fall.

        Michael Simms 27/04/18 10:48 AM Reply


        • Yep, still annoying but that is where many eyes are useful. Crazy jumps Festival period will soon be over mind, which will help!
          Section 1 is obviously the main constant, and so is any angle being followed in test zone, so if you never see them then you know I have missed something etc, and do shout.
          Josh

          Josh 27/04/18 10:52 AM Reply


  • Poor yesterday as both selections did not run well. On to today.

    3:15 Perth – Le Braye (11/2 gen) 1pt WIN
    Got first win under rules LTO over 3m on Wednesday, took a 7lb penalty for that win but has a nice step back in trip which should be welcomed. Main reason for the selection is he hits a system I have on NH quick returners which has been performing very well. Looking through his form I can see him going close again today.

    2:15 Doncaster – Kirkam (10/1 gen) 1pt EW (4p with lads/coral)
    Got a nice win back at Thirsk over 7f and followed that up with a nice place in a 7.5f in the soft LTO. Has had a 2lb raise from those races but the main concern is if he is ready to go after a 7 month break, I will give him a chance as if he is fit he has every chance.
    Mention: Jessinamillion 0.5pt EW (16/1 Coral)

    Looking at 2 races and Punchestown so may post later

    Chris M 27/04/18 10:40 AM Reply


    • One more from Punchestown:

      5:30 – Wicklow Brave (12/1 gen) 0.5pt EW
      Coquin Mans (20/1 Coral/WH) 0.5pt EW
      WB; Won this last year and if he puts a strong performance in he could figure at the end. Beaten by some way LTO at Cheltenham but that was his first run since Nov in the Melbourne Cup. Has a chance today.
      CM; Won 4 of his 7 hurdle runs and has all but featured in every race apart from one slip up. He may be outclassed today but the current odds I am willing to take that risk as he does have the ability.

      Really Samcro or Melon should be winning this but outside the top 2 I think these 2 have the best chance.

      Chris M 27/04/18 11:10 AM Reply


      • How do you think Wicklow Brave will be ridden? Best chance to go off in the lead and run the legs off the others? Or pick up the pieces from behind? Worth a go each way. In the race after, 6.05 Dortmund Park is a reasonable each way price.

        martin colwell 27/04/18 2:35 PM Reply


  • Tips – I lost 4 points yesterday. La Bague Au Roi faded out of his race when push came to shove as did Southfield Theatre. I am now minus 6.25 points for April and staring relegation in the face! It is good that I back the tips of others for profit than my own.
    Today I will put up 2.40 PER Ron’s Dream, 2 points win at 2/1 BOG. Yesterday I missed the two Bowen winners, who had made the very long journey from West Wales to Perth. Ron is his only runner today and so have to go with him. My other selection is 1.50 SP, Merlin Magic, as he fits the race trends profile and at 11/2 is worth 2 points win to put it up to the Gosden favourite.

    Good Luck.

    martin colwell 27/04/18 12:06 PM Reply


  • Warrior’s Spirit – 2.15 Doncaster 1pt Win 6/1
    Looks an interesting runner on first start for D O’Meara. WS beat Crystal Ocean in a maiden on GS over 7f back in Sep 16 (now rated 118, 2nd in St Ledger etc). WS runs in class 5 0-70 today after string off poor runs for R Hannon in 2017. DO’M has decent record with new recruits so hopeful of a good run!

    Paddy H 27/04/18 12:08 PM Reply


  • Petite Power Perth Friday 15:45 1pt e/w-Price taken 10/1-9/1-Well I just couldn’t leave this one unbacked given its now out to 10s having been half the price last night. Fergal has consistently targeted this meeting in the past 2 years and has excellent stats at Perth overall particularly with Paddy on board. The horse is up a further 5lbs but hasn’t been far away on his last 2 starts over these marathon trips. He hasn’t been overly raced and I think this will have likely been the plan.

    Nick Mazur 27/04/18 12:29 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh
    Wife and I going to wetherby on Sunday so any help with the card would be much appreciated
    Mark

    Mark Newson 27/04/18 1:34 PM Reply


    • I’ll see what i can do Mark, but won’t promise anything, i don’t like doing much work on Sunday’s 🙂 (and am out Saturday evening) There are not any trainer stats of note, i know that much having just looked at pulling the stats profile together- well, there are none. So, no ways in there. I’ll have a flick through, no doubt there will be the odd horse of interest flying around the comments etc!

      Josh 27/04/18 1:41 PM Reply


  • Afternoon Josh

    Will you be going through the Sandown card for tomorrow? AS I’m going and would appreciate your opinion.
    Ta

    Jim

    Jim 27/04/18 2:28 PM Reply


    • Well the big chase will get the treatment! 🙂 as I write I couldn’t tell you what else I have planned. I’ll see what i can do.
      Josh

      Josh 27/04/18 2:42 PM Reply


      • Ta, the 1.50 looks like a puzzle to solve!

        Jim 27/04/18 3:04 PM Reply


        • haha…anyone would think you know the combination of words to use to get me to look at something!! 🙂

          Josh 27/04/18 3:22 PM Reply


          • The 5.15 too, has our old friend Jester the Jet running!!

            Jim 27/04/18 3:29 PM Reply


  • Nice one Josh, great fight back there after being headed

    Chris Mcilfatrick 27/04/18 5:07 PM Reply


    • cheers. Yep stamina has won that to a point, but also the ride…these mares can be funny and like to do things on own terms..headgear has helped but he has cajoled her when headed, not got properly stuck in, and then she has started to respond. She may have downed tools with a different ride, but clearly a bit in hand for a handicap, job done.

      Josh 27/04/18 5:11 PM Reply


  • HI Josh. Saved the day. Again! Thanks a lot.

    jc3152 27/04/18 7:06 PM Reply


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