Free Daily Post: 27/04/18 (TIPx2/Comp)

TIPS

3.45 Perth 

Onderun – 1 point win – 10/1 (gen) 3rd 10/1

Lowanbehold – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen) UP

*ah, no excuse there…Onderun got the easy lead as expected, he bumped into one with a bit more class there, younger, more progressive, who left that PU behind him LTO, and proved he stayed. I wasn’t near him in truth! So work to do there..clearly has a touch of class and has got it all together at this lower level. Jockey was 1/55 or so under rules and 6th chase ride of his life, so well done to him, wise beyond his years. With his 10lb mine was still receiving a stone or so, no complaints there. A run for my money right until near the end. Lowanbehold may still be running! 

These are the only two horses in here whose prices seems a bit off to me- 10s seems generous for Onderun, especially given that he bolted up LTO, comes here fit, in good form, jumps for fun (well he did the last day) and races on the pace. I thought that was a shade too big. Formerly with Emma Lavelle he bounced back to form LTO for new connections. The Bewley’s had been in the doldrums for an age – months and months without a winner, nothing running well. I suspect they’d had virus issue or something was up. They are going better now. This one got better the further he went LTO. He has won off a mark of 107 before, and gone close off 115. Jumping and stamina can matter more than handicap marks in tests like this. It is an educated guess as to whether he stays, but his staying on run at Plumpton over 28f and other bits and pieces would give some hope. I expect JB to bounce him out in front and from the pace maps I can see he could get an easy lead. In any case he will be front rank. My instinct was that 10s was well worth a play here. He has the class for this level and if he jumps as he did LTO, he could be the one they have to catch. He finished the last day strongly, so i’d like to think this 10 day return is ok. There is a chance he bombs out but I suspect he may be bouncing again and connections want to make hay, while the Perth sun is shining. (or not, I think they are due rain!)

Lowanbehold…well he hasn’t really done anything wrong and 12/1 seems a tad harsh to my eyes. He generally tries and is consistent. He also relishes a marathon test it would seem and comes here fit and in form. He stayed on dourly at Hexam over 4m in November and stamina won him the race LTO. This looks an ideal test for him and if he can get a prominent position and hold it, he will keep finding/galloping on. I’d worry about him on decent ground around here but this should be ok. There is a chance he gets outpaced, even over this trip, which will then lead to errors, but that is built into the price. Worth a dabble at those odds.

Of the rest, well i’ll just mention Ballymalin…. who could win this well and maybe worth a saver but 7/2 felt about right. He is usually help up and had a hard race LTO. He may have had enough time off though to recover and the trainer’s horses are going well here this week. He does have to lug around 11-12 and i’m sure he isn’t the biggest. He has an obvious chance on that last run and the odds compilers haven’t missed it. Oh and top weights, 11-12, are 0/22,3p in this, so he has that against him.

I was happy to leave everything else. Itstimeforapint stays and stays, if this turns into a proper slog, but he can get outpaced, is inconsistent, and does have a question about his ability at C3, albeit the odd decent placed effort. If he can hold a position, and is evidently travelling well, he may do for me, but i prefer the two tipped…these three are the most interesting at the odds.

That’s the lot for today,

GL with any bets,

Josh

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4 Comments

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  • J Bewley will have to put up abt 5lb overweight?

    chrisrees 26/04/18 8:48 PM Reply


    • Will have to? His lowest weight in last 12 months is 10-2, so I assume he will get down to that? So be 2lb over. Horse was 4lb out of handicap, 3lb claim helps… so 1lb out say, plus the 2lb? so 3lb? It won’t make a difference either way, if he loses it won’t be down to that extra 5lb, not over this trip/ground… jumping more important and possibly the actual weight on his back, which is nothing. We shall see!
      Josh

      Josh 26/04/18 8:54 PM Reply


  • Josh just wondered if you had any views on petite power 3.45 perth

    paul bailey 27/04/18 1:03 PM Reply


    • Well I did at 6/7 /1,… that price felt about right/not overly generous. 10s+ is a slightly different matter and that may feel a tad too big… I worry about his running style if they hold him up, around here, which they may do to get the trip…i’m not 100% convinced as to his stamina for this trip in soft or worse, but if he’s going to get it, it will be around here. He is high in the weights/actual weight for a marathon test, has fitness to prove (although FOB can ready one), and his mark keeps going up without winning. I can’t say he is well handicapped. But, he is unexposed over marathon trips. Those are the reasons I was put off at 6s or so. 10s+ may be different but i’m not sure that drift is a positive given his profile/the yard. I wont be shocked if he wins. At 10s you can overlook most of those niggles I had! My money is down on those two above, even if he were 10s this morning i’m not 100% sure i’d have tipped him for a point, but if you have a saver etc, prob better being him than the fav. I won’t be putting anyone off him, and i’m wrong 8.5 times out of 10 or so!
      Josh

      Josh 27/04/18 1:15 PM Reply


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