Members Daily Post: 25/04/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

JUMPS 

Taunton

7.10 – Double Accord (hncp h)  8/1

 

Perth (Summer)

3.10 – Brandon Hill (hncp c) I3 7/2  UP

4.15 – Teddy Tea (nov hncps) G1 9/2 UP

 

FLAT

Catterick

1.50 –

Kibaar (micro TJC/Dist) G3 14/1 UP 5/1 

Pavers Pride (micro dist) I3 12/1 UP

3.30 –

Tewafeedj (all hncps + micro age) 10/1 UP

Munthany (micro TJC) 12/1 UP

Clemento (micro TJC) 17/2 3rd 12/1

4.05 –

Regal Mirage (micro TJC) I3 G3 8/1 UP

Wotabreez (micro TJC) 5/1 UP

5.10 –

Right Action (all hncps + 4yo+) w1 H3 G3 11/2 S5 WON 6/1 

Reputation (micro TJC) G3 16/1 UP

Magical Effect (micro TJC) H3 I3 8/1 UP 

Parys Mountain (micro TJC) 16/1 UP

5.40 – La Sioux (all hncps + 4yo+ hncp) 11/1 UP 11/1>25/1!

 

Epsom

3.20 – Lorelina (all hncps + 4yo+ hncp) 10/1 UP

3.55 – Contango (all hncps + 4yo+) w2 H3 G3  6/1 S5 UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to end 22nd April 2018)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 22nd April 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 6/68,24p, +5.5)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +99)

 

NOTES

3.30 Cat – Clemento – 1 point win – 7/1 (gen) 3rd 12/1

5.10 Cat – Magical Effect – 1 point win 15/2 (gen) UP, no effort to tuck in, game over, 4-6 wide all the way round into straight…the winner was drawn on his outside, although admittedly races more prominently 

5.40 Cat – La Sioux – 1 point win – 10/1 (gen) UP 10/1>25/1

 

 

Clemento… this one is in the unexposed/could be anything category, the sort where I want at least 13/2+. He comes here fit which is a bonus, on his second run of the season and second run for the yard. He ran a couple of promising races for Roger Charlton , indicating he has some ability. He was well supported the last day which makes me think they expected better. They ran him in 1st time CP there but remove them today. Jason Hart jumps on and it’s only the horse’s fourth run in a handicap. The yard are just starting to fire and with any luck he takes a step forward from the last day. As well as resenting the headgear, he may have actually needed the run also, on what was fairly testing ground. Knowing my luck one of the other Section 1 qualifiers in this race does me, but there are fitness doubts…esp with Tim Easterby..he has about a 4% sr with handicappers returning 60+ days off- they are too hard to find, and the only time i’m likely to consider one is if the said horse has won after a long break. He has a few out today and no doubt one will drop in just to annoy me!

Magical Effect… i stumbled across the HorseRaceBase ‘shortcut’ report a few days back, for ‘horses that have won after a break’ which is particularly useful at this time of year. I’d forgotten about the shortcuts dashboard but there are some useful pointers in there. Anyway, that highlighted this horse…on closer inspection on his first run for Carr after 317 days off he finished a 2l 2nd. Last year on reappearance after 229 days he won. He appears to go well fresh, and at 15/2, 8/1, that profile was enough really, given the stats starting points above. He also has a couple of ratings pointers (H3/I3) to add meat to the bones.  He drops in class from when last seen and moves back up in trip. He seems to either need a very strongly run 6f,  or 7f. He does do his best work late and can be a hostage to fortune, which is why I wouldn’t really want shorter than this. He has yet to win a C3+ but has enough credible efforts and he could improve further this season. Not impossible. It is also his first go over 7f in a C3, and this could be ‘ideal’. I’m a bit concerned there isn’t loads of pace on paper but hopefully his 6f speed may help on that front, as will his natural ability. Ruth Carr’s are going well enough and a few have been running well on seasonal reappearance. Dangers… well Right Action could take another step forward and Carr’s other runner, Explain, is no forlorn hope. I’d like to think the jockey bookings are indicative here but you never know! He may get some change at a price just in case i’ve picked the wrong one! The market will guide I suspect. I was happy to leave the other two qualifiers on my reading of such things, but I missed plenty of winners yesterday so don’t let me put you off if you can make a case.

La Sioux… i thought was interesting at 10s given how thoroughly unexposed she is. She comes here fit after a few spins on the AW and has a decent pilot on, in the context of this race. This is only her second run on turf and they come back to the CD that she won her maiden over. It’s her first run on turf since, following those three AW runs. She also gets a first time visor to sharpen her up and I wonder if that will mean a change to more positive tactics. It is also her first run in a big field and the more even gallop may help- she always runs on as if she wants further, having been outpaced. Hopefully she settles in the headgear and ‘could be anything’ if she does.

A few of those above are possibly drawn a bit wide but when this going has soft in it (and they are due more showers) then the stats for wider draws seem fine, esp the longer trips. As always it will be about getting out and across, or tucking in (and needing some luck)…getting stuck wide is a disaster around here, other than when it’s a bog as you can grab the nearside rail which is always favoured when testing. Softer ground should be no excuse for the first two, an unknown for Fahey’s. Fingers crossed.

I should mention KIBAAR..who I agonised over and while doing so his price appears to have gone from 14/1>7/1! So, I may have missed that boat. He is going to destroy a C6 handicap if/when Ruth finds the key…given he is only 6, has previously won off marks in the mid 80s and at C3 level… the last run may have blown the cobwebs away although he faces a couple of in-form rivals here…he could have just regressed, but canny Ruth will find the key and may well run up a sequence with him when she does.

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That’s the lot for today. In order not to suffer mental burnout by Saturday (feels like a long week already!)  I haven’t really gone through today’s fair from Punchy, nor have I bothered finding any ‘Perth’  Festival pointers. I still have quite a few Flat ‘Trainer Track Profiles’ to research (the stats that underpin Section 1) etc, and i’d rather put my efforts into finding the best bets in Section 1, which didn’t go too well yesterday! On we go.

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Re-cap…

A quick re-cap on yesterday… Punchestown…well maybe I got the slap in the face i deserved for my bullish assessment on the main bet in that, who ran a strange race. I was nowhere near the winner, no issues there, but the race trends/stats did point to the 2nd /3rd. It would have been glum faces all round if one of those had won! Onto Section 1… and hurragh…winners galore… although  Luna Magic 10/1 and Hedging 6/1 had one thing in common – neither carried any of my money! That’s an emotion you have to deal with on this blog, and I have long come to accept that I won’t land on all 6/1+ winners, but that i’m happy with my own progress/profit, over time. In part that’s why the strategies exist, to remove subjective anguish. I am just pleased that the flat stats appear to be finding decent priced horses that are running well, that is always the aim, and ensures that one way or another (my ‘notes’/strategies/your own judgement) we should land on enough to do more than ok, over time. Baltic Prince won for flat S6, and also S4. I am pinning many a flat strategy hope around S6 and hope that can continue from where it left off last season. The signs are positive. Given it is based on Top Rated qualifiers in Section 1, were that to fail, it would knock most of my confidence for ratings based strategies. S3A on the flat had a good day also. Luna Magic was annoying, in hindsight (of course!).. it was low grade fair but she arrived fit from the AW and had run well at the track before, in C6. This was a C5 but she was lightly raced and ‘could be anything’ still this turf season. Clearly I should have studied her more in-depth, at that price. Valseur Du Granval won for S2 S3A and S5, a welcome winner for a couple of those. I had a token £5 at 12s, but he is another who I should have looked at much more closely, esp his opponents given the field size…George back in some sort of form, and you could pick holes in all the oppo, increasing his chance. Lightly enough raced for his age, goes well fresh and stays further, obvious Paddy would be aggressive. And this was the weakest race he’d contested for some time. Never mind! Next time. There is always something to improve on, but it wouldn’t be fun if there wasn’t. Hopefully your own pins may have landed on one or two of those winners.

The Notes horses ran strange races..the Down chaser got me excited for the first half of the race as his jumping improved the further they went..he then cut out tamely. Jonjo’s ran ok and has wins in him… travelled into it well and got me on the edge of my seat, before not finding much and making a howler at the last which probably cost him 3rd or 4th, but he wasn’t winning. maybe a strongly run 2m5f will be his trip for now. The Moore horse ran a decent race at Brighton, hitting the front and looking like the winner before getting caught late on, frustrating, but that’s racing.

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

A Dunn (25/1< guide)

7.40 Taunt – Tactical Manoeurve

A Honeyball 

7.10 Taunt- Double Accord (10/1< guide)

D McCain (14/1<)

2.00 Perth – Princess Mononoke (m2)

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

4.15 Perth – Some Are Lucky

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Punchestown 2018

Trainer pointers…

REPORT HERE>>>> 

 

Punchestown Day 2

There won’t be any trends coverage of Punchestown on Wednesday I don’t think, unless another Grade B+ handicap hurdle to attack. Also no Festival tips, I’ll leave the chases.  I am not going to spray around a load of points given I hardly ever watch Irish racing or bet on it. My background ‘on recall’ knowledge just isn’t there. I’ll stick to any ways in using the trainer pointers…

 

‘Micro Qualifiers’ 

Jessie H Handicaps

6.40 – Woodland Opera

Mullins NHF

6.05 – Carefully Selected / Relegate

7.15 – Masons Daughter

‘Target Trainers’

4.55 – Kilbricken Storm

5.30 – Sizing Granite

6.40 – Shanahans Turn/Viconte Du Noyer

 

Other pointers (from report above)

3.40 – Thirsty Work

4.20 – Not Many Left

4.55 – Ballyward/Brahma Bull/ Jetz / Next Destination

5.30 – Djakadam/Killutagh Vic / Sandymount Duke

6.05 – Blackbow / Carefully Selected/Tornado Flyer / Relegate

6.40 – Clarcam / Lord Soundrel / Jetstream Jack / Woodland Opera

7.15 – Colreevy

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

34 Comments

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  • What was P Townend thinking about. Finians Oscar was winning that. Why did he look round first, there was no way he was going to get around that fence before the others got there. He will never live that down. You guessed it he cost me a packet.
    Had a nice double with Un De Sceaux. Guess there will be more than me who lost.

    Sick as a pig.

    mickeydee 24/04/18 8:46 PM Reply


  • I think Josh may be busy booking final flights and tickets for Kiev tomorrow

    gearoid180468 24/04/18 9:52 PM Reply


    • Josh will thank you for that! 🙂

      Ken McKenzie 24/04/18 10:01 PM Reply


    • Long way to get yet Gerry! 🙂

      Josh 24/04/18 10:13 PM Reply


      • Great game but should’ve been done and dusted at 5-0. Liverpool defence still needs improvement.

        Ken McKenzie 24/04/18 10:16 PM Reply


        • Ah well it happens, we scored 5 because they were abject at the back! Really woeful. And Dejan has an error in his locker. Part game management, as we saw against West Brom. It was a good ball but he has got caught out by it. And then a 50/50 pen but can see why given. That’s football. Is what it is. We have been very solid in this CL campaign but always room for improvement. Keeps us on our toes. If we go out then we were never going to beat one of the others in the final! Would be shocked if we didn’t score 1 or 2 over there. Right, that’s enough football!

          Josh 24/04/18 10:20 PM Reply


  • That is the strangest end to a horse race I have ever seen I think… having pondered and read a few thoughts of others my view is that…. Townend has clearly made a grave error in the heat of the moment/split second… he approached the second last with two horses upsides him, who both UR… he then looks around to see no horses to his right, I suspect that made him wonder what was going on.. there are then reports of him hearing some shouting etc relating to the fence… in the split second, looking up, he may think Finian’s is bypassing the last… whatever has happened it’s led PT to think he wasn’t meant to be jumping the last. I initially thought he’d gone wrong and was trying to get him out of harms way but that doesn’t appear to be the case. If PT rides out the finish, he goes very close to winning. A genuine error…. one thing is for sure, the Stewards/officials should be fired…an abject statement post inquiry… it shouldn’t have been hard to state clearly what has happened and why, according to the jockey. One of those freak incidents where there will be a reasonable explanation, but it would help if they made it public!
    Josh

    Josh 24/04/18 10:12 PM Reply


    • Or have it filmed and broadcast the footage afterwards. I suppose the owners and trainers have a right to know what happened first but I suspect we won’t find out the true cause for a good while, hope Im wrong.

      Paul 25/04/18 9:01 AM Reply


  • The disdain the HRI have for the paying public has no bounds. It’s beyond farcical that no official statement came out post race to clarify what had been discussed with the stewards. They have committed a far bigger ‘crime’ than Townsend, for me at least.

    Joe H 24/04/18 10:22 PM Reply


    • Compare the stewards silence to what happened at Ludlow earlier in the afternoon. In the 3:05 the placings of the first 2 were reversed (correctly in my opinion) after a bump. A stipendiary steward then appeared and spoke at length to Stuart Machin on Racing UK about the decision. The BHA have got this right, transparency is the key.

      Steve Plant 25/04/18 7:07 AM Reply


      • Seen that race and noticed the bump but felt the decision was a tad harsh since GoodtoKnow had to move to its left to race up the finish chute rather than take on the water jump again.

        gallou 25/04/18 8:53 AM Reply


  • punchy picks.
    3-40. man of plenty 20-1
    4-20. notmanyleft 11-2
    4-55.brahma bull 18-1
    5-30. total recall 8-1
    6-05. relegate 5-2
    6-40. woodland opera 8-1
    7-17. colreevy 7-4

    martin whittle 25/04/18 12:43 AM Reply


  • Keep hitting the crossbar, post etc, if just one could go in-off haha.
    If I had stuck to my guns of grade one-two/class 1-2 courses i wouldn’t have bet at Ludlow and would now be sat in profit after my e/w bets, ah well i was due a bad run. Onto today.
    15:55 Epsom
    DASH OF SPICE 7/1 hills
    Immediately struck me that Silvestre De Sousa was getting right down to 8 stone 2 for this and given his record with the trainer over the years (+47 pts LSP in 5 years). When you dig into the form book you’d have to give him a great shot of reversing a 2L defeat to Ajman King in a maiden over course and distance given he receives 10lbs here in a handicap scenario. Ajman King well and truly franked that form bolting up in his first handicap and in truth he’ll still be well in here but is short enough for me where a few will have lbs in hand. Interestingly the dam of Dash Of Spice is also the gran-dam of Arabian Queen making the two closely related.
    ANYTHING TODAY 11/1 gen
    A horse who can effectively come on for its debut run this season for the O’Meara stable with usual stable jockey Tudhope on board. Zoffany gelding could have even the ground to suit, a little on the good to soft sides by the off. Not written off as this yard can have a winner with one joining them from other yards. Won over 10 f at Newmarket once among other wins.

    Plenty at Punchestown, but, will take a leaf out of Josh`s book and leave it alone and watch today, will see what sp2a have to offer.

    Stewart 25/04/18 7:54 AM Reply


  • I thought EDWULF looked a decent ew bet today in the Gold Cup, 5.30P. His form ties in nicely with a lot of the opposition which he beat in the Leop GC in Feb, that race ties in well with the former Lexus chase at Xmas and the collateral form from that race too.
    The GC run can be forgiven as he was well up well off the pace for much of the race where you had to be prominent, 8th doesn’t tell the whole story. He made up nice ground on the 2nd circuit from the top of the hill and was hampered 3 out. The horse ran out of gas up the hill, this was a decent effort in a race where the pace was relentless.
    A more even pace today against a weaker field should play into his hands.
    There’s questions over all the Mullins runners from hard races/season to jumping issues. The fav looks solid too and 9/4 may look value come race time -saver.
    The 12/1 is too big and is based on his finish in the GC, outside the front 6 in the market I don’t see others getting involved based on issues like long season, ability and ground concerns.

    Joe H 25/04/18 8:27 AM Reply


  • 2 hurdlers & bumpers at Punchy after a top 3 finish at the Cheltenham Festival LTO yesterday : Whisky Sour (4th at 10/1) & Mengli Khan (3rd at 11/2).

    Today :
    4.55
    Delta Work
    Discorama
    Kilbricken Storm
    Next Destination

    6.05
    Carefully Selected
    Relegate
    Tornado Flyer

    traf69 25/04/18 8:28 AM Reply


    • Has this system been profitable the last few years?

      Chris Sengelow 25/04/18 10:31 AM Reply


  • Ladbrokes are giving bet boost on all races today,where they are best priced or joint,well worth getting 14 instead of 12.every little helps

    gearoid180468 25/04/18 9:30 AM Reply


    • I am limited to a max bet of 44p on Ladbrokes!

      martin colwell 25/04/18 10:37 AM Reply


      • Agreed one of the worst bookies around.

        Nick Mazur 25/04/18 12:06 PM Reply


        • That’s 44p more than me! Ladbrokes, Corals, Victor Chandler & Boylesports have all closed my accounts and I am restricted on several others!

          Phil Coverdale 25/04/18 1:04 PM Reply


          • this reminds me of a monty python sketch (tell the kids of today) but I have just had my betfair sb account restricted without informing me. that and 5 other accounts. I just wish I was that good at this game. must be listening to the right people. I suppose I can blame Josh and all at Geegeez. joking of course

            robert saunders 25/04/18 4:19 PM Reply


  • Punchestown

    gearoid180468 25/04/18 9:41 AM Reply


  • Kibaar is a Hugh Taylor selection and so his followers will be on and taking the prices. To be fair to him he is on a run at present after a poor six months.

    martin colwell 25/04/18 10:11 AM Reply


  • Josh,

    Kibaar was tipped up by Hugh Taylor hence the price being smashed up.

    Jim 25/04/18 10:14 AM Reply


    • Ah, that would explain that then! If I had tipped I would have had to declare at 7s, I suspect he may drift out again but we shall see.. he dind’t quite show enough for me the last day, and he could become a cliff horse, but given his back form, in theory he will hack up at this level one day, which may be today!

      Josh 25/04/18 10:22 AM Reply


  • Strange day yesterday, some fortuitous luck and some rather odd results. Whiskey Sour ran too far off the front runners to ever be able to be there at the end (even though he tried), a better ride and he could have won. Vision Des Flow was pipped in the last 0.5f meaning the mention got some return. Finians Oscar, well I think we all have an opinion on what happened there but it was an odd one. Don’t know if would have actually won though. Monbeg Notorius took that luck to get 2nd at 33/1 so again the mention gave some return. To today, some horse that caught my eye.

    4:20 Punchestown – Good Thyne Tara (9/1 gen) 1pt EW:

    6:05 Punchestown – Tornmado Flyer (9/1 Bet365) 0.5pt EW:
    Mention: Relegate (7/2 gen) 1pt WIN

    In a hurry as GeeGeez was down so late in making selections so write up may follow later.

    Chris M 25/04/18 12:01 PM Reply


    • Yes, we had some fairly serious tech issues this morning at GGZ, but all seems stable again.

      traf69 25/04/18 2:36 PM Reply


  • Tips – A bit late today. I am 1.75 points up in April so far. I am going with 3.55 Ep Emenem 1 point each way at circa 25/1 – Ran at this meeting last year and will like the ground and this time of year has some reasonable form. 4.55 Pun Blow by Blow 1 point each way 14/1. Won well at Cheltenham and can continue to progress now.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 25/04/18 1:32 PM Reply


  • I had a little bit on River Argentee as Karl Burke is my trainer to focus on since his exploits on the AW,wasn’t expecting it to return 20/1 though.Had enzos lad yesterday at 14/1 yesterday at Yarmouth.Definitely a trainer that is on the up

    gearoid180468 25/04/18 3:42 PM Reply


    • You’re meant to tell us before Gerry!! haha. But good work. a 1/4 point mention for SP2A, mine ran well enough but beat fair and square…wide for quite a way before getting near front, don’t think that cost the win, as allowed prominent position. Winner did it well, and as i stare at geegeez instant expert that winner jumps out a tad, damn, like to mention any obvious dangers sometimes, another missed! I’ll get good at the flat game soon enough 🙂

      Josh 25/04/18 3:50 PM Reply


  • The flat is very hard game with so much racing from 2-9 almost every day Josh,I don’t really have time to do anything indepth so I just decided to focus on a trainer or two.Dascombe season is coming but he might have a bad run at Haydock this year,so always good to expand a little

    gearoid180468 25/04/18 4:23 PM Reply


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