Members Daily Post: 23/04/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

JUMPS

Hexham 

2.20 

Sky Full Of Stars (all) 14,30 ES H1 I3 3/1 S3   2nd 

Surprise Vendor (hncp c+ m2) ES 28/1 S3 UP

Ballycool (hncp c + m1/m1) 14,30 ES+ G3 13/2 S3A   UP

3.50 -Orioninverness (hncp c + m1) w1 14,30 ES+ H1 I3  11/4  S3A 

 

Sedgefield

5.10 – Alfie Boy (m1) ES G3 4/1 S3   S1 (IF 11.00+ BFSP)

6.40 – Discoverie (all hncps +m1) w1 ES+ 4/1 S3A 

 

Newton Abbot (Summer) 

(New stats profile…) 

4.00 – 

Court Affairs (m1)  14/1 S2  UP

Quiz Master (m1) w2 H1 I3 13/2  2nd (neck) 

Beau Phil (m2) 40/1 UP

 

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FLAT 

Pontefract 

2.40 – 

Give It Some Teddy (micro TJC/age) w2 5/1  UP

Society Red (micro dist/class/seasons runs) I3 5/1  2nd 4/1 

Gulf Of Poets (micro age) H3 I3 14/1  WON 14/1>6/1 

Brother McGonagall (micro age) 40/1 UP

3.10 – 

Orions Bow (micro TJC) 10/1  3rd 8/1 

Poyle Vinnie (micro dist) I3 10/1 UP

Boundsy (micro runs) 10/1  UP

5.15 – Oriental Splendour (micro dist)  I3 G3  12/1  UP

 

Windsor 

None. 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to April 1st 2018)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 1st April 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 6/65,23p, +8.5)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +102)

NOTES

4.00 NA – Quizz Master – 1 point win 13/2 (gen) (7s BetfS/Unibet) 2nd, painful! Caught on the line. That’s racing. 

2.40 Ponte – Gulf Of Poets – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen) WON 12/1 (declared,14s didn’t last long I don’t think..) > 6/1 

3.10 Ponte – Boundsy – 1 point win – 10/1 (WH/BetfS/PP/UniB) 9/1 (gen) UP….that was game over after 1f! Didn’t get out/across/or a decent position… PH seemed stuck in two minds, wanting to try and stay up there and get in at some point..sadly he was stuck wide all the way round, game over. A line through that, but it may make him a bigger price NTO! Worth noting that John Quinn is starting to fire, a couple of placed efforts/winners having been quiet enough…

 

NO more tips. That’s the lot. 

 

Write ups on way, inc danger (saver) horses in tipped races + one of interest in 5.45 Ponte…

4.00- Quizz Master just looks solid here- apparently he went lame the last day but still plugged on for second in a swamp. Given how quickly he returns I assume that was only minor and that he will be spot on again for today. There is a small risk that he isn’t, but the price was just about ok in the context of this race. The horse is 1/7,5p in handicap hurdles and is ever so consistent. He is 1/4,3p at the distance. What with rail movements this race is 2m6f (22f) which is the same trip that he won at and has run his best races at. These look ideal conditions with no excuses and given how lightly raced he is in this sphere/his age, it would be wrong to muse that ‘the handicapper has him’. Please show me the evidence for that, given he has only raced once since, in awful ground, and he went lame. Clearly he needs to progress but I take that view that until  a horse proves beyond doubt a mark is too high, if they are lightly raced, i’ll effectively ignore any ratings rise- price allowing. The other positive was that he races prominently and I hope Harry C has him up there, maybe leading all the way. He looks like a trier, who wants to do his best/be consistent, which is always a positive generally and even more so when summer jumping (generally lower ability animals, which stems from their inconsistency). If he repeats the run of that Fontwell win, where he won by 4l easily enough, he is the one to beat to my eye. He will appreciate the slightly better ground here and he stays well. Form at Fontwell would suggest the tight turns here should be fine (no excuse anyway) and his prominent position will be a bonus. Solid. If unspectacular. Court Affairs… may get £2 on the machine just in case… Mullins doesn’t have a great record with handicap debutants and this horse hasn’t done much..this trip and slightly better ground may bring about more, but he’s had 74 days off also. A few niggles but given his profile, and he is a Sec 1 qualifier, I won’t fall off my seat if he runs better here. One to keep an eye on this summer, maybe when he hits proper ‘good’ he will hack up in a weak race. Champagne George may be a danger at his price, but i’m hoping he gets outpaced around here and won’t quite reel Quizz Master in, who will have stolen a few lengths on the turn for home! I can live with the rest winning, inc the Williams horse at his price of 7s, he is unexposed/could be anything and she is on fire, so a danger. But QM is the most solid of this bunch to my eye, by quite a way. IF he runs his race I would fall out of my chair were he not to even place.

2.40 – Gulf Of Poets... the first thing to say here is that were SOCIETY RED still 7/1 as he was last night, i’d have been cursing Nick’s tip and putting him up also. But his price contracted to 9/2-7/2 in a matter of no time this morning and no surprise to see why. I have backed him at 7s but I wouldn’t at 9/2, 7/2 and certainly can’t tip him at that price. There is a niggle about this drop back to 8f but he looks very solid here, and has the benefit of a run. Anyway…Gulf of Poets…this is a game of price and 14s seemed a bit big to me… firstly he won on his seasonal reappearance last year, which was at this track. That interested me. The horse is 3/4,4p all runs in April. That caught the eye. He is 5/9,6p all runs in April-June…he appears to be a ‘first half of the season’ horse on evidence to date, so something to keep and eye on and worth tracking if today isn’t the day. He drops back in trip here which is a niggle but he is 14s …and he had enough speed to win a small field handicap around Wolvs over 9f, hitting the front 1f from home. I won’t use that as an excuse given his price. He stays very well and this is a stiff track, a constant climb to the line from 4-5f out or so. I got to Ponte at least once every summer to meet up with Ben Aitken and it’s a great little track, well worth the visit- but until you go it’s hard to appreciate just how stiff it is. The horse also returns to class 4 for the first time since a decent enough win at Haydock off 1lb lower. He also has a couple of ratings pointers which suggest that on what he is decent enough ‘against the numbers’ on what he has done to date. Drawn in 6 his jockey should be able to get a decent position and track what ‘could’ be a very strong pace here. Give It Some Teddy is in the ‘could be anything’ category but isn’t 14s! I won’t be shocked if he wins and with any luck one of them takes it. I’ll be going for a long walk by the Mersey if Brother McGonagall wins 🙂 

3.10 – Boundsy… I thought 10s was worth a go here and the odd horse does win from a wide draw here, and given his fitness/recent run, that sharpness should help if he can get out and across, adopting a prominent position. Clearly he could get trapped out wide, game over…but that’s why I wanted double figures. Fahey is actually 12/41,23p, +26 with ALL runners over 5f at the course. He is 4/16,10p in all handicaps over this trip, in the last 5 years, 2/3,3p when Paul H rides. (that will include nurseries and 3YO only handicaps, which my stats in Sec 1 deliberately exclude) This horse just has some very very solid C2 form to his name and a repeat of that Haydock or Donny run is going to put him bang there. There is so much pace on paper in this that they could all fall in a heap, with PH having just sat off it, bursting through late to win by a cosy half a length! Of course he may hit trouble in running, but that’s the nature of the beast with these races. I like the fact that he’s had a run to blow the cobwebs away and he has course form. 10s seemed a tad generous to my rusty ‘flat notes’ eyes. I was happy to leave everything else really for one reason or another and as yet don’t even have a ‘saver’ on anything.

That’s it for tips.

I will mention Delph Crescent in the 5.45 Ponte… only because I was flicking through the Geegeez stats reports and saw that in the last 5 years, Fahey is 6/20,9p with ALL handicap debutants here… they look worth backing blind on that basis as it is clearly a track he targets with unexposed handicappers, across the range of races..2YO, 3YO only and the all age brackets which my stats in Section 1 focus on. Having had a deeper look… with all 3 year olds at Ponte, in handicaps, over 1m, he is 7/23,10p. The horse moves up in trip and drops in class but is draw wide. That may not matter so much over this trip but the start/early position will be crucial. And it is a 3YO handicap where plenty could step forward and having had a few months off to strengthen up, be thrown in. I’ll have a crisp £5 note I suspect to find out, and maybe secure the week’s beer fund. As always, do with that info as you please.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

D McCain (14/1<)

5.10 Sedg- Derrynane (m2/3)

6.40 Sedg – Midnight Walk (m1/2)

7.10 Sedg – Danceintothelight (m3)

 

Irish Raiders (16/1< guide!)

(22/1 winner at Ayr on Sat, another ‘Festival’ winner north of 16s SP, following on from the Fred Winter winner at 33s who ‘qualified’ on this angle also…) 

7.10 Sedg – Walkers Point

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

The Week Ahead…

well plenty for me to plough through this week, but it is what you pay me for so i’d best not complain! 🙂 …

  1. Results updates.. I owe you an update on the advised strategies, as per links in Key, for the last 3 weeks or so. That is my first job after I stop typing this morning. They have taken a back-seat given how much racing/festivals etc have been going on. 
  2. Punchestown… as I type I have no idea what I will be doing this week on that front! After the results update above i’ll be spending a few hours in HRB… I will come up with some focused trainer angles hopefully, some pointers, and the odd micro angle. In terms of big race coverage/trends/stats.. i will take this on a day by day basis, completing any trends profiles by 2pm or so the day before- my main focus will be dabbling in handicap hurdles and i’ll very much be led by the stats! I don’t have Irish racing knowledge on recall as I do with the UK – the people/the tracks/the horses etc. That knowledge simply isn’t there which makes any analysis that bit more tricky, and more work! But, there will be something to help us on our way, and given I have plundered +180 points or so in the last 41 days from ‘Festival Races’, i’d best give it a go! 🙂 
  3. Other research…i’m at the point where there is no stats profile for any new Flat meeting that now comes up, so on a day by day basis i’ll be creating those, which form the basis of the content in Section 1. Brighton and Yarmouth tomorrow etc etc. Plus the summer jumps needs updating, and I should develop the odd Flat ‘test zone’ angle. 
  4. Oh…and it appears Perth have their 3 day Festival this week also! This is going to feel like Festival week, i’d best stock up on coffee. (no need for violins, i’m like a pig in muck really) 
  5. We have the jumps end of season finale to look forward to this weekend. What a week of racing. There will be something for that no doubt, and free tips for the big staying handicap. 
  6. I have a load of Notebook horses I need to update on, and i need to get back to doing the weekly ‘the week that was’ articles, but they most likely will start again next week, given what a mad period we are in. And I want to record a few ‘review’ videos for Scottish National, Cheltenham meeting and a look at other odd horse of interest. 
  7. And I think that’s it, bar the usual daily content, which takes out 7-10am, and 4.30-6pm every day. Oh, and on a boring business front I need to do some work on this new data protection regulation, what joy. Who knew that I wasn’t supposed to be selling all your email addresses to some dodgy guy in Russia, or  Cambridge Analytica . 🙂 THAT IS A JOKE! 

 

Back later today with something.

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

33 Comments

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  • At Newton Abbot tomorrow !

    Kevin goodchild 22/04/18 6:23 PM Reply


  • Just the one for tomorrow:
    Society Red Pontefract Monday 14:40 1pt e/w Price taken 7/1 1/4 3 and 13/2 1/5 4 split stakes- Appreciate I sound like a bit of a broken record but he one of only horses with the benefit of a run in the race. On top of that has an excellent draw and likes to race prominently which are crucial at Ponty. Fahey and Hanagan have a solid record here. Was 2nd in his last start as a 3 yr old to a very good horse in a hot looking race and expect him to go close.

    Nick Mazur 22/04/18 8:16 PM Reply


    • I guess I can’t complain being 2nd to Josh although that makes it 3 winners, 5 seconds, 1 third and 3 unplaced (one a neck 4th) from 12 flat tips this seasons so if this keeps up I’ll be happy.

      Nick Mazur 23/04/18 2:52 PM Reply


      • And I assume you, like me, didn’t do the 28/1 forecast?? Nope…and this time I thought about it, would have ‘only’ been for £2.50 but would have been a nice bonus, i’ll never learn with that bet! And it would be greedy I suppose.
        Well done, you have started the flat in very good form, keep it up!

        Josh 23/04/18 2:55 PM Reply


        • Can never be too greedy in the game 😉

          Nick Mazur 23/04/18 2:58 PM Reply


  • Jumbo Davis in the bumber at Sedgefield caught my eye. First run for the trainer after being bought from Kevin O’Donnell. Had a couple of P2P’s, but this its first run under rules. What caught the eye is Whittington is 5 wins from 7 at the track. He’s only sending 1 tomorrow in a nearly 300 mile journey. A bit of a shot but at 13/2 i think just enough juice to take a punt.

    James P 22/04/18 10:39 PM Reply


  • M Hammond runs a team of 17 (!) today at Hexham, Pontefract and Sedgefield.
    Two I fancy 350H Major Ridge and 540S Alderbrook Lad but further digging to find the multiple he is setting up..

    chrisrees 23/04/18 3:56 AM Reply


    • Major Ridge definitely looks interesting as he is trying to help head girl Becky Smith win the “lady” amateur championship. He sounds fairly positive on his blog https://mickyhammondracing.co.uk/tyrell-and-becky-kick-off-our-pontefract-stayers-season/

      Andy N 23/04/18 6:30 AM Reply


      • That’s a decent blog Andy, i’ll have to add it to the list and try to remember to flick through! Along with Lacey’s, N Alexander’s, ‘Lambourn trainers’, a good little selection- just have to work out what to look for and when to read between the lines.

        Josh 23/04/18 10:38 AM Reply


  • couple of bars hit yesterday… nothing going in the net though…keep plugging away.
    15:10 Pontefract
    HOLMESWOOD 12/1 hills 1 pt ew
    Took off towards the end of last season when dropped to five furlongs, not beaten far at Haydock when last seen despite dire ground. He can go well fresh and he’s still unexposed as an out and out sprinter. Should have a role to play.
    SHOW PALACE 12/1 gen 1pt ew
    Prolific scorer winning ten of his twenty-five career starts, with most of those successes coming on truly ‘soft’ ground. He won’t mind today’s conditions as a result, he is on the upgrade and this is highest grade he`s been in, but, these sprinters beat each other on a regular basis, so, he should go close!

    good luck with whomever you back today!

    Stewart 23/04/18 8:02 AM Reply


  • I’ve a little micro saved for Chris Wall runners in class 6 handicaps between 6f amd 10f with sp between 10/1 and 20/1
    44 runs/6 wins returning 31 points profit to SP and 46 points to BSP. Low strike rate but 71% ROI To SP & 105% to BSP
    However at Windsor it is 2 from 2 and he has a runner in the 4.50 Atlanta Belle 14/1 Betvictor/Skybet/Betway 12/1 gen.

    Atlanta Belle has proven to be better on the AW so far in her career with only 3 unplaced runs on the turf to her name including one here.

    However there are reasons why she may go well tonight.
    Well drawn in 16 here she should get a clear run and being a potential front runner here giving her every opportunity to improve on previous turf efforts.
    She clearly is no good thing but may be worth a tickle just in case.

    Wall has only had 1 runner so far this turf season and it didn’t do to well so stable form is unknown really but he can get them ready after a break.

    I’m having 1 point win only as the place strike rate of the system definitely does not warrant the extra point wagered.

    April selections so far
    3 tips 0 wins -3 points

    The last selection Bon Chic 25/1 was going well and was about 12 lengths ?? clear of everything when jinxing through the side of a hurdle about 1/2 way through the race and it would surely have been interesting to see how it would have panned out given a clear round.

    Chris Mcilfatrick 23/04/18 8:09 AM Reply


    • Apologies that should be 4 tips 0 wins, forgot about Mooltazem flopping on Saturday evenng.

      Chris Mcilfatrick 23/04/18 8:19 AM Reply


      • AB pedigree good for easy going; ran well in a maiden fto last spring too. Likely to progress as a 4yo. I’ll cover my win stake in the place market.

        chrisrees 23/04/18 9:04 AM Reply


    • Looks interesting Chris…will you be keeping a record of it in here?

      Chris Sengelow 23/04/18 9:30 AM Reply


      • I’m not intending to Chris, It was only because of the 2 from 2 at Windsor that I posted, the previous 2 were 2015 and 2011 and both were 10/1 SP

        Chris Mcilfatrick 23/04/18 11:59 AM Reply


  • No Early Season Flat Maiden qualifiers today, folks.

    traf69 23/04/18 8:17 AM Reply


  • 4.00 Newton Abbott Cap Du Nord 7/1 1 point win

    Dont have time for full analysis but Bowen has a 40% strike rate for the stable which first caught my eye.

    Chris Mcilfatrick 23/04/18 9:36 AM Reply


  • I don’t usually do much on the flat until Tom Dascombe gives us all a healthy kick start to the season,that bonanza may start on Saturday.Andrea Atzeni is the jockey to follow at Windsor,1 ride last Mpnday 1 winner.His 2 for Mick Shannon today are most interesting 6.20 Apple Anni and Iconic Belle 7.20.The former was 33 and 28 last night so the value is definitely gone on that one.Mick has hit the ground running and the partnership do well

    gearoid180468 23/04/18 10:34 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh
    Unlucky day for both of us yesterday you with Boyfromnowhere and our Syndicate horse The Last But One making the dreaded last fence mistake when going to win the race very frustrating but he is still learning not a bad record 3 from 5 over fences the other 2 races he fell when having a Winning chance sounds like a busy week for us all this week with Perth Sandown and Punchestown looking forward to it

    Regards

    Peter L

    peter0104 23/04/18 12:08 PM Reply


    • HI Peter,
      Ah I think you were more unlucky than me! … agonising, such a fall when going to win is annoying when you have backed them, I can’t imagine when you actually own a slice. Still, it’s more of a positive than falling out the back of the tv but still bloody frustrating I suspect!
      Boyfromnowhere was beat fare and square, and by the right horse.. younger, running well, more unexposed…was simply whether he would stay which sadly he did, but he was pushed out, Boyfrom ran his heart out so no complaints. Maybe a more galloping track on that ground would suit. If they can find another opportunity he may go close, he’s at a level/mark he can win from again now aged 11. Fingers crossed they can keep him sound as he has a win or two in him still. He was doing all his best work late as expected.
      Josh

      Josh 23/04/18 12:25 PM Reply


      • Hi Josh
        Yes still frustrating but that’s the game we are in and he is still young and has time to learn
        And as I write another great winner from you and 2nd from Nick had both each way but didn’t do f/c still good profit sorted for the day already and more horses from you and SP2A still to come brilliant

        Regards

        Peter L

        peter0104 23/04/18 3:03 PM Reply


  • Back after some time off, relaxed and a nice trip to Budapest. Ready to go again!

    3:40 Pontefract – Bodacious Name (8/1 lads,coral)
    Marathon trip on the flat here having stamina is key. Bodacious Name has the stamina to make today’s trip, he won well over 2m back in August over heavy ground at Nottingham and looked to stay on strongly. He has been below par of recent but this trip may just suit him perfectly. I will take EW as it is a fairly open race but he the ability to get the win.

    That’s all from me today

    Chris M 23/04/18 12:26 PM Reply


    • Brave run from Bodacious Name to get 3rd, came up against a strong horse but showed potential winning ways over these marathon trips. (Just realised I made no mention of what I bet on that first tip, I will put it down to cobwebs from having some time off. It was meant to be 0.5pt EW as this is my normal betting approach).

      Adding one for tonight’s races.

      17:10 Sedgefield – Derrynane (6/1 gen):
      A runner that hits one of the Dream Team systems from Matt at GeeGeez but also one that catches my eye given the win back in January also came after a 60+ break. Since that win he has had 2 rather lacklustre performances as favourite but this break of 2 months could see him repeat the performance back in January. Trainer has some great stats at the course having won over 20% of the races here and placed in over 40%. EW to be safe. 0.5pt EW

      Chris M 23/04/18 4:18 PM Reply


  • bang with Gulf Of Poets Josh, fabulous pick and a game run from Fahey’s Nick, well done guys.

    PAUL EBREY 23/04/18 2:44 PM Reply


  • Wot? Josh only does festivals? Gulf of Poets says otherwise! Good pick matey!!!

    Nige C 23/04/18 2:45 PM Reply


  • Top work with Gulf of Poets Josh, thanks mate.
    Got him with 2 in the 3:30 at NA and 2 in the 3:50 at Hexham as well so fingers crossed for some healthy bonus.

    Chris Albin 23/04/18 2:49 PM Reply


    • one double in!! now for the next (hopefully)

      Chris Albin 23/04/18 3:37 PM Reply


  • cheers gents, more so delighted that what I call my ‘flat eyes’ were working there, and that winner was the perfect ‘model’ moving forwards really..had everything… stats way in from my stats pack, proven record fresh, a ‘profile’ element- time of year for him, solid form to name in better races, a drop in class for first time in an age, ok draw, pace to aim at,track form, 10s/12s+ . There will be many more like that in the weeks ahead, ticking those similar boxes, just a question of landing on enough of them!

    Josh 23/04/18 2:53 PM Reply


    • Gulf of Poets was one of my system picks too, so a good bet landed.
      Top stuff yet again Josh thank you!

      Chris Murrell 23/04/18 9:31 PM Reply


  • Josh is it worth backing all qualifiers between the odds 10 to 25/1 on the flat like with the NH,if not I remember that I once read that theres a back all on a saturday or am i mistaken,cheers

    christopher jones 23/04/18 3:35 PM Reply


    • Hi Chris, nope it wasn’t when I last looked last season after a load of results, i’d have put it in the monitoring/let’s see pile if it showed any promise… maybe i’ll take another look but I wouldn’t be advising it, and there are so many more bets in that range.
      In terms of a ‘way in’ i think any horses priced in that range and bigger on the flat, are the place to focus, as plenty of profit in that region just about picking them..hopefully S6 lands on plenty in that range.
      Yep, I haven’t kept track of Saturday’s this year,that was a musing last jumps season, but I don’t remember too many great days so I doubt that did too well… given my approach it’s a case of trying to focus where I can, and in truth I can’t keep on top of every possible permutation.
      Josh

      Josh 23/04/18 3:41 PM Reply


  • I shall try and dutch these for the 1715 Pontefract Dragstone Rock Amazing Grazing Silvanus
    Selections have come about using GeeGeez and RTR (rating the Races)

    Richard 23/04/18 4:18 PM Reply


  • great tipping josh those nasty bookmakers will be closing your accounts you carry on like this

    paul 23/04/18 4:46 PM Reply


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