Members Daily Post: 22/04/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

JUMPS

Wincanton 

2.50 – 

Garo De Juilley (hncp h + m1) 14,30 ES+ H1 5/1 S3A  UP

The Sweeny (hncp h) 7/1  WON 7/1>4/1 

Super Sid (m1) 14/1 S2  UP

Secret Door (m1) I3 G1 12/1 S1 S2 S5  2nd 14/1 

3.20- Bramble Brook (hncp c + m1) ES+ H3 I3 7/1 S3A    UP

4.55 – Beers Rails (hncp h+m1) ES+ I1 G1  5/1  S3A  WON 5/1>4/1 

 

Market Rasen 

3.00- Sweet Holly (all hncps) ES H1 I3 G3 11/2 S3 S4 S1+S5  UP

5.05 – Wolf Sword (m1) I1 9/2 WON 9/2>7/2 

 

Stratford (Summer Jumps)

NOTE: I have yet to research this year’s ‘Summer Jumps’ stats pack as I haven’t had time, so I have used last year’s, which can be found in the research link in Key below. 

3.40 – Passing Call (hncp h) (handicap hurdle debut)  H3 I3  7/2 3rd 

4.45 – Boyfromnowhere (all hncps) 30 H3 I3 8/1  2nd 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to April 1st 2018)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 1st April 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 5/61,20p, -0.5)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +102)

NOTES

4.45 Strat – Boyfromnowhere – 1 point win – 8/1 (BetfS/PP/888/BV) 7/1 (gen) 2nd 5/1

No excuse there, ran his race and gave me hope all the way round… the morning priced fav (10/3, 5/1 SP) takes it and no surprise given his age in context of opponents, lightly raced and running well..i was rather hoping the petrol would run out up the straight but he kept on well and won fairly cosily i’d suggest. 

I was happy to have a dart at this old boy at 8/1, in the context of this race. He is very lightly raced for his age, 1/17,4p in handicap chases. He has clearly had his problems but his one win was over this trip and is the only proven winner at the trip in the race. Clearly something may improve for it but this is a moderate class 5. This horse drops into C5 for the first since his maiden hurdle victory many years ago. His mark has come down plenty, he has a very good pilot on and his trainer is ‘in form’ from small numbers. You can just back his runners here blind, and be fairly confident he’ll land the odd nice priced winner over time. Finally, what I would call his ‘form story’ or ‘profile/race history’ makes sense this season… in the context that he needs 28f+ to be seen to his best, he has run well this season at times, and in a higher class. 3 starts ago he lost by 2l over 30l at Bangor in a class 4, off 98. Were he to repeat that run he would go very close to winning this. On his next start he ran in a C3 and was simply outclassed to my eye, and he may have been tired from the Bangor effort. LTO he was back over a flat 24f, and surprise surprise got outpaced near the business end. That was a C4. This race is very winnable with everything else having as many questions. Oh, and he gets the Cheekpieces on, which he has won in before, and it is the first time the trainer has reached for them, and first time he has work headgear in 9 starts or so…funny that, trainer bringing the horse to one of his target tracks, drop to basement class, up in trip, ground is ok, and he decides to apply the headgear! (cue tailed off, but on paper it all makes sense) Handicap chase win number 2 for the horse could be on it’s way…

Elsewhere… I did muse as a few in that 2.50… namely Secret Door and Super Sid… the former could take this if the return to hurdles sparks her up and she has some decent hurdle form to her name. The yard are a bit hit and miss at the moment and without doubt, she isn’t in form. Maybe it is simply down to a dislike for chasing. She is a qualifier on S1 and a few others and I have backed her, but wasn’t in a place to tip her really. Hopefully I’m wrong and its ‘one for the stats’. Super Sid may appreciate these race conditions – ground/step up in trip, and we could see more. And S2 qualifier I did have some change on ‘just in case’ but he really needs to step forward from some abject runs to date. George isn’t firing them in either, hit and miss also – many yards are in the category. 

That’s the lot for today. 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

5.40 MR- Rockery Garden (m2) UP

Handicap Chase ‘Starting Points’ 

(LTO hncp chase winners angle, 30% win/50% win place SR) 

3.30 MR – One Style WON 6/4

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Nothing much to add… I will do a ‘review video’ I think, at some point next week, looking back at Cheltenham (not happy), the Chris Gordon winner in the notes (‘the’ perfect type of bet, given his profile etc and a dodgy fav) and that Thirsk Race, Mr Orange…the more I think about it, the less happy I am! That’s the restless perfectionist in me…but why oh why I have dismissed him I have no idea…he’d had a run/was fit (unlike the two pokes which were questions, built into price, but it should have propelled Mr Orange to top of list at 20s) he was drawn low, course winner, ground drying out, Dougie back on, 1st time visor…still, positives in that the stats are highlighting decent priced horses that are running well/going close/winning. That’s a good thing, and with some clearer thinking, and when my flat eyes get into focus, I’ll be finding a few Mr Orange’s over the course of the season. 

Enjoy the rest of your weekend,

Josh

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

23 Comments

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  • From Nick..
    Rouergate Market Rasen 15:00 1.5pt win Will post more later once Josh has today’s post up but this one getting backed.

    Josh 22/04/18 9:54 AM Reply


    • Ladbrokes paying first 3 for them that like EW!

      lightowlers 22/04/18 10:10 AM Reply


    • I’m tracking him, but he is huge and course may not suit, so it was no bet earlier.

      chrisrees 22/04/18 12:10 PM Reply


  • Rouergate Market Rasen 15:00 1.5pt win
    Scorpion Princess Stratford 15:40 1pt e/w

    Might get a chance to do write ups later but got one or two things to sort out this morning.

    Nick Mazur 22/04/18 10:15 AM Reply


    • Have also had £5 e/w on Super Sid in the 14:50 at Wincanton

      Nick Mazur 22/04/18 10:17 AM Reply


  • Wincanton 2:15 Self Control 25/1

    I’ve had an ew play on this
    Record 2 runs 1st fell and back from a long absence 6th of 7 so clearly there’s a lot of guesswork involved and it certainly doesn’t leap off the page.
    I can’t help but think that Paul Nicholls sees something in this horse and his record here coupled with Sam Twist on board means I’m willing to find out.

    Darren 22/04/18 10:48 AM Reply


    • Ha!
      I’d rather have been on Cotswold Way!
      Moving on

      Darren 22/04/18 2:36 PM Reply


  • Saturday’s Early Season Maidens
    1.25 Newbury – Team Decision = 9th at 7.80
    1.55 Thirsk – Smart Illusion = 9th at 29.21
    5.40 Nottingham – Jamih = 2nd at 9.29

    0/3 for -3.00pts ==> 3/19 (15.79% SR) for -6.59pts ( -34.68% ROI)

    No Qualifiers today

    Close but not close enough with Jamih yesterday, would have out us in profit overall.

    traf69 22/04/18 11:04 AM Reply


  • Don`t normally bother on a Sunday, but, got that itch i get when i know something is in the offing, so, here goes..
    15:45 Navan
    DOONARD PRINCE 15/2 unibet 1pt ew
    Course and Distance winner, won here in October, on heavy ground, so will handle the soft forecast today. I expect the race to play out like that race in October and the other one that day follows..
    PILLAR 12/1 365 1pt ew
    Course winner also, he always seems to find one too good lately, has dropped down weights, got a 7lb claimer on today, so if he doesn’t go close today, then may as well drop into claimers…

    16:55 WINCANTON
    MOORLANDS GEORGE 8/1 1pt ew
    Nico De Boinville is always on this fella and gets on well with him, don`t let the 529 day absence put you off and Nico is in blistering form of late, has ability to run these into the ground and 8/1 is definitely value.
    He is a strong stayer will relish these drying conditions. He has not been seen in action since November 2016, able to run off his last winning mark as a result of his absence. He has a very smart record when fresh so needs plenty of consideration.
    WATER WAGTAIL 8/1 1pt ew
    Right handed tracks suit him well, all three of his wins coming on good to soft ground. Easy to excuse his refusal last time at this track on desperate ground when well beaten. Each way squeak under more suitable conditions.

    Good luck in whatever you back today.
    Well done Josh on some marvellous days/month in April, a couple of months ago you were doubting your methods, long live the self-fulfilling prophecy!!

    Stewart 22/04/18 11:17 AM Reply


    • nice second there stewart

      krishna 23/04/18 4:13 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh
    Hope you’re ok after the party last nite another great winner yesterday got 50/1 price boost from Ladbrokes so did each way knew you would get back losses from Cheltenham on Weds and some and Nick with nice winner in Taqdeer a very nice day
    If you get chance can you look at the 3-20 Wincanton The Last but One is in the race probably our best syndicate horse see if there are any dangers ?
    Peter0104

    peter0104 22/04/18 12:21 PM Reply


    • Hi Peter,
      Ah I’m just about to leave for the station back up Liverpool from Bristol. Lap top is packed away and I didn’t look at the race. Maybe someone else can chip in with any thoughts! GL

      Josh 22/04/18 12:24 PM Reply


      • Fantastic win yet again. My recollection was that it Cruised to the front 2 out was about 8 lengths clear on the run and looked comfortable until the fast finishing chaser almost caught on the line. Won by a nose. Me to 50/1 price boost with laddies. Thank you.

        Mick 22/04/18 1:38 PM Reply


    • Hi Peter
      Looks a tricky race to me.

      As i type there are 3 co faves @10/3 so clearly there are some strong contenders and the market isn’t clear on which to go with.
      Tizzard/Cobden combo is a strong one on Bamble Brook.

      Ambler Gambler & Wilberdragon both come with good records.
      Having said that TLBO will probably hose up!
      One to watch rather than get involved in for me.

      Darren 22/04/18 1:44 PM Reply


      • Hi Darren

        Thanks I had Bramble Brook and Ambler Gambler as dangers the former is a section 1 qualifier so will have savers on and f/c but have to back my horse as it owes me nothing

        Regards
        Peter L

        peter0104 22/04/18 2:03 PM Reply


        • Oh definitely. GL

          Darren 22/04/18 2:35 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh

    That’s ok have a good journey back

    Regards

    Peter L

    peter0104 22/04/18 1:10 PM Reply


  • Just occurred to me that you were a Milansbar away from a sweep of all the grand nationals this season too.

    neilmck 22/04/18 2:07 PM Reply


    • That’s not right is it? You tipped Milansbar for the Welsh National when it didn’t get into the race at all, then missed it the following time.

      neilmck 22/04/18 2:10 PM Reply


      • Josh tipped Milansbar in for the GN, 1 point each way at 33/1. He tipped it in the week before the meeting. It came fifth I think as I got paid each way on him.

        martin colwell 22/04/18 2:47 PM Reply


      • Yep tipped in Welsh. Resented CP 1st time,never grabbed hold of bit,off bridle early,race over after 3f. Also a Williams unexposed one,not too dissimilar to Scottish winners profile from memory. He didn’t do much. No return on race. He then came out week later in Classic Chase Warwick , 1st Blinkers 1st bryony ,easyou lead..clear after 1f he would win to my eyes,crossed him off shortlist last,20s. Annoying! Tipped him in THE National 33s EW 5 paces,ensured profit on race of 4 points or so. Tipped winner of Midlands Nat 25s. I do like a National it seems! Still to tip winner of THE National though, the only blot on my national copybook inc all of the regional ones which I’ve nabbed winners of at least once.

        Josh 22/04/18 3:06 PM Reply


  • Nice work today Josh. My first day in the community. Really liked Beers Rails and Wolf Sword so doubled them up ew small stakes. Nice little return.

    Dannybee123 22/04/18 6:59 PM Reply


    • Good stuff Danny, and welcome.

      Ah the stats are the stats, good starting points, esp when getting on top of what the extra symbols next to their name may mean… (Bears Rails was Elite Squad+ and more importantly probably double top rated on inform speed and geegeez speed, so a solid foundation/way in there)… that is my fav type of comment to read, as would indicate you’ve looked yourself using them as starting points and after a bit of a closer look decided to have a go, which is what it’s all about! That’s not a bad first day. No harm in small stakes, it’s the only way to start/ and for some end, fun, entertainment and ticking over profit wise in the long term is the aim. Josh

      Josh 22/04/18 7:22 PM Reply


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