Members Daily Post: 20/04/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

JUMPS 

Fontwell

1.40 –

Rebel Collins (all hncps + hncp h + m1) 14 ES+ H3 I3 G3 7/1 S3A S4  UP

Tara Bridge (m1) w2 14 H3 I3 8/1  S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP)

Mellow Ben (m1+m2) 14 12/1 S2 WON 12/1>7/1 (10p R4) 10.8/1

Le Precieux (m2) ES  11/1 S2 S3 UP

3.25 –

Bishops Court (all hncps) 14 ES+ H3 12/1 S2 S3A  UP

Solstice Son (all hncps + hncp c+ m2) ES+ G3 6/1 S3A  S1 (IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

Antony (m2) ES I3 G3 3/1 S3  WON 6/4 

3.55 – Ballyantics (all hncps + hncp h) 14 ES+ H1 G3 11/4 S3A  UP

4.25 – Soulsaver (all hncps + hncp h) ES+ H1 I1 2/1 S3A  WON 9/4 

5.30 –

Luck’s Boy (NHF) 11/1 S2  UP

Just Jeremy (NHF) 12/1 S2 UP

 

Ayr 

3.45 –

Monbeg River (all hncps + hncp c) G1 25/1 S1 S2A UP

Roman De Senam (m1) 14,30 I1 4/1  UP

4.45 – Baby Ticker (all hncps + m1) 14 20/1 S2A  UP

 

Southwell

None.

 

FLAT

Bath

7.15 –

Red Alert (4yo+ hncps) w2 14,30 G3 16/1  UP 33/1 

Pastfact (micro dist) ES+ H3 12/1 S3A UP

Showmethewayavrilo (micro dist) ES+ 14/1 S3A UP

7.45 – Prominna (4yo+ hncps) w1 14,30 I3  6/1 

 

Newbury 

None.

 

*

KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to April 1st 2018)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 1st April 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

*

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 4/54,18p, -4.5)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +104)

NOTES

1.40 Font – Mellow Ben – 1 point win – (11/1 gen) WON 10/1 

4.45 Ayr – Baby Ticker – 1 point win – 18/1 (gen) 20/1 (bet365) UP

7.15 Bath – Red Alert – 1 point win – 16/1 (gen) UP

That’s it for ‘Notes’ horses….

1.40.. I have had a saver on Rebel Collins also as per vid to follow, hopefully the Nicholls horse doesn’t hack up but may well do. 4.45 Ayr, I have had a saver on the Pipe horse, given stats she hits below and having won so easily LTO. 

 

‘Festival Tips’ (+104 in 2018 to date)

5.15 Ayr 

King of Fashion – 1 point win – 10/1 (gen) UP

Robin Royale – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen) (14/1 bet365) UP

*

Video has more thoughts on race above.. Bob Mahler is the one I fear from the stats/trends shortlist below, but at 7s given his wayward tendencies I was happy leaving him for tipping purposes. Two others around 7s I can live with winning. Two big pokes on the trends shortlist, that I thought looked up against it, maybe the Dobbin horse is most interesting of those if you wanted a ‘just in case’ £2 at BFSP or something, but I struggled to make much of a case in a race like this.

 

That will be all for ‘TIPS’ in section 2.

 

*

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

D McCain (14/1<)

3.45 Ayr – Katachenko (m1/m2) DNQ

4.15 Ayr – Lofgren (m1/m2) UP

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

4.50 South – Fergal Mael Duin (m3) UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Ayr

Some Ayr Scottish Nat meeting…

The following report brings everything together:-

  • Trainer Pointers
  • Trends/Stats/Pointers for 3x handicap hurdles + Scottish Grand National

Scottish National Meeting Report/Notes: READ HERE>>>

*

Ayr Traner ‘Qualifiers’ from the report above, ‘starting points’…

2.05 – Brahms De Clermont

2.40 – Embole

3.15 – Darius Des Bois / Silent Steps

3.45 – Theinval / Romain De Senam / Value At Risk

4.15 – Copain De Classe / Azzuri

4.45 – Miss Tynte

5.15 – Set List

From the list above, the most interesting to my eyes, at the prices, having had a brief flick through… Silent Steps / Romain De Senam / Miss Tynte 

*

5.15 Ayr 

The stats are probably not overly helpful but focusing on 5/6 year olds, top 3 LTO, top 2 at least once on last three runs, leaves 5…

Bob Mahler/ Chapel Style / Forgetthesmalltalk / Strong Economy / Jack Devine (he’s 10th or lower in weights, a small neg,historically) (no runners this year trained in South West)

 

AYR: Through the card notes…

Very brief look (for Mark,and anyone else off to track!) , so some caution,mainly using the stats pointers above…

2.05 – Brahms De Clermont

2.4 – Our Lucas (plenty to find but at least fit/in form/progressive)

3.15 – Silent Steps / Darius Des Bois

3.45 – Romain De Senam (looks a tricky race, head-scratcher)

4.15 – no strong views, Lofgren for change for McCain angle in test zone, at prices. One of top two prob wins.

4.45 – Baby Ticker (Tip Sec 2) / Miss Tynte

5.15 – Tips: King of Fashion / Robin Royale (Bob Mahler / Jack Devine of small interest, from the trends shorlist)

**

That’s the lot for today.

 

DO NOTE: Saturday’s post will be up either late on Friday or as early as possible on Saturday. I will put up a holding post so you can use comments etc. I am away in Bristol for the weekend visiting my old uni housemates, so bear with me. The main focus on Sat will be the Scottish Grand National, as well as Section 1 as per usual.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

35 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Josh
    Sure you are on it but just a reminder off to Ayr tomorrow so any pointers through the card would be appreciated

    Cheers Mark

    Mark 19/04/18 1:10 PM Reply


    • Yep, i’ll endeavour to come up with something of use in the morning, no problem.
      Josh

      Josh 19/04/18 8:52 PM Reply


    • As above Mark, caution as always, and never let anything I say or don’t say put you off your own fancies!

      Very brief look (for Mark,and anyone else off to track!) , so some caution,mainly using the stats pointers above…

      2.05 – Brahms De Clermont

      2.4 – Our Lucas (plenty to find but at least fit/in form/progressive)

      3.15 – Silent Steps / Darius Des Bois

      3.45 – Romain De Senam (looks a tricky race, head-scratcher)

      4.15 – no strong views, Lofgren for change for McCain angle in test zone, at prices. One of top two prob wins.

      4.45 – Baby Ticker (Tip Sec 2) / Miss Tynte

      5.15 – Tips: King of Fashion / Robin Royale (Bob Mahler / Jack Devine of small interest, from the trends shorlist)

      Josh 20/04/18 10:22 AM Reply


  • Given the Nicholls stats in the report and with 3 of his 4 runners Tomorrow well fancied, I can feel a lucky 15 coming on.

    Steve Plant 19/04/18 9:54 PM Reply


    • My main argument for such a bet is that his strike rate for this meeting is ‘only’ 26% which means 74% don’t win which indicates just the one winner tomorrow.
      Personally I think the bookies would welcome such a bet.
      I hope I am proved wrong and you hit all 4 though. Good luck

      Chris Sengelow 19/04/18 10:27 PM Reply


      • Well true…although a big part of this game,other than general discipline/long term profit, is about entertainment/enjoyment (unless you have 100% zen like traders mindset, which I don’t. It would send me to sleep) and for some the odd bet like that adds to the entertainment every now and then. I mean they are rarely for me but I assume Steve isn’t talking about putting the mortgage on! They all seem to have solid chances against the stats although small samples obviously. No harm if a bit of fun,he may bag two or three. Cue all tailed off! Nothing wrong with having a ‘fun bet’ bank for the odd dabble on a multiple in my view.

        Josh 19/04/18 10:34 PM Reply


        • Absolutely Josh, Wasn’t trying to be boring -just offering an alternative slant on the stats.
          He will all but certainly bang all 4 in now…the mortgage idea might not actually be a bad one

          Chris sengelow 19/04/18 10:41 PM Reply


        • I agree, i’m not a multiple man as a rule, never seem to get much of a result from them for obvious reasons. It was just me having a quick look through when I had a spare 10 mins on a Thursday night and quite fancying 2 of them but with no prices to set the pulse racing. Don’t panic, the mortgage is safe, i’m using my free £10 Paddy Power bet from last weeks bets…

          Steve Plant 20/04/18 8:18 AM Reply


      • Punters come in all shapes and sizes and so do their bets. I only do singles and the occasional forecast/exacta unless I get given a free bet of a certain type. No mortgage on the house and so I cannot lose it. However nothing wrong with a fun bet such as a lucky 15 for some.

        Haggas is 6/14, +29 in handicaps at Newbury in the last 12 months. He runs Tallow in the 2,25. Gosden is 15/45, +26 in all races at Newbury in the past 12 months. He runs the unraced Lah Ti Dar in the 3.00 on Friday. The hyped Flic Ou Voyou goes for Nicholls in the 5.30 FP on Friday.

        Good luck.

        martin colwell 19/04/18 10:51 PM Reply


        • The above are today Tips, 2 points win on all 3. We lost 2 points yesterday and so are back down to +1 point this month.

          martin colwell 20/04/18 11:52 AM Reply


      • As long as all the selections are perceived as value there is nothing wrong at all with small multiple bets.

        Example, you have four 2/1 shots but you think they should all be 6/4.

        Value for each is 40% * 3.0 = 120%.

        Value for the acca is 4 * 6/4 = 2.56% * (3.0**4) = 207.36%

        A big increase in value but a small chance of winning. A decent bet for small stakes in my eyes.

        Chris Murrell 20/04/18 4:02 AM Reply


  • Treackle Tart Ayr Friday 16:45 1pt e/w
    Mamoo Southwell Friday 19:25 1pt e/w
    Delagate This Lord Bath Friday 19:15 1pt e/w

    Spent way too long looking at the cards to even contemplate doing a write up.

    I also thought the fact that Nico was at Southwell not Ayr was interesting and have had a fun £2.5 e/w treble on his rides all for Ben Pauling.

    Nick Mazur 19/04/18 11:08 PM Reply


    • I expected to see Nico at Ayr too, but Noel Fehily has an excellent record on Nicky Henderson’s horses. (23 from 70 for 20.2pts at betfair SP)

      traf69 20/04/18 1:14 AM Reply


      • I wouldn’t have expected him up there today, not for Henderson?? Only has two runners I think, Noel is retained rider for the owners of Darius isn’t he, or first refusal anyway, and Theinval is usually ridden by JM, owners been very loyal to him on that horse I think. I wouldn’t have expected Nico to be on either. Doesn’t mean he isn’t going to clean up at Southwell of course! GL

        Josh 20/04/18 8:16 AM Reply


        • Not so much a case of expecting Nico to ride them as such, it’s just that when I see Henderson with one runner in a race, I’m used to seeing Nico’s name there too. I think Nico rides around 20% of all Hendo’s runners.

          traf69 20/04/18 8:46 AM Reply


          • Yep, my point here though is that it isn’t a ‘behavioural angle’ – i’m pretty sure that Nico would not have had the choice to ride either of those two horses at Ayr – so it is not a case of him going ‘ah I/agent/the boss don’t fancy either, i’m more likely to get a winner at Southwell’ more a case of ‘i have no rides at Ayr, I best go somewhere else!’ – that is the point i was making.

            Josh 20/04/18 9:07 AM Reply


  • Fairly indicative of (a) how things are going for me right now and (b) what happens when anyone goes public with an idea!

    Thursday’s Early Season Maidens
    2.25 Newmarket – Dive For Gold = 18th
    2.25 Newmarket – Karaginsky = 13th
    2.25 Newmarket – Military Band = 6th
    2.25 Newmarket – Mister Ambassador = 17th
    2.25 Newmarket – Surya = 11th
    4.10 Newmarket – Playfull Spirit = 4th

    0/6 for -6.00pts ==> 2/14 (14.28% SR) for -6.35pts ( -45.35% ROI)

    Friday’s Qualifiers :
    3.00 Newbury – Lah Ti Dar
    3.00 Newbury – White Light

    traf69 20/04/18 1:21 AM Reply


    • Any system/micro angle works or does not work over a period of time, regardless of short term performance. So judge it over a period of time and tweak it but only slightly. If it works it works if it does not it does not and that it how it goes. patience required, long term performance the goal.
      It took me five years whilst working, doing it part time, to come up with a ‘system(s)’ that work and I continue to tweak as I go.
      So keep going and test on this site. Feel free to share your thoughts.

      martin colwell 20/04/18 9:46 AM Reply


    • And I bet them all Chris for a whole £2 each so £12 behind, better luck today 🙂

      With your stats approach Chris I’m sure it will turn around as will SOTD which has provided me with over £5000 these past few years.
      Thank you

      Chris Mcilfatrick 20/04/18 10:14 AM Reply


    • Keep chipping away Chris, it’s much appreciated…
      The maidens are interesting this year… I get the impression from a few interviews at Newmarket in the week that not many trainers have got much grass work, if any, into a lot of their horses. Appleby has use of the private Moulton gallops – no idea how different they are from the public jockey club ones in Newmarket, but maybe his methods are just much improved, as his seem ready to go again- a few of Gosden’s seemed a bit backward/needing it, that’s his worst Craven meeting in some time I think. Mark Johnston said he hadn’t got any grass work into his, all AW, and last year he had a policy of not racing a 2YO without doing plenty of work on the turf- but he hasn’t been able to do that this year, hence why running more on AW as that’s what they have been training on. Interesting. Something to watch anyway, given how wet it has been. Many 2YO/maiden strings ‘could’ be way behind where they would normally be at this stage, fitness/experience wise.

      Josh 20/04/18 10:26 AM Reply


      • Oh, I intend to keep going! Just bemoaning my own current poor form, that’s all. Stats will always win out in the end!

        Summer Jumps micro time soon.

        traf69 20/04/18 10:51 AM Reply


      • Maybe its an over-generalization but I was look at Gosden as someone that always starts slow and gets going from Royal Ascot onwards even if the stats don’t necessarily back that up.

        Nick Mazur 20/04/18 11:15 AM Reply


  • Sorry, no write ups today had to be quick..
    16:05 Newbury
    KEEP IN LINE 20/1
    CAPE COVA 12/1

    17:15 AYR
    CARLTON RYAN 20/1
    FORGETTHESMALLTALK 8/1

    Stewart 20/04/18 8:25 AM Reply


    • Hi Stewart, are you suggesting win or each way for your selections or are you leaving it up to the reader?

      martin colwell 20/04/18 9:49 AM Reply


      • Sorry all 1pt ew , discretion as to what your 1pt is?

        Stewart 20/04/18 1:15 PM Reply


  • Josh

    Many thanks as usual for your thoughts on the Ayr card, hitting the bar shortly so don’t think I’ll be in much state later to update.

    Enjoy Bristol

    Cheers Mark

    Mark 20/04/18 11:10 AM Reply


    • No worries, enjoy the bar! Hopefully, at the very least, we can nab the winner of 4.45 of 5.15, that would make it a decent enough day! Have fun.

      Josh 20/04/18 11:12 AM Reply


  • 4.45 Ayr Bon Chic 20/1
    Been off since November probably due to the ground, won for me in October at Aintree at 33s in a class 4 and led from start to finish with the same 7lb claimer Charlotte Jones up.
    Returned 2 weeks later in a class 3 over the same course and distance and not surprisingly was caught 2 out and tired out of it finishing 7th.
    I think a combination of the step up in class and the shortish gap between the races was not in her favour.
    She will be refreshed now and hasn’t been slogging her guts out over the bad winter and I expect to see a better effort even though it’s still a class 3
    She won’t get an easy lead but can race prominently and I hope has plenty left in her tank come the business end.
    The trainer stats for this course and for coming back from a break although not fantastic, show he can get winners here and can ready them after a break.

    I’ve also done exactas and trifectas with Josh’s poke and Sp2a’s poke so if those 3 fill the first 3 spots i’ll be retiring 🙂

    Chris Mcilfatrick 20/04/18 12:28 PM Reply


  • Well the sun is shining here in Bristol this weekend so that can only mean one thing its cider time,enjoy your night out Josh I can recommend the Apple bar down on the waterside its proper

    christopher jones 20/04/18 12:36 PM Reply


    • oh i know it well haha. They have some strong stuff down your way! I think we are out for dinner this evening somewhere, and a joint 30th Bday tomorrow in another bar/pub. Shorts are on. Looking forward to it!

      Josh 20/04/18 12:40 PM Reply


  • 1st one lands Josh great round of jumping by Mellow Ben never headed

    christopher jones 20/04/18 1:47 PM Reply


    • yep cheers, can relax now, +6 points or thereabouts assured for the day, one/two more would be nice! Bounced out and made all as expected, as per vid, he did get racing a long way out at Fakenham.. easier lead today and better ground, and a fav worth taking on, 8 days after returning from a long break, crappy race, and on heavy. different today. Job done.

      Josh 20/04/18 1:49 PM Reply


  • Nice win Vlue At Risk and lost at 2m New
    Jumps last time are very tricky

    Pab888 20/04/18 4:20 PM Reply


    • Quite..sadly I didn’t have a penny on! But hope you and some others may have done..just backing the biggie on that stats pointers list of three not and bad approach for that race! He was fair bit bigger than 5s this morning. I tipped the 2nd at Aintree LTO…completely missed him. Back up in trip and assured decent ground. So,that race didn’t go well for me haha.

      Josh 20/04/18 4:24 PM Reply


  • Good day at Southwel on Southwel horses
    Ulis De Vassy won
    Riddlestown placed

    Riddlestown may win on Sothwel next races

    Pab888 20/04/18 6:22 PM Reply


Post A Reply