Members Daily Post: 19/04/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

JUMPS

Cheltenham

3.15 – Brillare Momento (all hncps) I3 13/2  S5

3.50 – Jenny’s Surprise (m1) w2 H3 G1  11/2 S1 (IF 11.00+ BFSP)

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FLAT

Newmarket – NONE

Ripon 

4.00 –

Lexington Times (micro class/class move) 16/1 UP

Short Work (micro seasons runs/90 days) w2 14 25/1  UP

Ma Fee Heela (micro seasons runs/90 days) 14  G1 14/1 S6  UP 7/1

(a flat Strategy 6 qualifier…1 quals against my trainer track profiles in section 1. 2 is top rated on one or more of the three ratings sets. 3 – 6/1 or bigger on morning prices -or at a time that is convenient to you if can only bet evening before, all evens out, i record results to widely available morning odds. 4 – bet, SP irrelevant)

4.35 –

Appointed (micro distance move) 20/1 UP

Daawy (micro seasons runs/90 days) 14 12/1 UP

6.15 –

Elysian Flyer (micro dist) I3 11/1  2nd 

Merry Banter (micro dist) G3 16/1 UP

One Boy (micro dist) 20/1 UP

Liberatum (micro class) H3 7/1 UP

Lexington Place (micro class) I3 7/1  UP

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to April 1st 2018)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 1st April 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 4/51,18p, -1.5)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +104)

 

NOTES

2.25 Newm – Monoxide – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen) UP

5.55 Newm – Echo Cove – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen) 14/1 (bet365) UP (running on 4th)

4.00 Ripon- Ma Fee Heela – 1 point win – 11/1 (gen) UP 7/1

 

IMPORTANT!!  The first of my flat ‘notes’ horses return… I have put ‘1 point win’ next to them, in effect so that you now know that ANY horse mentioned in Section 2, that has a staking amount next to it, IS a TIP, and as such will be counted in the results above. Last year, at the beginning of September, I changed approach a bit with the flat ‘tips’ (notes horses) and had a fair bit of success over the next 10 weeks or so. Before, I tried to agonise over one ‘tip of the day’…essentially I would agonise over which of those three horses above to tip, and invariably pick the wrong one. My eyes are generally focused on 8/1+ shots, and I very much see the ‘notes’ horses as A TEST!! As an example, i back all of my own Jumps TIPs/Notes horses to £20 per point. BTW, it’s taken me 5/6 years of knowing what I am doing to feel comfortable at that staking level, and as always advised, start very small and use an adequate bank – there is all the time in the world to build up profits/stakes, don’t be greedy, as it will end in tears. Anyway, these ‘Flat’ tips will get £10 pp from me. Back last Sept/Oct I was betting £5s as I felt my way in, but proved to myself I can do it on the level, with this approach. And what is this approach… well essentially I am using ALL stats qualifiers on this page somewhere (Section 1, my track stats, Sec 2 the Test Zone, Sec 4 any big meeting notes) as my foundation/starting point. I am then using my own subjective judgement and how I read a horse/profile/race to decide whether I want to ‘tip’ them, and whether I myself want to have more on them than I otherwise would do. You may wish to take a watching brief for the first few weeks of the season. Given the odds, and my rusty Flat eyes, these could have a losing run of 30-50, well it’s likely they could at some point. If you are going to follow, staking is up to you, but start small if so. You do have to get to a point where you trust these selections and as I said, in my own mind, it is very much a test. But, having creamed around +130 points last Sept/Oct from this very approach on the flat, from around  160 odd 1 point win bets, it’s a test that has shown promise 🙂 With that said, and all those caveats out the way, let’s crack on… I should add…my general MO is to focus on those lightly raced flat horses ‘open to improvement’ and that may be ‘doing something different’. There will be the odd more exposed handicapper that just stands out. 

Monoxide… well, in short, you won’t go wrong backing any Meade trained maiden runner on the Rowley, or indeed probably the July course, especially those that haven’t had a run, or only one start. Meade has moved training base, relocating from Newmarket to Lambourn, so we shall see if that has an effect. He had a winner in France in recent days so I assume they are up and running just fine. He is better with his 2YO first time starters but is 3/4,4p with all maiden runners here since 2015. And as per the Craven notes below, is 3/4,3p at this meeting with horses that have had 0-1 career start. This horse is very well bred from what I can see and like most in here ‘could be anything’. He may need the run, may be green etc, but there is method as above. IF he continues to target maiden races here, we will back the odd nice winner over time, at all odds. At 14s, given all of that, I couldn’t help myself. I should mention Dragon Man I had some change on given Hannon has booked Moore but then I took a look at his 3YO maiden stats… Hannon is only 1/33 with those since 2015, 0/20,5p on the Rowley. Not impossible, but the stats are not too flattering. Maybe Rockforce is worth a very small bet BFSP just in case, but the market suggests he may come on plenty for the experience. 

Echo Cove– I have used the Jane C-H stats from the Craven notes here, which were a small sample but she had a 40/1 shot very nearly win for us on Day 1 of this meeting, which I thought was a good sign. This horse also has some decent form- well, take a look at his last run. He ran well there, having pulled, in a small field. But, the winner that day, Old Persian, won yesterday here for C Appleby,and the second from that race for Noseda hasn’t stopped winning since and was rated 101 when last seen at Newcastle, winning a decent pot. So, there is substance there. He will appreciate the stronger pace here/big field I suspect. He makes handicap debut and JCH has such winners, although no prolific, 0/3,1p at the track with such sorts. Clearly there will be more to come this season and given the form of that last run is worth adding to the tracker whatever he does today. He may need the run, but I get 14s to find out, and I thought i’d have a dabble.

Ma Fee Heela – an interesting runner here that also qualifiers on Flat Strategy 6, as above in Section 1. Now, O’Meara won this very same race I think in 2016 with a horse just like this one… Dandyleekie who i think may have the same owners…anyway, he rocked up here over 6f in the mud, his first run for O’Meara, having got him from Ireland, and his first run of the season… Ma Fee Heela has exactly the same profile really! He is lightly raced but has some decent efforts to his name in Ireland, in big fields. His mark has come down a bit and O’Meara does improve horses. He is also ‘in form’. (when I say that I am referring to the geegeez 14 and/or 30 as per the Key) He is top rated on Geegeez speed by a mile here. I think the ground is ok, but it is a question for most in here. It should dry out given the weather and any way, at that price, I can take a small chance. O’Meara is also 2/7 at the track with stable newcomers (Danyleekie will be one) and of course we have the base stats in Section 1 – he has a decent record here with handicappers making seasonal debut/no run last 90 days.

So, that’s the case for those…

I did stare long and hard at that 6.15… I have had small nibbles on Elysian Flyer and Merry Banter for Midgley, but there were a few niggles. Fitness is clearly a question for the former but he is well handicapped and has won after some sort of break before, but not this long. Merry Banter.. i was put off tipping him due to the jockey..were Harrison Shaw on say, or another one, I may have tipped him at 20s. Maybe I will regret not doing so. He is drawn near the rail and can front run. He is well handicapped on some decent old form, should handle the ground ok, and has had a run to blow the cobwebs away. However, his jockey is 2/108 so far, both winners on the AW, 0/32,3p in turf handicaps. It could be he has just ridden a load of donkeys etc, and maybe 20s allows the chance- I think it does for a saver given all the other positives, but I didn’t want my ‘flat tipping stake’ on him. Clearly i’ll be annoyed if he makes all against the rail, which he may do! Esp if three above fail to deliver.

Right, that’s the lot I think. You have to get used to missed winners in this game, there will be many a winner on these pages you don’t back, that’s the nature of my approach. With any luck the Strategies and my ‘notes horses’ in this section, will find plenty, as will any of your own analysis. On we go.

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Re-cap… urgh… a -8 point tipping blowout and not much to cheer at Cheltenham. I’ll just stare out the window and contemplate 🙂  Maybe I tried to cover a bit too much there and rushed through too many races, but I say that with hindsight. And I was due a poor day on the ‘Festival tipping’ front. Maybe no surprise it has come on the first day of a jumps meeting that had Good in the going for quite some time. Maybe i’m just a jumps mudlark!  Traffic Fluide… well I wasn’t close to him but maybe I should have been… the post race thinking…(and I say this for me to absorb moving forward) easy win over hurdles LTO to boost his confidence/clearly in good heart/first run on good for an age/previously rated in high 150s, now 140/had plenty of smart form in G1/2 high class races/headgear switch. So, he wasn’t a shock winner. The Henderson handicap hurdle winner..well he was on the race trends ‘shortlist’ of 8, the trainer was ‘in form’ (geegeez indicators, not many were), the horse ‘could be anything’ and he actually hit the Henderson ran in a C4/5/6 stat in the meeting notes below, which i missed! Damn. So, a positive there, in the sense I was probably a couple of steps/some clearer thinking from being closer to even considering him in more depth. Monbeg Theatre at 20s was probably the most annoying. I noted his trainer form in the race which jumped out somewhat, the fact he would be in the van (although I didn’t think he’d get such an easy lead) , the horse had been in good form, was stepping up in trip, returning to better ground, nothing on back with decent claimer on. He’d been off for an age before this season but had some decent enough novice form to his name. I did stare at him for a while, and have clearly left him. It was just one of those days, that I haven’t had in a good 5 weeks+, so i’ll live with it. But plenty of learning points to hammer into my head there. 

Nothing from Cheltenham on Thursday, it’s a mares only card and in any case after a day like that I am never in the right mindset to attack such races cold, for tipping purposes. I’ll be sticking to delving through section 1 and any Craven notes, which along with a Paddy Brennan micro 8/1 winner in test zone, and R Hannon’s 25/1 winner at Newmarket, provided some cheer. Hopefully some of you had a nibble on that one. 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

Paddy Brennan (14/1<  guide)

2.40 Chelt – Socksy (m3) UP

3.15 Chelt – Oscar Rose (m1) 3rd

3.50 Chelt – Jennys Surprise (m3)

5.35 Chelt – Tashunka (m1/2) UP

R Hobson (33/1< guide)

2.05 Chelt – Dame Rose UP

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4.Any general messages/updates etc

Newmarket Craven Notes

Craven Meeting trainer pointers : Read/download/print HERE>>>

Day 1… 3/11,4p,+4 ,

Day 2.. 2/13,4p, +17

Running total… 5/24, 8p, +21

 

Day 3

1.50 – Captain Jameson 6/1 UP

2.25 – Rockforce 33/1 2nd 33/1/ Karaginsky 11/2 UP/ Monoxide 14/1 UP/ Dragon Moon 9/1 UP / Surya 5/1 UP

3.00 – Brando 10/3 WON 9/2  / Magical Memory 16/1 UP

3.35 – Glorious Journey 13/2 UP/ Masar 11/2 WON 11/2>7/2 / Roaring Lion 8/13  UP

4.10 – Playfull Spirit 6/1

4.45 – Nordic Lights 5/1 WON 5/1>5/2/ Argentello 13/8 UP / Bedouin’s Story 4/1  UP

5.20 – African Jazz 3/1 UP / Guardsman 18/1 / Stream of Stars 6/1  2nd

5.55 – Morlock 15/2  UP/ Echo Cove 12/1  UP

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Cheltenham 2 Day April 2018

Those trainers with 5 or more winners at the last 5 meetings…

Nicky Henderson

45 bets / 6 wins / 14p / 13% sr / -16 SP / -12 BFSP / AE 0.75

  • Top 2 LTO: 5/17,7p, +12
  • 1 win this season: 5/23,7p, +6
  • Ran in C4/5/6 LTO: 4/12,5p, +16

Fergal O’Brien

17 bets / 5 wins / 6p / 29% sr / +35 SP / +54 BFSP

Phillip Hobbs

37 bets / 5 wins / 10p / 13% sr / -11 SP / -10 BFSP / AE 1.00

  • Class 2: 4/16,4p, +1
  • Distance move: up 0.5/1/1.5f : 4/10,5p, +11

Dan Skelton

18 bets / 5 wins / 9p / 28% sr / +8 SP / +11 BFSP / AE 1.63

  • Handicaps: 3/11,6p, +12
  • 7 or 8 career runs: 4/5,4p, +11

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

40 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Hi Josh

    A few David O’Meara runners caught my eye in the qualifiers and i was just wondering what his yard’s record is like at Ripon?

    2:15 Oxygenic
    2:50 Conversant
    4:00 Summerghand/Ma Fee Heela
    4:35 Daawy

    Not a bad line up to my eye.

    Darren 18/04/18 7:25 PM Reply


    • 42 winners from 277 runners, 91 places. Win P&L – 25, each way P&L – 83, so not great. His 3 and 4 YO do better overall.

      martin colwell 18/04/18 10:05 PM Reply


      • Thanks Martin

        That’s put an end to that thinking

        Darren 18/04/18 10:08 PM Reply


        • (His horses in section 1 are qualifiers due to his record at Ripon against said angle!! In last 3 years. The only one of note was those that hadn’t had a run this season/first run in 90 days. Oh and there is a distance move stat also. No other systematic way in. He does well enough here to use any runner as a ‘starting point’ but you can’t go backing all of his runners blind)

          Josh 18/04/18 10:15 PM Reply


        • His handicappers have done better than his non handicappers but Josh is of course right, there is an angle in as he has had 42 winners over the past 5 years.

          martin colwell 18/04/18 10:35 PM Reply


          • yes sorry if that was a bit abrupt… clearly all qualifiers in section 1 are against my own unique track stats, for the trainer at said track against my profile… so, in terms of my handicap research, then by definition the trainer has some sort of decent record at the track against said angle, otherwise they wouldn’t be posted 🙂 Wasn’t sure if that was clear from Darren’s initial comment, but I may have the wrong end of the stick. Clearly any such micro qualifier can be used as a starting point before looking at a trainer’s wider record at said track, if needs be, esp when falling outside of a strategy – often the micro angles will be very micro,,, the seasons runs stats/no run 90 days stats those O’Meara qualifiers hit above are, in the last 3 full seasons..
            • D O’Meara/0: 17 bets / 4 wins / 5p / 24% sr / +19 SP / +25 BFSP / AE 2.19

            Josh

            Josh 18/04/18 11:42 PM Reply


  • Evening,
    As I said before Thursday last week, what form have a lot of these got (the jumpers)?, the field sizes show what an end of season look this meeting has. I for one will not be betting at Cheltenham tomorrow.
    Maybe I am talking through my pocket and the flat hasn’t really got going either, the crossover is when we should always tread carefully, the field sizes look like a wet November handicap at Doncaster… you can find them, but, good luck doing so!!
    Will stick with Newmarket handicaps tomorrow and again at Newbury on Friday, may have a dabble at Ayr, but, probably only on the Scottish National, but, only light stakes.
    It is always a muddling time and until the weather calms down again, too much sun is ok, but, the ground in some parts is still sodden..we will have muddling results…you have been warned!!

    Stewart 18/04/18 7:56 PM Reply


    • I think today’s field sizes are a result of a soft ground Cheltenham and all the wet weather the past 6 weeks. They were much bigger fields than normal. I suspect Ayr will be a little more pro-typical.

      Nick Mazur 18/04/18 10:24 PM Reply


    • Sorry for this, think i had a mad moment after work, as they say, always read what you write first, think i was on the glass half empty juice yesterday.
      Selections on this bright sunny, glass half full day to follow!
      Thanks for the concern Nick…

      Stewart 19/04/18 7:40 AM Reply


  • Still Believing Cheltenham Thursday 15:50 1pt e/w-Price taken 14/1-This mare was 2nd in a class 2 mares chase finale at Haydock 12 months ago off a mark of 127. She is down to a mark of 115 tomorrow which is also 1lb below his last winning mark which happened to be at the track. Both of those runs were on good ground. A lot of these look better suited on softer ground. Looked overpriced to me.
    Magical Memory Newmarket Thursday 15:00 1pt e/w-Price taken 14/1-Looks a massive price to me. Goes well fresh. Won this 2 years ago off a break and last year was 2nd in a Group 2 to tasleet who was 2nd in 3 grade 1s. Whilst he is not a Group 1 horse he is pretty consistent when it comes to Group 2s (12) and Group 3s (113). We know he handles the track (431 at the track). Frankie gets on extremely well with him and outside of Group 1s he has 5 wins and a 2nd from 6 rides. Trainer is in form and has an excellent record in 6f races at the meeting. The favourite has to be taken on given he has yet to race at the track and hasn’t raced since last year plus Fabre is in poor form with just winners in the last 30 days with a number of fancied runners running poorly at the last televised meeting. A number of these are unproven at the track and may need the run so I really expected him to go close.
    Quick Look Ripon Thursday 16:00 1pt e/w-Price taken 12/1-I like early season races since you can weed out a number of runners relatively safely who will need their first run back. The pick is not only race fit but is proven on soft ground. Runs from stall 6 which will be fine particularly as most of the pace is drawn low. Harrison Shaw is 6/24, 13p in handicaps for the trainer in 2018 and 2/6, 3p in handicaps at the track in general. With his 5lb claim the horse is effectively running off 2lbs lower than his last wining mark.

    Nick Mazur 18/04/18 10:22 PM Reply


  • Wednesday’s Early Season Maidens
    4.10 Newmarket – Strings Of Life WON at 3.51
    4.45 Newmarket – Award Winning 6th at 5.80
    4.45 Newmarket – Rococo 3rd at 4.60
    5.20 Newmarket – Asoof 3rd at 4.63
    5.20 Newmarket – Mythical Queen 4th at 8.60

    1/5 for -1.61pts ==> 2/8 (25.00% SR) for -0.35pts ( -4.4% ROI)

    Thursday’s Qualifiers :

    2.25 Newmarket Dive For Gold
    2.25 Newmarket Karaginsky
    2.25 Newmarket Military Band
    2.25 Newmarket Mister Ambassador
    2.25 Newmarket Surya
    4.10 Newmarket Playfull Spirit

    traf69 19/04/18 1:08 AM Reply


  • Morning, here are today’s selections.
    13:50 Newmarket
    DESERT DOCTOR 9/1 bbright
    Looks progressive having won three of its five latest runs has proven form over this 6f distance having won twice from five previous runs over trip trainer Ed Walker has won two from twelve runners in the last fortnight giving hope for a good run
    DRAGONS TAIL 15/2 gen
    He may need this, he may not that is the gambel I am taking, getting Mr Kingscote in the saddle is significant for me and if he reproduces the Curragh form he should take this.

    16:00 Ripon
    RIGHT TOUCH 6/1 gen
    A favourite eurgh….but, i think it will drift due to my next selection being bet off the boards probably take sp on this and price on the other..Fit from the AW and has a good record around this track. Looks to be on decent mark and at the current odds looks a decent ew bet
    QUICK LOOK 10/1 lads
    Can`t disagree with anything Nick has put before, won on soft before and won a couple at back end of last year, will today be fitter than most of these giving it the upper hand.

    Stewart 19/04/18 7:54 AM Reply


  • Tough day yesterday, Josh, but you weren’t alone.

    I had a shocker, as did pretty much everyone I follow and I’d guess that yesterday was my worst day in the past 5 years. The betting banks took some heavy damage, but that’s why we have a bank.

    traf69 19/04/18 8:17 AM Reply


    • Correct, crossbar hit with a few yesterday that led over the last, Art of Payroll, Verni. Whataknight was 2nd etc.

      Way it goes, thank god for betting banks, deep breath, move on.

      Paul 19/04/18 9:19 AM Reply


    • Yep, frustrating, I just hate being that rubbish when attacking 4 races, and only a distant running on 2nd to cheer on haha. But, that’s how it goes, thanks to Hannon’s winner I escaped the day with a bit of beer money in the end, but that’s never my concern, the professional pride to a long overdue battering! On we go.

      Josh 19/04/18 11:22 AM Reply


  • ITV racing.
    i’ll just be having a few fun bets to add a bit of interest while watching.
    Newmarket.
    1-50. Music Society 11-4, money back as a free bet if 2nd with skybet.
    2-25. pure lottery so i’ve gone for Here’s Alice 20-1 who gets the mares 5lb allowance.
    3-00. Perfect Pasture 14-1 might be worth a chance upped in grade but hopefully first time blinkers will bring about the improvement needed.
    3-35. Just Brilliant 28-1 seems overpriced, yard expect big things in future worth a chance at the price.
    Cheltenham.
    2-40. anything could win this and my pin dropped on Socksy 9-2.
    not on telly.
    3-15. every man and his dog is tipping Brillare Momento 6-1 can’t really argue with the logic but have a sneaky feeling Whatdjazz 12-1 could run a big race.

    martin whittle 19/04/18 8:37 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh

    Thankyou once again for the through the card analysis at Cheltenham yesterday we had a brilliant day a lot less people around than at the Festival and you pointed us in the direction of the first winner and I always back your tips each way so a couple of placed payouts and of course the great 33/1 bfsp winner at Newmarket and my son picked out Champagne Express from your list of qualifiers so the losses on the day were not as bad as they could have been onwards to better days ahead

    Regards

    Peter L

    peter0104 19/04/18 9:29 AM Reply


    • Hi Peter,
      Ah well that is good to read, glad you had the odd horse to cheer, either into places or at Newmarket! I do enjoy reading when you/relatives, use the pointers/info to land on a winner, great stuff.
      It was an abject performance from me really, woolly headed, but i’m a hard taskmaster and I think I just rushed through too much- it can be a tad too busy at this time of year what with the Flat etc getting going, and of course the massive change in conditions. I hate being that rubbish on an afternoon! every winner in the 4 races I tipped in made sense, but alas, I couldn’t quite find one or two, but never mind. Hannon did dig me out of a personal punting hole!! I shouldn’t beat myself up too much, i was close to the 20/1 Snowden winner, which while annoying i’ll try and see the positives. Why i didn’t look at Hendo’s more closely I don’t know…shortlist of 8, hit a stats angle for the meeting notes,he was in cracking form (many in race were not), horse ‘could be anything’ 20s/16s. Never mind.
      I should have given you that novice handicap winner also, for O’Brien…why I didn’t just use a horse that hit my content I don’t know.. 8/1, he qualified against Brennan angle, and Obrien for all runners at the meeting- given I didn’t have any overly strong views on race no idea why I didn’t just put him in mix! Always something to improve on, but sounds like you had an ok day, and the odd horse to cheer at least/get excited over the last, which always helps!
      Yep, on we go, hopefully I can get the jumps good ground eyes working for Ayr/Punchy!
      Josh

      Josh 19/04/18 10:50 AM Reply


  • Tips – we had a loser and a 20/1 each way second yesterday and made 2 points, so we are +3 points in April. 3.15 Chn, The Organist, 5/1 x 2 points win. If it drfits go 1 point each way. Ran 5th in the Coral Cup and was 4th in this race in 2017 and will have the stamina to see it out. And we will back the two Saeed Bin Suroor runners at Newcastle to win, 6.10 Extra Mile at 7/4 BOG and 8.15 Desert Frost at 5/2 BPG, both 2 points win.
    Maybe one more later, waiting for some info.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 19/04/18 10:58 AM Reply


  • Cheltenham…

    I’ve had a brief look at the 3.15, and for a bit of fun (£2.50 on each for interest for me on BetfExch) i’ve gone for… Whatzdjazz 10s / Melangerie 16s / Awesome Rosie 16s / Rejaah 33s – bigger prices than that on the machine. Not tips obviously, but I can’t seem to help myself with these big field handicap hurdles, although always dangerous when I have no stats/trends to help me!

    Josh

    Josh 19/04/18 11:06 AM Reply


    • I’ve just finished looking at this race and feel there’s a few good ground horses waiting for this going to show their best.
      I’ve also had a little something on Reejah 33s but my main one I focused on was Indian Stream
      Indian Stream was 3rd last year in front of The Organist 4th.
      Indian gave 10lb last year to The Organist, who has been well backed today, but today only gives 3lb.
      I feel @ 20s it was a tickle
      Midnight Jazz @22s was also worth a little interest for me.

      gallou 19/04/18 11:38 AM Reply


      • Checked through previous winners of this race and the biggest priced winner of the last 10 years was 9/1.
        Hmmmm

        gallou 19/04/18 11:44 AM Reply


        • Ah well, never let price put you off! A guide, and my shrapnel is already scattered haha. Not many meetings in last decade will have been on the back of such a torrid winter/recent bog like conditions though, which may have some impact on market, which is often based on ‘recent form’ etc. Who knows. You’d be kicking yourself if you didn’t back a 16s winner due to being guided by such a stat.

          Josh 19/04/18 11:52 AM Reply


    • Ah bugger, mixed emotions there, the 1-2 from the 4, 33/1 winner… maybe I need to sharpen up my ‘attacking a handicap hurdle cold’ eyes and get a bit more confident. Damn.

      Josh 19/04/18 3:27 PM Reply


      • I’m happy. Ok the main interest was stuffed but a 33/1 consolation makes up for it. Stuffed that no bigger than 9/1 stat too.

        gallou 19/04/18 3:31 PM Reply


        • Ah price, OR and Weight stats are prob the three to be most cautious with! Yep, well and truly busted, great ride on winner, prob won it given second hit trouble, clean passage prob wins, but that’s race riding.

          Josh 19/04/18 3:33 PM Reply


  • Bit of a short price but my late father told me to take note when A. fabre sends a horse over because it’s not for a day trip.
    3:00 Newmarket LE BRIVADO 13/8

    Warren bottomley 19/04/18 12:09 PM Reply


    • Fabre’s runners win more than their fair share, but aren’t profitable to back blindly.

      traf69 19/04/18 12:52 PM Reply


  • (tomorrow’s members post is taking shape, some Ayr Scot Nat trainer pointers just posted for those of you who may wish to use them to attack the cards etc)

    Josh 19/04/18 12:40 PM Reply


  • AYR: stats/notes report… trainers/some race stats trends for 3x hncp h + Scottish Nat

    https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Scottish-National-Meeting-2018.pdf

    Josh

    Josh 19/04/18 2:15 PM Reply


  • Josh, in the 2.25 Rock force finished 2nd

    Gavin 19/04/18 3:30 PM Reply


    • Ah yes, missed that. You have an EW nibble?

      Josh 19/04/18 3:35 PM Reply


      • Yep I did 🙂

        Gavin 19/04/18 3:37 PM Reply


        • Me to.
          In fact I’ve nearly trebled my betting bank in two days with all the info on here and snowy over at tipster platforms which Josh recommended. He tipped REJAAH which I got 33/1 in the 3:15 at Cheltenham.

          warren bottomley 19/04/18 5:25 PM Reply


          • good stuff Warren, ah, if only i’d have tipped him too as per comments above. Bugger! I’ll have to see if they want to do another £1 trial for Snowy, was worth it over the Xmas period, but pleased to read he is clearly doing something right/you’re happy with them. I rarely advised a dud haha, or try not to, on the tipster service front.

            Josh 19/04/18 5:29 PM Reply


          • Yes it’s ticking over nicely. He Did have a quiet aintree but doing well since. Tips are not every day. But the write ups are superb so you know the angle he his tackling each race he tips in. Very thorough like yourself. He did also tip TRAFFIC FLUIDE yesterday at Cheltenham. I think the £1 trial payed for itself the day you posted the offer with a 14 or 16/1 winner if I remember rightly.

            Warren Bottomley 19/04/18 5:38 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh,
    I backed Star of Southwold for a fiver in the 5:20 at Newmarket. Think it may have qualified under your Craven Report, Hannon in Non Handicaps? Anyway thanks to you as i would not have backed it even if i have misread the report!

    tryit31 19/04/18 5:45 PM Reply


    • Ah, well, I may have missed him, oh balls, that happens with that approach, you should have said!! 🙂 In truth that stat referred to non handicaps, exc maidens and prob should have meant novices also..but only 1 such runner in that race type..stats was aimed at non maiden/novice races I think…but he would have also loitered in the 14/1-25/1 range for a time, before that final drift, so you’d have been entitled to back him leading up to race under that stat also!

      But, as written, you have read the stat just fine! Well done for nabbing him and for absorbing the notes, sadly nothing on him up here.
      Josh

      Josh 19/04/18 5:55 PM Reply


  • 19 Apr 18
    10:42
    Won
    Single – Each Way:
    Stake: 6.00 – Returns: 105.75
    3:15 Cheltenham – Win
    Rejaah @ Guaranteed Price (28/1) 4@1/4
    saves the day 🙂

    martin whittle 19/04/18 6:25 PM Reply


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