Free Daily Post: 18/04/18 (complete)

TIPS

5.00 Chelt

Lovely Job – 1.5 points win – 13/2 (gen) UP poor

What Happens Now – 1.5 points win – 7/1 (gen) UP poor

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This morning has flown by somewhat so I’ll try and be brief…

Lovely Job… is very consistent, unexposed, will enjoy underfoot conditions and has gone well fresh in the past. O’Brien has a good record at this meeting with all runners and this one, along with McCains, should be up in the van from the off. With any luck they are 1-2 the whole way round! I’d like to think this has been a target and he should go well if fit enough. There are many yards at the moment where I can’t work out if they are in form, out of form, or in the middle! Given there have been so many recent raced run on a bog, + two massive Festivals with very competitive racing, some yards (inc this one) may seem out of sorts, when in fact there is nothing wrong at all! So, we shall see, but on paper this one should give it a good go.

What Happens Now – he has course form, relishes decent ground and stays well. His run the last day was after a mid-season break and i’d like to think this has been a plan. He could try and lead these all and he may stay there. He is still unexposed enough and has only raced at C2 once before. He does have to find a bit if some of the others run up to their marks (which I am not convinced many will) and maybe he won’t be good enough, but at 7s I was happy to take a poke.

Of the rest…well Singlefarmpayment has an obvious chance back on good ground but I don’t see any value in his price. He is usually held up, he can be keen, and he can hit a fence. He’s had a few chances now and has had a long enough season. But, this is  a great opportunity and if there is one horse in the race that will go ‘whoosh’ after the last, it is him. But I can enjoy him hacking up without any money on at 3/1. No bother.

Of the bigger priced ones…Another Hero WON  is interesting to a point and has won after a monster break before.. I felt 10s wasn’t big enough though given the yard, the break and his inconsistent form. But, at his best, he would be in the mix I think.

Coologue is clearly the poke/interesting biggie…20s+…some money coming…all hope/faith rests on a return to decent ground, but he was PU on a sound enough surface a few runs back… it was just too much of a leap of faith really for me, but he could be worth some change just in case! Maybe it has been all about the ground…i’d be interested in him back here in the autumn, if he shows more here. If is very well handicapped again now and handles the track well, having won here before. I can see the case at a price, but just too many Ps for me!

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That’s the lot on the free post from me today. GL with any bets.

Josh

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6 Comments

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  • AW BETS

    Kempton
    6.15 Duba Plains
    9.15 Ubla
    9.15 Inshaa

    colin leafe 18/04/18 10:25 AM Reply


  • Newmarket, Beverley and Kempton ratings for Wednesday 18th April and Newmarket Jackstar review.

    Newmarket Jackstar race review

    The stable confidence in Jackstar reflected by the shortening price helped to point one in the right direction here. Jackstar was a tall athletic strongly made colt without the bulkiness of Blown By Wind from Windsor yesterday. Van Beethoven was the second best looker but didn’t have the muscle tone or quite the scope as yet of Jackstar. The result may be questioned by those who say Van Beethoven missed the break and Ynys Mon didn’t get a run at a vital moment. My feeling is that had either of these events not occurred maybe the 2nd and 3rd positions would have been reversed but the winner would still be Jackstar. Could be Tom’s Gimcrack horse.

    I am concerned that these ratings are on the high side, a sunny day at HQ can make them look bigger and better than they are. Some collateral form pretty soon will come in handy. The two with previous experience did well, so give the form of the winner and Van B a boost, the others all on debut are probably around the same quality as Ynys Mon.

    Jackstar 92
    Ynys Mon 79
    Van Beethoven 87 Lots of room for development
    I Am A Dreamer – short on quality75
    Ballistic – typical chunky Kodiac, looked a bit hairy 78
    Treasure Quest – Bit light 74
    Pesci – 76
    Alloysius Lilius 77

    Photos at https://imgur.com/a/JErLm

    18th April Newmarket 4.10

    Ratings

    1. Hard Forest, Red Hut Red
    2. Ginger Nut, Strings Of Life, Swiss Miss

    No bet as it is probably between Hard Forest, Red Nut Red and Strings Of Life but can’t see a way in before seeing them.

    Kempton 18th April 5.45

    Ratings
    1. Dancing On A Dream
    2. Cococabala
    3. Jungleinthebungle, Kingi Compton.

    Ratings Bet 1pt win Dancing On A Dream

    Unless D on a D is a good one Jungleinthebungle from stall 3 should have too much for these. Also Arthur’s Spirit from stall 1 is practically a winner without a penalty, as had Jason Watson not gone for home far too soon lto, he should have won. My hope is that the two apprentices Bradley on Jungle and Watson on Arthurs Spirit get in to a burn up, for once allowing the more conservative approach of JPS to pay off on Dancing On A Dream.

    Beverley abandoned.
    Hugh

    alpha2 18/04/18 10:32 AM Reply


    • Hi Alpha2

      Excellent analysis you are providing.
      I haven’t read the RP today so don’t know what connections of Jackstar have in mind but the Coventry stakes must be high on the list of possibilities.
      Looks a horse to follow in the first half of the season anyway.

      regards
      Andy

      Andrew Gilmore 18/04/18 1:56 PM Reply


  • Golf tips – The European tour heads to Morocco this week. Last week our sole selection Jorge Campillo placed at 40/1. As he is in form we will go with him again this week at 33/1, 1 point each way. We will also go with Joost Luiten at 18/1, 2 points each way. He needs to push on in 2018 and make the world top 50 and stay there.

    In the U.S. we had a 7th place and a non runner last week. This week we have one selection, Scott Piercy at 66/1, 1 point each way. He has the game that suits this course and so is a value bet.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 18/04/18 11:08 AM Reply


  • JOSH`S TIP

    Can`t argue with Josh`s write up. The reasoning for the 2 he has tipped is sound and Coologue is clearly the best handicapped horse in the race but has something to prove, also the 20/1 has long gone, now as low as 12/1.
    I would just like to throw in DELUSIONOFGRANDEUR. He is 4 from 5 over the distance, ran half of the National on unsuitable ground ( surely Ms Smith wouldn`t run if not recovered ) ? He prefers smallish fields ( even this one may be pushing it ) BUT you can back him at 20/1 for 4 places on B365 ( there I go again ) and I think he is a good ew bet at those Odds / Places ! The trainer does have 2 in the race and I don`t quite know what to make of the other one ?

    Kevin Gibbard 18/04/18 12:35 PM Reply


  • Hi Guys, Just read on one of the sites that Giants Causeway has just passed away, age 21. A real superstar!

    Allan 18/04/18 12:48 PM Reply


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