3.10 Exeter- Ballyheigue Bay – 1.5 points win – 4/1 (bet365/PP/BetfS/Uni/BetS/888) 7/2 (gen) 2nd...
Ah bugger, Exeter has gone from Soft/Good to soft in places, to Heavy (only meant to get showers later in afternoon!) in the space of no time..he has dictated, gone his own pace,jumped well..just ran out of gas/outstayed over the last…didn’t stay, certainly didn’t stay on that ground/winner ploughed through it better up straight. Better ground and maybe he skips away but that’s racing. Maybe best horse on day won regardless of weather, but I don’t like not knowing! Winner no shock, as below. Well, none of them would have had me falling off my seat. BB has a make all win in him over fences for sure, when on better ground.
Sometimes I look at a race and a horse just leaps off the page and this one, at 4s, did just that. So, we know what happens now! 🙂 That may seem on the short end for me but this is a 6 runner race and I think he deserves to be sent off fav, 3/1, 5/2.
Firstly, he arrives here in form, having yet to run a bad race over hurdles this season, inc a couple of wins at C3 level. It’s possible he has now hit his ratings ceiling over hurdles, of 127. He returns to fences here for the first time since November 2016. Despite his age he is lightly raced and only 2/9, 5p in chases. There is one race I was particularly interested in, the 2015 London National. This was a fiercely competitive C2 handicap chase over 29f where he led/pressed leaders for most of the way round. He only just failed to stay there, beaten 3L or so. It was a gallant effort off a mark of 131. He is back to 122 here, his last winning chase mark, and he does look like a stayer. He has a touch of class and is in form- which can’t be said about most of his rivals here. There were two other big positives…. Gordon continues in fine form, 4/14,8p in the last 14 days…and PACE… I fully expect Cannon to try and make all here. If he does I don’t think anything will live with him, given he was comfortable doing so in that London Nat and arrives here in form. There should be no excuses really. Provided he remembers how to jump a fence and lifts his feet, he should play catch me if you can. Maybe it will take a chase run or two to get his eye in again, but I was happy to take a chance at 4/1, in the context of this race, given all of the above.
Of the rest..well I was happy to take them on at the prices…Wizzards Bridge arrives in form but has a major stamina doubt for me, in the context of his odds. Royal P has questions to answer including his well-being and stamina. The yard are in form and I won’t be shocked if he runs a big race in first time CP, but he isn’t 10s+ here, I can leave at 5s. Spookydooky would have some sort of chance but may want this to dry out further. The run over 31f in Feb 2017 would give him a squeak but i get nosebleeds backing a Jonjo horse at single figure odds, certainly under 8s- it isn’t good for the health given how inconsistent they are, and thehorse has as many poor runs as good ones. More signs of life the last day, staying on and a return to some sort of form, but I don’t think he will catch BB. Yanmere is short enough for one who relies on rivals falling in a hole in hock deep mud over about 10 miles. I expect him to get out-paced at some point here, given it is soft and a small field, and I don’t think BB will stop, provided he jumps well. I won’t be surprised if he just keeps going and sometimes that can be enough, but 9/2 didn’t feel generous. The Bailey horse is just too inconsistent for me in the context of his price of 6/1 and is just a slow old boat now really. At his best he could go close, but again I can sleep well if he does bounce back.
In effect, at the prices, BB is the only one that would make me annoyed with myself, were I not to have a good go, and were he to win. I think this is all about how he takes to fences again, his first run over them for a while. Clearly if he repeats that London National effort – and I see no reason why he shouldn’t even 3 years later, (bar the ‘been hurdling for a while caveat’)- he will demolish this lot for me, from the front.
That’s the lot for today.
The free micro systems/angles… will stop now for the Jumps.. I need to review them, which I haven’t done for too long now, to see which ones are working and whether it’s worth bothering persevering with some etc.
Good luck with any bets,