Members Daily Post: 17/04/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Jumps

Exeter

2.35 –

Bact To Black (all hncps) ES 6/1 S3  UP

Inch Lala (hncp h + m1) 33/1 UP

3.45 – Tea Time Fred (m1) ES+ 12/1 S2 S3A  UP

 

Carlisle

5.05 – Wolf Sword (hncp c + m1) ES 11/2 S3 2nd 

 

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Flat

Newmarket (Rowley)

None.

(no qualifiers against my Flat Trainer Track Profiles 2018 stats pack which is a work in progress. These stats are different from ‘one off’ big meeting notes as with the Craven pointers in Section 4 below) 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to April 1st 2018)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 1st April 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’ ‘aka Tips’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 4/51,18p, -1.5)  (1 point win bets) (Festival Tips 2018: +109)

NOTES

None.

Nothing jumping out to my eyes on this page for tipping purposes. I have had a small bet (1/4 point for me) on Bact To Black, who very nearly won for S2A (that is strategy S2A…hits section 1 jumps stats, 16/1-25/1 on morning prices, and obviously has nothing to to with my friends over at SP2A! – who are a tipping service, and whose content/tips is nothing to do with this blog in any way at all, and vice versa)..at 6/1, as he has a low weight, ran his best race LTO over this trip, and gets first time CP. There is a chance that he is still tired from that run 9 days ago but it was his first run in a couple of months and you never know. He is up in class also but still lightly raced. I wasn’t bullish enough at that price, in this race, to dive in with my full 1 point, more in hope of getting my stake back from LTO + some beer money!

Elsewhere…it will be interesting to see how the Newmarket stats go. The likes of Gosden and Ryan appear to be ‘in form’, as is Dascombe. This is too early in the season for me to be confident on anything really but hopefully a few of those below go well. I thought Major Jumbo looked interesting at 9/2, could blast out and make all if a1 after his break. I also had a quick flick through the 4.10 – just to try and get my C2 big field flat eyes into some sort of focus, or try to anyway… my eyes were drawn to Mafaaheem / Chief of Chiefs (who was 10s when I started musing, well backed) / Brilliant Vanguard (for the Ryan stats, 25s seemed big albeit likely a few in here have more in hand). Maybe Epaulement EW, Stage Magic and Medahim can go well also. A watching brief, and if getting involved in any of those, loose change only i’d suggest, for interest.

Free TIPS... I have just tipped up Ballyheigue Bay in the 3.10 Exeter on the free post, it being a 3m+ handicap chase, and that’s where those tips live. 1.5 points on the nose at 4s. He makes all, eased down!! 🙂 (maybe)

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

D McCain (14/1<)

2.10 Carl – Chicago Lady (m2/3) 11/2 UP 12/1 UP

4.30 Carl- Pastoral Music (m2) 16/1

3.55 Carl – Mahler Lad (m3)  4/1

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Handicap Chase Starting Points (10/1< best)

3.55 Carl – Achill Road Boy 7/2

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

Craven Meeting trainer pointers : Read/download/print HERE>>>

Craven Meeting Day 1

Horses that hit at least one stat from the report above,to use as starting points, if used at all…

1.50 – Epaulement 16/1 UP / Elhafei 9/4 UP

2.25 – Ambient 40/1 2nd! (agonising!)/ Jawwaal 10/3 UP

3.00-  Jackstar 5/1 WON 5/1>3/1 

3.35 – Purser 5/2 WON 5/2 / Accessor 10/1

4.10 – Brilliant Vanguard 25/1 UP

4.45 – Msayyan 6/1 UP/ Stage Magic 10/1 UP

5.20 – Medahim 7/1 UP

5.55 – Major Jumbo 9/2 WON 9/2>7/2 

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Scottish National Stats/Trends

Not too much to go on here, with my own approach to such research for the last 10 renewals… anyway, there to use as you please..i’ll have a few pokes on the free post up on the Friday/Sat morning. Hopefully I can find another Wayward Prince at 33s 🙂 I’ll have a look and see if any significant handicap hurdle trends/stats to see if we can have any fun with those. 

10/263 runners, 40 places

10/10 had 3-6 runs in prev 365 days (10/183,29p) (0/80,11p outside this)

10/10 had 3-6 runs this season (0/75,10p did not, place stats fine)

10/10 had 1+ handicap wins (0: 0/44,4p)

9/10 had RUN over 3m7f+ in career (1/119,11p had not)

9/10 had 4-7 career wins: (1/91,10p outside this)

7/10 had 0-2 places in handicap chases (7/114,18p)

  • 3-5 places in handicap chases: 0/91,11p (could be a random/illogical stat)

Other

  • French Bred: 6/59,11p, +139
  • PU LTO: 0/29,6p

Trainer: Nicholls (2/13) / A Parker (2/3): 1 win – P Bowen/T Vaughan/H Parrott/S Curan/NTD/A King/Pipe (013/2p) V Williams (0/12,1p) S Smith (014/1p)

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

44 Comments

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  • As with all stat-based microsystems, nothing is bombproof, but by backing 2 to 4yr olds trained by Charlie Appleby, John Gosden, David OMeara, JJ Quinn & Saeed Bin Suroor in Class 3 to 5 Flat maidens during April & May has produced…

    …125 winners from 533 runners (23.45% SR) over the past five seasons. Backing all of them to a 1pt stake would have netted you 177.5pts at SP and 292pts at Betfair SP at ROIs of 33.3% and 54.8% respectively.

    There are admittedly a couple of big priced winners and plenty of shorties, but even focusing on an odds range of 11/4 to 16/1 is profitable.

    3 possibles today :
    1.50 Newmarket – Aurum
    1.50 Newmarket – Elhafei
    2.25 Newmarket – Jawwaal

    Chris

    traf69 16/04/18 4:03 PM Reply


    • Hi Chris, looks an interesting little system indeed. Will you be detailing in here over the nexr few weeks?

      Chris S 17/04/18 5:58 AM Reply


      • Chris S,

        I’ll be posting the qualifiers daily until the end of May.

        traf69 17/04/18 9:25 AM Reply


    • Hi Chris,
      Good start pressure off
      Cheers
      Colin

      colin leafe 17/04/18 2:01 PM Reply


  • Newmarket has stalls stand side tomorrow giving high numbers a perceived advantage along with historically, prominent horses have been the ones to note. Unfortunately the weather forecast means the going could be anything from good to good to soft for the three handicaps.
    I have a laying system which laid 13 winners from 295 last year that puts up DONNCHA, MAZYOUN, ROBERO and TAUREAN STAR in the 5.20. There’s MEDAHIM, ABSOLUTELY SO and GOSSIPING who are hold up horses drawn low. So thats a start until the going is known. Please add horses who cant win LOL

    chubnut 16/04/18 6:28 PM Reply


  • Nice coup double brewing by Emmet Mullins at Tramore this evening. First one cops at 11/4 from 12s this morning in the 5.50. 2nd one, Sunday in augusta 7.50 was widely available at 33s this morning, now 7/4!!!

    chubnut 16/04/18 6:55 PM Reply


  • So I does anyone watch the racing during the day live?
    I have a system that does well but at work and can’t follow the live markets.
    It involves the live markets 5 minutes before racing and involves backed horses.

    RULES

    All handicap flat races (AW and turf)
    All handicap hurdles (no chase)

    No handicaps with amateur/novice or apprentice in the title.
    No 3 year old handicaps.
    Only handicaps with age 4 and above.

    So the rules are to watch the market 5 minutes before the race and note horses that are getting backed.
    The horse has to shorten 4 or more in price to be a possible bet.
    eg

    20/1 – 12/1
    18/1 – 10/1
    8/1 – 4/1 (do not use half odds)

    Max odds to bet 16/1 and min odds 4/1 (it can be less with half odds but no value)

    The golden rule is that the horse has had to have won at the OR it is running on that day.

    There may be more than 1 so back Them all.

    If the odds fluctuate leave alone. If the odds drop then rise leave alone unless they drop again. Eg 16/1 in to 8/1 then back up to 10/1 and drop to 8/1 again as long as it has the rules above.

    That is it. It’s quite easy to follow and some nice price winners and placed horses. I just don’t have time to follow so unsure what the full potential is. The rules have to be strict and no movement from them. Can be used in Ireland too.

    Anyone willing to follow would be great to see how it performs.

    Big J 16/04/18 7:12 PM Reply


    • You can track price movements on the Racing Post website for races by day. Sounds like a way you can maintain records yourself. However, what use would it be to you if you work and cannot action such a system if it works?
      I would focus on a system that would be useful to you based upon what you can do, otherwise it is of no benefit.
      I an a full time punter but do not need to watch every race as I work on a systems and tipsters mix basis. so results determine future bets and not watching races unless I see horses to go in my tracker.

      martin colwell 16/04/18 7:50 PM Reply


      • Hi Martin, always interested to speak with pro punters….I’m relatively new to this punting lark and guess there’s is desire in us all/most to chase the pro dream.
        I hope you don’t mind asking if you have any hints/tips or suggestions on finding new systems to add to the ‘portfolio’. Added a couple of Joshs to paper trial, was hoping you could offer your best advice to point a newbie in the right direction. Thanks in advance

        Chris S 16/04/18 8:56 PM Reply


        • Hi Martin

          I understand the price movement is on racing post as that is where I watch this. I also know about would it be good as I am at work. I only say That when I do follow this when I get time there has been some good winners and placed horses. The last 5 bets there was 6/1 and 5/1 winner and 6/1 and 7/1 placed. So as you can see there is method in my madness.

          Big J 16/04/18 10:20 PM Reply


          • It is not madn4ess it really works but 4x price drop is to much
            can be less

            Pab888 17/04/18 1:38 AM Reply


            • Yester.day winner on Nemarket droped from 18/1 to 7/1 than at off he was 8/1

              Pab888 17/04/18 1:43 AM Reply


              • No racing at Newmarket on Monday, I am confused.

                martin colwell 17/04/18 10:16 AM Reply


          • OK fair enough but a system is not a true system unless you monitor it continuously and not just when you are about. The randomness effect may be giving you winners on certain days that you follow it and not when you do not.

            martin colwell 17/04/18 8:20 AM Reply


            • That is correct Martin that is why i was asking if anyone would be able to monitor in the live market to see what the results where overall not only when i get time to follow.

              Big J 17/04/18 11:54 AM Reply


              • I do get that. But from your perspective what would be the benefit as you go to work and so would only be able to operate such a system when you were not at work and had the time to do it, which would be a small percentage of actual racing in a week? You would be better off with a system that you can operate without having to watch races and so of more use to you.

                martin colwell 17/04/18 12:59 PM Reply


        • Full time and not pro, as tax law determines the word professional as being taxable, which of course ‘gambling’ is not a profession in the UK. Anyway, most people get involved in sports gambling for fun and to try to earn some extra income, which most do not achieve. Which is fine. I went full time because of lifestyle really, not wanting to work 50+ hours a week as a company director.
          Anyway back to your question. In terms of angles, put the hours in reading blogs such as this and related websites and even books (how old fashioned). So first learn from others as to how they go about it and have a go yourself as well and keep an accurate and complete set of results over a six month period. Start with something straight forward, such as Lucinda Russell handicap hurdles at Musselburgh or horses drawn in stalls one and two over 5F at Chester (just examples). Use tools such as Geegeez Gold (you would need a subscription) or a similar resource such as Horseracebase to dig such systems out. You need to be analytical in terms of thought process and in recording actual results and put the time in and have the bankroll to go through any losing run and the discipline to stick with what you know is working. I appreciate that it is hard if you work full time. I have over 50 systems and micros and tipsters (free and pay for) that I track on a daily basis, win or lose, and track their profit and loss via a time period graph so I know which ones are performing at a regular profit and so that I will bet on.
          So have a go and post on here for feedback. Dont worry about it, the contributors on this site are mostly good heated and helpful.

          martin colwell 16/04/18 10:21 PM Reply


          • Thanks for taking the time to reply Martin I will certainly put a lot of that into practice from now.

            One last question- any books you can recommend?

            Thanks again

            Chris Sengelow 17/04/18 6:06 AM Reply


            • Hi Chris, this old post + the comments should help 🙂

              https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2016/11/29/racing-books-what-should-i-be-reading-this-christmas/

              Josh

              Josh 17/04/18 8:12 AM Reply


            • Its not a promotion (honest), but Ive just read Alan Potts’ book Against The Crowd. Written in 1997 but a lot of his rationale and reasonings can still apply. Quite cheap if bought online.

              PAUL EBREY 17/04/18 8:43 AM Reply


              • Josh’s link is useful and the Potts book is still valid. I know Paul Jones of Weatherbys and the Cheltenham guide fame in the past is in regular contact with Alan Potts still. Potts has been writing a new book for a while but has still not completed it. Paul Jones has a book out now as well, Soba to Moldova, it does cover some systems stuff but also relates to experience and a bit of gut feeling!
                But as I said have a go and post it on here and we can give you some feedback. Good way to learn.

                martin colwell 17/04/18 10:22 AM Reply


                • thanks to all for taking the time to reply. I will certainly be ‘investing’ in a few of the above. Thanks

                  Chris Sengelow 17/04/18 7:50 PM Reply


    • That can make your life easy http://www.juststarthere.co.uk
      It is really works as you have wrote

      Pab888 17/04/18 1:34 AM Reply


      • thank you will look in to this.

        Big J 17/04/18 6:26 AM Reply


        • Yesterday it even work with maiden and prices over 20/1
          cold blood and be realistic

          Pab888 17/04/18 11:40 AM Reply


          • I do handicap races as the golden rule is won at the OR or above which in maidens this can not be implemented.

            Big J 17/04/18 11:57 AM Reply


  • Big J,
    In my experience live money on betfair only comes with liquidity and that differs from what race and what day. At any time I would note how much money has gone on a horse, sometimes they will move from say 10s to 7s on a bag of crisps. Nowadays a market is full of traders mostly with bots. They usually haven’t a clue about form and only follow others, hence the ebbs and flows. However, these traders all start getting out of their positions within the final 5 minutes and the nearer the off the more the trading money exits leaving the live cash to dictate.
    I personally use 8 ticks as a positive move and the lower the class of race the better the results. I learnt this the hard way by laying certain horses that the general public wouldnt be interested, the strike rate was so good I now lay £2 traps for these in class 4/5/6 and bet them accordingly.

    chubnut 16/04/18 8:03 PM Reply


  • Evergate Newmarket Tuesday 17:55 1pt e/w Price taken 7/1-8/1
    The Mighty Ash Exeter Tuesday 15:45 1pt e/w Price taken 10/1
    Mjjack Newmarket Tuesday 17:20 1pt e/w 13/2 5 places 1/5 and 7/1 4 places 1/4

    Nick Mazur 16/04/18 9:43 PM Reply


    • Ah, jumps, flat, all the same to you haha. Super job.

      Josh 17/04/18 5:25 PM Reply


      • 1st and 2nd will do nicely even if the last one was poor.

        Nick Mazur 17/04/18 6:03 PM Reply


        • Wow…fantastic Nick so thanks again for sharing mate..

          Josh..
          What’s Nick LSP since posting?

          lightowlers 17/04/18 6:17 PM Reply


          • Oh i lose track, it was +45 last month. And something silly since September! 180+ maybe.

            Josh 17/04/18 6:22 PM Reply


  • Only two prominent horses at Newmarket 5.20
    Love Dreams @16 and Robero @14va
    i will bet propably on Love Dreams and Medieval
    Close watch Take The Helm very good aw form

    I like Benechenko @6 2:00 EX
    and even much more Minella Gathering @21 2:35 EX with Paddy Brenan

    Pab888 17/04/18 1:28 AM Reply


  • 5.50 Fairyhouse Morgan – 1pt ew 14/1
    5 places

    Jim 17/04/18 6:30 AM Reply


  • Morning,

    Have to be quick as I have yo be off to work soon.
    17:55 Newmarket
    MOVE IN TIME 7/1 gen 2pt win
    despite his advancing years he has tumbled down the handicap and Paul Midgley does well with these old warhorses in sprints, it could be anything and we will see…the same applies to the next one.
    KING OF ROOKS 16/1 gen 1pt ew
    Sole outing last season suggested that plenty of his useful 2-y-o ability remains intact, and he’s potentially well handicapped but again could be anything, small stakes on these two…

    Good luck on whatever you back today!

    Stewart 17/04/18 8:09 AM Reply


  • Josh

    Is Tea Time Fred also S2?

    Cheers

    kevo19 17/04/18 1:35 PM Reply


    • ah yes, appears to be 10/1-25/1 on morning prices, so S2 it is! (‘S2A’ when now falling in 16/1-25/1 range on morning price)
      cheers, haven’t missed an S for a while, but all the info is there without them, as spotted! Thanks,
      josh

      Josh 17/04/18 2:06 PM Reply


  • Just a quick one Josh, in the Scottish National trends, the 10/10 had 1+ handicap wins stat, does that apply to novices handicaps too? or just ‘normal’ ones? Thanks in advance

    thisisjonnoo 17/04/18 3:01 PM Reply


    • that will be all handicaps I believe (although not 100% sure), any handicap… it is with the ‘handicap/non handicap’ filter so i’ll assume it is all. I wouldn’t discount any novice hncp wins.
      Josh

      Josh 17/04/18 3:07 PM Reply


      • thought as much, cheers mate

        thisisjonnoo 17/04/18 3:09 PM Reply


  • BJ SPOOKYDOOKY won as system found him like a winner
    5yo+ chase below his wining mark

    Pab888 17/04/18 3:33 PM Reply


  • Josh

    As I have said in emails sent to you thankyou for all your hard work and the great tips you keep producing unlucky today with Ballyheigue Bay I did have the forecast with Spookydooky so made a small profit on the race
    Also would like to thank all others who put up tips and thoughts especially Nick and Colin
    I am going to Cheltenham tomorrow with my son is there any chance you may be able to look through the card for us with your thoughts would be much appreciated
    Regards

    Peter L

    peter0104 17/04/18 3:34 PM Reply


    • Hi Peter, many thanks… yep, I plan to have a good go at the card,so bear with me. A really good card and I should try my best to do it justice, over this evening into the morning.
      Josh

      Josh 17/04/18 6:07 PM Reply


      • Thanks Josh

        peter0104 17/04/18 6:39 PM Reply


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