Nothing from me today.
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Whilst Josh was covering himself with glory at Aintree, I was doing the opposite at Wolverhampton. I recommended a fun tricast on the first three in the betting close to the off, having specifically excluded Daphinia who was third in the betting at the time of posting. In fact Daphinia went off at 16’s but the early market was a clue. I could never have backed her Jimmy Quinn is 3% on 2yos and she was by an unknown sire. The reverse exacta finished 2nd and 3rd, so hopefully better today.
1. Awake In Asia, Blown By the Wind
Ratings Bets 1pt win both top rated, 1/2pt Rev Exacta, 1/6th pt Combo Trifecta.
The obvious danger here is the current favourite on b/f Artair from Michael Bell with JPS up. April debut winners from Mr Bell are very rare although he is perfectly capable of getting them ready if he has a precocious one. JPS can no longer be reliably expected to drop 2yos out the back which one could rely on in past seasons but these two factors are enough to let me take them on.
Blown By The Wind for MJ has had a run and Awake In Asia for David Evans cost £65,000 and is owned by Munir and Souede. With James Doyle and John Egan respectively up and Oisin on Greeley they are definitively the best 2yo jocks in the race. The other one to mention is Solesmes for Mick Channon. By Gregorian so will presumably need further and unlikely to be an early season girl.
Ratings Bets running total +0.2pts
16/04/18 9:15 AM
When did blown by the wind have a run?
16/04/18 10:37 AM
Sorry Hugh just read your post only
looked at first one
16/04/18 10:39 AM
Hi Hugh, thanks for your post and your knowledge of the 2YO age group. Most interesting and a source of winners if you can catch the ones that are ready to go.
I am a full time punter and so have time to wade through various sources of information. What would be helpful is if you could post up the time of the race for those with less time on their hands. The above insight relates to the 2.50 at Windsor.
Thanks for your input.
16/04/18 10:40 AM
Well done Hugh, a nice rev exacta there as well as the win bets.
16/04/18 3:05 PM
great call Hugh.
Blown by wind blew them away.
Reared up in stalls and ran over the place in the last furlong
so a lot more to come NTO.
could be a horse for the Coventry as he looked like 6f
wouldn’t be a problem as he was going away at the finish.
Good ride by Doyle got him out sharpish and when he started to run green
didn’t mess him about
backed down from 7/2 to 2/1 favourite in the last two minutes
even though he wasn’t that settled at the start
Think he is the best two year old so far this season(although early days)
16/04/18 3:21 PM
Well done Hugh, a nice forecast up!
16/04/18 4:13 PM
Mistake in the write up above in that the MJ horse, Blown By Wind has not had a run.
16/04/18 9:24 AM
Do JAN/FEB foals who have been through the breeze up sales
have an advantage at this time of year
16/04/18 10:43 AM
Hi Peter, it is all relative to the trainer and breeding and the DoB’s of the other runners. eg in the 2yo race on Saturday Tom Dascombe’s Sesame was born 25th April and was up against a couple of Feb and early March foals with roughly similar chances as I saw it. In this case I would take it into account. As a rule of thumb I think until about mid May early foals do have some degree of advantage but it rapidly dwindles away thereafter. I think like price DoB is often overweighted by the media pundits.
16/04/18 11:17 AM
I really like Blown by wind his dam Discourse has had two previous
winners both trained by Godophin
both won over a mile as two year olds but both were by middle distance sires
Blown by wind is more sprint bred by Invincible Spirit
The ground at Windsor is very heavy and IS stock seem to handle heavy ground well.
I would be interested in your comments about the horse Hugh
when you get a chance to see him on video
as I suspect that he could be pretty useful but also have a sneaking feeling that
he may come on a lot for todays race.
Also interested that he out so quickly and he travels all the way to Windsor
on heavy ground.
Do you think it is a good sign that a juvenile has a good temperament
that he is ok to be in a horse box for hours on the motorway.
I have been watching two year old races at the start and I don’t know if this is relevant
but the ones that take a long time to load
often run very green or race very freely in front of the pack and fold in the final furlong
this suggest to me that they are frightened of the whole thing
and out of fright race off like a bat out of hell
Your thoughts would be helpful
16/04/18 12:13 PM
Update on results
April proving to be a dodgy month same every year,so far their as been 46 bets with a loss of – 2.25 points at Bookmakers SP,so those who can take advantage of BOG will be showing a profit.
Feb + 22.225
Mar + 14.166
Apr – 2.25
Total + 34.141 or to
April proving a difficult month which is normal there as been 46 bets showing a small loss of -2.25 points at Bookmakers SP so those of you who are able to take advantage of BOG will be showing a profit.
Total + 34.141 or to £10 stakes + £341.41 at Bookmakers SP
16/04/18 9:33 AM
Thanks for continuing to post Colin. No BOG figures from me this month as I have missed a couple of days of bet placement (winning days of course!) but my April figures similar to yours even without them. Thanks again, Francis
16/04/18 11:04 AM
Hi Colin, i follow your bets…but was wondering, what has been your longest losing streak…I know your bank advice…but this thought just struck me..If you have told us before, it’s slipped my mind.
16/04/18 11:20 AM
Destroyed all my racing and golf records after leaving Optimum Racing for i was never going to put them up again any way to answer your question i would work on twenty,for i have never split them up before and i back all codes.
Decided to put up AW bets when some on here slated the AW for me its about making a profit and i enjoy all codes of racing and there is a profit to be made on the AW.
Flat,NH and AW would say 20 losers so a bank of 30 times your stakes you would be panicking where a bank of 50 you would be happier with 60% still safe after 20 losers.
16/04/18 6:03 PM
Colin, thanks for Webb Simpson, if Kisner had not fallen apart you might have had two in the top 5. Good picking. I am enjoying this.
16/04/18 12:12 PM
Hello Pete and Martin, very satisfactory today. sorry about the confusion re Blown By Wind having had a run.
I was at Windsor today and the moment Blown By Wind arrived in the paddock it was clear that he was more than just a precocious 2yo. Lovely big strong type. I have posted a picture up on Twitter @hughonthehill.
I shall write up the race later and post with tomorrow’s analysis.
16/04/18 4:57 PM
There are 2 I like in the 1835 Leopardstown – Both will like the going- Tribal Path, Bainne.
16/04/18 5:48 PM
Experiment here as I have never used Imgur. this link should take you to photos of some of the 2yos from today. https://imgur.com/a/oKPVe
16/04/18 6:13 PM
Just checked and they do not have names. Please check against racecar nunmbers.
16/04/18 6:15 PM
Let me know if it works.
16/04/18 6:21 PM
Hi Hugh. Just tried the link and the photos came up with the horse’s name.
16/04/18 7:23 PM