Members Daily Post: 15/04/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Ffos Las 

3.45 –

Ballycross (m1) G3 13/2  WON 9/2 

Dr Robin (m1) 14 16/1 S2A UP

4.20 – Kerisper (m1/m2) 15/2 UP

4.50- Cruising Bye (m2) 14 H3 I3 G3 4/1 S4 2nd

 

Plumpton

2.50 – Dancing Conquest (m1/m2)  9/1 PU

3.20 – Searching (m1) 18/1 S2A UP

4.30 – King Charlie (m2) 14 15/2 PU

 

Newcastle

3.00 – McGinty’s Dream (m1/m1/m2) H3 11/4 2nd

4.05 –

Valzan (hncp c) 14 G1 10/1 S1 S2 UP

Gold Opera (m1) G3 6/1   WON 15/2 

5.10 –

Bertalus (m1/m1/m2) 7/1 WON 9/1 

Massini’s Lady (m2/m2) H1 I3 G3 11/4  S4 UP

 

Bonus (Irish) 

2.55 Tra – Glendine River (hncp h) 11/1 S2 WON 12/1 

4.00 Tra – Just Get Cracking (all + hncp c) ES H3 6/1  S3 WON 7/1 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to April 1st 2018)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 1st April 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

 

 

NOTES

2.50 P – Dancing Conquest 9/1 (gen) PU

4.30 P – King Charlie 15/2 (gen) PU*

Hmm, well at least Ballycross won in terms of across the board ‘tipping’. These two were poor, not a total shock given profiles and logic made sense, but both didn’t run their races at all. Haven’t got going with jumps ‘notes’ at all this season! Bring on the flat, in terms of Notes anyway. 

That will be all for ‘tips’ (just put up ballycross in free post, 1 point win)

 

Dancing Conquest.. the first of two horses who are both unexposed enough and there should be more to come in handicaps one day. Whether that is today we shall see! This horse is doing a couple of things differently which caught the eye – mainly the drop back in trip and the return to better ground. Whether the latter makes a difference i’m not sure but given she has yet to run on ground that isn’t a bog, I thought it may be a reason for an improved showing. This is her 4th run after a lengthy break and 4th in handicap chases and second in a C5. It’s her first go in a chase over this trip, ground and class. In that context I thought 9s was worth a stab. She also went well for a long way LTO and jumped well. In the end she got tired up the straight in desperate conditions, before failing to lift a leg and walking through a fence. But, it was a promising run nonetheless and up until her fall the best of her career to date. Hopefully she can build on it here.

King Charlie… this one makes handicap hurdle debut and drops in class. He really could be anything and it’s not impossible he’s thrown in. Given the following stats, I felt 15/2 was worth a go given his profile. The trainer is 4/9 at the track with all handicap hurdlers returning 60+ days off, 2/7,4p when ridden by Sherwood. She is 4/13 in her career with handicappers returning 121-365 days off (this one is 368). In effect she is more than capable of getting them fit enough at home and they tend to run their race after a monster break. She is also 4/28,10 with handicap hurdle debutants, 1/6,2p at Plumpton. Finally, she is ‘in form’, having been quiet for an age from memory – 2/7,3p in the last 14 days. That run at Taunton in a C4 novice handicap chase, 3 starts back, was decent enough and was some indication that there is ability there. Given that he’s clearly had problems, i’d be surprised if he wasn’t a1 today and ready to run his race. Time will tell if he’s good enough, or indeed whether he is fit enough. But, there is method to my madness at I thought 15/2 was just fair enough.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

A Dunn (25/1< guide)

5.00 Plump – Millen Dollar Man 2nd 14/1 (short head, agony when they get caught on line!)

D McCain (14/1< guide)

4.05 Newc – Whitsundays UP

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

2.40 FL – Lickpenny Larry WON

4.50 FL – The Lion Dancer WON

4.05 Newc – Asking Questions 2nd

3.55 Plump – Cap Horner

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

‘Tipping’ results musings...

A re-cap and looking ahead…

Members’ Festival Tips 

‘Cheltenham Festival Week’: 13 races / 6 wins / 1 paid place advised EW / +92 points

Aintree Festival: 3 races / 1 win  / +17 points

Total: 16 races / 7 wins / +109 points

Free Post Tips

2018: 68 bets / 7 wins / 19p / +42 points

(inc 33/1 Irish National and 16/1 winner Topham Chase)

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Grand Total 2018: +151 points

(+£377.50 to £2.50 stakes per point, +£755 to £5 per point, +£1510 to £10 per point, +£3020 to £20 per point) 

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Free tips were on -3 going into Cheltenham week… which means that in the last 34 days, i’ve tipped in around 33 races or so / 9 winners / 2 paid places on EW bets, 40/1 (chelt) 28/1-33/1 Milansbar) / +154 points…. 

Oh, and +110 points of ‘notes’ tipping content since Sept 1st.

+251 points or so in the last 7.5 months.

That’s just silly. I do like a profit spike, and please remember these glory days when I hit the inevitable 20-40 point slump at some point this year, which I will. Maybe twice, or more.

I think that is what they call a hot-streak. But, we cannot dwell on the past…

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Looking ahead… in terms of ‘tipping’… 

C2/G3 handicap hurdle winners at 28/1, 12/1 (+40/1 2nd same race, should have won!) and 25/1 (Jester Jet) in that period, would indicate that these races are worthy of ‘the treatment’ in terms of my stats/trends/shortlisting/tipping, within the Members’ posts. Free tips will continue to focus on 3m+ handicap chases as they have always done.

Next week we have Ayr, the week after Punchestown (where i’d best focus on handicap hurdles I think, stats allowing) and over the summer the likes of Galway, Market Rasen etc.

Punchestown… I’ll try and dig out a few Trainer micro systems, and anything else. I won’t be going mad that week but there will be something to get stuck into. I don’t follow Irish racing at all throughout the year really, so I am always cautious about diving in too much. Less could be more that week.

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The FLAT

The ‘tipping’ focus on the Flat will be my ‘notes’ (section 2 above) where I had a mad time of it at the back end of last year in Sept/Oct, once I’d changed mindset/approach. Hopefully my TTP Flat stats pack can continue to highlight enough winners and that I can home in on enough of them within Section 2. I am looking forward to seeing if I can build on that foundation although it may take me a few weeks to get my eye in.

There will be plenty of ‘big meeting’ notes for the Flat. (as per research link in the Key, in order to get an idea) They have more 2-4 day ‘Festivals’ than the jumps and those of you who have a HorseRaceBase account, and click the ‘Festival Tab’ within the V4 system builder, will see what I mean. I need to make these more focused and useful, in a way that I can home in on horses to ‘tip’ within section 2 above. Another string to the bow, hopefully. But in any case such research is as much about providing you with info in which to make your own picks, which is always some of the point in what I do here.

On the free posts for the Flat..well time allowing in a week, I will post up stats/trends for big heritage handicaps, 5-7f, I suspect. And any shortlists, 2-6 horses, in which to focus. I have no historical record of success in such races and at any point in a week, all of the content mentioned above will take priority. Last season, or the season before, I ran myself down mentally by trying to become a ‘sprint king’ expert, on run of the mill C2-4 sprint handicaps during the week, with no stats/trends etc. I won’t be doing that again and have no intention of trying to become said expert. It would be to the detriment of everything else above and I just found them too challenging and failed to find an easy/quicker way to analyse such races. I think I have enough to focus on anyway. One day i’ll master them and find an approach. But it won’t be this summer.

and then there is the bread and butter…

Section 1/advised strategies

You good folk will judge your experience in these parts on many factors no doubt, but I benchmark any success on my ability to create a systematic betting portfolio. I don’t think i’ve nailed that as yet, certainly not this jumps season (Nov-now has been quiet enough). (hopefully the tipping elements have made up for any negatives on that front though! 🙂 )

My aim is to guide us all to a point where we can win say +100 points over a calendar year from a systematic approach based on the qualifiers in Section 1. Betting £2 to £2.50 per point would therefore ensure your subs are covered, there is a bit left over and that we have a solid profit foundation on which to build.

I think/hope that Jumps S1 and Flat S6 will combine, over the course of a year, to deliver that. S4 also, which is the same for both Flat/Jumps, and won a much needed +8 points on Saturday.

Just three strategies, +100 points the aim.

As of 1st April those three collectively were around -5 points or so for 2018. On Monday I’ll bring all results up to date within the links in the Key above.

We will see how they end up come the end of the year. A 100 point bank is probably advisable for those three, to be on the safe side. Two of them have win strike rates in the 10-14% region, which will mean the odd hefty losing run.

Of course, you are free to use all the info in any way you please, as presented in the ‘advised strategies’ links. If you have yet to spend any time flicking through and immersing yourselves in those, it would be advisable to do so.

Jumps S2A -16/1-25/1 priced Jumps qualifiers – (Searching is an example above) look exciting. I think they may be near the +80 point mark for 2018, from 1 point win bets, and prob +65-70 or so from 1 point EW.

As previously discussed, ‘In form horses‘ and ES+ Double/Treble Rated (strategy S3A, + two or three red ratings pointers) look interesting also, but very early days. It will be interesting how they perform on the Flat also. All of this information/discussion/evidence/results can be found in the advised strategy links.

The ‘Test Zone’ is just that, there to use as you please, but the likes of the Lacey and McCain angles have been the stars of the show on that front, around +60 points between them this jumps season. I will try and find the odd angle for the Flat, when I get a moment to breathe, that we can track over the summer.

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There will be a Summer Jumps stats pack also, and those qualifiers will be posted in Section 1 also – jumps action all year round, which may please those of you who do not like the Flat!

As always, I think less is more and realising that we will not back all the winners found on the daily posts or indeed in the comments from your good selves. Handling ‘missed winners’ is an important trait given the approach here. You and I just have to be happy with our own experience and profit levels over time.

Anyway, always plenty to ponder, and I haven’t even mentioned all of your stellar tipping efforts and musings!

Without any evidence to back it up, i’ll just suggest this is the most profitable blog in racing. Maybe 🙂 (well, surely in the last 34 days!!)

On we go.

As always, any questions/queries then fire away in the comments below, or email me.

Josh

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

43 Comments

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  • Decent day of racing today. A few of these are dropping in price so posting them and write ups will follow.

    Pressurize Ffos Las 15:45 1pt e/w
    Solomn Grundy Ffos Las 16:20 1pt e/w
    Rothman Plumpton 15:20 1pt e/w
    Indian Castle Plumpton 15:55 2pt win

    Nick Mazur 15/04/18 10:12 AM Reply


    • wallop!! well done.

      Josh 15/04/18 3:26 PM Reply


      • Rothman smoked em! You were due a nice winner Nick, well done!

        Chris Albin 15/04/18 3:28 PM Reply


    • Quality as ever Nick many thanks fella

      christopher jones 15/04/18 3:29 PM Reply


    • Nice start Nick. I had 14/1 BOG! Very easy winner.

      I did five in the GN yesterday for an interest including the second at 40/1 from horses put up by tipsters. I thought Anabale Fly ran well. I always back Tiger Roll at Cheltenham but did not have him yesterday.

      Anyway keep finding the winners.

      martin colwell 15/04/18 3:31 PM Reply


    • Got to be worth a big fat booommmm Nick as another lands

      christopher jones 15/04/18 4:29 PM Reply


    • Well done, Nick! A nice double there.

      Andy N 15/04/18 4:36 PM Reply


    • Thanks for a couple of good priced winners today

      colin leafe 15/04/18 4:36 PM Reply


    • Well done Nick
      Didn’t get on any but great to see

      Darren 15/04/18 4:41 PM Reply


    • very nice Thank you back in form…..

      William Whitmore 15/04/18 4:41 PM Reply


    • Great work Nick. Quality tipping. Followed you in on Soloman as he’s a personnel fave!

      Jim 15/04/18 4:42 PM Reply


    • Well done Nick, back on the winners wagon, knew it wouldn’t be long before you climbed back aboard!!

      Stewart 15/04/18 4:45 PM Reply


    • I was kicking myself after checking for selections on here today and missed Rothman gutted wasn’t the word until solman Grundy result was checked a real Sunday saver thanks very much Nick and all other lads who take the time to post selections alongside Josh

      Aaron Lumsden 15/04/18 6:06 PM Reply


    • Lovely picking Nick!

      Wouldn’t have backed Rothman without you tipping it, would have filtered it out.

      Chris Murrell 15/04/18 7:31 PM Reply


  • I like the look of yourholidays over in the 5.00 at Plumpton tomorrow. 1st and close 2nd over C&D in 2 runs at the track, back down to LWM and paddy brennan on for the first time. I got 8/1 last night, around 6/1 now

    JamesP 15/04/18 10:22 AM Reply


    • I mean today obviously

      JamesP 15/04/18 10:23 AM Reply


  • Well done Josh on another profitable festival,only Punchestown to go now for a clean sweep.
    Misty Mai looks a little big at 14/1 3.45 Ffos Llas.An end of season race where some might need a rest.Sean bowen has an excellent record with chasers at the track 30% over the last five years and has been on board for his 2 wins one at the track,whether he is gone over the top or not good enough is the doubt but at the price may be worth a small wager

    gearoid180468 15/04/18 10:29 AM Reply


    • cheers Gerry, yep can’t complain with the 2018 Festivals so far! Will try and nab a 20/1+ winner of a Punchy handicap for the cherries on top of the cherries haha.

      Josh 15/04/18 4:39 PM Reply


  • 2:50P Micquus
    If I have this right.
    E Lavelle: 1st run stable + 1st time hood = 3 wins from 4, in the last two seasons.
    Current price 6/1

    ian 15/04/18 10:39 AM Reply


  • Pressurize Ffos Las 15:45 1pt e/w Price taken 10/1-12/1 I appreciate this one is 12 but he is extremely lightly raced. Won on re-appearance back in January in a class 2 and is effectively 2lbs lower with the jockey claim. Gets a big jockey upgrade in Nugent who has won 3 of his last 4 starts for Venetia. Trainer is hotter than just about anyone in England with 8 winners from 20 runners in the last 7 days. Ran with credit in the Kim Muir. He will love the ground. They go for first time blinkers here which Venetia has used to positive effect recently (1/3, 2p in 2018). I am hoping Nugent kicks on from the front here like they did back in January.

    Solomn Grundy Ffos Las 16:20 1pt e/w Price taken 11/1-Has been extremely consistent over this sort of level hardly ever outside of the front 3 over this sort of trip going close in a few class 2s. He had a wind op before his start last time. Ran over too short a trip on ground arguably faster than ideal last time in the Silver Plate which is normally filled with horses too well handicapped to get into Cheltenham. This is much sort of his level. Both trainer and jockey in great form and looked to have an excellent chance.

    Rothman Plumpton 15:20 1pt e/w Price taken 11/1 4 places-12/1 3 places-We backed back in the autumn when he got mugged over course and distance. LTO he was 2nd to a horse which has won twice since. Reverts back to hurdles and is 2lbs lower than his last run here. Chris Gordon has won 2 of his last 4 starts and is an excellent 5/18, 10p +10 with Tom Cannon in the saddle over handicap hurdles in the past 2 years. I think has a reasonable chance he makes all here. Try and get 4 places if you can.

    Indian Castle Plumpton 15:55 2pt win Price taken 4/1 The 4/1 on offer looked massive and not surprised he has been backed as he looked like a 6/4 shot to me. He was well fancied in 2 big Cheltenham handicaps in the autumn and ran with credit. Has clearly hated the visor the last two times (also he is a better horse on better ground) and I am amazed they dropped him 5lbs since his last run. They remove all headgear which is a good sign since he never needed it when with McCain. Williams again in good form. Drops into a class 4 here where he is 3/4, 4p and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him win here easily and follow up in another couple afterwards.

    Nick Mazur 15/04/18 10:44 AM Reply


    • Great work Nick. Thanks a lot!

      neilmck 15/04/18 5:48 PM Reply


      • sensational tipping Nick, fantastic work, very well done

        paul 16/04/18 7:45 AM Reply


  • Quite like the look of Mr Jim, but has shortened from 8 into 11/2 now…There looks to be a couple of springer’s here too. Notably Micquus and Josh’s choice. bol all.

    Tony Mc

    tonymc 15/04/18 1:48 PM Reply


  • Successful Lacey double at 21-1 yesterday.
    Today one Lacey based on the fact that his horses can be backed blind at the moment and one Henderson which he has tipped on the Lambourn trainers website:
    Ffos Las 5.20 He’s A Goer 5-1
    Plumpton 5.30 Voyage de Retour 4-1
    29-1 double.

    Andy N 15/04/18 2:58 PM Reply


    • Ah yes great picking with those two, sadly I failed to back the double! Had a good saver on Thomas P as per notes, making all as I thought he might, couldn’t bring myself to tip at 9/2 but if there is one sort of chaser to back at that price, it’s one around a track like Aintree who you think may make all and who stays further. A great run/ride. Lacey’s form this year has been mad, rarely wastes bullets, they flitter between being in very good form and very very very good form. On another hot streak. He’s a bloodstock agent as well I believe so clearly has a great eye for a young horse, and as per logic in my micro angle.. given he is willing to sell for the right price I think, a clear drive to get his younger horses winning asap. Seems to give them plenty of time and many are ready when hitting the track. They know what they are doing. Some have been very keen and get better with racing/when put into a big field/strong pace/learn to settle. Definitely a yard to keep onside

      Josh 15/04/18 3:21 PM Reply


      • Thanks Josh – yes, a very good summary of the yard. Sounds like Meep Meep may be off to the sales. The blog is worth a read even if he doesn’t explicitly tip the horses – you get a good insight by reading between the lines.

        Andy N 15/04/18 3:40 PM Reply


  • Josh

    Thanks for another profitable festival, your certainly on a roll.
    Off up to Ayr for the weekend and will going to the races on Friday.
    If you could have a look at the card, any pointers would be appreciated.

    Cheers Mark

    Mark 15/04/18 4:23 PM Reply


    • Oh I’ll be sure to be looking at that card,dont worry. Will see what we can come up with. No problem. I do like the big one, hopefully can make it 2 out of 4 for the big National Nationals, would take that! Although would take 1/4 every year in truth.

      Josh 15/04/18 4:41 PM Reply


  • Thanks guys. I love how the collective tipping public takes Sundays off. Far easier to find the value.

    Nick Mazur 15/04/18 4:31 PM Reply


    • (that’s probably why there is more value haha, don’t encourage them to start tipping!)

      Josh 15/04/18 4:41 PM Reply


      • Second that Josh…haha, no way would i have had HPM at 33`s the other Sunday….I don`t think anyone heard us today..haha!

        Stewart 15/04/18 4:52 PM Reply


    • Double chicken dinner! I owe you a drink or two. Let me know when you are at Aspers Stratford next and I will get the drinks in?

      martin colwell 15/04/18 5:25 PM Reply


  • Fantastic as always Josh & Nick, and if today’s Irish bonus is anything to go by then Punchestown sould be profitable too.

    Daniel Prandy 15/04/18 4:52 PM Reply


  • Bugger …Millen Dollar Man just pipped at the post!

    Darren 15/04/18 5:08 PM Reply


    • what a bugger! Promise in the angle though with runs like that. Was due one of those maybe. Can’t blame the horse or rider, hit front at right spot for me, put pressure on one chasing, great ride on winner. Damn. Never mind.

      Josh 15/04/18 5:10 PM Reply


      • Yep great ride. No fault.

        …..and now just watched Bertalus romp home without a penny on! Ha

        Darren 15/04/18 5:18 PM Reply


        • Oh neither did I… he was very hard to make a case for, awful when last seen on his first two chase starts of career, hadn’t done much over hurdles. The iffy/stop-start winter may have played havoc with that yard mind, back up in trip, headgear switch and an awful awful race have done the trick! Am sure Lucy would have had the choice. Was never backing/tipping that at 7s personally, esp when hitting no strategy- the only way any money would have landed on him!

          Josh 15/04/18 5:21 PM Reply


          • Yeah think it was such low grade fare he had his chance to shine!

            Darren 15/04/18 5:27 PM Reply


  • Well my quiet Sunday turned quite interesting. That you Josh.

    bogsnorkeler 15/04/18 5:36 PM Reply


    • Thank you rather

      bogsnorkeler 15/04/18 5:36 PM Reply


  • Well done Nick and Josh…..had a quiet day today…should have know better lol.
    Cracking picks both of you…..

    Tony Mc

    tonymc 15/04/18 6:31 PM Reply


  • mahy thanks nick for today excellent tips decided to follow your tips from the begining of april it started tough but testerday and today you bounced back in style i never doubted you hopefully many more

    paul bailey 15/04/18 6:43 PM Reply


  • Just like to thank Nick Colin and Josh, was being lazy today (my wife said not lazy, recovering from having to work full time at our age) anyway I now and again do a e/w lucky 15 bookies mug punter bet, My selections were Nicks two winners, one of Josh’s loser (King Charlie) and a pick of my own Scorpion Haze at 12/1 so a nice little return from that and while I was checking my account I had a nice little return from the e/w golf bets i put on from Colins advice.
    Thanks again all

    Greg

    Greg Phillips 15/04/18 8:41 PM Reply


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