Members Daily Post: 11/04/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Market Rasen 

4.40 MR – Lip Service  (m1) H3 I3  7/2 UP

*

(when will it ever stop raining!?)

 

*

KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to April 1st 2018)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 1st April 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

*

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 4/49,18p, +0.5)  (1 point win bets)

None.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

4.10 MR – Minella Scamp (m3) 3/1 UP

4.40 MR – Lip Service (m3)  7/2 UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Results Update 

Weekly Results Update

Results Update: Summary below, link in Key for Jumps Strategiewill be updated next week. 

Weekly Results Update: Advised Strategies 2nd-8th April

Summary

Weekly TOTAL (advised strategies) (Section 1): 

  • Backing all strategy quals every time they hit a strategy: 1/24,11p, -20
  • Backing all strategy quals just once, regardless of how many strategies they hit: 1/22, -18
  • JUMPS – S1 (0/3,1p, -3) S2 (0/5,3p, -5) S3 (0/3,2p, -3) S3A (0/3,2p,-3) S4 (1/8,2p, -4) S5 (0/2,1p, -2)
  • FLAT 2018: None. 

NOTES (‘tips’, Section 2):  0/1,0p, -1

TEST ZONE (Jumps angles) : 0/7,0p, -7

‘In Form Horses’ (won LTO or two runs ago, backed once if both a W1+W2)

  • Jumps: 1/10,5p, -6 
  • Flat: none 

Handicap Debut: 0/1,0p, -1

S3A Double/Treble rated: 0/2,1p, -2 

 

*

Aintree GN Meeting 2018

Final Report: READ HERE>>>

I’ve assembled everything into one place.. the Grand National trends/stats, handicap hurdles and some other stats from a previous report, as previously seen. + also now the stats/trends for the three other handicap chases.

You can also read 2016s report if you so wish, HERE>>> (which is in the research link in Key also)

*

More Aintree stats… 

A different take from Geegeez Stat of The Day Chris, (he does other stuff in Geegeez towers also!) to use as starting points/ignore as you please… 

…Some of this might be new to you, some probably won’t! But either way, here are some angles you might consider this week and wish to note down…

1. For those interested in how the big yards fare… (starting points/general pointers!) 

Elliott : back all 5-10 yr olds
Henderson : back 4-6 yr olds esp in NHF
Mullins : avoid all, esp chasers
Nicholls : avoid all aged 5+
Tizzard : back those aged 7+
Twister : back his hurdlers and NHF runners

2. Since 2010 at the “Festival”, horses racing over 2m to 3m1f stepping up in trip by 2.5f or 3f from a run at the Cheltenham festival last time out, where they were beaten into 2nd, 3rd or 4th, going down by a head to 10 lengths : 14 winners from 53 (26.4% SR) for 54.94pts at SP (+103.7% ROI) and 87.13pts (+164.4%) at betfair SP.

3. And since 2015 in Class 1 contests at 2.5 miles and beyond, former Class 1 winners who finished 3rd to 6th inclusive or fell Last time out 26 to 45 days earlier are 7/15 (46.7% SR) for 114pts (+760%) at SP and 174.53pts (+1163.6%) at Betfair SP.

And finally… the big one itself… 17 of the last 18 National winners were males from Ireland/France/UK, aged 8 to 12, wearing either blinkers or no headgear at all.

They were priced at 7/1 to 100/1 and were rated at 136 to 160 carrying 10st 3lbs to 11st 9lbs.

They were stepping up in trip by at least 3 furlongs from a last run 20 to 84 days earlier at one of the following : Cheltenham / Doncaster / Down Royal / Fairyhouse / Haydock / Kelso / Leopardstown / Naas / Newcastle / Punchestown / Uttoxeter / Warwick where they finished in the first eight home or were pulled up/fallers.

They had 3 to 10 runs in the previous 12 months, had at least one prior NH win under their belts and had won at 3 miles or further.

To get the 17 winners would have taken 134 bets : this 12.7% strike rate yielding 323pts profit at SP at an ROI of 241%.

*

*

 

GRAND NATIONAL TIP

Milansbar – 1 point EW – 33/1 (will be declared to 1/4 odds 5 places)

More to follow on the day I suspect…

A few others in my thinking.. Vintage Clouds (who I may have had a nibble on at 50s already, falls down on plenty of stats mind, and may not get in) Final Nudge (any muddy ‘National’ form could be the place to focus this year) Baie Des Iles (7 YO stat to get broken?), Tiger Roll, Beeves 100/1 (not sure he stays past 26f though, esp if soft!), Raz De Maree… and maybe a few others. Plenty of pondering time left. It’s that sort of race.

Milansbar… however… I had to back this one. I have been through my stats.. my starting set of 6 pointers (won C2+, ran C2+ LTO, Ran over 25.5f+ in career,3+ runs this season,10+ chase runs, 5+ career wins) that leaves a manageable shortlist of… 23!! 🙂 I used the 5  5/5 stats for the last 5 years, and then 7 further stats… (i listed the 23 original qualifiers and now have a lot of crosses and ticks on my page)… Not running over 24.5-26f LTO, 18+ career runs, 3+ hncp runs, 13+ runs LH, ran LH LTO, 4+ wins LH, 1st or 2nd one at least one of last three starts…

Only one horse ticks every single one of those boxes – Milansbar.

Now, if i’m going to spend all that time with such a stats approach, and they point to one horse, at 33s, I just have to tip him don’t I?? Yes. Yes is the answer. This could be one trip too many to the staying chase well this season, but he has solid form. Bryony will be back I assume (i hope) and her magic hands appear to make all the difference to this one. He hacked up at Warwick and could have gone around again. He won a tad easier than One For Arthur did in the same race although that was probably deeper. Maybe. He was then too keen/lit up at Newcastle- Jamie Moore just could not settle him. He plodded on. He ran ok at Uttoxeter, a decent enough second, plodding on again in desperate ground. They all bumped into one there but he beat the rest well enough and kept going. There is a chance he did too much too soon also. There is a chance they eased of his work a bit before this race also and wanted to make sure he didn’t completely leave his season there.  His prominent style and solid jumping (of late, touch wood) could see us have some fun for a long way. IF he gets into the rhythm of his last start or as he did at Warwick, he should just be able to do his own thing in the front 3rd somewhere. Running at the Uttoxeter Midlands National meeting is also a great pointer for all runners at this Aintree meeting (thanks Gavin Priestley for that snippet) inc two monster GN winners (50s/100s), so he ticks that box also.

He has some of the best/most solid staying chase form on offer this season (all eyes on the Welsh National also!) and it’s that sort of form, either this season or in years gone by, that could come to the fore this year. The ground looks to be heavy already based on going sticks (thanks Nick) and while they are meant to get a dry spell, it could still be testing enough. His light weight will help in that regard and provided one more comes out, he won’t have the dreaded bottom weight, the stats for which are not great.

Anyway, given my approach and his odds, I have to back him!

There will be a few other 1 points fired about not doubt. Final Nudge / Vintage Clouds / Raz De Maree (could get too far back) / Tiger Roll (prob too short for tipping purposes) are occupying plenty of the grey matter. But I will give the race plenty more thought.

Others from the stats… well, it feels open as you’d expect and actually most of the 23 from the original sift only fall down on 1 or 2 of the other stats. You could find a solid stats angle to discount any horse in this if you so wished to do so, and it’s safe to say I wouldn’t let any stat put you off necessarily. I will be looking through without my stats, which I have done briefly, hence that ‘working shortlist’ above.

*

 

*

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

53 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Evening,

    I have the same train of thought Josh, he absolutely loved Bryony being on board, they clicked, it was magical to see them both during and after the race at Warwick. I don`t think he has enjoyed the other rides since that and the ground at Uttoxeter was bottomless, he still has some heart and he is definitely my heart pick for the National!! Head on the other hand says GLB and The Dutchman….

    Stewart 10/04/18 6:09 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh,
    Just in case M.R. isn’t abandoned, Lip Service is a micro class qualifier and I suspect will warrant some ratings.
    Mike

    titus_a_duxass 10/04/18 6:39 PM Reply


    • Damn. Ah cheers. Clearly not concentrating fully! At the pub now will update before night is out.

      Josh 10/04/18 7:01 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh

    Will you be doing daily tips for Aintree? Got a few other tips but waiting for yours before I commit. I think that’s what you call a vote of confidence 🙂

    Ken McKenzie 10/04/18 8:28 PM Reply


    • Ha. I don’t have a set approach to Aintree. There will be more for GN and then i take it day as it comes. Chelt is more professional mainly as I don’t leave the flat! I am there all three days and when you’re on your feet for 6+ hours and see it friends at the bar, analysis can take a back seat! I’ll do my best but we shall see. I’ll aim for shortlists for the handicap hurdles,I’ll look at all hncp chases esp the Topham. There won’t be any official tips for non handicaps.
      Josh

      Josh 10/04/18 8:35 PM Reply


  • end of the SP2AC special offer. I wont be renewing the subscription. Ian goes to great lengths to tell you he is different from other tipping services and “I’m upfront genuine” guvnor attitude. Yet here we go with the Billy Sollocks tip, the trainspotter tip, what the Newmarket whore heard. He ends this offer the an assessment not with an easy 1/4 pt EW @ SP 10/1 = ? but an array of mathematical alternatives including ROI and other nonsense.
    Racintoprofit is a fabulous site well worth the money ( although the increasing tipping as opposed discussion is getting a tad tedious) and Josh does a wonderful job. He has to make it pay so no blame on him looking for earners. Wonder if SP2AC logged laying all their plays on Betfair actually turned a profit. Love Mathematics, use it to your advantage.

    chubnut 10/04/18 9:22 PM Reply


  • Chubnut, you certainly live up to the last three words of your name. SP2A is the best service out there by a country mile.

    Roddo 10/04/18 9:32 PM Reply


    • I apologise for what i said, but i was insensed by his slagging off of Ian, and it should have read last three letters.

      Roddo 11/04/18 8:36 AM Reply


  • Roddo, no need for that. 🙂

    Chubnut… I’ll reply to your various other comments in depth in the morning.

    Meanwhile. No one else wade in please.

    I’m having another pint. Up the Reds! 🙂

    Josh 10/04/18 9:53 PM Reply


    • Just back from the game Josh….I’m hoarse and happy…..now for the cratur!!!! lol Cheers lad.

      Tony Mc.

      tonymc 10/04/18 10:14 PM Reply


      • My voice has gone! We rode our luck somewhat over the tie. 3 ‘goals’ at crucial stages we got away with over 2 legs. That luck can only last for so long! But that’s football and if you can’t celebrate there isn’t much point in being a fan of any sport really! On we go. Entertained all the way.

        Josh 10/04/18 11:11 PM Reply


        • 11/2 wasnt bad either 🙂

          bogsnorkeler 11/04/18 5:29 AM Reply


          • Was 6/1 in places and 18/1 at half time.

            martin colwell 11/04/18 9:40 AM Reply


    • can we wade in yet Josh 🙂

      martin whittle 11/04/18 8:07 AM Reply


      • No 🙂

        Josh 11/04/18 8:13 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh
    Looking at the stats Milansbar has only 2 chase wins, a negative for win purposes 0/85 you record. I found Warriors Tale had the snuggest fit, although not competed in the required two G3’s it has 2 listed hcap efforts to it’s name.
    I’ll be following you in of course but will include Warriors in my “portfolio”. Interested in your take, perhaps I’ve missed something obvious?
    Cheers

    kevo19 10/04/18 10:16 PM Reply


    • Nope…but it was a 0/85 or whatever 9 places… if it was 0/42,4 places I’d put it on the useful pile,but not essential…and the 20 year stats for 1-2 chase wins are just fine inc the place stats. Also…this could be the worst ground this has been run on in an age so some caution as to all stats. Were you to use that stat to cross him out…the every horse in the race falls down on something quite severe! Hence why only a guide. But give my approach I had to back him EW. I won’t be putting you off anything in that race!

      Josh 10/04/18 10:31 PM Reply


    • Take Warriors Tale out, he wont stay, save your money. I now like Seeyouatmidnight, not over raced, nice weight.

      martin colwell 10/04/18 10:36 PM Reply


      • He ‘might’ stay 🙂 on balance of evidence we have available I’d be surprised if he does but you build that into price and Mr Hemmings didn’t purchase him mid season for the day out…well. he might have done haha but not certainties on stamina in this race! I didnt think Uhlan Bute would stay at Ludlow but he kept on galloping when everything else fell in a hole. Nothing is impossible!

        Josh 10/04/18 11:18 PM Reply


        • We shall see? Any tips for the virtual race on ITV (Is it on this year?) on Friday? I will go with the Total Recall cartoon character.

          martin colwell 11/04/18 9:44 AM Reply


  • Cyclop Market Rasen Wednesday 16:40 1.5pt win Price taken-15/2-7/1 Much better right handed than left. Trainer has a very solid record here. Drops down to a class 4 for the first time since in ages. Won on his last start at the track. He is on a solid mark still. There is a small chance 3m is too short but I think he looks overpriced and this is much easier than he has been contesting.
    Captain Pugwash Kempton Wednesday 19:45 1.5pt win -Price taken 6/1-Won LTO and the runner up has won 2 since including a class 2 off 7lbs higher. He is only 2lbs higher for that and has a nice draw. There is a small chance he is purely a Chelmsford horse however if this was Chelmsford he would probably be 6/4. At 4 times the price I am willing to take the risk.

    I have also had my first Grand national bet on 0.75pt e/w on Final Nudge (I do like Vintage Clouds but not 100% sure he will get in)-Fits all the trends other than the class 2 win however I think there is enough proof that he has enough class for this (1st start 2nd behind Definitely Red, 2nd start beat Thistlecrack, 4th start 4th behind Barters Hill, Buveur Dair and Altior, 2nd in a Grade 2 to Uknowhatimeanharry over hurdles, 2nd in the Badger Ales and 3rd in Welsh Grand National. The going stick today is at 3.7 which very heavy. The Becher in December was ran on heavy and it was 5.0 than. Now it may improve a bit but it looks like it will be a similar sort of ground to what we had 2 years ago so I am looking for a dour stayer and this horse carried 11st6lb at the Welsh National. Next time the trip was too short and I am willing to forgive his Cheltenham run given he was ridden far less handily than normal (possibly intentionally). The price at the moment looks huge.

    Nick Mazur 10/04/18 10:16 PM Reply


    • Understand the thought on FINAL NUDGE, he may become my 4th pick, like you say he has it in the locker, it`s if it turns up on the day… The going will tell and everyone has forgotten the form of the Sefton…Gas Line Boy will be everyone’s undoing, bar mine..hahaha

      Stewart 11/04/18 7:42 AM Reply


      • If you want to back a horse who is 12, wears a visor, has fallen more than 2 times in his career and is running off a mark higher than the 30 lengths he was beaten last year be my guest. Wouldn’t be a shock if he places but is poor value. Was a treble figure price 12 months ago.

        Nick Mazur 11/04/18 7:59 AM Reply


        • To be fair i did take him at 66`s in December prior to his Sefton run. I agree, but, if the ground comes up soft i think he will come alive here over these fences, just watch his Grand Sefton run ,how he stayed on his feet is a miracle..He is definitely in the Amberleigh House mould..

          Stewart 11/04/18 8:04 AM Reply


          • The Grand National is a one off and a bit of fun as long as it is safe. So fun bets the order of the day and no serious stuff. It is open and so obviously we have multiple selections on this blog. All views are valid and can be challenged. Good luck.

            martin colwell 11/04/18 9:49 AM Reply


    • Hi NM
      6/1 is not 4 times bigger than 6/4. It’s just over double.

      Dan 11/04/18 9:55 AM Reply


      • Errm 6/4 is 1.5 and 6/1 is 6. 6/1.5 is 4. Am I missing something? Back to school you go Dan!

        Nick Mazur 11/04/18 10:20 AM Reply


      • Not sure how the new fangled machines work these days but 50 yrs ago we were taught something called ‘mental arithmetic’ and 1.5 times 4 always came out as 6.haha
        Mike

        titus_a_duxass 11/04/18 10:28 AM Reply


        • The best way to compare is by converting to percentages. 6/4 is a 40% chance. 6/1 is a 14.3% chance, so the ratio is 2.8:1.

          Andy N 11/04/18 11:38 AM Reply


          • Andy we are not talking about chances (I mentioned nothing about chances) but that 6/1 is 4 times a big a price as 6/4. Are you disputing this?

            Nick Mazur 11/04/18 12:17 PM Reply


            • No, fair point, Nick. Sorry, you’re right. I thought you were talking about chances rather than prices.

              Andy N 11/04/18 1:21 PM Reply


  • Does tommorow The Reds demolishin Cit
    If yes Liverpool change name to Klopool i guess

    Pab888 10/04/18 10:17 PM Reply


  • REPLY to Chubnut

    sorry to read that you don’t appear to have enjoyed your three month trial with Ian/SP2A but that is the purpose of trials and, like what I do, it won’t be for everyone. You are welcome to any views you wish on the quality of a service or how that is delivered.

    However… please don’t question Ian’s integrity. (and therefore by association, my own) That is the only thing in this game/my online existence, or indeed my real life existence, that I really can’t accept. I have worked with Ian for what will be 8-9 months now and he is as honest and upfront as they come, no doubt in life, but certainly in my business dealings and indeed with how he runs his service. You have no right to question the ‘upfront genuine attitude’ unless you wish to provide me with evidence to the contrary, at which point i’ll take it up with Ian. You can email me.

    Everything is proofed to the independent Racing Index, so you can see the results for SP (which RI record to 1/2 EW) and Betfair SP (which RI record to 1 point EW I believe) Ian does that for every Tipster on his team that is used for tips and, since early 2018, has also started proofing just the ‘SP2A Tips’, as they are delivered in the emails to members- so you can see one summary, as well as breakdowns by tipsters if you so wish. Given they have made around a 20% ROI to ISP since the beginning, 6/7 years now, I would strongly advise against laying them over the long term 🙂

    I don’t know what your points about ‘Billy Sollocks’ etc refer to, but I suspect you do not like engaging with/appreciate the non tipping elements of Ian’s daily delivery,which is unique to him. That is fine, but you’re free to dive into that as you please or ignore it, and many members will enjoy flicking through the various prose.

    Your judgement should be made on the tips… a horses name, with a staking amount next to it… 1/4 point EW through to 1 point EW as is their range. For refund purposes the trial periods are based on those advised stakes to SP. By all means line me up all the tipping services out there willing to be judged/marketed to ISP. Another indication of honesty. Put simply those are the horses you are judging on- quite frankly what follows after that in any daily email is there to use/ignore/track/paper trade etc as you wish. Ian has now started recording results for ‘mentions’ so that over time you can see how they do and again make a judgement. But the core are the ‘tips’ , and while I may have my own views on staking etc, those are clear. I have yet to find a better tipping service in terms of the horses they pick/the value obtained/the ability to make profit to SP.

    I believe Ian is sending out a results email today or tomorrow for the previous three months. This will clearly state P/L to advised stakes to SP + advised prices. And there will no doubt be plenty more detail following that on ROI and the different tipsters etc, and comparisons to 1 point EW, + the mentions. Clearly you can question any of those results and take those up with Ian, he is more than happy to receive emails/enquiries. I’d rather a service goes into more detail than just the bare bones. Ian has nothing to hide and never has done. As with anything, you can pick and choose the bits you want.

    But your ultimate judgement should just be on the Tips, and whatever stakes you follow/amount you bet/prices you get. You should be keeping your own results so you know where you’re up to also, and as a means of politely questioning anything, results wise, you may disagree with. Ian is more than happy to be taken to task if he’s made a genuine error (as am I) – i’ve done that myself and suggested the odd area for improvement (not putting a monetary value on mentions, keeping results for mentions and proofing to Racing Index for ‘all tips’ as delivered, not just the individual tipsters- he’s taken on board and accepted all of those)

    So, clearly by all means vote with your feet. That is your prerogative and it doesn’t bother me. But don’t question Ian’s integrity, that just isn’t on, from my experience and the evidence i have seen. My opinion can always change if the facts change.

    To finish on SP2A.. I would point out that to advised prices in trial 1 (Oct-Dec) the tips made +350 odd points to 1 point EW, or +175 to 1/2 EW, or +87.5 to 1/4 EW all tips. I can see why 80% of those who joined for the trial 1 stayed, and it looks likely it will be a similar conversion for trial 2. So, i’ll take that as a good sign as to the overall satisfaction. Trial 2 hasn’t been as profitable but it has been a tough 3 months for the sport, what with the weather etc.

    I asked a long standing member of RTP (since day 1 of blog), who joined on trial one, how they have been getting on… they made +£873 in Oct to Dec.

    Since Jan 1st, betting £5 EW a ‘mention horse’ , £7.50 EW on a 1/4 point advised tip, £10 EW on a 1/2 point EW advised tip, £12.5 EW on a 1 point EW tip, they have won +£1950, to date, in 2018. They are staying for a little bit longer! As an example. When Ian sends out his update we can see the state of play for tips to advised stakes/prices/SP and other permutations.

    No service is perfect. I think I could simplify things on here at times, and I’ve made clear to Ian a few times that things could be clearer/less is more, but everything he does is with the best intentions and at times I feel he almost wants to over-deliver and not disappoint. That is his drive.

    Right, that’s SP2A done, now RTP…

    i’m glad you enjoy the site, much appreciated. But please don’t insinuate that i’m trying desperately hard to get my grubby hands on any earners I can 🙂 Since i’ve had my email list from mid 2014, so nearly 4 years, i have advised readers explicitly to trial/take a look at/try just 6 tipping services I believe. I can stand to be corrected but it is under 10 and I think 6 is correct, as well as the odd other free email list etc, + other non tipping services such as Geegeez/Inform/Gavin P/Ben A. I could advise you to join 6 services a week if I so pleased, but I have never really wanted to go down that route, for a variety of reasons. I have also turned down around 5ks worth of advertising revenue on this blog in recent months- I don’t wish it to be littered with various links and I never want bookies adverts anywhere near RTP. I’ll have failed if that ever happens. Believe it or not my views on the quality of a service and your likely experience, and indeed the people behind a service, come way before any commission consideration. The point is that when I say ‘this service could be good for reasons X,Y,Z’ you have to trust me, and as soon as you don’t, then i’ve failed again. Clearly I am running a business, I don’t hide from that, but it certainly isn’t a money orientated one. It would be apparent if that was my drive and I doubt i’d have many members or many people on my email list.

    …your point in brackets, I don’t understand.. (increased tipping as opposed to discussion?) in term of the members content, that has been the same structure for 12months + now I think, and hasn’t changed. If you are referring to fellow members who post… well none of us have a right to criticise what they write on anything racing related, given they have taken the time to put their head above the parapet and write something – there has always been a mix of comments for members to use/ignore as they please, and any member, including yourself, is free to pose a question/discussion point on racing, that you want some views on :).

    However, I am always open to polite criticism and suggestions for improvement. There are a few areas I need to improve on, esp around advised strategies and helping us all plot a systematic route forward that can win say 100+ points per year. And you’re always free to email me etc.

    I think that covers everything I wanted to say. I do not wish this post/thread to turn into a morbid slagging match about services X,Y,Z. You are free to email Ian on any problems, and copy me in if you so please.

    Best, Josh

    Josh 11/04/18 9:07 AM Reply


    • Hi Josh,

      I said it before but I’m happy to repeat….the wisdom of racing available on this site is worth the fee alone (as most on here would agree).
      I’ve learned more in the last 18 months than the previous 15yrs, that’s down largely to your approach Josh as well as the regular posters.
      I started keeping proper records since last Sept and I’m up 300pts since (covering a range of systems/tips).
      For anyone newly signed up, there’s a lot to digest initially but stick with it, listen to Josh + the regular posters and I promise you won’t need to look anywhere else for racing info/tips in the future.
      My own punting is showing profit over the last 3 months, another 3 or so I might join the party for tips for the new NH season.
      Keep up the good work Josh!

      Joe H 11/04/18 10:10 AM Reply


      • Hi Joe, much appreciated, cheque is in the post haha. I’d like to think most who have the long term lens fixed on, who ease in, want to learn (as we all should do to a point) and improve, will enjoy the experience over time. As always it is about being happy with your own progress and P/L over time, however you get stuck into the content. And I suspect your last 3 months of personal profit/progress have given you plenty of satisfaction!
        I just need to nail what I will call the +100 point portfolio on the systems front… this jumps season hasn’t really gone anywhere as yet, but jumps S1, Flat S6 with any luck will get us up to that point over a year, i still have faith in S4, still +56 or so over Flat + Jumps since inception 2017 despite 2016 slump.. ‘S2A’ may end up being a +100 point a year job just by itself with any luck, S3A Double looks promising, as does ‘w1 / w2’ – so, plenty there, just about getting enough evidence for some and steering a past… ultimately, while there is plenty going on, the baseline judgement should be a systematic portfolio created from section 1. And in truth there is the odd question on that front in last couple of months!
        On we go,
        Josh

        Josh 11/04/18 10:23 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh,
    As you were watching the reds win I attended the London Racing Club Aintree Preview with Paul Jacobs and Declan Rix and it was a very enjoyable evening. I’ll share their views with you and the members. Use as you please.
    Thursday; Both keen on We have a dream for henderson, Worth opposing Might Bite after it’s hard race; Bristol de Mai DR or Double shuffle PJ if 8 go to post-ew.
    Couldn’t oppose Supersundae but no price. Cyrius Darius ew
    PJ keen on Barrakilla in Foxhunters DR says oppose on the fringe.
    In Red Rum PJ keen on Bun Doran
    Day 2;PJ very keen on Loug Derg Spirit- says watch last race as finished like a train! DR says stowaway magic well h’capped in same race.
    DR very keen on Global Citizen, excellent run at kempton back it for next yr’s champ hurdle. Both keen on Ms Parois- DJ believes Elegant Escape shuld be favourite and great ew bet to nothing! 3.25; Can’t oppose Balko des Flos.
    Topham no real fancies but DR put in mention of ; vintage, Regal Flow, Henderson’s Kilcrea Vale. PJ says if Rogue Angel came here he would be interested.
    Day 3; National;Both v. keen on Vintage clouds- back it as money returned if it doesn’t get in. Jumping has really improved and think going / track tailor made. Neither very keen on any of the principles for one reason or another. Alpha Des Obeax high up on both their lists. DR keen on Regal Encore. DR top 3: Vintage Clouds, Regal Encore, Uchello Conti. PJ Vintage Clouds, Alpha Des Obeaux, Carlinford Lough. If bottomless Raz de Mare and Houblon Des Obeaux enter calculations.
    NB. PJ says back Tellor Nervernais and lay after 1st circuit as will prob be leading.
    Others; Bells of Ainsworth in 3.25 (PJ).

    As an aside I won 2 tickets to Friday but found out that wife alread booked something and I have kids to lok after so if anyone wants tickets please let me know asap.

    Good luck

    reillysmiley 11/04/18 9:18 AM Reply


    • Good stuff, some interesting nuggets in there, much appreciated.
      I think we could back half the GN field and probably not land on the winner haha.
      Josh

      Josh 11/04/18 9:22 AM Reply


    • Sorry I missed it, the first one i have missed for ages. Paul Jacobs is always good at chatting to the attendees about horse racing, golf, football etc. I write some articles for the club magazine every now and again.

      martin colwell 11/04/18 10:03 AM Reply


      • Hi Martin,

        Yes a good night and enjoyable banter.
        Good luck.

        reillysmiley 11/04/18 11:31 AM Reply


  • A brilliant reply Josh. Very eloquent which i am not. In my opinion the nutjob doesnt warrant such a reasoned response,but its all about opinions i suppose.

    Roddo 11/04/18 9:31 AM Reply


    • It is all about opinions of which they are all entitled to aired, with the same entitlement to a response – please stop spoiling for a reply, it’s Chubnut. 🙂

      Josh 11/04/18 9:34 AM Reply


  • All this Grand National talk pah, we’ve got a nice AW meet at Kempton to look at before then 🙂

    Speaking of which, Jacob Cats in the 8.15 makes a lot of sense. 2 wins from 8 over C&D. SDS jocked on, who’s 3 wins from 5 on him. Horse is taking a class drop after being beaten by 4 lengths in a class 2 and is 3lbs below its last winning mark. I went for a 1 point win at 8/1

    JamesP 11/04/18 9:36 AM Reply


  • After yesterday’s wash out taking the races I had my eye on, back today with a couple of selections. -1.5pts after day one.

    4:40 Market Rasen:
    Shortlist Cyclop/Thedrinkymeister/MillyBaloo
    Cyclop; A keen stayer who won the Lincolnshire National by digging deep, only up 2lb from that win but was PU last month at Warwick which could indicate a slight drop in form at the moment. Big niggle for me the his capability at this trip, I just think 3m is too short for him. Reckon there’s a good chance he runs well but in the last mile the pace is too much. Thedrinkymeister; had two nice placed runs for previous trainer Bailey this year but switched yards after poor run LTO. Is comfortable on today’s going along with the ability for the trip, his mark is definitely workable right now but the caution is this will his first run for new yard so could be any kind of run. Milly Baloo; should have claimed her second win back in February at Catterick but ran out when clear at the finish. Got a credible fourth LTO over fences at Haydock which may indicated a resurgence in form, drop down in class today and only up 3lbs from that near win back in February.

    Selections:
    0.5pt EW – Thedrinkymeister (10/1 Bet365, 9/1 gen)
    0.5pt EW – Milly Baloo (8/1 Bet365, 15/2 gen)

    Chris M 11/04/18 9:54 AM Reply


    • Well Thedrinkymeister done the job and from the front all the way, he was well backed into 10/3 so getting that 10/1 odds really prove some value. Milly Baloo looked strong but faltered coming into the last half mile, just could not keep up with the eventual winner. Cyclop looked to be coming into a nice position coming down the home straight but maybe the fast pace took too much out of him as his concentration slipped as he fell 3 out. However a nice +5.25 pts today so +3.75pts overall. Back tomorrow with potentially 2 races but waiting to see the going at Aintree before I wade in

      Chris M 11/04/18 11:49 PM Reply


  • Can I just say something about tipping sites briefly – I have several years experience of working with tipsters and have written some articles on the subject. They come in all shapes and sizes, some just give tips, some write some notes re selections and some write about other things as well. But there are only two things that you should ever focus on with tipsters:
    1. They can proof their results independently, and 2. They make long term profits on selections. Nothing else.
    If you can find four such tipsters there is no reason why you cannot make £20K a year with reasonable stakes (£25 – £50). You may have to use exchanges as well as bookmakers but it is do able. Tipsters are for those who want to make money from betting. They are a waste of money if you do not back all the selections regardless of dips and highs in form.

    martin colwell 11/04/18 10:20 AM Reply


  • Aintree going according to bha website : Mildmay – Good to Soft, Soft in places Hurdle – Good to Soft, Soft Stand side National – Soft (GoingStick: Mildmay 4.2 Hurdle 4.1 National 3.7 on Tuesday at 14:00).
    ????? …..i’m no expert on stick readings, but i thought heavy was 5.2 ! desperate to get Mite bite to turn up i suppose

    jamesm 11/04/18 10:29 AM Reply


    • I believe Becher chase was around 4.00 or so, and that was described as heavy?? It is proper soft!
      Josh

      Josh 11/04/18 10:34 AM Reply


  • Martin’s dead right about following tipsters. You have to back all their selections to get the true picture and if your portfolio of tipsters all pick a different horse in the same race, you still have to back them.

    As for Josh promoting other services, he is like ourselves in being amongst the least aggressive marketeers out there.

    traf69 11/04/18 11:47 AM Reply


  • Re: the Aintree stuff of mine that Josh has posted up top, I have to hold my hands up to a schoolboy error in that I misread some data (must get some specs) and I WON’T be backing NTD’s runners, but I will back Tizzard’s aged 5 to 11.

    traf69 11/04/18 11:50 AM Reply


  • Oh and as for Minella Scamp / Lip Service highlighted above…

    Fergal O’Brien’s handicap chasers at Market Rasen in April to August inclusive are 6 from 20 (30% SR) for 44.5pts (+222.5% ROI) at SP and 64.4pts at Betfair SP (+322%), but Paddy is only 1 from 6 on them.

    traf69 11/04/18 11:57 AM Reply



Post A Reply