Members Daily Post: 10/04/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Southwell

2.00 – Beni Light (m1) 9/1

 

Hexham 

3.20- Orioninverness (hncp c + m1) ES+ H3 G3 7/2 S3A

4.25 – Moorstown (hncp c + m1) ES+ I3 8/1 S5 (IF 11.00+ BFSP)

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No stats profile for Hereford. 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to April 1st 2018)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 1st April 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 4/49,18p, +0.5)  (1 point win bets)

NOTES

None… looks a mediocre day of racing, on the stats qualifiers front anyway, and nothing i’d really want to dive into with my full tipping point. Beni Light is interesting to a point in that he ‘could be anything’ over fences, dropping in class and trip here. George was 5/7 in Southwell C5s before this season started and this one was travelling well LTO and about to take it up 4 out before a shuddering error that knocked his confidence and that was that. There are some concerns over the form of the yard also and he bumps into 3/4 chasers who are in form here. He was also hesitant enough at most fences LTO and needs to improve. I wanted a bigger price but I wouldn’t dismiss him from running a better race if getting his jumping together. Orioninverness felt about the right price although my judgement at that end can be questionable… he won this race last year but hopefully can improve on the ‘S3A Double/Treble Rated’ stats. There were more signs of life LTO and maybe Russell has been bringing him along slowly. But, it’s a class 5 at Hexham and 7/2 could be deemed as short for any horse in such conditions! We shall see. I also pondered Walkers Point below for the Irish Raiders angle.. i’m fascinated to see what the market does with him. It is the trainer’s only runner on the card and he’s put him on a ferry to contest a C4 novice handicap hurdle at Hexham, and a shockingly poor one at that. It’s his 3rd run for the yard and only his 5th handicap hurdle. For some reason his previous trainer kept running him in maiden hurdles with no success. He drops back to 16f which in this ground may be ideal for him. His run three starts ago at Clonmel was decent, where he was outstayed. But he had a couple of subsequent multiple winners around him that day, who are both rated 110+ now. His trainer is fairly new to the scene but he is 2/11 with al hurdlers returning after 60+ days off. I have had a small go at 10s on Bet365 just to find out really – he is 8s across the board which given his profile could be deemed as short enough, and at least some of the others are fit/in form. This one struggles or he hacks up doing handstands I suspect. Not one to go mad on but I couldn’t resist a small interest wager (5 for me, which I suppose is a 1/4 point for my usual 1 point tipping stake)

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

5.10 South – Jarveys Plate (m2) 4/1

Irish Raiders (16/1<)

2.50 Hex – Walkers Point 8/1

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Handicap Chase Starting Points (10/1< best)

2.00 South – Lickpenny Larry

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4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

Aintree GN Meeting 2018

Final Report: READ HERE>>>

I’ve assembled everything into one place.. the Grand National trends/stats, handicap hurdles and some other stats from a previous report, as previously seen. + also now the stats/trends for the three other handicap chases.

You can also read 2016s report if you so wish, HERE>>> (which is in the research link in Key also)

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Results Update 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

33 Comments

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  • I’m sad to have to say its time to drop Paddy Brennan from the test zone. He’s hardly rode a winner in 2018 and from his last 50 rides he has had two winners @ 1/1 and 7/4. He is just not getting the rides for the better stables. He hardly rides for Tizzard anymore apart from Cue Card.
    He had 95 winners last season but this season he only has 65. He got off to a flyer this season but as said before since the turn of the year the quality of rides has not been there. Its a shame because i still believe he has a lot to offer but the people who pay the bills do not appear to share my view.

    Roddo 09/04/18 6:41 PM Reply


    • He’s not doing too bad on the test zone 🙂 As of the last update before this week just gone, 13/69,27p, +3.25 – which while not pulling up many trees isn’t too shabby, and a lot of his fortunes are linked to OBrien as they have been for some time, and he has been quiet enough in recent weeks. It’s no shock that his good form earlier in the season was tied to that of OBrien’s. The test zone isn’t just about an angle to back blind, they are meant to be another set of ‘starting points’ on which to do further analysis if you wish, and those stats above are a decent enough foundation for that.
      I do share some of your sentiment, and get the feeling he is going out of fashion a tad, although I say that without any facts of number of rides outside of Obrien etc. Given the number of quality young jockeys about it will always get harder for one at the stage of his career. He can still do the job when getting the ammo.
      Josh

      Josh 09/04/18 7:02 PM Reply


      • Some good points Josh. The one problem with the O’Brien stable is, one of the main owners,The Rooneys will not let Paddy anywhere near one of theirs. Today the best chance for the O’Brien stable was Lungarno Palace,which like when it won last time out was ridden by A.P.Cowley.

        Roddo 09/04/18 7:19 PM Reply


        • Since 26th March Fergal O’Brien has had 8 runners and Paddy Brennan been on 6 of them A Crawley been on 1,it is now becoming wind down time for the NH apart from Aintree and Sandown.
          Next season Fergal and his very able assistant Sally Randell should rise up the trainers list and Paddy will be a major player for them.

          colin leafe 09/04/18 8:29 PM Reply


        • Do you have proof that your statement that the Rooney’s will not let Paddy anywhere near one of theirs.
          Fergal has at this moment 86 horses in his stable and the Rooney’s have only 7 of the 86,and i will predict that he will have over 100 or more horses by the start of next NH season and Paddy will be the stables number one jockey.
          If my memory serves me well when Sally Randell had her short spell as a trainer AP Crawley rode for her and when she joined forces with Fergal, AP Crawley came with her along with other members of her staff.
          I took great interest in Sally’s training career which she had good success in a short time, and she used to work for my friend Dai Williams and she is a lovely girl.

          colin leafe 09/04/18 9:23 PM Reply


          • On the evidence i think it’s safe to say the Rooneys don’t like paddy which may be more to do with their racing manager Jason Maguire..maybe they have history. But I don’t think Paddy has ridden any of them this season or in recent months and he’s been available at track to ride most from memory. They may have a policy of picking who they deem to be the best available/suited to horse. But does seem they have a preference not to use him. But he won’t be short of rides next year for Fergal, I wouldn’t think. But a lot can change.

            Josh 09/04/18 10:08 PM Reply


      • Perhaps he should give it a go back in Ireland, although there are a lot of up and coming jockeys over there as well. Perhaps he could attach himself to one of the younger trainers who are trying to make a name in the game? I guess it depends on what his motivations are now?

        martin colwell 09/04/18 7:29 PM Reply


  • Vieux Lille Hereford Tuesday 15:10 1.5pt win 7/1 taken

    Nick Mazur 09/04/18 9:17 PM Reply


  • Evening Josh,

    Do you have any indication when you’ll be running the trends on the National entries to create the shortlist from those stats and trends your previously identified. There’s a couple I’m quite sweet on, but I’m conscious they don’t qualify on the trends.

    Cheers,
    Lee

    Lee Hayward 09/04/18 9:21 PM Reply


    • Oh well never let stats put you off a fancy if you like the price,esp in that race! Nothing worse than crossing off a National winner due to outside influence!
      Hmm…well ideally i get to do it with HRB so it automates it all and fires out quals at click of a mouse..but that wouldn’t be until Friday so maybe I’m best going through Wed or something as a first run,manually. And doing it Sat morning when a tad groggy may not be ideal. Maybe that’s why I’ve yet to find the winner haha.
      Yep I’ll aim to get some preliminary thoughts by Wed afternoon.
      Josh

      Josh 09/04/18 10:04 PM Reply


      • Marvellous, you’re a star. I’ve had a few quid on already, but I wanted to get a view on the trend qualifiers too before I went in too deep on anything. I’m hoping they can eliminate a fair sized chunk of the market and leave a couple of juicy ones for us to go at.

        Lee Hayward 09/04/18 10:16 PM Reply


    • Let us know what horses they were and we will run them around the turntable. I can start you all off with one. Why wont Total Recall not win the National?

      martin colwell 09/04/18 10:08 PM Reply


      • Well unless your name is Red Marauder no horse has won after falling LTO. In fact any that have have only finished once and that was 17th. There is also the poor Gold Cup record. Also no horse has won with less than 10 chase starts since earth Summit in 1998. I probably could go on but that’s just five minutes. So all in all a terrible price.

        Nick Mazur 09/04/18 10:19 PM Reply


        • Agreed, I was just starting a debate. However….the horse is trained by the wizard called Mullins and so all is possible. I do like the spectacle of the race but am not excited about having a bet in it. I will have a go though to say I found the winner for credibility purposes. No idea at present.

          martin colwell 09/04/18 10:26 PM Reply


          • Yeah I know mate was just addressing your request as to why he won’t win. I think Vintage Clouds is very solid if he gets in.

            Nick Mazur 09/04/18 10:48 PM Reply


            • conversely, I haven’t seen a better round of jumping from a horse than I Just Know when he won the North Yorkshire National at Catterick. A stable mate of Vintage Clouds.

              Paul 10/04/18 8:28 AM Reply


          • Willie Mullins chasers over 2.5 miles and beyond at the Aintree Festival are 0 from 51 over the past 12 years, I think.

            traf69 10/04/18 9:41 AM Reply


            • Have you read Black Swan by Nicholas Nassim Taleb? However the value would not be there as Mullins horses get over bet. There is value in the stats buster where you have a non fashionable trainer etc.

              martin colwell 10/04/18 10:56 AM Reply


      • The ones that caught my eye were, in no particular order The Dutchman, Virgilio and Captain Redbeard.

        Cheers.
        Lee

        Lee Hayward 09/04/18 10:21 PM Reply


        • Tizzard the Wizard trains The Dutchman? Good record at the meeting in recent years. I like the name Captain Redbeard. The once a year players will latch on to that one on the day and bring its price down.

          martin colwell 09/04/18 10:38 PM Reply


      • I would say that TR’s win of the ‘Hennessey’ with Whisper 9l clear of the third is the best form on offer. Can he jump the fences is the same question they all have to answer.
        I’d recommend covering stakes on the race with a win bet (at least).

        chrisrees 10/04/18 10:47 AM Reply


  • Did you hear Lucinda Russells interview on Sat when she said they had backed One for Arthur from Jan 17 onwards and have now done the same with Capt Redbeard which is not one of hers??
    I had a nibble at 66s ew.
    My other one so far before josh puts up his shortlist is MILANSBAR 40s ew.
    I have had a poor couple of days with the horses but Patrick Reed got me my losses back at 50s.

    Colin
    Is there any trends with following the top 10 masters finishers for the rest of the season in how well they have done in the past years.
    My trend for Dustin Johnston is holding up. The winner of the Champions event in Hawaii does poorly for the rest of the season so hope you don’t post him as one of your selections this season.

    Mike

    mickeydee 09/04/18 11:55 PM Reply


    • I did and I have followed him to an extent this year, he’s been steadily progressive, but my only fear is, whether or not he has the class to win this, the rest of his profile in terms of experience looks good. I’m sure I’ve also read that a run over hurdles in the race preceding the national was a good trend?

      Lee Hayward 10/04/18 7:22 AM Reply


    • Hi Mike
      Still kicking myself for not putting Dustin Johnson up in Hawaii probably his price was to short and every Tom,Dick and Mike as picked this trend up that Dustin is a fast starter,he finished 10th in the Masters so may be worth looking at the top prize money events for he is the top ranked player in the World.
      Like my AW Racing bets my Golf bets again is a simple approach and my first port of call is the players course form.
      Dustin early starter
      Brenden Steele plays his best golf in the last three months of the season every year so he will be know doubt be tipped again over this period for which have had 50/1 and 33/1 about him in the past.

      colin leafe 10/04/18 9:19 AM Reply


  • Josh
    The A King stat in the GN report relates to both hurdles and chases, I assume?

    chrisrees 10/04/18 10:38 AM Reply


    • Yep unless stated it will be all runners.

      Josh 10/04/18 10:40 AM Reply


  • Tips – One for today. 2.10 HER, Shroughmore Lass for 2 points at 9/2 BOG. A competitive 7 runner race but a consistent horse with a reasonable weight, who should see the race out OK.
    Minus 11.6 points in April so far!

    martin colwell 10/04/18 10:43 AM Reply


  • I’ve got quite a bit of stat stuff for Aintree and Josh has given me the go ahead to post some here.

    Some of this might be new to you, some probably won’t! But either way, here are some angles you might consider this week…

    1. For those interested in how the big yards fare…
    Elliott : back all 5-10 yr olds
    Henderson : back 4-6 yr olds esp in NHF
    Mullins : avoid all, esp chasers
    Nicholls : avoid all aged 5+
    Tizzard : back those aged 7+
    Twister : back his hurdlers and NHF runners

    2. Since 2010 at the “Festival”, horses racing over 2m to 3m1f stepping up in trip by 2.5f or 3f from a run at the Cheltenham festival last time out, where they were beaten into 2nd, 3rd or 4th, going down by a head to 10 lengths : 14 winners from 53 (26.4% SR) for 54.94pts at SP (+103.7% ROI) and 87.13pts (+164.4%) at betfair SP.

    3. And since 2015 in Class 1 contests at 2.5 miles and beyond, former Class 1 winners who finished 3rd to 6th inclusive or fell Last time out 26 to 45 days earlier are 7/15 (46.7% SR) for 114pts (+760%) at SP and 174.53pts (+1163.6%) at Betfair SP.

    And finally… the big one itself… 17 of the last 18 National winners were males from Ireland/France/UK, aged 8 to 12, wearing either blinkers or no headgear at all.

    They were priced at 7/1 to 100/1 and were rated at 136 to 160 carrying 10st 3lbs to 11st 9lbs.

    They were stepping up in trip by at least 3 furlongs from a last run 20 to 84 days earlier at one of the following : Cheltenham / Doncaster / Down Royal / Fairyhouse / Haydock / Kelso / Leopardstown / Naas / Newcastle / Punchestown / Uttoxeter / Warwick where they finished in the first eight home or were pulled up/fallers.

    They had 3 to 10 runs in the previous 12 months, had at least one prior NH win under their belts and had won at 3 miles or further.

    To get the 17 winners would have taken 134 bets : this 12.7% strike rate yielding 323pts profit at SP at an ROI of 241%.

    traf69 10/04/18 11:21 AM Reply


    • Cheers Chris, plenty to get stuck into there! Be interesting if what could be a GN ‘shortlist’ of 13 or so includes the winner this year.
      Josh

      Josh 10/04/18 11:34 AM Reply


    • Hi, thanks for posting the stats.

      What is the basis for Elliott stat? The age range is fairly wide. What is the profit figure over the past five years? Can it be refined further?

      Hendo – I would say a better age stat is aged 5 and 6. I think that any real profit here will come from the handicaps.

      Nicholls – I would say avoid all based upon recent course forms.

      You have to be wary of the ROI stats on the GN as we have had a 100/1 winner and two more at big odds. If Heineken made stats busters they would be grey, a mare, aged 7 and have a female jockey. So step forward Baie Des Iles. 66/1 into 20/1.

      martin colwell 10/04/18 1:32 PM Reply


      • The trainers stats are just generalised starting points to be honest.

        traf69 10/04/18 3:45 PM Reply


  • No worries at all, Josh.
    Been meaning to share some stuff for a while now.

    traf69 10/04/18 1:24 PM Reply


  • And even if you removed the 100/1 GN winner, the returns are good.

    traf69 10/04/18 3:47 PM Reply


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