Free Daily Post: 09/04/18 (comp/Tipsx2)

TIPS

2.50 Ludlow

Goohar – 1 point win – 5/1 (gen) 3rd (stuffed)

According To Harry – 1 point win – 20/1 (bet365) 18/1 (gen) UP (stuffed)

Hmm. Poor. Goohar beat Uhlan Bute LTO but that form has been overturned- the winner has appreciated the strong pace and the race has fallen apart somewhat, and Venetia appears to be finding more consistent form. Can live with him winning at 10s but I wasn’t anywhere near him, which I suppose given I fancied Goohar I should have given him more time but I wouldn’t have tipped him, being 1/22 over fences and still had stamina to prove. According to Harry was a poke, ran well enough but lack of run/ground may have combined for a tame finish. Moving on. 

 

Goohar – 5s seems a shade too big to my eyes. He is 1/4,3p in chases at the track, 1/1 over CD and is arguably still unexposed enough over fences at this trip. He arrives here in form having won over CD LTO and given his liking for the place this  has no doubt been a target. Daly is in form, 1/7,5p in the last 14 days, and i’d like to think he will run his race again. There really is no excuse not for him to go close here and given the many questions over the others around him near the top of the market, i’m happy to have a poke.

According To Harry – sometimes you just look at a price and think it’s too big. Way too big. This horse could fall out the back of the TV but I have no idea why he is 18s+. He could easily be 9s or so in this line up to my eyes. The horse has only had 7 chase runs, winning two of them and is another who appears to like Ludlow – 1/2,2p over CD. That alone makes this price seem big. There is every chance the extra 2f or so LTO stretched him and the move back down to 24 looks sure to suit. He has clearly had the odd issue given how lightly raced he is although I suspect they have been saving him for the better ground, which he should get here. There is a chance he wants no ‘soft’ anywhere near the going description but at this price I had to play. Fitness is a questions also but the trainer is 1/9,4p with chasers returning 60+ days off and this one has placed here after 235 days off before. I expect his jockey to be aggressive and hopefully may take this up down the back straight if/when the Bailey horse starts to tire. Looked worth a stab at those lofty odds.

of the rest… well, to an extent you are taking a leap of faith with anything else in here. Sir Ivan was poor over fences when last seen and has the odd question, although race conditions are fine and at least he won LTO, an AW NHF race. Western Climate…well on his two back to back wins he may deserve to be this price. He was outclassed two starts ago but still ran with credit but ran no sort of race in the Midlands National, when I fancied him to run well. I suppose he ran well to a point but made a couple of errors and he didn’t get home. That was a hard race and in that context his price is short enough, although were he to bounce back to his winning form, he will go very close. The hope in taking him on is that his last race/this season, has taken plenty out of him already. Fourth Act is just short for one with a few questions now. He doesn’t like winning that often although clearly if he ran to his best over fences he would probably win this well. But 10/3 is too short to find out to my eyes. He can win unbacked at those odds, no bother. Sonneofpresenting – Bailey is 0/11,0p in the last 14 days, which may or may not be any indication as to his form. In that context and the 163 day break, I was happy to leave him at his odds of 6/1. That feels about right to my eyes and he shouldn’t get an easy lead. He looks like he wants ‘proper good’ also. But, not without some sort of chance. Famous last words, but I can’t have the other two! Although on Sat I failed to mention the eventual 16/1 winner so who knows!

PACE.. Bailey’s will try and get on with it and According To Harry, if good enough to lay up, won’t be far away. Neither will Fourth Act. Goohar should just track those three I imagine. There won’t be an excuse on the pace front.

That’s the lot for today.

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

5 Comments

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  • AW BETS
    Wolverhampton
    7.15 Emigrated
    8.15 The Kings Steed

    Aprils profit so far 3.125 points or + £31.25 to £10 stakes at Bookmakers SP

    Total profit since Feb 39.516 points or + £395.16 to £10 stakes at Bookmakers SP

    colin leafe 09/04/18 10:01 AM Reply


  • GOLF
    Not the Masters result i wanted but full credit to Patrick Reed for holding his nerve those last 9 holes must have felt like never ending,for me he was very impressive.

    Results from Jan to end of Mar + 11.45 to level stakes

    Top Rated Player Jan to end of Mar + 7 points to level stakes

    colin leafe 09/04/18 10:11 AM Reply


    • Yes the golf was going very well after round 2 with a guaranteed approx 20% return if any of the top 7 won. The rally by Rahm and Fowler then left me exposed so i ended up covering them. Spieth had me worried in the final round but he was already partly covered. Came out of it with just 6% ROI and a few more grey hairs. Profit is profit though so happy enough.

      Chris Marshall 09/04/18 1:19 PM Reply


  • Your exact comments Josh on the winner is exactly why I dropped him from my final 3 shortlist I posted on the members comment section. One of those ones you take on the chin and move on. I still have the 4:45 at Kempton so still chance for profit for me today.

    Chris M 09/04/18 3:15 PM Reply


    • Yep, i have stared at him post race and really was nowhere near, and wasn’t near after knowing he had won! Were Venetia in ‘red hot’ form going into today, that may have sparked more interest..but he didn’t exactly stay on LTO to suggest he would see this how…certainly a case of last horse standing I think, and he has just kept going when everything else has stopped. That funny time of year.

      Josh 09/04/18 3:24 PM Reply


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