Members Daily Post: 09/04/18 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

Kempton

4.10 – By The Boardwalk (hncp c) H3 I3 10/1 S2 S5  UP

4.45 – Loves Destination (m2) H1 H3 I1 8/1  PU

5.50 – Predict A Riot (all hncps) 14,30  11/1 S2 

 

Wincanton

3.15 –

Get Out The Gate (hncp h + m1) (hncp h debut ) 14  ES+ 5/1 S3A UP

Reelingintheyears (hncp h + m2) (hncp h debut) w1  8/1 UP

Brynmawr (m1+m2) w2 ES H3 I1 G1 5/1 S3 S4  2nd 

4.55 – Withoutdefavourite (all hncps) H3 6/1  UP

 

Ludlow 

4.30 – Psychocandy (hncp h + m1) 14,30 G3 16/1  S1 S2A  UP 10/1 

 

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KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers:  Flat : HER     Jumps 2017/18HERE>>>

ES + – Elite Squad ‘Plus’ +   (rationale/ angles in link above)

S1-S6 : S = ‘Strategy’ and refers to the ‘advised strategies’ in the link below. S1 = ‘Strategy 1’. Added on morning of racing along with the price. w1– won last start.   w2– won two starts ago (tracking as of 15th Feb 2018)

‘Advised Flat Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>   (updated to April 1st 2018)

‘Advised Jumps Strategies’: Jumps 2017/18 Read HERE>>>  (updated to end 1st April 2018)

Research Articles: (TTP reports/Test Zone/Monthly Articles/Big Meetings Notes/David Peat Profiles) READ HERE>>>

VIDEOS: Members Repository: HERE>>> . All Public (non members only) Videos HERE>>>

IMPORTANT: Welcome Info  HERE>>> (please read) (inc must watch videos :)) 

Contact: email:  – info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  … or failing that… racingtoprofit@gmail.com 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (my subjective thoughts/’tips’)

Test/trial  : ‘NOTES’  (2017 Sept-Dec: 31/176, +110.75)(2018: 4/49,18p, +0.5)  (1 point win bets)

NOTES

5.50 Kemp – Predict A Riot – 11/1 (Sky/WH/BV)

4.30 Lud – Psychocandy – 16/1 (Bet365/Lad/Cor/BV) UP *

Hmm, not sure what to think of that. She does look to have an awkward head carriage, clearly not one to trust too much. In any case they all bumped into a Pipe hotpot there with about 30lb+ in hand! Step up in trip and 1st blinkers on second handicap start doing the job, in what looked an open race. 

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Undoubtedly two pokes here, who could both be beat at halfway, but given the form of their trainer- 4/13,6p last 14 days, I found them hard to leave at the prices…

Psychocandy – both of these races have that mediocre end of season feel to them where every runner appears to have numerous questions to answer and many just appear out of form. This horse is 0/12 in her career and having her 6th handicap hurdle. Her run at Uttoxeter on the 18th November suggests they will find a race for her at some point. I think there are plenty of valid excuses for most runs in her career to date and this race will tell us more. This is only her 3rd run at around this distance over hurdles. She fell in one of those, early on in a race, and came 3rd in the other, at Uttoxeter as above. After that promising Uttoxeter run she raced over 24f in soft at Wetherby, weakening before 2 out and pulling up. She raced over 21f in heavy at Leicester but fell after 7 jumps, before the race had got going in earnest. On her last start she tried chasing, which didn’t appear to go that well. I have a feeling plenty of the Ian Williams brigade were just getting over their winter jabs at the back end of Jan/early Feb also, and i’m pretty sure this is the best form his yard has been in all season. This horse can take a hold so the big field should help although on paper a bit more pace would be ideal. But, at 16s, I didn’t want to over-think it too much. She’s had a break after that last run which may also suggest she hurt herself at Leicester. But coming into races at this time of year ‘fresh’ can be no bad thing. Kennedy has ridden her before and takes over. This feels like a very weak C4 and while she has class to prove, most of these in here are in the same boat. The ground has gone on the soft side which i’m not sure is ideal but I am guessing to a point there, and she hasn’t conclusively proved she can’t handle soft. There are reasons why I wouldn’t be shocked if she went close today, and 16s has just lured me in. If she could build on that Uttoxeter effort (which she may have needed still,being second run after a break having fallen mid race on the first) and stand up for the duration of the race, we could have some fun. I suspect the market will guide with this one, if the price stays static/drifts, I won’t expect too much.

Predict A Riot – (NR, this write up was worth it...) another poke and 11s is just about big enough. This is a shocker of a race on paper and won’t take much winning. It is Williams again and I thought this one looked as interesting as anything else in here. This is the horse’s 4th start for the trainer and interestingly his first over this trip. There is every chance he doesn’t stay 24f+ although he was well beat the last day before stamina was an issue. That was his first run in two months or so and it was in a hands and heels race, ridden by an inexperienced pilot. He also made a hash of a hurdle down the back straight which appeared to knock him, as well as having been keen through the first half of the race. His mark has come down 16lbs in his last 5 runs, he returns after 45 days here, gets a senior pilot on top again, runs for the second time in C5 and drops in trip. His two PU efforts were when wearing CP but clearly he has an iffy profile to date. Hopefully the form of the yard rubs off on him and he improves for the trip and maybe the track.

….dangers... well this race is wide open… the Pauling horse could win well but he has poor form and his price is no doubt based on connections and hope that the wind op works wonders. He is unexposed but at 9/2 seems short. Most in here appear out of form but there are a few lightly raced sorts.. I’ve had a small nibble on Timetobenefit at 25/1, who is lightly raced and steps up markedly in trip. I thought that was interesting at a big price, which suggests he could fall out the back of the tv. Court In The Middle won this race last year, looks to have had a prep LTO, and may give it a good go. Dave Crosse (who rode Psychocandy LTO/a few times) takes the ride and he looks interesting- the soft ground is a big question though, with his best form on Good. But, he is being well backed.

So, a couple of pokes who really are in the ‘could be anything’ category. On what they have done to date they are more ‘could be useless’ types, but I think there is some method to my madness, and i’ll hit a run with these jumps notes horses one day!

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3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Angles

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

3.05 Kemp- Minella Tweet (m3/4) 8/1

4.10 Kemp – Turban (m3/4) 10/1

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Nothing today. I’ll get a results update done asap, and endeavour to finish my Aintree research today.

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

17 Comments

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  • The Mighty Ash Kempton Monday 17:20 1pt e/w 10/1 taken
    Loves Destination Kempton Monday 16:45 1pt e/w 8/1-15/2 taken

    Nick Mazur 08/04/18 8:37 PM Reply


    • I’d be worried that the going will be soft again by the morning with heavy rain due in the night.

      chrisrees 08/04/18 8:59 PM Reply


      • Soft won’t be an issue for either so don’t know why you’re worried 😉

        If they don’t perform I don’t think it will be down to the ground tomorrow.

        Nick Mazur 08/04/18 11:04 PM Reply


  • Ludlow 4.30 Cascaye 25/1 1 point ew 3 places/ 4 places at 22/1 is another option with bet365
    In a very open race with one that potentially could lead I’m having a pop at this one at a price

    This is definitely not a form pick as it has been awful this season but I like that David Bass is back on for the first time since winning at Exeter in February last year.

    Bailey has an excellent strike rate here and its improved upon when Bass is up.
    Bass has an excellent 25% strike rate here over hurdles with 40/10 wins/20 places with a win profit of 89.04 pts and an ew profit of 106.76 points over the past 5 years.

    The horse is returning from a 121 day absence which I hope Mr Bailey has found the key to him but anyway he can ready one after a break.

    This is more likely to be out the back/pu but at 25/1 i’ll take a chance in an open contest.

    Chris Mcilfatrick 08/04/18 10:21 PM Reply


  • Not that I prefer it but the flat season has started right? I mean the Lincoln has been run this year at the traditional opening of the flat season hasn’t it? Or is it the flat season cos it’s just er …. well… very flat? Is there a point in having a start to the turf-no jumping of obstacles-racing if it doesn’t actually start but just goes flat?
    Apparently there’s a possibility of a flat flat (yes I did type that twice) meeting this week with another to follow later in the week. The start of the season paints a picture of a small boy standing in the rain holding a sparkler waiting for it to burn out so he can go home.
    I mean come on, if you’re gonna open a season at least put some bloody effort into getting it going. Surely the moronic archaic fatcat hobnobs who cobble together the fixtures have some sense between them to realise that this is exactly how you don’t open a season. ‘Oh but it’s been a bit cold and too wet to plan fixtures’ they’ll probably grunt, well move the bloody opening back to the weekend after the National then! ‘Oh but it’s traditional to have the Lincoln then’ they’ll probably fart from their slobbery chops, yeah well it doesn’t effin work so start a new tradition.
    The easiest option would be to replace these uncreative cretinous fixture creators with spoons.

    Chris Albin 08/04/18 10:30 PM Reply


    • Is ‘Spoons’ a pseudonym for something else, or are we talking real spoons?

      martin colwell 09/04/18 8:23 AM Reply


      • I think in this case we’ll talk real spoons

        Chris Albin 09/04/18 8:47 AM Reply


        • I’m a national hunt man through and through, but I totally agree with you,

          halstea 09/04/18 9:26 AM Reply


    • I suspect both Easter and Meydan have messed things up this year. I am sure in the past the Lincoln was a week after Meydan (and definitely a week after the Irish Lincoln) but they switched it this year. Than you would have had the GN meeting last weekend. Likewise almost certain Craven meeting was ran this week not the next last year.

      Nick Mazur 09/04/18 9:29 AM Reply


      • Albeit by accident I think that the lack of flat meetings has worked out well based upon the ground conditions. If the rain does stop for more than a day we will get some good ground and even some sunshine and we can get on with the flat. But first we have Aintree. There does seem to be much of an ante post market for the three days, even for the Grand National. I know it is not Cheltenham but the ante post markets appear very quiet to me.

        martin colwell 09/04/18 10:19 AM Reply


  • A couple of pokes in the 2.50 Ludlow on free post, it being a 3m handicap chase…
    Goohar / According To Harry , 1 point on each…
    https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2018/04/09/free-daily-post-09-04-18-tipsx2/
    Josh

    Josh 09/04/18 9:45 AM Reply


  • Following the post about tipping in the comment section I thought I start fresh and track everything from today on here.

    2:50 Ludlow:
    Shortlist is According to Harry/Western Climate/Uhlan Bute
    Don’t like going as short as Western Climate is at the time of posting (3/1) so I will mark him off. For the other two; According to Harry looks the more promising having been respected over C&D last spring. He did not end the season particularly well so will need a revival of that run last spring if he is to have a chance today. Is able at today’s trip and going will provide no issues, the pace is a plenty today but he has the stamina to win. Uhlan Bute performed well over C&D in February finishing 4th behind Goohar but till has a lot of questions about stamina over the trip. Could well perform here but the one niggle I have is his lack of results over fences having produced on 1 win in 22 starts. He may prove me wrong today but I can’t see it given the quality in the race.

    Tips:
    0.5 pt EW – According to Harry (10/1 gen)
    (if you want a possible saver on Western Climate but it won’t be included in my results)

    Looking at the 4:45 Kempton right no so be back with my selections for that race

    Chris M 09/04/18 12:22 PM Reply


    • 4:45 Kempton:

      Shortlist – Loves Destination/Kentford Heiress/Grace Tara/Little Millie/ Timeforben
      Seems a tough race to pick (which may be an indication to not tip but I like a challenge). The shortlist above could have been bigger but 2 or 3 more but narrowed it down for final thoughts.

      Loves Destination; trip may be of concern as not 100% convinced she can stay this distance, we are a drop in class for her return to C&D so that may help. Kentford Heiress; back up in trip today from a nice win Newton Abbot, has performed admirably both recent attempts at similar trips. Could improve with the drop in class today. Grace Tara; switched back to hurdles today after a tough time over fences but looked promising LTO at Bangor before clouting a fence. Has won in this sphere before and could provide another win today. Little Millie; like the look of this unexposed mare, has some great PTP form over trip and going. Had a wind op prior to the last race and did not see much of that race, could surprise today with improving form from the wind op and first time cheekpieces. Timeforben; like little millie he has 3m PTP form but under rules has yet to really make his mark. Last three over hurdles did not show much positive but the step back up in trip may improve recent form.

      Selections:
      0.5 pt EW – Kentford Heiress (16/1 Betfred)
      0.5pt EW – Grace Tara (16/1 Lads)
      0.5pt EW – Little Millie (14/1 Lads)
      Note: Lads, Coral, Betfred paying 4 places

      Lets see how these do.

      Chris M 09/04/18 2:44 PM Reply


      • Little disappointing that the two winners of the races I chose were in my shortlists only for me to discard them but its also a positive that I can realise the real winner but need to hone the final selection process.

        However 3 UP but a nice BOG 20/1 place for Kentford Heiress means its only a 1.5 pt loss today. On to tomorrow where I have 3 races to look at.

        Chris M 09/04/18 5:02 PM Reply


      • Well done Chris. didn’t back any but 10/1 and 12/1 sure some people just backed them all.

        Jason B 09/04/18 5:04 PM Reply


  • Venetia is back. A treble already today and they are hacking up!

    martin colwell 09/04/18 3:05 PM Reply


    • David Pipe with a quick fire double too with his other runner so far today beaten into 2nd (behind Uhlan Bute).
      After seeing his second runner today run so well (Miss Tynte hack up) I thought Timeforben at Kempton was worth a few £s so went in @16s and voila another Pipe runner runs very well today to win.
      Sometimes this game is instinctive without any form reading at all 🙂

      gallou 09/04/18 5:03 PM Reply


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